Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

[Daemon64]

El Dobro,

Yes they are, and I am glad that are. But look at the map and notice, NH, VT, upstate NY. All places we need to do long distance traveling and they left it out. Each time I camplained about infrastructure this is why... heh

They've made them on the more popular routes like cell phone carriers, which is fine and understandable, but that map obviously needs to become more like a huge swiss cheese pattern, so its' a DC fast charger atleast every 40 - 50 miles over the whole country....

In Other news --- We got Carvana to buyout our 2019 E-Golf SEL lease, since we are literally going basically nowhere, its' not worth the extra cost to us at all. Now we just have her 2011 WRX Hatchback manual Gas burner, and my 2015 Audi Q5 TDI.

Pre-Covid -- She was driving 250 miles / week on work commuting, and another 100 or so for whatever else, and I was driving like 100 miles. SO 450miles / week, plus some long trips so 30,400 miles a year split over 3 vehicles, most of the commuting went on the ( 10,400 ) golf. Because of job changes and etc... working from home etc... our driving post-Covid will be around 200 miles a week split between two vehicles, and mine will be used for some longer trips. So less driving overall around 15,400 per year. Her WRX is paid off, and she's never getting rid of it.

So we've reduced our diesel / gas miles by around 5k / year, and completely elimated our electric miles. So huge emissions savings overall even though we are eliminating the electric vehicle.

 

[turbobrick240]

VW is putting the first batch of 150 ID3s into employees hands. I wish them well, but I'm afraid the shakeup with Diess won't bode well for their EV development programs.
https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmorris/2020/06/19/can-volkswagens-id3-save-the-german-car-industry/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15931844027693&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fjamesmorris%2F2020%2F06%2F19%2Fcan-volkswagens-id3-save-the-german-car-industry%2F

 

[IndigoBlueWagon]

I like the bus.

 

[turbobrick240]

I like the bus too. I just wish they made the darn things instead of hyping them up for a decade beforehand. The ID3 looks great from some angles and pretty terrible from others, imo.

 

[turbobrick240]

Tesla Semi prototype put to work delivering new Teslas:
https://electrek-co.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/electrek.co/2020/06/26/tesla-semi-spotted-used-deliver-vehicles-end-of-quarter-push/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15932811101817&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Felectrek.co%2F2020%2F06%2F26%2Ftesla-semi-spotted-used-deliver-vehicles-end-of-quarter-push%2Famp%2F%23aoh%3D15932811101817%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s

 

[wxman]

turbobrick - did you see the analysis of HD trucks (diesel vs. electric) by UC Davis (Andrew Burke, Lew Fulton, "Analysis of advanced battery-electric long haul trucks: batteries, performance, and economics")?

The electric semi truck is only competitive with diesel semi trucks if battery costs fall to $100/kWh and electricity costs <$0.10/kWh. Since the Tesla superchargers' fee is currently $0.28/kWh, is that really possible? Also, doesn't extremely high charging rates damage batteries over many charging cycles?

Also note that the electric semi truck batteries would weight ~7 tons, and reduce payload by ~26% vs. a comparable diesel semi truck.

 

[turbobrick240]

Hey wxman, no I haven't seen that UC Davis analysis, but I'll check it out tonight. I think you're right that battery costs need to come down some more for BEV heavy duty trucks to be cost competitive with diesel trucks for long haul trucking routes.

Commercial trucks may not get charged the same supercharger rates as passenger cars. And a lot of the charging will be done at home base at whatever commercial rate they pay for power. The growth will start in areas other than long haul, and after a few years the costs should drop enough to be competitive in long haul as well.

 

[nayr]

charge rates grow though as the battery pack grows, usually charge rates are measured in C, where 1C = Capacity in AH.. Lithiums will take 1C charge easy but its bad for longevity so they cap it at 0.5C typically for "quick charging".. but if your battery pack doubles in size you can easily handle twice the power incoming as things scale up.. otherwise it'll take twice as long to charge.. For Example a 100AH LFP is 100A charge at 1C, 50A at 0.5C and if I charge at 0.5C and double the capacity I'm now charging at 0.25C

A Big commercial truck may have enough batteries/payload capacity to make a Supercharger look small/slow.

 

[ticaf]

Tesla electric semis make little sense unless some new kind of super battery is invented.
Nikola hydrogen fuel cell semis make more sense from a technical point of view. Unfortunately for them, they don't have t a talented Musk clone to accelerate the company forward.

Regarding operating cost, one thing not mentioned, is that road taxes need to be paid somehow. So the current math for Tesla's semis is even worse if one includes road taxes.

My guess is Musk is betting on self drivability for Tesla's semis.

 

[turbobrick240]

Hydrogen fuel cells are cool, and I'm sure they'll find some useful applications, but I don't think it will be in road transport. They just lack efficiency. You can take 10 units of grid power to make 5 units of hydrogen power or you can use all 10 units to power a BEV directly. Or alternatively you make the hydrogen from fossil fuels, which basically defeats the whole purpose.

 

[ticaf]

Hydrogen fuel cells are cool, and I'm sure they'll find some useful applications, but I don't think it will be in road transport. They just lack efficiency. You can take 10 units of grid power to make 5 units of hydrogen power or you can use all 10 units to power a BEV directly. Or alternatively you make the hydrogen from fossil fuels, which basically defeats the whole purpose.

I don't believe your numbers are current. hydrogen production efficiency is a moving target, and current efficiency for water electrolysis is around 80%, compared to battery charging which is maybe 90% efficient. then we have the problem of compressing the gas, I'm not sure how much energy is lost there. but research is being done on solid state hydrogen storage.

plenty of pros and cons, for both batteries and hydrogen, and it can be difficult to compare side to side. what is certain, as of today, is that 15000lbs of battery (or whatever it is) for a semi is not great for payload efficiency, not to mention environmental impact of mining all the minerals for the battery.

hydrogen will also be a great storage medium for renewable energy, much more environmentally friendly than building batteries.

 

[turbobrick240]

https://insideevs-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/insideevs.com/news/406676/battery-electric-hydrogen-fuel-cell-efficiency-comparison/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15933008133296&amp_ct=1593300878685&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Finsideevs.com%2Fnews%2F406676%2Fbattery-electric-hydrogen-fuel-cell-efficiency-comparison%2Famp%2F%23aoh%3D15933008133296%26amp_ct%3D1593300878685%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%26amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s

The biggest difference is battery electric is a proven technology with millions of cars on the road. Hydrogen fuel cells are still a glimmer in the eye of the Japanese automakers. And, if you think electric charging stations are scarce, try to road trip in a hydrogen car and see how far you get.

 

[ticaf]

well, I am talking about FEV for trucks, not cars. Agreed, for cars, BEV is probably the way to go; however if customers keep asking for more range, FEV will enter the picture, but currently the technology is not mature for cars, even if the japanese are pushing for it.

The article you mention does not show the whole picture. The complete overall efficiency is not trivial and is a moving target. As demand for lightweight electric vehicles (e.g. trucks, planes, boats), more investment will be made in hydrogen fuel cell technology.

 

[turbobrick240]

The same fundamental physics that makes FCVs less than half as energy efficient as BEVs applies to heavy duty trucking too. I wouldn't get too excited about Nikola. They have an obnoxious hype man who has managed to manufacture exactly nothing in the many years he's been at it. I have no idea why the media and market suddenly took an interest. Nikola's vaporware is still as elusive as ever.

 

[ticaf]

yes, Nikola is very obscure about their technology. It seems like they are using some kind of Bosch fuel cell. I'd like to see their stuff and get the specs on weight, efficiency, etc.
Vapourware it is for now. Amazing they are valuated more than Ford, and have no products nor revenues! is it the next Theranos ?

 

[turbobrick240]

Probably. I know I wouldn't want to be the guy left holding those magical shares when the music stops playing.

 

[GoFaster]

Compressing hydrogen for storage in a practical volume takes about a third of the energy content of the hydrogen itself, and there's no practical way to get that back when expanding it. Storing the hydrogen in some sort of chemical compound doesn't make the hydrogen just magically attach itself to said compound and then release itself at will, either. Storage and transport is a nightmare. It chemically attacks some metals ("hydrogen embrittlement"), it leaks through some materials, it leaks out through the tiniest gaps.

I was involved in a prototype hydrogen fuel cell project for a large retailer who were going to be using it to operate their forklifts in their warehouse. It was expensive. As far as I know, it went nowhere beyond that initial prototype, and <checks files> that was in 2012. <checks google maps satellite view for similar system at another facility - it's plainly visible if it were there! - Nope.>

 

[Daemon64]

Did anyone see this: https://www.carscoops.com/2020/06/2...reaks-cover-with-sharper-design-updated-tech/

So it appears that the 2021 Q5 45 TSFI will be a 12v MHEV, and the 2021 Q5 55 - Will be a full PHEV. ( They also somehow made the SQ5, .4s faster to 60 so 4.7s ), and that in Europe it will only be offered as a Twin-SCR Dosed 2.0 TDI. ( 201 HP / 295 ft/lbs ).

Overall this is GREAT news for the general Market, that means each and every option of Q5 this year will have statistically and potentially significantly reduced emissions.

I was very interested to see that the 45 TSFI is a 12V mild hybrid because there was no info on that actually happening. Good things to come it appears. We need all improvements we can get.

 

[tikal]

Regarding the use of the word "being progressive' and so forth and to bring it more on topic of the automotive world, I would argue that driving an energy efficient vehicle being a TDI, an EV or hybrid is definitively "progressive".

What else would it mean then?

 

[tikal]

Little by little it's getting there for non-Tesla EVs.
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...rst-cross-country-fast-charging-route-for-evs

And, how is the growth rate of non-Tesla EVs? Is it picking up steam yet?

 

[nayr]

Did anyone see this: https://www.carscoops.com/2020/06/2...reaks-cover-with-sharper-design-updated-tech/
So it appears that the 2021 Q5 45 TSFI will be a 12v MHEV, and the 2021 Q5 55 - Will be a full PHEV. ( They also somehow made the SQ5, .4s faster to 60 so 4.7s ), and that in Europe it will only be offered as a Twin-SCR Dosed 2.0 TDI. ( 201 HP / 295 ft/lbs ).
Overall this is GREAT news for the general Market, that means each and every option of Q5 this year will have statistically and potentially significantly reduced emissions.
I was very interested to see that the 45 TSFI is a 12V mild hybrid because there was no info on that actually happening. Good things to come it appears. We need all improvements we can get.

The 2020 Q5 55 PHEV had a 5.0s 0-60, of course they hadda find some way to shave off .4s otherwise the S Model was Slower than the non S model and that didnt seem right.

From the article it looks like again they wont give us black optics on the PHEV, bummer.. oh well, nothing some vinyl wrap cant take care of.

Thanks for the link, im in the market for one of these fine machines.

 

[Tin Man]

Did anyone see this: https://www.carscoops.com/2020/06/2...reaks-cover-with-sharper-design-updated-tech/

So it appears that the 2021 Q5 45 TSFI will be a 12v MHEV, and the 2021 Q5 55 - Will be a full PHEV. ( They also somehow made the SQ5, .4s faster to 60 so 4.7s ), and that in Europe it will only be offered as a Twin-SCR Dosed 2.0 TDI. ( 201 HP / 295 ft/lbs ).

Overall this is GREAT news for the general Market, that means each and every option of Q5 this year will have statistically and potentially significantly reduced emissions.

I was very interested to see that the 45 TSFI is a 12V mild hybrid because there was no info on that actually happening. Good things to come it appears. We need all improvements we can get.

Audi having increased complexity with its dubious reliability record gives pause (although there are design areas where mild hybrid systems are simple enough). Saying that reduced emissions will be "potentially significant" loses the fact that new cars are already emitting very little through the exhaust (while concentrating on industrial and construction emissions is the way to go). Audi interiors are ruined by the tacked on iPad look while touch pads should be eliminated as an unnecessary and unsafe distraction.

 

[El Dobro]

And, how is the growth rate of non-Tesla EVs? Is it picking up steam yet?

To paraphrase a quote from a movie, if you build it, they will come. As the charging networks grow, I'm sure EV adoption will be right behind it. The pandemic didn't exactly help any growth, but that too will pass.

 

[Daemon64]

Nayr - You're 100% right. I was just questioning the enhancement since the power and torque figures are identical to the outgoing model. So I am quite curious where they picked up .4s 0 - 60. Probably a combination of things, but interesting none the less.

Tin Man - While I agree with you that new cars are more efficient vs older cars. That's not always the case and SUV's and trucks in particular need some help there compared to passenger cars. Also when you consider the amount of people using them is always going up. Any small reduction in emissions goes a crazy long way. I agree on the ipad and etc.. look, unfortunately that is a design trend that was started by Tesla I believe, and ALL manufacturers are following suit.

El Dobro - Field of Dreams is the movie you're thinking of. Most modern adaptation is Kevin Costner. I also agree that EV adoption, regardless of vehicle make, lives and dies by its charging network.

 

[Tin Man]

Interestingly, Mazda is going the customized ICE route for better emissions and fuel economy while eliminating large touch screens on at least its model 3. They are also electrifying slowly.

 

[nayr]

The 2020 Q5e loaner I had for a month was the first Loaner I had in my life that got better Fuel Economy than the Diesel I took in.. and the kicker? it was fast as ****, quicker than the SQ5..

Audi's dubious reliability record? Touchpad is too distracting? Some grade A BS right here folks.. Guy drives a BMW and a Jag and says Audi is dubious reliability wise? lol

MMI is 100% usable without the touchpad, it only exists to make data entry quicker instead of flipping through the alphabet one letter at a time you can write out the address.. Neither of which you do while driving unless you got a co-pilot operating it.. I suppose you'd rather have a giant touch screen display full of finger print smudges and playing russian roulette trying to press a button on a rough road.

 

[Tin Man]

Audi's dubious reliability record? Touchpad is too distracting? Some grade A BS right here folks.. Guy drives a BMW and a Jag and says Audi is dubious reliability wise? lol

Both cars are stone-cold reliable diesels. Enjoy your Audi/VW and hope it lasts anywhere near where mine do....

 

[Tin Man]

https://www.bmwblog.com/2016/02/01/whos-more-reliable-bmw-audi-or-mercedes-benz/
"Under six years, all of the cars are relatively similar, in terms of cost and reliability. This is because the cars are pretty new and typically have less than 100,000 miles on them, so not much is going to go wrong, at least not many important things. However, Audi is still the brand with the most problems and costs the most to fix. BMW sits in the middle with Mercedes being the most reliable, therefor the cheapest. After six years, things start to change. As the cars rack up more miles and, possibly, more owners, they do tend to break. Audi is still the least reliable and most expensive of the three brands, with BMW still in the middle and Mercedes leading the pack. However, after twelve years, things tend to even out again, as the cars are quite old and people tend to live with minor problems without having them fixed."

BMW is well known for excellent diesels while making really iffy gasoline V8's consistently. My German mechanic believes BMW doesn't really know how to build a proper V8 while generally Mercedes does....

 

[turbobrick240]

My uncle bought a PHEV Pacifica minivan yesterday. He's quite pleased with it. He's also owned a number of cool vehicles- several air-cooled busses, a '67 Porsche 912, a Corvair, a 80's Toyota van, a Boxster, a red line Saturn sky, among many. I'm excited to see the Pacifica, he's driving it out to the farm this afternoon.

 

[Daemon64]

Nayr,

That's good that you seemed to like it. I will say that is fairly interesting to me going forward if Audi never releases another stateside TDI which I believe will be the case. Because like you I think of the efficiency of it. That vehicle ticked MOST of the boxes for me. The only thing I didn't like myself was that the Q5 55e is 200lbs heavier than my Q5 TDI. 4650 vs 4450 lbs. But having said that if you optioned the Q55e w/out the pano, it has been shown to increase the weight by 200lbs by itself. So that could do it for me. Also it would shave a little time off the 0-60 ... hahaha... getting you just below 5s. Would probably make a decent efficiency gain in EV only mode.... but I digress...