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General Automotive General automotive discussion. This is intended to be a discussion about other not VW and Diesel cars you may have or interested in.

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Old November 27th, 2017, 12:39   #3556
kjclow
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My fear is that if/when Tesla gets big enough to threaten the big 3, they will combine muscle and force Tesla to either be acquired or just disappear. It's happened many times before. With global competition, I guess I should say the big 5. Ford, GM, Fiat, Toyota, and VWAG
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Old November 27th, 2017, 12:56   #3557
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Here's the main thing with TSLA that makes them unique: vision and actually working towards that vision.

None of the legacy automakers have yet proven that they're working towards a strong EV vision, and until that happens, TSLA will be quite highly valued. And, while there are Chinese manufacturers like BYD that are visibly working towards an EV vision, they aren't doing things to near the extent of Tesla (and are focusing on transit and other fleet applications), and aren't positioned in the luxury space, so I don't see them taking TSLA's valuation down.
In terms of an investment, there comes a time when a vision needs to turn a profit. Steve Jobs imagined 1000 songs in your pocket. He made that happen & a struggling computer company transformed into a multi-billion dollar media powerhouse.

No doubt EVs are cool, but in the end; they are just cars. Teslas have cool features...Big deal. Better cars perhaps, and with advanced features, but the reality is they are still cars - not gamechangers. . Steve Jobs's vision turned an entire industry upside down. Musk is rattling the cage a little, but in the end, he's a car salesman that inexplicably wants to go to mars.

I disagree about Tesla's valuation being linked to the luxury car space. All the excitement is coming from their new "affordable" model - not so much from the S or the X. The Kia Soul is a huge success, mostly because at an MSRP of $16,100 - it really is affordable. I could see Korea or China selling an amazing EV for under $20,000 years before Tesla can do it. If or when the competition finds a way to make that everyman's EV profitable - they will. At that point, Tesla is in serious trouble.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 13:32   #3558
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In addition to having a vision and a brilliant mind, Musk is incredibly wealthy, and is "all in" on his business ventures. I don't doubt that he would expend a considerable portion of his fortune, if needed, to carry Tesla over until it becomes profitable.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 14:42   #3559
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Originally Posted by kjclow View Post
My fear is that if/when Tesla gets big enough to threaten the big 3, they will combine muscle and force Tesla to either be acquired or just disappear. It's happened many times before. With global competition, I guess I should say the big 5. Ford, GM, Fiat, Toyota, and VWAG
And how would they do that?

TSLA is a publicly traded company. The only way the other manufacturers could "force" Tesla to disappear is if they came up with competitive products that beat Tesla at their own game ... and I wouldn't exclude this possibility although it looks like it would be at least a few years down the road. You can't "force" a publicly traded company to "be acquired" ... someone has to be willing to buy a majority the outstanding shares (at a premium that is high enough for current shareholders to accept the deal). At current valuations TSLA is extremely expensive, and even if there were companies that "could" buy them out, why "should" they buy them at a premium to today's inflated valuations of TSLA despite fairly obvious trouble on the horizon? It doesn't make any sense.

Of course, if TSLA runs into trouble such that the share price crashes, then that's quite another matter, and I wouldn't exclude this possibility from happening, either ...

One of the things Tesla has done right has been recognizing that the cars and the charging infrastructure go hand in hand. The other manufacturers have been seemingly doing their best to make the charging infrastructure someone else's problem ... and until this changes, Tesla has an ace in the hole. If the other manufacturers gang up and get serious about installing SAE Combo quick-charging stations *everywhere* ... including across the street from every single Tesla Supercharger! ... and come up with good products, Tesla probably won't be able to keep up. The Model S is 6 model years old with no sign of a next generation, or even a makeover, on the horizon.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 18:10   #3560
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The Model S is 6 model years old with no sign of a next generation, or even a makeover, on the horizon.
I would argue that the Model S has seen more changes in the last 5 years than the Jetta has in 15 years. My 2012 P85 feels almost like an antique compared to a 2017 P100D. Tesla doesn't do 'generations' they don't even do 'model years' when there's an improvement that gets approved it goes into the next car.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 19:11   #3561
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I would argue that the Model S has seen more changes in the last 5 years than the Jetta has in 15 years. My 2012 P85 feels almost like an antique compared to a 2017 P100D. Tesla doesn't do 'generations' they don't even do 'model years' when there's an improvement that gets approved it goes into the next car.
One car is a 2012 P85. The other is a 2017 P100D.

I'm with you! I can't believe how much the Model S has changed over the years. It's a totally different car now.




Time to go trade in that old 2012 clunker for the 2017 model.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 19:49   #3562
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One of the things Tesla has done right has been recognizing that the cars and the charging infrastructure go hand in hand. The other manufacturers have been seemingly doing their best to make the charging infrastructure someone else's problem ... and until this changes, Tesla has an ace in the hole. If the other manufacturers gang up and get serious about installing SAE Combo quick-charging stations *everywhere* ... including across the street from every single Tesla Supercharger! ... and come up with good products, Tesla probably won't be able to keep up. The Model S is 6 model years old with no sign of a next generation, or even a makeover, on the horizon.
Tesla is doing the heavy lifting. I can't blame CEO's of Ford, GM, Toyota, et al making the absolute minimum investments in electric cars until they know how it's all shakes out.

Exxon Mobil is an energy company. There's no law I know of that prevents them from selling kWh's alongside gallons. Given a reasonable ROI, a nationwide rollout of DCFC stations, could happen.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 20:16   #3563
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Franz Holzhausen did an amazing job designing the exterior of the Model S (and the new Roadster). I don't think a major redesign could improve the aesthetics much. In fact, I don't like the current trend of many of the big auto manufacturers incorporating too many design elements and radical body lines in new models. Smooth, flowing lines look much better to my eye. A classic Porshce looks so much nicer than a Lamborghini, imo.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 21:06   #3564
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Yes, the smooth, flowing lines....like the classic jelly bean profile.
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Old November 27th, 2017, 21:25   #3565
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Exactly. The jellybean profile served the type 1 well for many, many years with just minor refreshes. And that design still brings smiles to many faces.
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Old November 28th, 2017, 03:55   #3566
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nwdiver View Post
I would argue that the Model S has seen more changes in the last 5 years than the Jetta has in 15 years. My 2012 P85 feels almost like an antique compared to a 2017 P100D. Tesla doesn't do 'generations' they don't even do 'model years' when there's an improvement that gets approved it goes into the next car.
Huh? You really do not know much about Volkswagens, do you. The [current] NCS Jetta is an entirely different platform than the --2010 car.

Given the fact that the NCS Jetta sells quite well in the markets in which it was intended, it likely will not need much changing at least for the next couple years.
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Old November 28th, 2017, 04:57   #3567
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The NCS, like the model S, also just got a light exterior refresh. I'd say the current Chrysler LX products got a heavy interior / exterior refresh, and I'm seeing a fair few of them on the road.

-J
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Maybe I should pay MYSELF to do bad work on my car!
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Old November 28th, 2017, 05:09   #3568
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I will fully grant that they did a very good job with the original design of the Model S and they still look good out on the road. It doesn't need an exterior makeover.

The interior, on the other hand ...
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Old November 28th, 2017, 05:15   #3569
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The seats have been redone twice now, and the "skin" on the screen interface has gotten a few major updates too.

-J
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Old November 28th, 2017, 05:52   #3570
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I will fully grant that they did a very good job with the original design of the Model S and they still look good out on the road. It doesn't need an exterior makeover.

The interior, on the other hand ...

The interior is awful. Like, really, really awful. I was thinking the 3 was going to be less bizarre, but it is just as bad. Sometimes, the wheel does NOT need reinventing.
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