Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

Probably why everything is so expensive there.

And those laws were meant to protect American ship builders, but those no longer exist. So, either repeal those laws, or figure out how to get new American ship builders and get them to be globally competitive.

oilhammer said:

Was adding to the conversation, was not specifically referring to refined petroleum products in general. Sorry I was not clearer. Just found it a bad situation when ships carrying items that may very well be destined for PR are passing right past them. Although I would think most urgently needed items would come from the continental US anyway. Toilet paper, bottled water, soap, food, diapers, clothes, etc. But just imagine for a moment that EVERYTHING in a local store like a Lowe's was suddenly GONE. And then think of all the items in that store that are NOT manufactured in the USA, and there are lots of them. Now imagine that all those imported items are on ships that have either gone through the Panama Canal (from southeast Asia, China mostly of course) or bigger ships that had to go around South America. Or any coming from Europe. They are all passing right by or very near PR. So that shovel that was made in China now takes three extra days to get to someone in PR. That was what the official used as an example.

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I don't think that matters. I doubt that anything would be offloaded from a ship to the dock to a Lowe's. Everything they need is already here on the US mainland. Politics and money are the factors, not logistics, in my opinion.

bhtooefr said:

And those laws were meant to protect American ship builders, but those no longer exist. So, either repeal those laws, or figure out how to get new American ship builders and get them to be globally competitive.

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The things that might make those shipyards competitive again would hurt other parts of the economy because of the trade wars that those changes in law would create.....

While many jobs were lost by the changes that opened up our economy to other imports, many more jobs were created so it's going to be a tradeoff. Create those jobs lose other jobs. I don't have the answer to that one.....

We really want to replace. Lost jobs? We need to rebuild our freeways, bridges and highways system.....China will soon have a larger more up to date highway system than we do, and I at least see that as being discaceful....

Generations of Americans worked all off the spoils of this enterprise their entire lives while we built our freeway system.

That money does not stay just in the building of those highways, but that well spent money goes to the mechanics who work on the equipment that build those highways, the houlers who handle the things needed to build those highways, the restaurants that feed those workers, all of the cities & communities that are alongside the routes being rebuilt....

I have friends & family who've who spent their entire working life working on working in industries that directly got their money from the building of those highways....

This is very far off topic.

We just returned our e-Golf off the lease. What a great car! It was not worth keeping though, the limited range made it an experimental commuter, frankly. My retired wife was the primary driver, we only put 7500 miles on it in two years. That was a heat-pump model and, with a range of a hundred miles at best with the heat pump, does it really matter that you might only get 85 miles with the regular heat? Neither is enough. VW credit tried to talk us into buying it off the lease but they still,wanted 15k for it, not worth it with 200 mile range cars on the near horizon...

If e-Golfs were in the $9-$12k range I'd have considered one. Having quick charge is nice, but no battery thermal management is a real bummer.

-J

compu_85 said:

If e-Golfs were in the $9-$12k range I'd have considered one. Having quick charge is nice, but no battery thermal management is a real bummer.

-J

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Yeah, they were originally going to have water cooling of the battery, then after testing in the desert, dropped it. They said the Panasonic sourced lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide did not warm appreciably during any foreseen circumstances involving normal use. But I think that may have meant they had to severely limit the charge cycle states thus lowering the car's range substantially.

Exactly. They put fast charge on the car, but then say you can't use it for consecutive charges because it makes the battery get too hot

Then you have the Fiat which has a battery and battery cooling system that supports fast charge, but they didn't want to change the shape of the fender to install the larger socket for fast charging (they couldn't have stuck it under the hood instead???)

-J

Which is why as I have said all along, the "regular" cars adapted to EV use tend to fall short because they seem to be a compromise, despite having generally far better curb appeal and less of a rolling space capsule overstuffed with technology most do not care about.

I do like the eGolf's clever battery packaging, though. Got to hand it to them there, they worked with what they had in a creative manner.

This makes me think that they (the manufacturers) just do not take EVs all that seriously. Which is kind of dumb.

That's why they're called compliance cars, after all...

bhtooefr said:

That's why they're called compliance cars, after all...

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Agreed. Which is why the GM guy at a recent tech training that I attended was saying that the way things are going, Chevrolet dealers will be literally forced into giving away the Bolt in order to sell the vehicles [most] people want, to offset any CAFE/carbon credits/etc. that the gov't may push forward. The Spark and Sonic are already largely subsidized by Silverado and Tahoe sales.

Reminds me of that Aston Martin / IQ deal, LOL.

oilhammer said:

Agreed. Which is why the GM guy at a recent tech training that I attended was saying that the way things are going, Chevrolet dealers will be literally forced into giving away the Bolt in order to sell the vehicles [most] people want, to offset any CAFE/carbon credits/etc. that the gov't may push forward. The Spark and Sonic are already largely subsidized by Silverado and Tahoe sales.

Reminds me of that Aston Martin / IQ deal, LOL.

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They could, you know, make electric (or hybrid) vehicles that people want instead of half-assed compliance versions that aren't a good value for a litany of reasons. Just because there is a market for gas guzzling pickups and SUVs doesn't mean that there isn't a market for more efficient pickups and SUVs.

As I see it, the problem is that they're deeply invested in the status quo and they don't seem to be interested in investing more money to make better vehicles. GM isn't the only company that is guilty of this.

Totally agree. But the market is a funny thing. People do not always make the best choices. And with fuel being so cheap right now, not sure much is going to change.

Of course, as I have stated before, the technology simply does not yet exist for EVs to be all things to all people, and even many of those that could use them, won't.

It would be a neat social experiment to have a hidden camera in every salesperson's office and have a policy of each and every one trying to sell someone on an EV, regardless of what they walked in the door to see and potentially buy.

To be fair, even with cheap fuel and a huge SUV boom, Tesla's somehow managed to make demand for a midsize electric sedan...

bhtooefr said:

To be fair, even with cheap fuel and a huge SUV boom, Tesla's somehow managed to make demand for a midsize electric sedan...

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Define demand in real world numbers. If you are a tiny company, making a tiny niche vehicle, then yes, demand will seem high. But they are a far cry away from selling in any numbers that any of the big manufacturers are [yet] concerned with.

But, the "Big 3" when there actually was such a thing, though the likes of Volkswagen was a joke too. They thought the same about Toyota a few years later. Now look.

If Tesla could produce their Model 3 reservations in a year, they'd likely outsell every actual car in the US market that year, and come quite close to the Ram.

Except that if they did, demand would fall. Because there would be the used market to compete with.

Tesla is on track to sell about 50k units this year I think, yes? Or at least, for 2017 model year (but I admit I may not be reading the info correctly).

Ford sold 58k F-series pickups in January. Toyota sold 37k Camrys in August.

If any new Tesla models (once they are actually in the marketplace, and not ethereal numbers for some aggressive much publicized order taking regime) end up selling well enough as to put a dent in anyone else's sales, I think the other manufacturers will easily come out with similar cars. And I bet they'll be able to do it cheaper, and just as good.

Tesla is the Sony Betamax right now. And now Dyson wants to get it on it too!

bhtooefr said:

To be fair, even with cheap fuel and a huge SUV boom, Tesla's somehow managed to make demand for a midsize electric sedan...

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I give Elon Musk a lot of credit for being able to pull it off as long as he has. He was smart enough to figure out how to create insatiable demand using great technology, very generous federal and state government subsidies, and charging high prices for the cars. All this in light of not having to bow to shareholder's for stock performance and earnings creation. If wall street ever views this using a traditional metric, the bottom will fall out.

I don't know how long his game will last, but I bet he is having a ball.

duteman2 said:

We just returned our e-Golf off the lease. What a great car! It was not worth keeping though, the limited range made it an experimental commuter, frankly. My retired wife was the primary driver, we only put 7500 miles on it in two years. That was a heat-pump model and, with a range of a hundred miles at best with the heat pump, does it really matter that you might only get 85 miles with the regular heat? Neither is enough. VW credit tried to talk us into buying it off the lease but they still,wanted 15k for it, not worth it with 200 mile range cars on the near horizon...

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Did they take anything off the residual? It sounds like you had an SEL, what was your residual before they offered the car at 15K?

I think we have an $11K residual on our SE, but I'm not sure VW is going to be interested in letting it go for what it is probably realistically worth (I'd argue nearly half the residual). We have 13K on ours after 2.5 years of driving and it's value is a 2nd city car only.

We haven't seen any battery degradation, btw, and we live in the hottest part of the US (and I think one of the hottest in the world).

oilhammer said:

Totally agree. But the market is a funny thing. People do not always make the best choices. And with fuel being so cheap right now, not sure much is going to change.
Of course, as I have stated before, the technology simply does not yet exist for EVs to be all things to all people, and even many of those that could use them, won't.
It would be a neat social experiment to have a hidden camera in every salesperson's office and have a policy of each and every one trying to sell someone on an EV, regardless of what they walked in the door to see and potentially buy.

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The problem is that we (EV buyers) tend to know more than the sales people and invariably have to convince the sales people to show us them. It's like pulling teeth or worse. When my wife and I managed to test drive an EV or even a PHEV, the cars weren't even charged up even though we had appointments and specifically told them we wanted to test the e-drivetrain.

Mercedes targets Tesla.
http://fortune.com/2017/09/21/mercedes-electric-suvs-alabama/

oilhammer said:

Tesla is the Sony Betamax right now. And now Dyson wants to get it on it too!

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I don't think that's a very good analogy. After all Tesla open sourced all of their patents years ago. Elon has very different goals for Tesla than those of almost all corporations. He's not primarily motivated by money or dominating the industry- he wants to build great cars that will speed up the transition to renewables. His take on Mercedes entering the EV market here is that they should scale up their efforts by a factor of ten. Obviously he isn't too worried about competition.

Maybe not the best analogy, but it has some similarities. And it isn't like Sony went under.

MB is already using Tesla's stuff in the B-class. So if they succeed, he succeeds. And no, he is not worried about competition or money. He has plenty of money, and he has other projects like his space launch program, which is having some great successes! I just wish the NASA channel showed more about them.

To be fair, Mercedes is moving away from Tesla's technology. That's one thing that Tesla did when they were in more of a pinch - they did custom stuff for other automakers - but now those automakers are doing their own thing. (Or, in Toyota's case, not doing much at all with BEVs.)

AFAIK, the B-Class and RAV4 EV both have what's basically a Model S rear motor in the front, and the B-Class, RAV4, and 451 Smart Electric Drive all have Tesla battery modules.

...actually, wait, if the B and RAV4 have Model S rear motors... how long before someone chiptunes them to silly power?

bhtooefr said:

...actually, wait, if the B and RAV4 have Model S rear motors... how long before someone chiptunes them to silly power?

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Takes more than a tune... needs higher pack voltage. That's the core difference between the 60 and 85, more cells in series. Pack voltage on the 90 runs up to
fully charged 400V, while the 60 peaks around 350V.

CraziFuzzy said:

Takes more than a tune... needs higher pack voltage. That's the core difference between the 60 and 85, more cells in series. Pack voltage on the 90 runs up to
fully charged 400V, while the 60 peaks around 350V.

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Maybe you mean wattage? Existing EVs use 300-400V for their power trains, and feed them with the greater, and greater, amperage that larger batteries can deliver. Watts = Volts * Amps, if you're going to get down to what the limiter is.

Because people want range, most don't realize they are also getting extra power. By definition, more amps to get say 200 miles, means these cars have batteries that can push 300-400HP. All that's needed is a proper electric motor, and the suspension bits that can handle it all.

Manufacturers are playing with this, but the watts are pretty much on-tap. Where the lines are being pushed are with Porsche's Mission E, with 800v and a slightly different chemistry (Li-Po). The material factor for ordinary EV's (not Tesla, because they have no other car that would lose sales) is how much power they want to allow. Do they use weak-sauce 100KW motors, or do they let the dogs out and approach Tesla's 500+KW (~670HP)?

MrSprdSheet said:

Maybe you mean wattage? Existing EVs use 300-400V for their power trains, and feed them with the greater, and greater, amperage that larger batteries can deliver. Watts = Volts * Amps, if you're going to get down to what the limiter is.
Because people want range, most don't realize they are also getting extra power. By definition, more amps to get say 200 miles, means these cars have batteries that can push 300-400HP. All that's needed is a proper electric motor, and the suspension bits that can handle it all.
Manufacturers are playing with this, but the watts are pretty much on-tap. Where the lines are being pushed are with Porsche's Mission E, with 800v and a slightly different chemistry (Li-Po). The material factor for ordinary EV's (not Tesla, because they have no other car that would lose sales) is how much power they want to allow. Do they use weak-sauce 100KW motors, or do they let the dogs out and approach Tesla's 500+KW (~670HP)?

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Which brings up another point, very few people can keep up with 700 HP because they get behind on their steering and decision making if they tap into that much power. Be nice to have a lightweight AWD hatchback with that much power if it had some kind of way to lockout higher power levels when you wanted to. An electric Group B rally car.

aja8888 said:

I give Elon Musk a lot of credit for being able to pull it off as long as he has. He was smart enough to figure out how to create insatiable demand using great technology, very generous federal and state government subsidies, and charging high prices for the cars. All this in light of not having to bow to shareholder's for stock performance and earnings creation. If wall street ever views this using a traditional metric, the bottom will fall out.

I don't know how long his game will last, but I bet he is having a ball.

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I think Elon learned some of his marketing lesson from Harley-Davidson. Under produce each model year by x% of the total demand. That has kept the prices and desires for a hawg high.

And now GM goes all out with electric vehicle planning (20 new vehicles by 2023):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ic-future-with-20-all-electric-models-by-2023

MrSprdSheet said:

Maybe you mean wattage? Existing EVs use 300-400V for their power trains, and feed them with the greater, and greater, amperage that larger batteries can deliver. Watts = Volts * Amps, if you're going to get down to what the limiter is.
Because people want range, most don't realize they are also getting extra power. By definition, more amps to get say 200 miles, means these cars have batteries that can push 300-400HP. All that's needed is a proper electric motor, and the suspension bits that can handle it all.
Manufacturers are playing with this, but the watts are pretty much on-tap. Where the lines are being pushed are with Porsche's Mission E, with 800v and a slightly different chemistry (Li-Po). The material factor for ordinary EV's (not Tesla, because they have no other car that would lose sales) is how much power they want to allow. Do they use weak-sauce 100KW motors, or do they let the dogs out and approach Tesla's 500+KW (~670HP)?

Click to expand...

I actually do mean voltage. Most of the components in the powertrain (that aren't traction limited) are current limited at full throttle (the drive inverter, the motor coils, etc), so the only way to get higher wattage(horsepower) is if it has a higher pack voltage to work with.