Volkswagen's Clean Air Act violations on 2009+ TDIs spark huge recall, investigations

[PlaneCrazy]

NOx is actually VERY visible... aside from smog... even just the purified gas looks dirty. It's also far more toxic that I had thought.

In the concentrations we're talking about though, the toxicity is more statistical than a linear dose-related toxicity. It's much like the stochastic vs deterministic effects of radiation poisoning. Above a certain dose, everyone is affected by the toxicity and it's effect is directly proportional to exposure. Below that dose, the effect is stochastic, that is, the probability of being affected goes up but not everybody will be affected, generally only a fairly small proportion of the population group.

So if we're talking "the chance of getting asthma doubles because of the noxious VW emissions" (a number I pulled out of a hat for illustrative purposes), but without those emissions say 2 people in 10,000 will be affected, "doubling" the effect only means 4 people in 10,000 will be affected. It doesn't mean people will start dropping like flies when a TDI drives by! (again these are just numbers pulled out of a hat to illustrate the principles).

So while those ugly bottles may look impressive, people will be exposed to nowhere near that concentration, the effect will be stochastic and not deterministic, and folks need to maintain a sense of perspective on all this; in the US and Canada, 1 in 100 cars being a TDI putting out double of a very low concentration (the legal limit) to begin with, will have no noticeable effect on health.

We need less sensationalism, and more science when discussing this issue.

I'm not suggesting it was right for VW to intentionally blow by the limit; if everyone did there'd be a problem. It's like seeing a sign in a national park: don't pick the flowers. You may think "what's one measly little flower going to mean?", but 1 million visitors picking a flower is no longer a small issue.

VW picked a flower figuratively-speaking, and luckily, no other manufacturers have picked one (or so we hope). So the impact of picking that flower will be very small, but the precedent set, if not punished, would lead to a much greater effect.

The point of all this is to put to rest the "OMG I'm poisoning babies by driving my TDI" type nonsense the trolls have put out on these pages. You're not. The effect of 1% of the N. American car fleet spread over such a large area will be negligible. The problem is really VW vs EPA. VW picked a figurative flower in the park. They will be fined for it, just as a visitor to a park will if caught picking a real flower in a national park. The reason is to dissuade everyone from picking flowers and ruining the park.

 

[nwdiver]

Do you think VW will come up with a solution such as AdBlue ?

The question is will they retrofit effected TDI cars with it...

 

[nwdiver]

We need less sensationalism, and more science when discussing this issue.

VW picked a figurative flower in the park. They will be fined for it, just as a visitor to a park will if caught picking a real flower in a national park. The reason is to dissuade everyone from picking flowers and ruining the park.

Statistically VW has caused ~4k premature deaths...

With the caveat that there is a benefit to the lower CO2 emissions of TDIs.

11M cars is not a small numbers... that falls under your example of being a 'big deal'

As soon as they develop a battery pack with a 500 mile range you can count me in.

I can count on 1 hand the number of times I've wished for >200 miles of range in the last 3 years and 75k miles of road trips. When your drive way is your gas station and you can refuel for free while you eat lunch it's a whole new world. Those conveniences more than compensate for losing range that I rarely ever used.

 

[redpill]

As soon as they develop a battery pack with a 500 mile range you can count me in.

Wow, how often do you drive 500+ miles in a day? I don't think I'd want to do that in any car.

The question is will they retrofit effected TDI cars with it...

It's not about capability, of course they could do it. The only consideration is the $$$. Or should I say the €€€.

 

[PeteZ06]

How is it that VW had to cheat to pass emissions to keep the performance? How is the Chevy Cruz, BMW 328D and MB E250 able to do it with same or better performance and same or better MPG's?

 

[Tailwagger]

I remain a diesel advocate, though I'll admit my faith in VW/Audi has been severely damaged. For those advocating EV, lets recall the news from only a few months ago from Audi related to producing syn-diesel. Powered by solar, born of water and CO2, this seems like a far better solution to me. Of course, they could be lying about this as well. http://www.geek.com/science/audi-develops-synthetic-diesel-from-co2-1621481/

 

[scooperhsd]

It would not surprise me that VW will not have a "one size fits all" solution - there will be a range of options, depending on age , condition, and complexity of fix. 2015/16's - just need some reflashing, and maybe some warrantee adjustment. The newer the car, the more expensive a fix the non-DEF equipped cars are likely to get.

 

[rustycat]

I have a couple questions to ask to the older, wiser crowd.
The Passat already has urea injection, what are some of the proposed solutions? just a software patch to run in testing mode? Will more urea injection cut down on NOx?
Class action lawsuits, who is joining/considering? My coworker said for now stay away, and that generally lawyers are the only winners.
Is it possible for the EPA to ensure drivers comply with the recall? what is going to stop people from cheating on that? also couldn't you just download ECU data, then flash it back on right after you have the recall installed? (given of course the recall is only software for my situation)

My expectation is VW will be very accommodating to Owners that are caught up in this. Class Action Suits are almost always brought about to enrich the law firms and not the people that have suffered damage. There are exceptions, but, as a rule of thumb, figure the Class Action awards won't make you whole.
I fully expect VW to make a very accommodating offer very quickly. Since they were aware of the possibility of something like this for the last 18 months, I'll bet they have created damage control plans to try and get in front of this massive black mark to their reputation and net worth.
They know it will take years to recover from this mess, and the only way they will even survive it is through a massive unprecedented display of payout and accommodation-- you can count on it.

The fact they didn't dispute the claim of fraud is a massive indicator they had looked at the information and found no reasonable way to deflect it/ dispute it. It was shocking how quickly they admitted fraud and completed corporate reshuffling.

 

[drywaller]

Just a question since people mention it from time to time:

There are people who are actually ashamed to be driving a TDi now? As in real emotional distress in the form of shame ashamed?

The vast majority of people don't even know the model of car they drive, much less what a TDi is, much less be able to say something about the current scandal other than it's a scandal. I owned a Prius for 3.5 years, and I got far more chuckles for owning a Prius than I do my GSW. Average Joe is exponentially more perplexed by the fact that I own a station wagon than what powers it.

Tl;DR: People are weird.

If we are forced to get rid of, upgrade with the end result being poor fuel economy I'm going too transplant the motor I to a VW bus. Eco ****s will love that ehh.

 

[VeeDubTDI]

In the concentrations we're talking about though, the toxicity is more statistical than a linear dose-related toxicity. It's much like the stochastic vs deterministic effects of radiation poisoning. Above a certain dose, everyone is affected by the toxicity and it's effect is directly proportional to exposure. Below that dose, the effect is stochastic, that is, the probability of being affected goes up but not everybody will be affected, generally only a fairly small proportion of the population group.
So if we're talking "the chance of getting asthma doubles because of the noxious VW emissions" (a number I pulled out of a hat for illustrative purposes), but without those emissions say 2 people in 10,000 will be affected, "doubling" the effect only means 4 people in 10,000 will be affected. It doesn't mean people will start dropping like flies when a TDI drives by! (again these are just numbers pulled out of a hat to illustrate the principles).
So while those ugly bottles may look impressive, people will be exposed to nowhere near that concentration, the effect will be stochastic and not deterministic, and folks need to maintain a sense of perspective on all this; in the US and Canada, 1 in 100 cars being a TDI putting out double of a very low concentration (the legal limit) to begin with, will have no noticeable effect on health.
We need less sensationalism, and more science when discussing this issue.
I'm not suggesting it was right for VW to intentionally blow by the limit; if everyone did there'd be a problem. It's like seeing a sign in a national park: don't pick the flowers. You may think "what's one measly little flower going to mean?", but 1 million visitors picking a flower is no longer a small issue.
VW picked a flower figuratively-speaking, and luckily, no other manufacturers have picked one (or so we hope). So the impact of picking that flower will be very small, but the precedent set, if not punished, would lead to a much greater effect.
The point of all this is to put to rest the "OMG I'm poisoning babies by driving my TDI" type nonsense the trolls have put out on these pages. You're not. The effect of 1% of the N. American car fleet spread over such a large area will be negligible. The problem is really VW vs EPA. VW picked a figurative flower in the park. They will be fined for it, just as a visitor to a park will if caught picking a real flower in a national park. The reason is to dissuade everyone from picking flowers and ruining the park.

You illustrate a very good point. For the record, however, we are talking about many more times than double the allowable limit. Double it, double it again, then double that, and once again, and we're getting close. The numbers are still very small due to TDIs being pretty rare in the USA. But once you start looking at fleet averages and realizing that VW's fleet is nearly 25% diesel, the problem gets bigger, at least as far as VW is concerned.

 

[Bluebaron]

Ill just leave this here...

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[rte2MA]

Chevy did, EPA compliant, more power, and higher hwy MPG - but nobody cares.

A while back I test drove a 2012 Chevy Cruze Eco. The HP and torque were fine, but the interior was cheap and the car was cramped. There was no spare tire - it came with an inflator kit instead. At that point I had driven TDIs for 10 years. Given what I was used to, the Cruze felt like it might blow away in a strong cross wind.
Chevy is the only other manufacturer who has managed to market a passenger car diesel at a price point for the rest of us. It just couldn't compete with VW's upscale styling and quality build. As trade-off's go, Chevy maybe threaded that needle correctly. Indeed, VW went a bit in that direction when they cheapened the interior of the Jetta TDI. But VW wasn't willing to drop down to the level of a Chevy. VW thought everyone should get a spare tire. Looks like VW's commitment to a quality ride contributed to the mess we're all in now (among other things).

 

[PlaneCrazy]

You illustrate a very good point. For the record, however, we are talking about many more times than double the allowable limit. Double it, double it again, then double that, and once again, and we're getting close. The numbers are still very small due to TDIs being pretty rare in the USA. But once you start looking at fleet averages and realizing that VW's fleet is nearly 25% diesel, the problem gets bigger, at least as far as VW is concerned.

While the emissions of the TDI are multiple times over the legal limit, nobody has, AFAIK, predicted the probability increase of adverse health effects. We are still talking very low concentrations where the effects are probabilistic and not deterministic. It would be interesting to see some non-biased data on that.

 

[titleist1]

....if you think people here can't stand the TDI DRG just wait until they drive Cruz...whatta horrible transmission that thing has.

By the way has anyone suggested a downstream NOx filter on the Passat (since it already has the Urea system)??

 

[ChemMan]

I remain a diesel advocate, though I'll admit my faith in VW/Audi has been severely damaged. For those advocating EV, lets recall the news from only a few months ago from Audi related to producing syn-diesel. Powered by solar, born of water and CO2, this seems like a far better solution to me. Of course, they could be lying about this as well. http://www.geek.com/science/audi-develops-synthetic-diesel-from-co2-1621481/

Audi's synthetic fuel is good at controlling fuel costs and (potentially) slowing the rate of CO2 levels but it doesn't change any of the pollution related difficulties. The reality is that making a clean diesel engine is difficult. As we are learning from the VW scandal making a small high performance diesel engine that is also clean is even more difficult.

 

[Sooner]

Thanks for posting that. I'm surprised no one else has commented. I must admit I had no idea that EVs would be worse in several respects to conventional fuel given how much pollution power generation creates. I've always heard the "battery" argument, but never had any numbers assigned to the impacts of the battery fab, but this shows it is the grid pollution that matters most.

Earlier in this thread it was shown from EPA sources of NOx/MWh generation and a typical EVs consumption of 2.5 miles per KWh that the EVs create about 0.2g/mile for NOx or effectively 3x over the standard of 0.07g/mile for NOx. Apparently is ok for EVs just because its not coming out of the tailpipe.

Surprised and pleased by folks putting a pencil to the EV analysis. Big world with lots of people which poses lots of problems with EVs in volume. All those EVs need fuel from some source after the production costs as all have noted.

Happy to restate VW admitted fraud here based on a small scale University report. There needs to be more procedural checking to verify all of this in a large scale systematic manner. The quick admission by VW indicates likely in the ballpark.

The NOx from the 500,000 TDI's based on the WVU report raised the overall per capita NOx count from the current 100,000 grams (100 kg) to what? You can estimate from the WVU report yourself based on whatever mileage you want to assume but you may be surprised the increase is less than one ounce per person.

Again clean diesel NOx wise not so much. Less CO2 yes. Fine VW, achieve common sense standards but take care of the TDI owners while not destroying a car company.

We still do not know the performance of the redesigned 2015 and onward TDI. It has best chance of making the grade while the older ones may pose a problem but based on what I said about one ounce of NOx per year -- I hope common sense prevails with regulators.

 

[PlaneCrazy]

Statistically VW has caused ~4k premature deaths...

With the caveat that there is a benefit to the lower CO2 emissions of TDIs.

11M cars is not a small numbers... that falls under your example of being a 'big deal'




I can count on 1 hand the number of times I've wished for >200 miles of range in the last 3 years and 75k miles of road trips. When your drive way is your gas station and you can refuel for free while you eat lunch it's a whole new world. Those conveniences more than compensate for losing range that I rarely ever used.

That link is from Mother Jones and is by no means a scientific study. It is too simplistic, for example it does not consider the difference in impact between a high smog urban area, and rural highways where TDIs tend to drive the most of their mileage.

Yes, the effect will be greater in areas where VW diesels make up a larger percentage of the fleet. However, some of those 11m cars ended up in jurisdictions with higher limits and are no doubt legal in terms of output so the issue there is not the defeat software but the local legislation.

 

[nesdon]

I wonder if that the two large pick-ups in that chart may be gas not diesel, this is important info that should be called out. It's really misleading to compare otto to diesel when making these comparisons as the emission profiles of gas and diesel are so much different, with the catalysts in gas cars easily falling far below the NOx limits diesels struggle to attain and vice versa with HC CO and CO2.

 

[pknopp]

I think the issue is that they can't make it a value proposition at the horsepower levels that N. Americans think is barely adequate. I remember reading a road test of my former Passat 2.0T wagon saying that 200 hp and 207 lb-ft @ 1700 rpm was "underpowered". Nothing could be further from the truth.
In Europe, the smallest TDI in the Polo is a 1.2L 3-cyl unit making a whopping 75 hp, yet many people are perfectly happy with that. The mainstream TDI in Mk V and VI cars was the 105 hp 1.6L, not the 140 hp 2.0L.
We want to have our cake and eat it too: high horsepower, very low fuel consumption, and squeaky clean emissions. It seems impossible (at least without SCR) to have all three. The squeeze is going to become even greater when the difference in highway fuel consumption on the highway, between a TSI and TDI, is about 0.6 L/100 km.

I've said many times I wish I could have purchased a 3 cyl TDI that got better mpg even at the cost of performance.

I very well may be in the minority but it wasn't that long ago that it was said that Hybrids wouldn't sell.

 

[whipwarrior]

Either VW should trade us eco-friendly eGolfs for all offending TDIs, or the Germans need to bring out the high-performance Schauberger vortex powerplants developed for their Vril Haunebu saucers during WW2:

I'd buy a V-Golf!

 

[ChemMan]

I wonder if that the two large pick-ups in that chart may be gas not diesel, this is important info that should be called out. It's really misleading to compare otto to diesel when making these comparisons as the emission profiles of gas and diesel are so much different, with the catalysts in gas cars easily falling far below the NOx limits diesels struggle to attain and vice versa with HC CO and CO2.

Those are just the legal limit not any specific vehicle. The limit is the same for both gasoline and diesel vehicles.

 

[2009-TDI]

Any lawsuit in Los Angeles county for the buyback? I want all my money back!

 

[tsingtao]

NOx is actually VERY visible... aside from smog... even just the purified gas looks dirty. It's also far more toxic that I had thought.

Yep, in the winter here we have what is called "The brown cloud."

 

[aja8888]

Garbage? Thats strange, I dont seem to recall mentioning you....

Yikes! I smell time off coming..

 

[Steve Addy]

Or maybe because they are violations of completely different laws. You should focus on how this highlights how ****ty our safety laws are and aupport getting them equal or better than our environmental laws

Perhaps, but they're both Federal laws, only the regulatory agency is different. The GM issue in the end was a civil penalty, the fine was nothing but a slap on the wrist, and again people died.

I don't see an issue with safety, vehicles are tested in the US and people have every opportunity to see the results before purchase yet I doubt that even half the new vehicle buyers review the data.

The real problems we have with safety are due to inept drivers or people who don't pay attention. It's a consequence of poor driver education and testing standards. In the US licenses are given away like Halloween candy. Once a license is acquired the rule book is thrown out the window and there's zilch in terms or retesting for renewal.

VW hasn't paid a single penny in fines yet. The $18B is just the maximum possible fine. The EPA will use that to ensure VW fixes the problem (i.e paying $1B fine plus fixing the problem is cheaper than paying $18B).

Very likely VW fine ends up around $1B or so. A lot depends on how cooperative they are.

Very true, but even so there seems to be a mismatch between the deed and the penalty, even if VW is fined only $1B.

And to follow on with what others have said let's put the EV discussion to rest, take it elsewhere people.

Steve

 

[mmn]

A good take on the emissions debacle - EPA effectively wants a zero emissions combustion engine and they'll stop at nothing to achieve it:

http://ericpetersautos.com/2015/09/23/crucified-by-uncle/

 

[JSWTDI09]

I have a couple questions to ask to the older, wiser crowd.

The Passat already has urea injection, what are some of the proposed solutions? just a software patch to run in testing mode? Will more urea injection cut down on NOx?

Maybe, this could be all (or part) or VW's "fix" for this issue in your car.

Class action lawsuits, who is joining/considering? My coworker said for now stay away, and that generally lawyers are the only winners.

I agree with your co-worker.

Is it possible for the EPA to ensure drivers comply with the recall? what is going to stop people from cheating on that? also couldn't you just download ECU data, then flash it back on right after you have the recall installed? (given of course the recall is only software for my situation)

We don't know, for sure. Enforcement of this might come down to the state level, so it will vary depending on where you live.

Answers in blue above.

Have Fun!

Don

 

[patbob]

The question is will they retrofit effected TDI cars with it...

Absolutely not, not when a software change can bring it into compliance. After all, they already have our money, what do they care if they have to completely kill performance to bring our cars into compliance.

 

[JBell]

Absolutely not, not when a software change can bring it into compliance. After all, they already have our money, what do they care if they have to completely kill performance to bring our cars into compliance.

I would imagine that's when the civil lawsuits come into play. The car won't perform as advertised when purchased. It's a catch 22 that a lot of people are waiting to see how it pans out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mammoth]

How is it that VW had to cheat to pass emissions to keep the performance? How is the Chevy Cruz, BMW 328D and MB E250 able to do it with same or better performance and same or better MPG's?

They all have urea (ad-blue) SCR Systems that are functional at all times. The Passat's perhaps only worked fully during a dyno test (?). The JSW doesn't have this system at all. The Chevy Cruz's engine also has a number of modifications that appear to focus on achieving limits on NOx, and perhaps point to the route that VW needs to take:

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2015/09/tech-dive-chevy-cruze-stays-clean/