Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

pkhoury

That guy with the goats
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Car & Driver had their staff do a 1000 mile road trip in a bunch of the current EVs.


At the end of the article they write:

Our drivers are split when asked whether the EV 1000 was harder or easier than expected, but most say that if they were to do the trip again, they would do one thing differently: drive a gas car. And that includes the Tesla drivers.

I drove to NYC and back yesterday in my TDI, about a 480 mile round trip. Of course I didn't stop for fuel. Made one rest stop on the way down, less than 5 minutes, and no stops on the way home.

The above article also shows how driving at higher speeds limits range. It shows the Model 3 will only go 207 miles at 80 MPH. Not sure if that's accurate, but if so I couldn't have made the trip one way on a full charge.
I drove with @alphaseinor following in his dad's Dodge 2500 on the way to Houston to pick up vintage computers. I'd say the trip was about 270-ish miles each way, but he was driving over 100mph and I was going about 75-80 towing my almost 1300 pound trailer. We both stopped at Buc-ee's for bathroom and food/drinks, but otherwise, it was a non-stop trip.

It's funny how nwdriver totally skipped out on my legitimate questions. I did some googling, and aside from sources claiming the towing capacity of the Model 3 is 2000 pounds, it appears a factory towing hitch isn't yet available in the US. And other sources are saying that towing capacity goes down by 40%.

Also, like you Peter, I like to stop when I want, where I want. Like after filling up on Sunday evening to head home, I took a nap in the car with the AC running. Not sure how much this depletes the battery in the Tesla, given that I think I'd be considered a douche if I were to block a charging station with a car and 14' trailer while charging up if that were the case.

And lastly - what do Tesla/EV owners do on long trips if they opt to sleep in their car with the AC going, rather than do a crappy hotel (on my normal trip from CA to TX, there are NOTHING but crappy hotels along the way, except in Phoneix, which is pointless).

We get taxed all the time on things we do not directly see the benefit from. And when "new" taxes levied have no sunset clause, the gov't is all too happy to keep on taking, LOL. The phone tax (aka the Spanish American War tax, because it was levied to pay for said war) was FINALLY repealed in 2006. Yes, that's right. 2006. The war ended in 1898. Over a century of taxing in the name of something that literally lasted a few months. :D
Makes me curious what the hell the money went for in those 100+ years...

We do not have very good public transportation in Charlotte, so the changes in traffic patterns don't make as much sense. It seems that our rush times are lasting longer in both the morning and afternoon. Afternoon rush is also starting earlier. Used to be that the worst of the traffic would be from about 4-6 pm. Now it starts before 3 and lasts until about 7.
San Antonio is the same. And even if public transportation were really good, what would I do when I needed to transport things for agriculture, or if I wanted to travel with my dog? Last I checked, almost all public transportation venues don't allow pets, unless they're service dogs.
 

turbobrick240

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Most of the Teslas have super efficient heat pump HVAC systems. You wouldn't have to hog a supercharger to enjoy a comfortable place to take a nap- particularly if you have the good sense to find some shade to park in. EVs aren't yet everything for everyone. No, you're not going to want to tow 10k lbs across country with a model 3. Or plow up your pasture with one. But as a daily driver they suit the needs of 98% of the populace extremely well.
 

akjdouglass

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Not a good comparison. A better one would be if all school children are charged for attending school, except for one sub-group for one reason or another. Or if one group of homeowners didn't have to pay taxes but still were able to use all of a town's services, including schools.
Or when the State of Missouri wanted to levy a statewide tax to build a new stadium as an "incentive" for the billionaire owners of the Rams to keep the team in St. Louis. If EV's are to be a success, it will happen in due time without government incentives which help line the pockets of Musk and others at the expense of us all.

In fairness, maybe ABA was referring to incentives offered by, and fully funded by, the EV manufacturers? :unsure:

I want to take one of those flights into space but can't afford a ticket... so bring prices down and incentives up, and I'll join you.
 

TurboABA

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When I mentioned incentives, I was simply saying "make EVs cheap and comprable" to the majority of popular ICE vehicles we use as DDs..... At the end of the day, I don't care where the incentive originates from ad much as I care about that EV buy-in coming down to 30% of what it is now 😜
 

pkhoury

That guy with the goats
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Most of the Teslas have super efficient heat pump HVAC systems. You wouldn't have to hog a supercharger to enjoy a comfortable place to take a nap- particularly if you have the good sense to find some shade to park in. EVs aren't yet everything for everyone. No, you're not going to want to tow 10k lbs across country with a model 3. Or plow up your pasture with one. But as a daily driver they suit the needs of 98% of the populace extremely well.
I'm sure that's an exageration, but the most I do is say 3500 pounds cross country at 75mph. And I don't usually get lucky with a shady spot, espescially when going from TX to CA. Sometimes I get lucky with a shady area at rest stops from TX to FL, but not always.

So I'm presuming that heat pump would be no problem keeping the car's HVAC going overnight without charging, and still have at least 100 miles or so of charge left whenever I wake up?
 

Poor King

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PorQue? Norwegians happen to be hood rich further verifying the fact that EV's are much affordable for the well off. Incentives should be handed off based on income imho.

And the most sold vehicle in Germany last year was the golf. If we're talking EV's then Renault was the leader in sales for that category in '20. No point of talking about this year cause it ain't over (although the e-Up took first quarter sales). If they place incentives on ICE vehicles then people would go thataway so there's no sense in comparing the two regarding sales.
 
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TurboABA

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I would argue that Norwegians simply got serious about EVs, and their government supported the "migration" by actually investing\developing the infrastructure and providing tax breaks instead of pissing around like we do on this side of the pond.

A few examples:
https://blog.wallbox.com/norway-ev-incentives/ said:
No purchase tax or VAT
No road traffic insurance tax
Half price tolls
Half price parking
Use of bus and taxi lanes

In terms of national EV infrastructure, the Norwegian government has already established fast-charging stations every 50km on all main roads
 

turbobrick240

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I'm sure that's an exageration, but the most I do is say 3500 pounds cross country at 75mph. And I don't usually get lucky with a shady spot, espescially when going from TX to CA. Sometimes I get lucky with a shady area at rest stops from TX to FL, but not always.

So I'm presuming that heat pump would be no problem keeping the car's HVAC going overnight without charging, and still have at least 100 miles or so of charge left whenever I wake up?
Yes, those exaggerated examples were just to emphasize that it's easy to find edge use cases where an EV may not be ideal. But for most people, most of the time- EVs are clean, quiet, efficient, convenient, and cost effective to operate. And with some incentives they can be cost competitive to purchase. For your overnight on a budget example, I'd look for a low level charger. These are often free. Or you could park near a supercharger and just charge up for a half hour or less in the morning or before going to sleep if running low on range. Idling your ICEV overnight for AC is incredibly inefficient. I'd be surprised if 10% of the energy consumed is actually keeping you cool.

This is a BIG development! Great news for the entire EV community.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I agree that we can always find extreme cases were an EV doesn't measure up. But there are similar extremes for ICEVs. Right now my daughter is on an extended visit here, and she's driving my 335d. Lots of short trips. Fortunately she's also been taking longer (50+ miles) drives at least once a week, so I'm reasonably confident that the car is getting to regen as needed. But without those, that car would be a very bad fit for her use. An EV would be far better.

I don't worry about trip length on my Jetta, solely because it's not current emissions compliant. if my '15 or my BMW were my only cars, I'd worry about that. And with any diesel, a good long drive really helps the car run better. Lots of members here, I believe, have TDIs that are not preforming optimally because they don't drive them far enough or hard enough. Every vehicle has a preferred operating mode.
 

TurboABA

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An EV would be more than sufficient for my weekday use (commuting, running around, grocery shopping, etc).
On weekends, I do take longer trips, tow both utility and RV trailers, etc. so that's not so feasible...... that being said, I could keep the Touareg for weekend use and use the EV during the week....... the problem still exists when doing the rough math......

It would take me 15-18 years to see an ROI assuming that I'd get into a new ID4, that I would only charge it during off-peak hours at home while sleeping, and that it would be maintenance free the whole time, and that both my Jetta and it would burn through the same amount of tires during these years, etc. (and that my Jetta will last another 15 years..... possible but unlikely with the crap they spray on the roads around here during winter)
This also assumes no major failures on my current ICE, just regular maintenance, and no fuel price increases (so a lot of dreaming).

I'm sure the ROI period would be significantly reduced for those who don't do their own wrenching, or don't already have their ICE paid off, etc..... but it's still quite hard for me to imagine a scenario in which a decent EV (read, not the smallest econo box Leaf or similar) would become attractive while still being priced the way they are currently!

Now I'm sure that if you're going from a Hellcat to a Leaf it would make much more sense, but lets try to be realistic.... hell, even if I didn't have another mode of transportation and was looking at purchasing a vehicle, the ICE equivalent would still probably cost about 1/2 the price of the EV, so you'd still need a good 10 years of trouble free use to start seeing any savings.

So what am I overlooking here?
 

TurboABA

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I won't live long enough for an EV to become as affordable to operate as the cars I already own and operate.
Unfortunately, I believe this statement to be quite correct based on current trends around here......
Most of us "spoiled" ICE owners would see more savings from reducing our "fleets" (I'm in a household of 2 drivers and we have 2 SUVs, 2 cars and 1 motorcycle between us...... we could easily get by with 2 vehicles and even with one IF we had to)........ Insurance and maintenance cost savings resulting from the elimination of extra vehicles would easily offset the FE losses of using the least efficient of the vehicles for all driving\towing needs.

Unless you drive a really inefficient lemon A LOT and have the opportunity to recharge for free or super cheap, current EV offerings will not save you any money any time in the near future...... not according to my crappy math.
 

turbobrick240

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An EV would be more than sufficient for my weekday use (commuting, running around, grocery shopping, etc).
On weekends, I do take longer trips, tow both utility and RV trailers, etc. so that's not so feasible...... that being said, I could keep the Touareg for weekend use and use the EV during the week....... the problem still exists when doing the rough math......


So what am I overlooking here?
You seem to know what you're overlooking- the fact that there's pretty much zero chance that diesel & gas prices won't increase over the next 15 years, or that your car won't require any repairs over that time frame. I assume there are also other miscalculations in your cost analysis.
 

TurboABA

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You seem to know what you're overlooking- the fact that there's pretty much zero chance that diesel & gas prices won't increase over the next 15 years, or that your car won't require any repairs over that time frame. I assume there are also other miscalculations in your cost analysis.
So help me sort it out brotha...... let's make some assumptions, etc......

I commute roughly 25k (kms) a year in my paid off Jetta TDI.
Give me a scenario calculation where you flush out my errors.
 

turbobrick240

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Here's a scenario- in 10 years your current car might well be a clapped out rust bucket swallowing $6/gal diesel fuel. But you're in luck because the 2030 cash for junkers program is handing out $10k for such vehicles to be put toward a new EV. With that cash in hand you go buy a 270 hp $28k Tesla hatchback for $18k and never look back.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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You seem to know what you're overlooking- the fact that there's pretty much zero chance that diesel & gas prices won't increase over the next 15 years, or that your car won't require any repairs over that time frame. I assume there are also other miscalculations in your cost analysis.
Have diesel and gas prices overall increased in real dollars in the past 15 years, adjusted for inflation? There have been price spikes, but I think the averages have been pretty consistent. And now with domestic resources available for oil, along with anticipated reduction in demand, it's possible that real prices will fall.

You may disagree with this chart, but the red line is average prices adjusted for inflation:
 

oilhammer

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outside St Louis, MO
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There are just too many to list....
My daily fuel costs are a pretty small percentage of my overall lifestyle costs. And I drive 100 miles a day (M-F). Weekends are more variable, but lately a large chunk of my weekend driving involves the use of a trailer, a truck, or both, and almost always 25-100+ miles round trip.

Fuel costs go up and down, but those of us enjoying 50+ MPG cars as our main source of transportation don't really feel much of this. If a 50 cent swing in per-gallon fuel makes your butthole pucker, you are using too much fuel to begin with, as far as I am concerned.
 

turbobrick240

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At this point a carbon tax is pretty much inevitable within the next 10 years. I'll be shocked if diesel isn't at least $5/gal within that timeframe.
 

oilhammer

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outside St Louis, MO
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There are just too many to list....
And again, negligible. If fuel went from $3/gal now to $5/gal in a year, I would be looking at an increase of about $1500/yr to get me to and from work. I cannot buy an EV for that. Cannot even come close to that. Cannot even come close to a payment on that. It would never, ever, pay off for me. I simply won't live long enough. Even if I "saved" $1500/yr for 25 years, I could not even pay for a base Tesla. And in 25 years, I assure you there won't be anything viable and less expensive given current MSRPs climbing higher and higher seemingly by the month.
 

Abacus

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You seem to know what you're overlooking- the fact that there's pretty much zero chance that diesel & gas prices won't increase over the next 15 years, or that your car won't require any repairs over that time frame. I assume there are also other miscalculations in your cost analysis.
It's about the same chance as the electrical rates not going up or that the already stressed grid will require significant investment (with the costs transferred to consumers) to handle the increase in EV's.

As to solar, it's expensive here in AZ and there are lots of scam companies out there pushing it. I'm not knocking solar but the more research I do (we are looking to have it installed) I do the less attractive it looks.
 

turbobrick240

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People buy new cars all of the time. If one is doing a serious cost of ownership exercise, they should be comparing new cars to new cars. They should also be honest about things like fuel costs, maintenance costs, and real world mileage. Even in a site like this full of thrifty, conservative drivers, a minuscule number are actually averaging 50 mpg.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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With EVs you have to compare new cars to new cars, because there are very, very few used EVs out there. Yes, there are some that are pretty much useless (like a 1st Gen Leaf), but people are asking close to new prices for used Teslas. And the other EVs are brand new to market.

What happens to EVs as they age is an open question. Many believe they're going to be like cell phones: use for a few years and then throw away, because the technology will be obsolete. Others think they'll outlast ICEVs. I guess we'll find out.
 

TurboABA

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What is considered a decent "new" EV in today's market?
What is a comparable new ICE to said EV?
What is the "buy in" cost of those, and how much fuel will that buy you? (lets ignore all other factors and considerations right now)
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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People buy new cars all of the time.
Which, many people will tell you, is one of the biggest economic mistakes a household can make. I like to buy new, but I tend to mitigate that by keeping my cars a long, long time. Only two of the 6 cars I currently own were bought new: one 4 years ago, one 19 years ago. The rest cost a fraction of their original MSRPs. For now, EVs have a big disadvantage compared to used ICEVs.

Car & Driver developed a cost comparison between a new ID.4 and a top-of-the-line Tiguan. The Tiguan was less expensive over 3 years, but not by much. But that was, of course, a new car to new car comparison.
 
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turbobrick240

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Many people believe a lot of nonsensical things. Look how many Americans haven't vaccinated themselves despite the ease of doing so and consequences to themselves and others of not being vaccinated. There are more than enough 8+ year old Teslas with high mileage out there to debunk the disposable EV myth. Unfortunately, poor designs like the early LEAFs did contribute to that misperception.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
We cannot compare EVs because there is no good data to compare to. There are no 20 year old ones out there to buy. But you can buy as many 20 year old $2500 beaters as you care to buy, and many of them are still capable of doing everything they did when new just the same as they did when new. I have a driveway full of them.

All the "near affordable" used EVs are suffering from decreased range, almost to the point of being completely worthless to anyone. Why would I want a car that can barely go 20 miles? The rest are still too ridiculously priced. And some are just so hideous to look at, I couldn't stomach walking up to it every day (the new ID-whatever-it-is is STUPID to look at, at least the eGolf looked like a normal Golf, but then we are back to the ever-shortening range problem).

And while I can stomach the outward look of the Tesla (aside from the one that looks like a futuristic turtle), the interior ergonomics is just too damn strange for me, sorry. I thought BMW had some crazy nonsense to start a car and make it move, but every time I have to drive a Tesla I have to rethink how to make it even move. It shouldn't be that complicated, and I don't care to drive anything with an iPad glued to the dash. Again, at least the eGolf (and the no-longer-available 500e, eSpark, and Focus Energi) for the most part not only looked "normal", but operated mostly "normal" too.

When there is a 20 year old eGolf that I can buy for $2500 and it can still go as far as it did when new, sign me up. I'll buy it. I am not holding my breath.
 

kjclow

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What numbers? Either you're getting your electricity for next to nothing or the PV system was over-priced. A DIY PV system can pay for itself in ~3 years. Turnkey is typically ~10. You can DIY a 5kW PV system for <$3k after the FTC. 5kW will produce ~9MWh/yr; @ $0.10/kWh you're saving ~$900/yr ; $3k / $900/yr = 3.3 Years. 9MWh is enough energy to drive >30,000 miles. Even if you get ~50mpg that's ~600 gallons of diesel. So $3k in solar can save ~$1800/yr in diesel if you have an EV.

I bought a used Model 3 for $37,500. I can easily go ~1000 miles with a few charging stops that add up to less than 2 hours. Taking into account breaks most people would take driving an ICE there's really not going to be much if any difference in how long a trip takes unless you're peeing in a bottle while you drive.
Solar quote for me had about an 18 year payback. I'm not going up on the roof to install it myself.
 
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