2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[turbobrick240]

Sorry, but none of those numbers are accurate. The capacity factor is based on a 24 hour day first of all. And if you can't afford one $25-30k EV, why do you expect to need to charge two? There are cheaper battery storage options than a Powerwall, but you really don't need batteries if you have a grid connection. With third world like grid service, you're an ideal candidate for solar/wind. I assume you already have a backup generator that gets used frequently.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

I need extra capacity to compensate for solar's miserable 20% CF and the fact that I often need to drive hundreds of miles on back to back days. My backup generators are TDIs with 12V DC to 120V AC inverters, if I got an electric car then I'd need a big diesel generator.

 

[jmodge]

Electric cars were very popular when I was a kid. There were two places within walking distance you could rent one or bring your own to race on a multi lane track, not to mention the track in our basement. Alas, history repeated itself and the electric car fad faded away, I miss electric cars Now I just stick with the old dependable historic standby, LONG LIVE DIESELS

 

[turbobrick240]

I need extra capacity to compensate for solar's miserable 20% CF and the fact that I often need to drive hundreds of miles on back to back days. My backup generators are TDIs with 12V DC to 120V AC inverters, if I got an electric car then I'd need a big diesel generator.

The capacity factor isn't a problem when you can get a pallet of mono-crystalline panels that last 25-30 years for dirt cheap. Of course you still need a property with an area that has some decent sun exposure. I typically use my car as the backup power too. Not worth dragging out the 6kW genset for half a day. I only lose power a few times per year, fortunately.

 

[nwdiver]

TDIs

Why have 2 TDIs? Or why would you replace both? Why not 1 TDI for the rare occasion you need to drive 'hundreds of miles back to back' which also corresponds with a power outage and an EV for the other ~99.99% of miles?

 

[gmenounos]

Someone needs to sell their Tesla, replace it with a TDI, then go into EV forums and sidetrack all their threads by telling them The Future Is Fueloil, ad nauseum. What's the over/under on the tolerance that commenter would receive?

Even though I've owned a TDI for over 20 years, I didn't buy it because I had some innate love for the diesel engine. I bought it because I had just started a longer commute and wanted to save some money on gas. I also figured it was better for the environment. And I grew to like the car a lot, enough that 14 years ago I bought another one. But when it became time to replace one of the TDIs, I bought an EV, because I believe that is the future. At some point when I can't keep the Golf running anymore, I'll probably get another EV, but until then I'm happy with one TDI and one EV, and like probably a few others here, I don't mind also hearing about EVs (at least in threads with "EV" in the title). Like TDIs, they're cheap to fuel and have good torque.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

vrs

I thought she got booted? Or was it just temporary?

The slightest mention of electric.... guaranteed there it goes

 

[turbobrick240]

Global demand for EVs is growing:

Demand for electric cars is booming, with sales expected to leap 35% this year after a record-breaking 2022 - News - IEA

Demand for electric cars is booming, with sales expected to leap 35% this year after a record-breaking 2022 - News from the International Energy Agency

www.iea.org

 

[Andyinchville1]

yeah i just wish those could actually be used in modern diesels w/ DPF. From what I understand biofuel is a no go at all in those situations. When my lease is up on the P2 in 23 months and counting down, I'm going for a 2018 BMW 328D XDrive. I looked into making my own biodiesel and every thing i read basically said if I'm emissions equipment intact on this, or a golf or etc, it will just kill the emissions components.

Can any of you diesel gearheads comment on this? If I could find a reliable source of Syn Diesel, or bio-diesel that would work for my application I'd be running towards it in due time.

I have looked into making bio diesel from veggie oil but my lo tech brain cannot figure that all out ..... I'd be more along the lines all mechanical engine (or at least non common rail) burning W85 as an additive (85% Waste oil 15% gas mixed and centrifuged ).

I think that would be easier to do BUT I have heard through burning old tires / plastics in a distillation tower a person can make actual Diesel and other fractions ( I would love to be able to buy a system to do that (they actually sell them ) BUT big $$,,
(pyrolysis I think is the process name).

Andrew

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Why have 2 TDIs? Or why would you replace both? Why not 1 TDI for the rare occasion you need to drive 'hundreds of miles back to back' which also corresponds with a power outage and an EV for the other ~99.99% of miles?

2nd TDI is a spare. I've researched electric cars and for my application they won't work.

 

[gulfcoastguy]

Even though I've owned a TDI for over 20 years, I didn't buy it because I had some innate love for the diesel engine. I bought it because I had just started a longer commute and wanted to save some money on gas. I also figured it was better for the environment. And I grew to like the car a lot, enough that 14 years ago I bought another one. But when it became time to replace one of the TDIs, I bought an EV, because I believe that is the future. At some point when I can't keep the Golf running anymore, I'll probably get another EV, but until then I'm happy with one TDI and one EV, and like probably a few others here, I don't mind also hearing about EVs (at least in threads with "EV" in the title). Like TDIs, they're cheap to fuel and have good torque.

Especially in a subforum labeled General Automotive. A question could be asked about discussing VW TDI’s when a subforum devoted to VW automotive exists:

 

[jmodge]

0A359463-A744-4DB6-B682-150297B9D40A.jpeg

• jmodge
• Jun 4, 2023

EV

Here is what I believe is an EV, son took the pic in Amsterdam. Not likely to see anything like this in our country. It would be the ticket for traveling in town, maybe someday, but not by 2032 in this country. Supply and demand is the main driving force. Nowhere I go do I see or hear 2/3 of the crowd demanding EV’s, irregardless of what a media story may say. Doubt it will get there in 9 years, Definitely more than one of three people I know are not getting an EV.

 

[turbobrick240]

EV sales rose to 62% of market share in Sweden last month. Diesel sales have absolutely cratered there over the last few years.

Sweden Hits 62% Plugin EV Market Share In May, Tesla Model Y High - CleanTechnica

Plugin electric vehicles saw strong growth in market share in Sweden, taking 61.9% of the market, from 47.5% in May 2022. Sweden Tesla High!

cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org

And 89% of new cars sold in Norway last month came with a charging port:

Tesla Model Y outsells 2nd place ID.4 by 4x in Norway, 97% electrified in May

Monthly Norwegian auto sales numbers are in, showing once again how heavily dominant EVs are in the country, with one...

electrek.co

.

 

[x1800MODMY360x]

One reason I won't get an EV. I ask my Uncle who is a Paramedic Firefighter, If the fire doesn't kill you, it's the toxic fumes that will.

1 Week for EV Fire to be put out!

 

[turbobrick240]

One reason I won't get an EV. I ask my Uncle who is a Paramedic Firefighter, If the fire doesn't kill you, it's the toxic fumes that will.

1 Week for EV Fire to be put out!

If you're under 50, you'll own an EV. You just don't realize it yet.

 

[jmodge]

I don’t live in Sweden, Norway, or by what news stories tell me. Until I actually see it happening, it’s just projections or marketing. Anyone can think they know what the future is. I don’t see anywhere near even 3% EV’s wherever I go. I spot one on rare occasion in a parking lot or on the road. Go out and start counting EV’s, I would be surprised if your results will mirror what this thread is about

 

[dieseldonato]

Just on general observation driving around my area, you see a few ev's nothing even close to 1/3 of the vehicles, I'd bet I see more hybrids then pure ev on any given day, and even the hybrids arnt that many. By comparison to a few years ago, where a Tesla stuck out like a sore thumb, it's definatly more common to see ev now, but still rare enough you notice them driving by.

 

[turbobrick240]

Have Swedes conquered the cold weather problem for EVs, or do they just hibernate for the winter now?

The Norwegians conquered it, then the Swedes just looked over and realized it was no big thing.

 

[ekincaid]

Toyota has stated they will be getting out of EV.

Seems like that isn't the case.... Here is what is happening in NC.

MSN

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Was looking at some Ford sales stats the other day, despite all the PR about EV sales taking off they're still a single digit percentage of Ford sales and plug in hybrids are selling better. What's worrisome is that automakers are betting billions on electrification- Between them Ford and GM will have the capacity to build a couple million EVs a year. If electrification doesn't take off, and I see no signs it is, the automakers are facing billions of dollars in debt for EV factories and tooling that's barely being used. Clearly more conservative planning is needed- Looking at the underside of my Golf 7 it's obvious it was designed for IC, hybrid, or EV power- Why did VW waste billions to bring their slow selling "ID" EVs to market?

 

[turbobrick240]

The ID4 is selling quite well in Europe. I also live in a rural area where electrification of the auto fleet is in the very early stages. I wouldn't ignore global and national trends just because the transition is slower in my little corner of the world, though. It's hard to see much of anything with your head buried in the sand.

Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023

The numbers show the Tesla Model Y was the best-selling car in the world for the first quarter of 2023.

www.motor1.com

 

[gulfcoastguy]

They are selling all of the ID4s that they can make. Unfortunately they were very vulnerable to supply chain disruption by the Ukrainian war( wiring harness) . VW opened production in Chattanooga about 10 months ago so the situation should slowly improve.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

That "head in the sand" stereotyping cannot go unchallenged. I follow the stats pretty closely and while electrics are dominating some markets, it's often because they're heavily subsidized and suit the market. But even with favorable market characteristics, some are selling poorly- For example the EV version of the Transit isn't even going in 10% of Transits, despite being almost a free upcharge and many Transits used in ideal urban environments and owned by government bodies that want to go EV. Same with the Mach E and F150 EV- Despite a lot of PR, the Mach E is one of Ford's slower selling SUVs and the EV version of the F150 isn't take a big share of F150 sales. The ID4 in this market is VW's 2nd worst selling SUV, edged out of last place only by the useless Atlas "Sport", with U.S. dealer deliveries running only about 40K a year.

As for on the ground observations, my rural county of 25K still has maybe a dozen electrics, and most of them plug in hybrids. Despite having Tesla chargers we don't see many. But on a trip to Minneapolis today I saw too many Teslas to count and not one but two Rivians. But the only ID4s I saw were in a VW dealers back lot...

 

[turbobrick240]

I bet there are many more than a dozen or so EVs in your county. The ID4s also don't jump out at you like the Teslas, Rivians, and Taycans do. I've only seen one Rivian in Maine that I can remember, but hundreds of Teslas(see them every day now), a few Taycans, and quite a few Hyundai, Kia, and ID4 EVs. The F150 Lightning will sell massively this decade. I think it will outsell the Cybertruck, in fact.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Dug up the updated data and they show 25 as of first of the year, but they don't break out EVs from PHEVs. Looking at the rural counties of Minnesota southwest of Mankato, with a population of about 160,000 we have only about 200 EVs and PHEVs. I remember 10 years ago when the first EV was sold in this area and for those 10 years I'be been repeatedly told that EV sales were about to take off. Yet a decade in and EVs including PHEVs are nowhere near 1% of the vehicle fleet. This strongly suggest that EVs will never become dominate here like they may in the cities after a decade or three of IC scrapage. If anything, we may see a cutback in EV investment out here as sponsoring agencies figure out how many actual EVs are using their $100+K charging stations, I wouldn't be surprised if in some cases it would have been cheaper to give the user an IC car instead of putting in a charging station for their EV.

 

[nwdiver]

If anything, we may see a cutback in EV investment out here as sponsoring agencies figure out how many actual EVs are using their $100+K charging stations, I wouldn't be surprised if in some cases it would have been cheaper to give the user an IC car instead of putting in a charging station for their EV.

Those '$100+k charging stations' generally aren't for people that live there especially in rural areas where a higher percentage of people live in single family homes. It would be silly for those people to not just charge at home with a charger that cost ~$500 instead of $100,000. They're there to encourage people to visit that area. I helped a McDs owner install charging stations at 3 of his restaurants. He doesn't charge anything to charge. Why? Because it encourages people to go eat there; he gives away $1 in electricity and they buy a $40 meal for the family. Everyone wins except the oil companies and Ruzzia.

Fast chargers serve a similar function. The objective isn't to make money. It's to attract business. Gas stations work in a similar way. That's why Costco sells gas so cheap. It brings people into their stores. According to this article Costco actually sells gas at a loss.

 

[turbobrick240]

Dug up the updated data and they show 25 as of first of the year, but they don't break out EVs from PHEVs. Looking at the rural counties of Minnesota southwest of Mankato, with a population of about 160,000 we have only about 200 EVs and PHEVs. I remember 10 years ago when the first EV was sold in this area and for those 10 years I'be been repeatedly told that EV sales were about to take off. Yet a decade in and EVs including PHEVs are nowhere near 1% of the vehicle fleet. This strongly suggest that EVs will never become dominate here like they may in the cities after a decade or three of IC scrapage.

Damn, I didn't realize MN has like 100 counties! Some pretty colorful names too. Anyhow, just looking at a backwater county in Maine or Minnesota (or even the entire state) is pretty myopic. The change is happening all around us, and it won't be long before it comes to our towns. You'll come to love your EV. Mark my words.

 

[dieseldonato]

I bet there are many more than a dozen or so EVs in your county. The ID4s also don't jump out at you like the Teslas, Rivians, and Taycans do. I've only seen one Rivian in Maine that I can remember, but hundreds of Teslas(see them every day now), a few Taycans, and quite a few Hyundai, Kia, and ID4 EVs. The F150 Lightning will sell massively this decade. I think it will outsell the Cybertruck, in fact.

The f150 lightning is a terrible bad joke of a pickup truck. Even with the largest battery it can barely manage a load of groceries, let alone anything close to its claimed payload without a generator hooked up to it. There have been, many, many reviews on this fatal flaw. It's not taking any market my storm out side of the soccer dad that is trying to virtue signal his manliness. Even the gm hummer ev can manage to go farther with weight behind it, and it's range is pathetic.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

Hybrids seem to make more sense for us when the wife had to have one. 2019 Prius prime = 50 - 60 mpg hybrid mode. The daily use is within the full EV charge usually, pay bills, runaround, etc... The below are the numbers. In summery

1- $.07 to $.17 a kWh on 110v @ home (full charge 4 hrs)
2- 5 kWh charge storage = 25 to 40 miles = $.35 to $.85 full charge
3- @ $5 a gallon RUG @ 25 to 40 miles = apx. say 1/2 gallon = $2.50
4- equal driving = $2.50 hybrid/
$aves apx $1.65 to $2.15 for 25 to 40 miles


The numbers are way different for a friend who lives in the bay area with a less efficient RAV4. He pays 3 to 5 times the kWh, needs more electrons per mile. This is uncle sams foot in the door to the majority of EV users who are urban @ skyrocketing electric prices. He has found it WAY more cost effection to never plug it in and go hybrid only. Even IF he wanted to leave it blocks away to charge while at work, he has found that the (2 available) spots are more often than not used by other patrons as full day free parking.

Would never own a full EV though. Whole other subject. Ever try to ask hybrid questions on an EV site? Holy xxxx pucker up and run.

 

[turbobrick240]

The f150 lightning is a terrible bad joke of a pickup truck. Even with the largest battery it can barely manage a load of groceries, let alone anything close to its claimed payload without a generator hooked up to it. There have been, many, many reviews on this fatal flaw. It's not taking any market my storm out side of the soccer dad that is trying to virtue signal his manliness. Even the gm hummer ev can manage to go farther with weight behind it, and it's range is pathetic.

Like any new platform, there are bugs to work out. I'm confident it will do well for Ford. People don't buy 1/2 ton pickups for heavy towing duty anyhow. Most of them do amazingly little work that a Golf couldn't do.