Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

[nwdiver]

Initial purchase costs and home charger installation costs are still the killers today..... until these drop and or incentives increase to overcome these and the accelerated depreciation in the initial few years (3-5), EVs will always be more costly to own vs an efficient dyno juice powered vehicle.

Cost of ownership parity is about ~4 years and ICE has been depreciating faster than EVs recently. I could sell my 2012 MS for $30k which is absolutely insane for a 8 y/o car with 185k miles on it. I'd be lucky to get $10k for a similar ICE. I sold my 2003 TDI for $3k with roughly the same miles on it... that's a ~85% depreciation vs 70% for the MS. Taking into account the used car market has gone bonkers I still think it's crazy that the used model 3 I bought in February for ~$37k is now going for ~$47k.

Home charging costs are ~$500. You're going to save that much in fuel costs in the first year not to mention the convenience of refueling at home.

 

[TurboABA]

Nothing I've ever seen coincides with what you're saying for the typical driver\consumer......

Example.... (econoboxes too... stuff like Tesla)

EV vs. Gas: Which Cars Are Cheaper to Own?

We use data and simple math to attempt to answer this very complicated question, and in the process find both enlightenment and more questions.

www.caranddriver.com

Most homes are already old as far as infrastructure and electrical service, and just having a higher amperage charger installed would quickly eat up at the potential savings......
If you've already got Solar or Wind "free electricity" supply, that's a different story.....
Up here we don't get nearly enough incentives or renewable install options to make it work.... I'm sure it's better in some areas, but not here. (so you're forced to rely on grid power or charging stations)

I'm not knocking your EV, but like most Solar enthusiasts, I believe your perception is skewed by the great potential and promises of the technology.... until initial costs drop significantly, it doesn't work out economically once all factors are taken into consideration.

 

[TurboABA]

An interesting report that's a little more recent.....

Honda is tops for lowest repair costs, while EV bills are double those of gas cars

How much a vehicle costs in its first three months can indicate how much you'll spend down the road

driving.ca

 

[TurboABA]

The most cost effective EV I can buy in my area is a "crappy"
Hyundai IONIQ electric

This will run me about $42k and I'll get $5k back in incentives.
Let's assume that I already didn't have 2 TDIs in the driveway (read free as of this typing) and I needed a "new vehicle".
For a lot less than $42k, I could buy a new fuel efficient ICE unit. (let's say a Jetta for 1/2 that price)
I drive roughly 30k kms a year.
What do you think this EV will be worth in 6-10 years (if it even lasts that long)? Do you see how it's hard to justify going EV for the savings?

 

[nwdiver]

An interesting report that's a little more recent.....

Honda is tops for lowest repair costs, while EV bills are double those of gas cars

How much a vehicle costs in its first three months can indicate how much you'll spend down the road

driving.ca

Did you read past the headline? The labor cost per hour is 2x for an EV vs ICE which is to be expected since EVs are newer, more advanced and require more specialized skill. But if it requires 90% fewer hours of repair/maintenance then it's still cheaper even at 2x the cost per hour.

I bought a used Model 3 for $37500. Let's say I could have bought a comparable ICE for $30,000. The 5 year fuel and maintenance cost of a Honda accord is ~$11k based on 15k miles per year. That's 75k miles. The Model 3 would consume ~18.7MWh over 75k miles costing ~$1870 and requires no maintenance over a 5 year period (tires is a separate category for both). So after 5 years I'd be ahead by ~$1630.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

The one insight I got from that article is that ownership costs will vary widely based on how someone pays for the car, where they live, their insurance costs, where they charge, etc. Odds are most owners won't know if they're saving money or not, because it has to answer the question, "compared to what?" And that will vary, too. People can throw numbers around all day, but I think my observation is that, for most people, EV operating costs may well be similar to an equivalent ICE vehicle costs, at this time. And those costs may change, either up or down.

Although I hear them say otherwise, I doubt anyone buys an EV to save money. There are much less expensive ways to get around, although they may not be as pleasant or trendy.

 

[nwdiver]

Although I hear them say otherwise, I doubt anyone buys an EV to save money. There are much less expensive ways to get around, although they may not be as pleasant or trendy.

I agree there is more of a psychological component to it. I just completed a 800 mile trip to Taos that cost me $0 because there were free public chargers I was able to use. $16 in diesel might be a rounding error compared to the cost of an EV but it's not compared to $0

I don't see how EV operating costs could go up especially as renewables expand. The amount of curtailment is going to increase exponentially. More curtailment means more energy utilities will be more than happy to sell for next to nothing instead of wasting it. Solar covered parking with cheap or free EV charging may become a common public amenity no different than parking lots, sidewalks and restrooms.

 

[TurboABA]

Higher maintenance costs are higher regardless of "why"..... my wallet doesn't care if whatever I'm driving costs more to maintain because I service it at the dealership vs me wrenching on it myself..... the cost impact is the bottom line.

 

[nwdiver]

Higher maintenance costs are higher regardless of "why"..... my wallet doesn't care if whatever I'm driving costs more to maintain because I service it at the dealership vs me wrenching on it myself..... the cost impact is the bottom line.

Then you should definitely want an EV. My Tesla hasn't seen a service center in over 4 years. What costs more? 1 visit for $500 or 6 visits for $250 each?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I agree there is more of a psychological component to it. I just completed a 800 mile trip to Taos that cost me $0 because there were free public chargers I was able to use. $16 in diesel might be a rounding error compared to the cost of an EV but it's not compared to $0

And I could make that trip without refueling at all. Depends on what you value.

 

[Poor King]

Love the irony of the thread derailing onto the topic of trains itself. I don't think there will be any funds going to the trains sector. The EV initiative is a 10B private investment, and they will burn our taxes to build an EV infrastructure to guarantee their profit before any considerations towards the crumbling railroads of the country. Also there are too many bridges that need attention.

Far as EV ownership goes with Hyundai's, I do believe they have a 10yr 100,000 mile warranty on their vehicles. I'm still on the fence about Tesla owners. Are they the descendents of Prius owners. Not sure about everyone else, but Im a Carcist. For example I do not like most Nissan owners for whatever reason. And that notion has yet to fail me.

 

[nwdiver]

And I could make that trip without refueling at all. Depends on what you value.

I value getting my energy from renewables. Even more so today given the tragic events in Germany and the PNW.

 

[pkhoury]

What numbers? Either you're getting your electricity for next to nothing or the PV system was over-priced. A DIY PV system can pay for itself in ~3 years. Turnkey is typically ~10. You can DIY a 5kW PV system for <$3k after the FTC. 5kW will produce ~9MWh/yr; @ $0.10/kWh you're saving ~$900/yr ; $3k / $900/yr = 3.3 Years. 9MWh is enough energy to drive >30,000 miles. Even if you get ~50mpg that's ~600 gallons of diesel. So $3k in solar can save ~$1800/yr in diesel if you have an EV.

I bought a used Model 3 for $37,500. I can easily go ~1000 miles with a few charging stops that add up to less than 2 hours. Taking into account breaks most people would take driving an ICE there's really not going to be much if any difference in how long a trip takes unless you're peeing in a bottle while you drive.

I was looking specifically for a PV system around 25kW. I wouldn't waste my time with anything under 15kW. But like I said, the upfront costs were rather high.

And I don't pee in a bottle when I drive. If I'm out in the country, I do what other country folk do - find a good bush. Unless an EV is self driving, I probably would take breaks. I drove my mother's since-sold 4Runner a few times, and I had to take frequent nap breaks, because that boring car would make me sleepy. I drive a standard for a reason.


So for long trips - how many miles would you typically get while towing? My 5x14 tandem axle is only 1240 empty. On either TDI, I'm looking at 400-500 per tank.

Last question - how is parts availability in the rare chance of collisions? I have yet to see a Tesla at the local junkyards, though I did see my first Maserati there on Tuesday...

Then you should definitely want an EV. My Tesla hasn't seen a service center in over 4 years. What costs more? 1 visit for $500 or 6 visits for $250 each?

Out of curiosity, how many miles do you drive a year?

Did you read past the headline? The labor cost per hour is 2x for an EV vs ICE which is to be expected since EVs are newer, more advanced and require more specialized skill. But if it requires 90% fewer hours of repair/maintenance then it's still cheaper even at 2x the cost per hour.

I guess that's why, if I owned an EV, I'd do the work myself. The only time I ever take my TDIs to the dealer is if I need to buy parts I can't get from rock auto/ID Parts, or I'm getting my windows tinted.

 

[pkhoury]

Love the irony of the thread derailing onto the topic of trains itself.

Pun intended much? LOL!

I'm still on the fence about Tesla owners. Are they the descendents of Prius owners. Not sure about everyone else, but Im a Carcist. For example I do not like most Nissan owners for whatever reason. And that notion has yet to fail me.

Ha, I mostly feel the same way. I'd be interested in a Tesla without that giant touch screen though. Talk about an accident waiting to happen for me. Distraction central.

After I sold my Prius, I vowed to never again own a Toyota, let alone a boring a$$ car to drive. Fast forward to living on a ranch, I can't really imagine towing with a Prius, though I did transport maybe 700-ish pounds of glass shelving in the back of the car, and I think I got a pretty stellar 34mpg! I also found with the Prius, that it's not the best idea to use the engine braking option. My transmission only lasted 126K, another reason I'm not returning to the brand. That's the first thing that's missing from junkyard Prius' - the tranny.

 

[Poor King]

Biden wants to build a national EV charging system under $2 trillion infrastructure plan, but it won't be easy

An estimated $300 billion is needed to build out a global charging network to meet the expected growth of EVs by 2030, including $50 billion in the U.S. alone

www.google.com

... Googled it up right after work and it was indeed exactly what I assumed. And when I mentioned a combined private investment (by top global ceo's) of $10B-- well I just read an article that chinese smartphone company Xiaomi is planning a $10B investment of their own. So imagine how many more giant corps will want a piece of that. Things will get cheaper on the EV side of things that's for sure.

My thing is that in-the-land-of-the-free we should be able to drive what we like instead of being forced upon it. You want to make drastic changes in CO2 emissions: I can point out soo many other factors which are the leading cause of such havoc in our global system. Let's start off with private jets, and homes which accumulate 10x the energy needed for a single family. Nothing against the choice of lifestyle but people whom choose to live that lavishly need to have mandatory CO2 tax which offsets their carbon footprint. Why should I have to give up my diesel because you suck at living.

 

[turbobrick240]

Youtuber Brooks from Dragtimes just got his new Plaid Model S and was able to uncork a 9.2s quarter mile and sub 2s 0-60 on a completely unprepped road surface!

Tesla Model S Plaid achieves 1.99-second 0-60 mph time with no prep on the street

Since the Tesla Model S Plaid deliveries began, there has been much discussion about the vehicle’s actual 0-60 mph performance. Tesla lists the vehicle with a 1.99-second 0-60 mph time, but this has been met with some pushback from both reviewers and motoring publications alike. MotorTrend, in...

www-teslarati-com.cdn.ampproject.org

For those upset or confused about the one foot rollout, here's an article from Car & Driver explaining why they use the industry standard.

We're Making a Slight Change to Our Acceleration-Testing Procedure

www-caranddriver-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[DudaEnergy]

I know a lot of people who have been working from home for the last year and love it. Obviously that isn't going to work for quite a lot of jobs, but enough to cut back on road traffic considerably.

Another idea I have is we should spread out when businesses operate throughout the day. Think about how there's these peak traffic periods during limited hours of the day and then after midnight, streets are dead. What a waste of road usage in my opinion.

No way the commuter lines ever get anywhere near 79 MPH. More like 50 on the lines that come near me. Stops are too close together to go faster, and there are lots and lots of grade level crossings.

3000 HP sounds like a lot, but how many HP per rider are there on a full train? Certainly less than in a passenger car.

Even set aside passenger transportation, we have too many trucks on the road. Our current rail system is exhausted in capacity to the point where the rail isn't cheaper than trucking, but trucking is clearly way more expensive. One dude for every truck vs one train for 400+ railcars and the least rolling resistance and not having to deal with congested roads etc...? It's simple, the USA stopped investing in rail infrastructure when Eisenhower created the highway system. Trucks are a little more convenient also in terms of speed but the real reason they exist to move almost everything is from bad infrastructure planning.

Just saw on the news last night where the Amtrak wolverine line that travels to and from Kalamazoo added a second trip. They stated that train reaches speeds of 110 mph. I remember the one we took from Grand Rapids to Chicago hit speeds in the upper 70s.

China has trains which have gone 300 kph (188 mph) and some even as high as 431 kph (268 mph). I've been on one that went 200 kph (125 mph). My agent explained they weren't going faster because of recent accidents and people demanded that they slow down. Talk about fancy trains too. Very comfortable. Beats my car any day. And wifi? Sure beats a plane unless you're crossing the entire country. The best part about the train is running so many railcars behind one engine means a lot less air drag than 400 individual vehicles x number of passengers driving their own cars. We should have small, electric cars and bikes for local travel and probably just rent them out within cities instead of people having to own them and use trains and planes for the longer distances.

 

[jmodge]

Best thing about trains is not driving through Chicago. Went through it Sunday, only the highway, but plenty bad enough. Running the train from there is pleasant and just slightly quicker.

 

[TurboABA]

Then you should definitely want an EV. My Tesla hasn't seen a service center in over 4 years. What costs more? 1 visit for $500 or 6 visits for $250 each?

I'm not saying that I don't want an EV..... I'm saying that I don't want one until the math works in my favor.... so bring prices down and incentives up, and I'll join you.

 

[akjdouglass]

I'm not saying that I don't want an EV..... I'm saying that I don't want one until the math works in my favor.... so bring prices down and incentives (everyone else's taxes) up, and I'll join you.

Dreamers, go ahead and drive your electric crap to to moon if you want, just stop expecting the rest of us to pay for it.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Car & Driver had their staff do a 1000 mile road trip in a bunch of the current EVs.

The EV 1000: 11 EVs Face Off in a Long-Distance Race

A 1000-mile race reveals what it's like to drive an EV long distances in 2021.

www.caranddriver.com

At the end of the article they write:

Our drivers are split when asked whether the EV 1000 was harder or easier than expected, but most say that if they were to do the trip again, they would do one thing differently: drive a gas car. And that includes the Tesla drivers.

I drove to NYC and back yesterday in my TDI, about a 480 mile round trip. Of course I didn't stop for fuel. Made one rest stop on the way down, less than 5 minutes, and no stops on the way home.

The above article also shows how driving at higher speeds limits range. It shows the Model 3 will only go 207 miles at 80 MPH. Not sure if that's accurate, but if so I couldn't have made the trip one way on a full charge.

 

[turbobrick240]

I'm not sure that driving a gas car in a 1000 mile EV race would make much sense . I used to treat road trips like there was a timer counting down, but it really sucks all the fun out of traveling.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I like the flexibility to stop when I want, where I want. I usually stop at rest areas if I don't need fuel because they're quieter and more pleasant than most service centers. Ohio Turnpike notwithstanding. I love their service areas.

 

[TurboABA]

.... just stop expecting the rest of us to pay for it.

Based on that, my taxes shouldn't be used to build schools since I don't have kids.... I'm sure there's many others like me... so lets use all of the non-parent tax money to jack up incentives that only non-parents can benefit from when purchasing EVs! Happy now?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Based on that, my taxes shouldn't be used to build schools since I don't have kids.... I'm sure there's many others like me... so lets use all of the non-parent tax money to jack up incentives that only non-parents can benefit from when purchasing EVs! Happy now?

Not a good comparison. A better one would be if all school children are charged for attending school, except for one sub-group for one reason or another. Or if one group of homeowners didn't have to pay taxes but still were able to use all of a town's services, including schools.

 

[oilhammer]

We get taxed all the time on things we do not directly see the benefit from. And when "new" taxes levied have no sunset clause, the gov't is all too happy to keep on taking, LOL. The phone tax (aka the Spanish American War tax, because it was levied to pay for said war) was FINALLY repealed in 2006. Yes, that's right. 2006. The war ended in 1898. Over a century of taxing in the name of something that literally lasted a few months.

 

[TurboABA]

I can't think of a single war that has ever ended.... just sayin....

 

[kjclow]

In greater Boston traffic is back to pre-pandemic levels, with some changes in patterns. And most employers in the city and surrounding suburbs haven't brought all employees back. The big change, many say, is that folks aren't riding public transportation. This is not progress.

We do not have very good public transportation in Charlotte, so the changes in traffic patterns don't make as much sense. It seems that our rush times are lasting longer in both the morning and afternoon. Afternoon rush is also starting earlier. Used to be that the worst of the traffic would be from about 4-6 pm. Now it starts before 3 and lasts until about 7.

 

[Poor King]

Tell that to the public in Europe who had already taken to the streets (a year ago) in protests over EV tax incentives. Once again, Why should I pay for a privilege that is beyond my affordability. EV's are for mid-to-high class car buyers in the current market and it does not make sense for low income folks to pay for the luxury of someone else to drive one.

EV's should be an option, you know, different strokes for diff folks kind of thing. There are soamy great ICE vehicles out today, I would think twice about an EV. I see a Tesla on the streets and they come off neat, however when I see a G70, I want to drive one because it seems like such a bargain at the price range of a T3 (RWD manual 2.0T for under 40k).

 

[turbobrick240]

Yeah, the Europeans are so upset by their generous EV incentives that they're buying EVs up at ever increasing rates. I think the Model 3 was the best selling car in Germany last month. That's how you get even, lol.