2/3rds EVs by 2032... Realistic? (and time to horde diesels?)

[gearheadgrrrl]

Proposed regulation, meet the law of unintended consequences...

I kinda like EVs, the instant torque and mechanical simplicity could be addicting. But like a lot of folks, TVs won't work for me, doubt they'll work 9 years from now, and TVs may never work for a lot of us. OK, 1/3 of new cars can still be ICs in 2032, but they may not be cheaper and more available as IC cars are now. Remember the CAFE standards, when automakers offered lotsa cheap high MPG cars because they averaged out the highly profitable has guzzlers? Automakers have no problem selling luxury EVs, it's the goal of a low priced EV that scares them, especially when the required volumes of EVs further strain the battery supply and kill any volume reductions in battery cost. For Porsche this won't be a problem, but Ford is already losing $3,000,000,000 a year on electrics and offsets those losses with profits from IC pickups and SUVs.

Performance IC cars are already a sellers market, good luck buying a Vette, 911. or even a Golf R for MSRP. What happens when IC car supply is limited, people panic buy and horde them, and nobody wants to sell their IC car and be stuck with the limitations of an EV?

 

[turbobrick240]

2032 is still a way off. Look at what has happened with AI (think chatGPT) over the last year. The technology landscape will probably change in ways we can barely comprehend by '32. I say enjoy driving whatever you like in the meantime.

 

[CleverUserName]

You will be renting a car after 2030 anyway. Word on the street is “You’ll own nothing and be happy”.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

I have noted that trend. I'm not happy about it... I worked my way to the middle class by buying houses and cars cheap and running them into the ground and then some!

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Got 2 newer cars, but still have a Golf 4 TDI in the driveway 'case I need it. Paid $40K for a spacious earth sheltered home, costs almost nothing to heat, run the AC once a year to make sure it works, built in the 80s so it's up to code and maintenance costs have been near nothing. Paid cash for it because I'd lived the previous 14 years in a tiny house in da hood, made some DIY repairs, wood stoves for heat, a tall fence to keep the hoodlums out, and 2 miles from my union jobs= $$$ saved to buy my current house in the country!

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

Proposed regulation, meet the law of unintended consequences...
I kinda like EVs, the instant torque and mechanical simplicity could be addicting. But like a lot of folks, TVs won't work for me, doubt they'll work 9 years from now, and TVs may never work for a lot of us.

"unintended consequences" great summery. Toyota has stated they will be getting out of EV. The "real carbon footprint" is worse than my still running great old idi diesel. Lets just say, EVs have proven "greener than thou," in many ways.

Bought a plug in hybrid (PHV). Purchased for the reason of 25 mile plug in range. It takes 5kW and cost .7 to .18 cents per kW (depending) to charge (home 110v) for a day of around town driving. Its purely utilitarian and a soulless car.

Reality is "the new deal" is and will push us backwards while not seeing how counter-intuitive their pie in the sky electrical fantasy is. The powers to be are snickering at how the remaining middle class will "own nothing and be happy" in our 15 minute towns. May sound 1984ish to some, but truely showing evidence at lightning speeds. Just as has so many other "conspiracies."

Just sayin

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Not being a member of an "organized political party" I can attest that my local Democratic Party doesn't allow more than one vehicle in their parade unit to avoid displaying their lack of organizational skills... So this "Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM)" is more the work of sincere but too trusting ideologies at EPA than an organized conspiracy. Besides, if it were an organized conspiracy it might actually work... But that's too much to expect from EPA staffers with advanced degrees in everything but engineering trying to live on six figure salaries. Doubt their grad school education include the EPA's history of unintended consequences like the gas shortages of the 70s, manufacturers moving to bigger vehicles to game EPA regulations, and the 2007 and 2010 truck standards that spawned a horde of hackers whose hacks hobbled diesels to the point they polluted more than pre-2007 diesels! Yup, the same EPA who sent a couple hundred thousand TDIs to the scrap heap while turning a blind eye to the older diesels that polluted even worse. After all these failed EPA "conspiracies", I don't expect EPA will pull this one off either...

 

[John Wesley Hardin]

The Green new Deal huh? Maybe a good idea with the EV , maybe not. The battery technology is not here yet. Probably will be in the near future. What about air travel ? Why hasnt anybody talked about that ? Anyone seen a map of the United states of Commercial air traffic ? Thousands of flights daily. Jet airliners crossing the Country. You cant even see the U.S. , its completely covered with air traffic. No problem here. Just a little ole fuel called kerosene fouling the atmosphere. Isnt kerosene similar to diesel ? The biggest cause of pollution and green house gases is Commercial aviation.

 

[turbobrick240]

Gasoline accounted for about 58% of fossil fuels used for transportation in the US in '21. Diesel about 24%, and jet fuel about 11%.

Use of energy for transportation - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Types and amounts of energy sources used for transportation in the United States.

www.eia.gov

.

 

[John Wesley Hardin]

Gasoline accounted for about 58% of fossil fuels used for transportation in the US in '21. Diesel about 24%, and jet fuel about 11%.

Use of energy for transportation - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Types and amounts of energy sources used for transportation in the United States.

www.eia.gov

.

Well I thought it was . Maybe the Feds will help me by a plane ?

 

[turbodieseldyke]

The Green new Deal huh?

They call it green, but it looks and smells brown.

 

[John Wesley Hardin]

They call it green, but it looks and smells brown.

Lets call it The Brown Eye Deal

 

[turbobrick240]

Well I thought it was . Maybe the Feds will help me by a plane ?

Just join the Air National Guard and you can fly them on the governments dime. Stay away from weirdos on Discord though. That can get you the iron bar deal.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

I think Pelosi is vegan

 

[turbodieseldyke]

The Like button needs a vomit emoji.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Lets keep it civil- this is a discussion about cars and public policy. Those wishing to share their strange sexual fantasies can find plenty of other places on the internet for that...

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

This proposed regulation isn't attracting much opposition, which means the Biden administration will probably adopt it and even if he isn't re-elected, by 2025 the whole industry will be set on course to produce 2/3rds EVs and they're unlikely to turn back. Low price EVs being unprofitable and the volume of profitable IC cars limited, I suspect many manufacturers will simply drop low priced models completely- In 2032 the cheapest new car may be $50,000 and U.S. sales may drop below 10 million.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

One of the aspects of regulation that's been ignored is how it can strengthen the market power of the largest companies- For example, in the market for large trucks we actually had over a dozen manufacturers before the failed "121" ant-lock brake debacle of 1975. Chrysler (Dodge trucks) and Diamond Red dropped out of the market largely as a result of that regulation. In the mid 90s, seeing the tightening emissions regulations of 2004, 2007, and 2010 coming Ford sold their heavy truck operation to Daimler and a few years later Renault and their Mack division sold out to Volvo for the same reason. Cat pulled out of the truck engine market in response to the 2010 standards, soon followed by International. So we now have only 4 surviving heavy truck makers and new truck prices have shot up while options have diminished- Daimler bought Detroit Diesel and won't share their engines with other makers and Cummins is only available as an option on some makes to fill holes in their engine lineup. Three of these four truck makers dominate the EU market and used the Euro 6 regulations as an excuse to price fix and were caught at it, unfortunately they were never brought to justice here. What happens when we have only 4 automakers left?

 

[John Wesley Hardin]

This proposed regulation isn't attracting much opposition, which means the Biden administration will probably adopt it and even if he isn't re-elected, by 2025 the whole industry will be set on course to produce 2/3rds EVs and they're unlikely to turn back. Low price EVs being unprofitable and the volume of profitable IC cars limited, I suspect many manufacturers will simply drop low priced models completely- In 2032 the cheapest new car may be $50,000 and U.S. sales may drop below 10 million.

One of the aspects of regulation that's been ignored is how it can strengthen the market power of the largest companies- For example, in the market for large trucks we actually had over a dozen manufacturers before the failed "121" ant-lock brake debacle of 1975. Chrysler (Dodge trucks) and Diamond Red dropped out of the market largely as a result of that regulation. In the mid 90s, seeing the tightening emissions regulations of 2004, 2007, and 2010 coming Ford sold their heavy truck operation to Daimler and a few years later Renault and their Mack division sold out to Volvo for the same reason. Cat pulled out of the truck engine market in response to the 2010 standards, soon followed by International. So we now have only 4 surviving heavy truck makers and new truck prices have shot up while options have diminished- Daimler bought Detroit Diesel and won't share their engines with other makers and Cummins is only available as an option on some makes to fill holes in their engine lineup. Three of these four truck makers dominate the EU market and used the Euro 6 regulations as an excuse to price fix and were caught at it, unfortunately they were never brought to justice here. What happens when we have only 4 automakers left?

I remember when you could get a used car or truck for $500.00. Even in South Texas now people are asking 3500.00 and up for a piece of crap F-150. I did quite well though in San Antonio when I bought a 1995 Dodge Laramie 4x4 with a brush guard headache rack tool box and heavy rubber mat bedliner. When I drove up to the owners house .. uh I mean mansion we hit it off quite well. I layed on the drive way looked under the truck and said Theres a lotta red dirt under here. In a slow Southern drawl He said well we used it out at the ranch from time to time. I said, Well I could sure use a Ranch, better yet I said could use an oil well. He goes Well we gotta couple of those out there too. What a great experience , Great Gentleman.

 

[gearheadgrrrl]

Interesting story from one of the biggest farm co-ops, Cenex Harvest States- They think ethanol demand will shrink while biodiesel demand will grow: https://www.cooperativeownership.co...UkE31zYyLjAq5F9i7CpAQ4Iy6s6a4ddkg11UcikApzRHo Sounds like the Diesel engine is far from dead!

 

[Steve Addy]

I have thought about this for some time, and you'll notice that new EPA emissions regulations are severe...thank you EPA.

The new emissions will however not have the desired effect....it's more govt pushing on a string, people will not be herded into EV's and I predict that maintenance shops will get a big boost as owners retain older vehicles not subject to the new emissions standards.

My biggest worry is that govt will go after parts manufacturers and eliminating certain parts will cause problems. There are workarounds but those would make ownership more difficult but not impossible.

Watch what they do and take what they say with suspicion.

Steve

 

[turbodieseldyke]

Interesting story from one of the biggest farm co-ops, Cenex Harvest States- They think ethanol demand will shrink while biodiesel demand will grow:

There never was market demand for ethanol. It was always driven by govt, which is driven by lobbyists. As long as Big Corn has the govt teet in a wringer, there will be demands for ethanol.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

Sounds like the Diesel engine is far from dead!

I hope your right. There is no other REAL alternative for the trucking industry, yet anyway. Along with increasing restrictions and laws, try even finding a shop that will even work on these here in Ca.

 

[JELLOWSUBMARINE]

There never was market demand for ethanol. It was always driven by govt, which is driven by lobbyists. As long as Big Corn has the govt teet in a wringer, there will be demands for ethanol.

Unintended consequences again. EPA for ya
ethanol is has huge use in high compression performance engines (N0x spewing)

 

[wxman]

I've been looking over the "Draft Regulatory Impact Assessment" to the Proposed Rule "Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles." It's quite obvious that we've reached diminishing returns with respect to criteria pollutants like PM2.5.

According to the DRIA, "...The LMDV [Light/Medium Duty Vehicle] regulatory scenario would decrease annual average PM2.5 concentrations by an average of 0.01 μg/m3 in 2055, with a maximum decrease of 0.16 μg/m3 and a maximum increase of 0.27 μg/m3...." The air quality standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5 (annual) is 12.0 μg/m3. Thus, only maximum decrease and maximum increase would be significant (barely); the average over the entire country is nonsignificant. This is true even if "onroad-only" scenario is considered.

The projections for ozone in 2055 are the same, nonsignificant changes except for max decrease/increase.

Other criteria pollutants and some air toxics like acetaldehyde are not reduced significantly in 2055 based on map results, even though the results are not explicitly specified.

There are also no provisions in the rule for the handling of biofuels and/or synthetic fuels ("efuels") in GHG emission calculations, that I can see.
Since non-fossil fuels could be just as effective in reducing GHG emissions from traffic, if not more so, these non-fossil fuels should be included in the Rule, in my opinion, and I plan to submit comments to that effect.

 

[Nuje]

Don't you get the feeling there's gonna be some kind of loophole / carveout that'll allow for something very much like the status quo to continue?

Like, back whenever, wasn't it mandated that "cars" had achieve fuel economy targets of something like 40mpg? So the auto makers went, "ummmm, yeah, sure - we'll do that for "cars", but oh, by the way, wouldn't you rather be driving this big honkin' SUV on which we have some massive rebates (and which we're building on something approaching a truck chassis, so it doesn't count against our car mpg targets)?"

So, come 2032, there's probably gonna be a carveout for goods transportation or "work vehicles" or something like that; and so the manufacturers re-shape those Amazon delivery vans and the like into kid-haulers.

 

[Daemon64]

Interesting story from one of the biggest farm co-ops, Cenex Harvest States- They think ethanol demand will shrink while biodiesel demand will grow: https://www.cooperativeownership.co...UkE31zYyLjAq5F9i7CpAQ4Iy6s6a4ddkg11UcikApzRHo Sounds like the Diesel engine is far from dead!

yeah i just wish those could actually be used in modern diesels w/ DPF. From what I understand biofuel is a no go at all in those situations. When my lease is up on the P2 in 23 months and counting down, I'm going for a 2018 BMW 328D XDrive. I looked into making my own biodiesel and every thing i read basically said if I'm emissions equipment intact on this, or a golf or etc, it will just kill the emissions components.

Can any of you diesel gearheads comment on this? If I could find a reliable source of Syn Diesel, or bio-diesel that would work for my application I'd be running towards it in due time.

 

[turbobrick240]

I've yet to see renewable diesel for sale in the NE, but it is a biofuel diesel that is fully compatible with modern emissions and fuel injection systems. Unfortunately, it's not something the typical hobbyist is going to be able to cook up out in their garage. It has just recently surpassed FAME biodiesel production in the US, so probably will be available in most regions before too long.

 

[Daemon64]

I've yet to see renewable diesel for sale in the NE, but it is a biofuel diesel that is fully compatible with modern emissions and fuel injection systems. Unfortunately, it's not something the typical hobbyist is going to be able to cook up out in their garage. It has just recently surpassed FAME biodiesel production in the US, so probably will be available in most regions before too long.

I was looking it up at the worst formulation of it its 60 gCO2e/MJ and at it's best it's 20 gCO2e/MJ but standard #2 diesel is around double that. So like that's a significant reduction in pollution no matter which way you looked at it. Also considering the p2 is around 110g / mi co2 when you count grid mix and around 220g / mi w/ standard #2 in a 328d xdrive, switching it to renewable diesel would bring it pretty close to the P2 running on grid mix in my state since my state runs a ton of natural gas. That's pretty awesome. I hope they bring it here when I get the bmw

 

[turbodieseldyke]

So like that's a significant reduction in pollution no matter which way you looked at it.

Except CO2 isn't a pollutant. It's plant food.