Who’s going to Tesla after their current TDI?

[tikal]

At current fuel prices in the US the 40-30% price premium (average) of a new EV is going to have a very tough time to compete in terms of 10 year cost of ownership with all the options you have right now with ICE vehicles.

For the average American, who wants a specious affordable vehicle that gets at a minimum 35 MPG, then he/she would be looking at the current Toyota RAV4 hybrid or the Toyota Highlander hybrid. Not necessarily my cup of tea but I think when people look at the reality of their pocket book and their driving needs then a gasoline powered SUV/CUV ranks higher.

Eventually Toyota will make an all electric RAV4 with a minimum 300 miles of range selling for $35,000 or less and will discontinue making the hybrid version in North America. To me, this will be a tipping point towards the massive production and demand of EVs in the US.

 

[turbobrick240]

Do Americans really want specious affordable vehicles? I think a valid argument could be made based on the SUV trend.

The introduction of the Model 3 was the tipping point for EVs in the US, imo. It takes a little while for the momentum to build, but it is gaining speed rapidly. I see Model 3s on the road each and every day (that I drive) now.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I found this video interesting:

He also says that his "ideal" would be a plug-in hybrid with a diesel ICE. Mine, too, perhaps.

 

[kjclow]

Ye, it covers up to the amount you owe, but that's it. If you have to pay, the credit elminates that part. You do not get the remainder as a refund. It's the same with college tuition and loan tax credits. That was part of the spin for my solar quote. I think the credit was up $5000 (IIRC and based on both state and federal percentage) but I typically pay less than $1000. The rest just stays in Uncle Sam's pocket.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Let me answer another way. Let's say your total federal tax liability is $5000 for 2020. You've had $5000 withheld from your paychecks. So you'd owe $0 on April 15. But if the Federal credit for the Tesla is $2,000, you could apply that incentive on your tax return and get a $2,000 refund. Not if that's what you were saying or not.

 

[kjclow]

At current fuel prices in the US the 40-30% price premium (average) of a new EV is going to have a very tough time to compete in terms of 10 year cost of ownership with all the options you have right now with ICE vehicles.

For the average American, who wants a specious affordable vehicle that gets at a minimum 35 MPG, then he/she would be looking at the current Toyota RAV4 hybrid or the Toyota Highlander hybrid. Not necessarily my cup of tea but I think when people look at the reality of their pocket book and their driving needs then a gasoline powered SUV/CUV ranks higher.

Eventually Toyota will make an all electric RAV4 with a minimum 300 miles of range selling for $35,000 or less and will discontinue making the hybrid version in North America. To me, this will be a tipping point towards the massive production and demand of EVs in the US.

Honda CR-V is suppossed to be available this model year as a hybrid too. $2700 upcharge.

 

[Rob Mayercik]

The Tesla could rust (we really don't know about that yet, although I've seen some pretty scary pics of older Model $ suspension and steering).

Ok, I have to confess I found the "Model $" bit funny, even if it was unintentional.

Leaving the idiosyncracies of typing and autocorrect aside, This is one aspect of Tesla ownership that we really don't have as much data on - real-world long-duration service in environments rather less benign than California. Sure, the cars may be great now or in their first three years, but isn't the average American keeping their car about 11-12 years these days? What's a decade of service in a place like NJ (where the roads aren't always in the greatest of shape, and they tend to think in inches of salt per inch of snow (and then there's the brine they use to pre-treat these days - my mechanic grumbles about that all the time - says it's turning year-old cars into some of the worst rustbuckets he's seen in years).

I also tend to think of the Teslas as rolling ipads/xboxes, which makes me wonder about obsolescence - will a Tesla "turn off" one day because its computer systems are too many generations behind for the manufacturer to want to keep maintaining updates for? (think about the so-called "flagship" Android phones, which are cut off from O/S updates after about 3 years).

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

The Model $ was inintentional, although now that you pointed it out, I like it. Didn't Tesla do something akin to "turning off" the original roadster?

 

[tikal]

I think sometimes we write an opinion and we call it factual. I am probably guilty of that.

What you call "mainstream" or "tipping point" other people might not see it that way since there is not a scientific definition of these terms (or is it?). You might see a certain EV in large numbers in your area while other regions you might not see them that often.

Now, if I show you the following graph dating back to 2014 time frame I think few people would argue that hybrid vehicles have take off in Japan and they are truly mainstream now where I would expect that 60% or more of the passenger vehicles are gasoline-electric (source):

I do not think we have seen anything like the above regarding EV growth in the US in the last 10 years or so. Am I wrong? And how do we forecast that the growth of EVs in the US is going to be exponential or anything like the above graph?

Recently Honda announced their first production EV vehicle, and it is not going to be sold in the US just yet. Why? The market in the US is still not ripe according to Honda (correct me if I am wrong). I personally would like to see Toyota, Honda, VW, Hyundai, etc. bring more EVs to the US and provide service through our local dealerships. Right now a lot of people are hesitant to buy even a deeply discounted used EV because of they are not certain they could get a dedicated EV technician to do warranty work if needed nearby.

What a paradox, remember when years back we would ask ourselves why not more people would buy a TDI and say: "what's wrong about driving a few hours to get your car service by a 'TDI Guru', it is worth it!". Even before 'diesel gate' TDIs never took off in the US. VW fell asleep and never realized to bring a decent diesel SUV/CUV (sorry Audi $$$ does not count).

 

[turbobrick240]

When I look at that graph, I'd say the tipping point for hybrid vehicles in Japan was in '08. Not based on percentages so much as the rate of growth.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

Title of that graph says hybrid growth, not EV. Although EV fans like to lump them together, they're not the same thing.

 

[turbobrick240]

Actually, I think most BEV proponents prefer that PHEVs not be lumped in with BEVs. I'm also fairly certain tikal is well aware that the graph is for hybrid sales in Japan- he was just using it as an example. If you saw a graph of BEV sales in America, the growth would spike shortly after Model 3 sales began, much like hybrid sales in Japan shot upward in '08.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

You may or may not think this graph is from a credible source. I found it interesting. It shows that although Tesla Model 3 sales took off, most all other EVs, including other Tesla models, show declining sales in 2019 over 2018.

 

[pkhoury]

I am one of the founding members of this Club.

I love driving sticks, and I love fueling my Rocketchipped little Golf every 600-650 miles. But the internal combustion engine is heading to the door. My next car will be a Model Y.

You in the same place?
Sorry VW, you convinced me.

Bye now,
BeetleGo, went

And yet, after dieselgate, I bought MORE diesels. I own 4 TDIs (trying to sell my first now) and my mother, 3. Add to that 7 other diesels in the household of various kinds.

I'm sure an EV works for some. An acquaintance has a P120D. He took me and another car enthusiast friend for a drive. The acceleration/torque is amazing, but I didn't find the car very comfortable, even though I'm only 6'4". And the amount of towing I do (where my 1.5 ton would be overkill) negates the advantages of using an EV, not to mention that I don't know of any EV charging stations in a 30 mile radius.

 

[pkhoury]

You may or may not think this graph is from a credible source. I found it interesting. It shows that although Tesla Model 3 sales took off, most all other EVs, including other Tesla models, show declining sales in 2019 over 2018.

I feel like this year, between COVID-19 and the associated declining fuel prices, that EV sales are declining even further.

 

[turbobrick240]

You may or may not think this graph is from a credible source. I found it interesting. It shows that although Tesla Model 3 sales took off, most all other EVs, including other Tesla models, show declining sales in 2019 over 2018.

I don't doubt the credibility of that graph. One problem is it almost certainly includes PHEVs. A graph of just BEVs would be more revealing. Another issue is that Model 3 sales are a huge slice of US EV sales since 2018. And the Model 3 is production constrained, and many of them were shipped to Europe in 2019. Prepare to see a huge increase next year as the Berlin and Austin factories comes online and cybertruck sales begin. The sales of non Tesla EVs should grow quite a lot as well. 2020 is basically a garbage year for new car sales in general due to the pandemic- though EV sales have contracted far less than ICEV.

 

[ToxicDoc]

ALL car sales are down this year, thanks to COVID

 

[tikal]

Title of that graph says hybrid growth, not EV. Although EV fans like to lump them together, they're not the same thing.

Correct. I was trying to make a comparison and give an example of what is a real 'tipping point' and 'mainstream'. My point is that there is no indication of something similar is going to happen in the same rapid fashion in the US regarding EVs. If I am wrong, I would like to be corrected with supporting material.

 

[tikal]

Actually, I think most BEV proponents prefer that PHEVs not be lumped in with BEVs. I'm also fairly certain tikal is well aware that the graph is for hybrid sales in Japan- he was just using it as an example. If you saw a graph of BEV sales in America, the growth would spike shortly after Model 3 sales began, much like hybrid sales in Japan shot upward in '08.

Correct observation turbobrick240

 

[gulfcoastguy]

I am waiting for the rear wheel drive model Y to come out this spring so I can compare it directly to the ID 4. I like what I have seen about the ID 4. There is just one problem, there is exactly one Electrify America CCS charging station in my entire state. It is the only CCS charging station in my state. Tesla has an excellent system of superchargers throughout my state but the Y is going to be more expensive(I think) and be ineligible for federal tax credits.

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

If I were going to get an EV the ID-3 would be my first choice, but that's not coming here. I'd consider the ID-4, however. Charging network wouldn't matter for me because I'd use the car for local travel and probably almost exclusively charge it at home. Road Trip = Diesel.

 

[turbobrick240]

We got the LEAF, Fiat 500e, and Bolt. I think we'll get the ID.3 and Model 2 as well- just in 2-3 years from now.

 

[kjclow]

I think sometimes we write an opinion and we call it factual. I am probably guilty of that.

What you call "mainstream" or "tipping point" other people might not see it that way since there is not a scientific definition of these terms (or is it?). You might see a certain EV in large numbers in your area while other regions you might not see them that often.

Now, if I show you the following graph dating back to 2014 time frame I think few people would argue that hybrid vehicles have take off in Japan and they are truly mainstream now where I would expect that 60% or more of the passenger vehicles are gasoline-electric (source):

I do not think we have seen anything like the above regarding EV growth in the US in the last 10 years or so. Am I wrong? And how do we forecast that the growth of EVs in the US is going to be exponential or anything like the above graph?

Recently Honda announced their first production EV vehicle, and it is not going to be sold in the US just yet. Why? The market in the US is still not ripe according to Honda (correct me if I am wrong). I personally would like to see Toyota, Honda, VW, Hyundai, etc. bring more EVs to the US and provide service through our local dealerships. Right now a lot of people are hesitant to buy even a deeply discounted used EV because of they are not certain they could get a dedicated EV technician to do warranty work if needed nearby.

What a paradox, remember when years back we would ask ourselves why not more people would buy a TDI and say: "what's wrong about driving a few hours to get your car service by a 'TDI Guru', it is worth it!". Even before 'diesel gate' TDIs never took off in the US. VW fell asleep and never realized to bring a decent diesel SUV/CUV (sorry Audi $$$ does not count).

I wonder how much of that swing to hybrids was pushed by the government. In the past mid 80s), the Japanese had to pay for an extra registration fee if the car was more than 5 years old. The government wouldn't ahve to subsidize the hybrids, just make it more expensive to own older non-hybrids.

 

[tikal]

We got the LEAF, Fiat 500e, and Bolt. I think we'll get the ID.3 and Model 2 as well- just in 2-3 years from now.

And the Kia Soul EV, or is that discontinued?

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

VW's EV push starts with ID3 (but not in N. America)

The Golf-sized subcompact that Volkswagen will employ to begin its global charge into affordable electric vehicles won't be coming to the United States — but many of its components and design characteristics will.

www.autonews.com

 

[turbobrick240]

It's possible we won't ever get the ID3 here. Though, I suspect we will, in time. The Golf was first sold in '74, and we didn't get that here until '75.

 

[gulfcoastguy]

If I were going to get an EV the ID-3 would be my first choice, but that's not coming here. I'd consider the ID-4, however. Charging network wouldn't matter for me because I'd use the car for local travel and probably almost exclusively charge it at home. Road Trip = Diesel.

Sounds nice but I keep just one vehicle that's in good repair. I would need to sell or trade in my current Mazda in order to make the economics work out.

 

[El Dobro]

We got the LEAF, Fiat 500e, and Bolt. I think we'll get the ID.3 and Model 2 as well- just in 2-3 years from now.

I just picked up a 2017 Bolt that came off lease. Works for me.

 

[bigsexyTDI]

I went the opposite direction. In 2014 I bought the cheapest, most basic car available, the Mitsubishi Mirage. It isn't for everyone, but it is the most honest car on the market. It is exactly what it is billed to be. Affordable, reliable transportation that offers outstanding fuel economy along with basic creature comforts such as Bluetooth and power accessories. That 2014 was purchased brand new for just under $11k, and performed flawlessly with nothing other than basic maintenance until it met a horrible fate at 130k in a T-bone accident (which it kept me very safe in and took surprisingly well I must admit.)
I have since replaced it with a 2015 that I picked up with 70k for the princely sum of $2800 bucks!!! They are dirt cheap and will be the cars I pick up used for as long as I can. Dirt cheap to own, dirt cheap to maintain, dirt cheap to operate. Again, not everyone's cup of tea, but I live in the sticks, and I just don't see an EV being practical for a non city dweller.

 

[j_martell]

Probably not. I need range coupled with efficiency. I’ll likely end up in a newer (than my 06 BEW wagon) TDI hatch of some sort.

Also, I’m a gear head at heart, so my car needs to make noise lol