Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

[IndigoBlueWagon]

It's true that Tesla repairs are reportedly taking a long time, but everything is these days. Think of the people here who had a turbo fail on a 12-14 Passat TDI. Those haven't been available for over a year.

 

[turbobrick240]

And even with the long repair wait times, Tesla scores higher in customer satisfaction polling than any other make. They must be pretty special vehicles.

 

[Poor King]

They definitely are trending, what they are not is affordable yet.

 

[turbobrick240]

Everything is relative I suppose. A number of members here are driving VW family vehicles that cost as much or more than a Model 3 when new. But I also look forward to what economies of scale will do for EV prices in the years ahead.

 

[Poor King]

I wouldn't be on that boat factoring that they are 1st gen VAG products.

In terms of depreciation and build quality--Tesla's did not depreciate yet because of their own inability to produce enough units (then with covid and all). And regardless of poor build quality consumers were throwing their monies at Tesla because they were trending or Elon fanboys. But returning to your previous comment on budget EV's, there are testimonials which suggests cars like the Leaf have a solid audience.

If I had $120k to purchase an EV it would not be the Plaid that would be in my garage. A used EV Hummer would get the nod.

 

[turbobrick240]

I guess if you want to spin demand outstripping supply as a negative.... Also, I wouldn't rag on Tesla build quality too much- I've seen your steering wheel

 

[Poor King]

Well I'd rather have my steering wheel than die with a yolk. Life is not a video game Elon

 

[turbobrick240]

Silly rabbit- yolks are for eggs.

 

[Poor King]

Just noticed you're from Maine! I was just there the day before yesterday. There's a place called Volksshop in Gray and the owner has close to 200 older VW's I damn near lost my mind... I was like Tuco at the graveyard.

 

[turbobrick240]

You picked some unusually hot weather for a visit. I wouldn't mind being at the beach right now! Funny that you mention video games- I just started reading 'Liftoff!' by Eric Berger last night. It documents the trials and travails of the very early days at SpaceX. Elon and his gang of brilliant engineers would frequently stay up all night playing video games at the office/factory in El Segundo. The book is amazing. I can't recommend it highly enough to any rocket/space nerds out there.

 

[nicklockard]

Regarding average prices of cars increasing beyond people's ability to purchase:

I went searching for new car median prices by vehicle class, but couldn't find any. Found a good forum discussion though here. Bottom line: people buy the most car they can get for a payment of 'X' dollars per month. Since financiers keep increasing terms, people buy way more car than they can afford. (IMO). Our household rule is we don't buy any cars that we could not afford to pay cash for with a minor, short term pain. Still finance them though. Last few cars we purchased were:

• 2009 Beemer 335d --financed $10,500 @ 1.74% in 2015 (since sold)
• 2012 MB C250--financed $12,500 @ 2.79% in 2018 (since wrecked & totaled when it got rear-ended)
• 2016 BMW 228xi--cash purchase $16,000 from proceeds of totaled MB
• 2014 VW Touareg Tdi--cash purchase $10,500

DISCLAIMER: I haven't followed the details of government incentives closely, so here's my somewhat uninformed thoughts:

IMO, if you want more people to drive electric cars, (which I'm not sure is the right goal myself) I suggest

• Government (legislatures) can help-- every manufacturer needs to beg Tesla to license their charging tech. Theirs is the most mature and scalable at this point I think. Legislatures can incentivize standards cooperation agreements on licensing & payments.
• Improve the financing options (longer, more attractive terms for 'average joes (median Joe's?)
• and/or have a hybrid model like:
  • buy the most electric car you can for payment x, but lease the battery with a full lifetime warranty

 

[tikal]

I am not ready to buy an electrical car

Tom Beckett, a former truck and bus driver, says he's driven at least two million miles in his lifetime, and he is all for burning less gasoline to protect the environment.
But like many Americans, he is "just not ready" to buy a low-emission electric car because of so-called range anxiety - the fear he won't be able to go far enough on a single charge.
The 62-year-old lives in rural Arkansas where he regularly has to drive long distances to get around, and electric vehicle (EV) charging points are few and far between.
"Unless the battery capacity and the range doubles, I don't think electric cars will ever become a big deal in states like this," he tells the BBC.
"People need the confidence to know their cars won't run out of juice. Otherwise they'll just stick with gas."

Outside of a few major metropolitan areas, EVs still aren't very common in the US and the country accounted for just 2% of new EV sales globally last year, compared to 10% from Europe.

"In Europe or Japan you might take the train, but it is very common for Americans drive 1,000 miles or more when they go on vacation or visit the national parks. Electrification has got to fit in around this."

We just finished a 5,300 mile road/camping trip this summer with our 2004 Passat TDI fully loaded to the brim and with a hitch cargo carrier. I recall driving through a strech of Nevada where a sign said no service stations in the next 150 miles. No service stations and I did not have cell service (AT&T) in all these miles! I am glad I filled up in St. George, UT and I could reach my destination (towards Carson City, NV) with one tank and have spare for another two and half drive the following day. I think now used EVs are primed for city driving. Give it another five years and I will re-visit replacing a fuel efficient TDI with over 600 miles of range with a comparable sized EV.

Dan Neil, an automotive columnist for the Wall Street Journal, says battery technology is improving fast, prices are falling, and consumers will see the benefits.
"EVs soon will be cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate than gasoline-powered cars," he says. "And as global regulations clamp down on tailpipe emissions, old cars will get less and less satisfying to drive."

Still, Mr Biden could face other obstacles. He hopes to expand subsidies to bring down the costs of EVs for buyers and manufacturers as part of his $3.5 trillion Budget plan, but there's no guarantee it will pass.
The shift to electrification is also likely to cost jobs, given the typical EV requires around three times less manpower to produce.
...

Prof Heitt agrees we could see "big regional impacts" from the transition, but thinks ultimately the economics of electric vehicles will prevail.
"There is always going to be a group of Americans that feel strongly against electric cars," he says. "But there were 17 million horses used for transport in the US around the turn of the 20th Century, and by the 1920s-30s the automobile had taken over.
"The question is, are we going to stick with horses or move on to the next technology?"

 

[Poor King]

 

[turbobrick240]

IMO, if you want more people to drive electric cars, (which I'm not sure is the right goal myself) I suggest

• Government (legislatures) can help-- every manufacturer needs to beg Tesla to license their charging tech. Theirs is the most mature and scalable at this point I think. Legislatures can incentivize standards cooperation agreements on licensing & payments.
• Improve the financing options (longer, more attractive terms for 'average joes (median Joe's?)
• and/or have a hybrid model like:
  • buy the most electric car you can for payment x, but lease the battery with a full lifetime warranty

Isn't the Aptera coming equipped with a Tesla style charge plug? If so, they must have an agreement with Tesla to use the Supercharger network. That's a prime example of where a nimble startup (like Aptera) has a leg up on the stodgy old legacy manufacturers.

 

[nicklockard]

It's not finalized, but they want to license Tesla's charging tech. If they succeed, it'll be a huge boon to adoption and increasing their user base, IMO.

 

[Poor King]

It's gonna turn into a lightening cable vs USB thing.

 

[pkhoury]

The Leaf seems like it should be selling better than it is. I'm not sure if Nissan fully addressed the super rapid battery degradation that plagued the earlier Leafs. If not, the depreciation curve will be steep.

How bad was the battery degradation of the earlier models? I test drove one once, and I actually liked it. I bet it'd be a good grocery getter, though our nearest "nice" grocery store is about 64 miles round trip. Thankfully, the roads are all 70mph on the way there.

 

[pkhoury]

Not so much fishy as probably just a confused Tesla employee. Or maybe they got the impression that they were dealing with more of a tire kicker than a truly interested buyer(still not a great excuse for giving out bad info). I know for sure that Tesla doesn't employ Nikola's downhill tow rating system.

Well, what I found funny was that the guy said he and his wife put a downpayment on a Cybertruck, but his current daily was I think a Dodge Ram 1500. I don't think I saved the chat, but he said whatever's on the website is the official information Tesla gives, which was kinda surprising.

 

[pkhoury]

However, if you can't get the low income households to switch over to electric, then you're missing the majority of the market. From the experience of my kids, they will probably buy used and pick up someone else's issues. Such as reduced battery life and therefore reduced range. They will also have to figure out how and when to charge. One just moved into a new townhome with no electric charging facalities close to them. The costs of adding to their garage would keep an electric vehicle out of contention, for now. The other is renting a small house with no garage or carport. Unless she has charging at work, electric only is a no go. (Pun inteded)

We have this problem here in town. Those who do have garages (like my mother's house, next door) have them filled with things other than a vehicle. In fact, I don't know ANYONE in our town who uses their garage for vehicles, except the VFD. I'd still be concerned I'd have to get an additional transfer from the co-op, given that I have either 200 or 250A service, but that's spread between two houses and all the ag stuff (well and inline pressure pumps, which come out to like 6HP in total, and are used quite frequently).

 

[pkhoury]

So long as banks will lend money.... I really don't understand the idea of borrowing a crap load of money to buy a DEpreciating asset, then pay interest for the "privilege" to do so, and doing this repeatedly until you die. But lots of people do just that. What is really crazy is when some of these new vehicle lose value so much right away, that they are upside down by in some cases tens of thousands of dollars for the first couple years.

I guess mom got lucky. She bought a CPO 2014 New Beetle TDI convertible for her "fun car." Here and there, we get those postcards from shady used car lots claiming they have a customer looking to pay top dollar for said vehicle. The last one gave a rough appraisal of 13.5 based on mileage (still under 15K) and photos. KBB shows trade in value at 21.5, and I think private party was around 23 or 24? Hell, my 2002 Golf, I bought for $4500, but my insurance company says it's worth around $4700, excluding all the upgrades I have.

And then you have some cars, like you said, that depreciate depreciate faster than dogecoin went down last month.

 

[turbobrick240]

Sounds as though the standard range Model Y will be coming back into production in Fremont with LFP batteries. The LFP packs are also to be used in standard range Model 3 made in Fremont. Makes sense, especially if the upcoming EV incentive gets capped at a relatively low price point.

Tesla Switching to LFP Batteries for Standard Range Model 3 & Model Y - CleanTechnica

... and using 2170 batteries in Austin and Brandenburg for starters.

cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[Poor King]

Tesla needs to decide where it wants to position itself instead of planning to cater to all buyers. Currently they are the mark and that there is a price for the badging. To cheapen their cars with lesser tech is to gamble being scrutinized as a brand in it's entirety, due the shortcomings of inferior tech. At the least create a subsidiary and sell those cars under a different brand-like VW is to Audi.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Poor build quality hasn't seemed to hurt them...

 

[oilhammer]

Never seemed to hurt Harley-Davidson either. It seems if you have a fan base, they'll happily look the other way.

 

[turbobrick240]

The standard range Tesla's have the same top shelf tech as the rest. Just less battery capacity. They don't seem too concerned about the old legacy notions of marketing and branding. I'd have to say that their approach has been an unmitigated success- zero dollars wasted on advertising, yet demand is far in excess of supply. The luxury/premium car market is only so large. If Tesla is going to grow into their valuation dwarfing all other automakers, it makes sense for them to go after a wider market.

 

[Poor King]

True true.. but that all changes as more manufacturers size up and bring their A game.

 

[turbobrick240]

Time will tell. Tesla has a huge leg up in that they are unencumbered by ICE product lines. That they attract the best engineering talent is also a significant advantage.

 

[kjclow]

Never seemed to hurt Harley-Davidson either. It seems if you have a fan base, they'll happily look the other way.

Unlike Tesla, HD went through a lot of parents and each one took more and more costs out of the bikes for end profit. When the Davidson family finally stepped back in, quality has started to come back up. Tesla started at the bottom with questionable fit and finish and stays there.

 

[kjclow]

Time will tell. Tesla has a huge leg up in that they are unencumbered by ICE product lines. That they attract the best engineering talent is also a significant advantage.

Yes, not having a legacy line to keep supporting makes a huge difference. My current employer reaped those benifits in North America too. Went from a non-player to #2 supplier at the larger customers and #1 at some of the medium sized ones.

 

[compu_85]

It's true that Tesla repairs are reportedly taking a long time, but everything is these days.

One thing that's been pleasant surprise: Tesla parts are actually very reasonably priced. And they have mobile service. Our car is out of warranty now - it's got 125,000 miles. We had to get a control arm / ball joint replaced, that was around $300 total; and the charge port door & motor which was $180 - cheaper than eBay prices for used & scratched ones! And they sent mobile service to our house to install it!

-J