Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

GoFaster said:

Wheel bearings, suspension bushings, latches and locks, HVAC parts, windshields, crash repair parts, are all normal "car stuff" that changing the powertrain to EV doesn't change. And there's lots more.

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I never had any issues with those items in my Jetta over ~200k miles. Same has applied to my Tesla so far. My point is that even 'overpaying' for items from Tesla you're more likely to spend more buying affordable items for an ICE just because you're gonna need more of it.

Hopefully Tesla gives up the keys to their supply kingdom... then we can have the best of both worlds.

2015vwgolfdiesel said:

The warranty is not void if the annual inspections are not performed.

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Yep; I hope they change the recommendation. Annually or every 12500 is ridiculously excessive. I've made it in twice over 112k miles... Once after the 1st year just to make sure everything was going well since I had a 1st year car (2012) and once before I crossed 50k miles before by bumper-bumper warranty shifted to the drive-train only.

GoFaster said:

Wheel bearings, suspension bushings, latches and locks, HVAC parts, windshields, crash repair parts, are all normal "car stuff" that changing the powertrain to EV doesn't change. And there's lots more.

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Correct. Tesla's is just like any other car but with a different motor/fuel setup.

These things have fluids and pumps and gears and oil, etc. Not as much, but still there. And that motor that never wears out? Average RPM of 19,000 which is nearly 5x the typical gas motor RPM. Lot of heat and friction to overcome.

Last weekend I was out shopping and it was 103 outside. I noticed a Tesla model s drive through the parking lot and the radiator was going berserk trying to keep the battery cool. That thing was loud.

Those bearings and other mechanical bits aren't the greatest quality either. The guy with the 100K mile model s taxi featured on Jalopnik had gone thru 3 motor units and 3 sets of wheel bearings in 100k. WAT? I'd be pissed if I went thru wheel bearings and engine replacements every 30k...

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Other than wear items (tires, brakes, and suspension), maintenance schedule for my Fiat is to change the coolant every 150,000 miles.

Oh.. and the cabin air filter every 20,000... ;-)

Sure as hell beats the oil changes, filter changes, DSG fluid changes of the Jetta.

The only PM I've done on our 500e is change the brake fluid in the reservoir...

-J

Well the maintenance schedule on my Snap-On cordless impact is nil, but like clockwork I have to replace $300 worth of batteries every couple years and this last time around I had to have the motor refurbished for $160.

I do not think there is ever going to be any argument that an EV will be less PM heavy than even the most forgiving ICE car. The real world longevity, especially if they actually start to price point build them to appeal to us mere mortals, remains to be seen. We are starting to see more and more hybrid car components, some of which are similar to what an EV may use, failing and they are generally not cheap. Fortunately for the Prius crowd, there is an almost endless supply of used parts to due crashes. Most recently a used A/C compressor on a 2009 Prius saved the owner several hundred dollars, as a new one is a whopping $740.

But the trade off is of course if one is throwing the "savings" of fuel and PM costs into some liquid monetary asset collection device (a fancy way of saying "bank" , more specifically, a savings account). Then, any potentially expensive long term costs are a non-issue. BUT, I can tell you on good authority that after working in the field of auto service for so long, the vast majority of the motoring public does not think this way. They live hand-to-mouth. And even though they *should* be several THOUSANDS of dollars ahead long term, they will have nothing at all to show for it, and will not be able to afford to fix some of these potential items that crop up.

So, we'll see more sub-prime lending for new cars, I fear.

Couldn't the same thing be said for newer TDIs with their failure prone turbos and DSG flywheels

The difference between your drill and a (properly designed) ev car is that the car does a *much* better job of protecting the battery. It never full discharges it, never fully charges it, and doesn't let it get too hot or too cold.

-J

It is not a "drill" and yes it has thermal and charging/discharging management. If it gets too hot, it shuts down and the light flashes. Rarely happens, but it has that ability. Normally its internal fan is sufficient for the motor, though. And the charger of course will not charge a battery that is too hot.

EVs (and hybrids, for that matter) employ battery management that allows greater margins when new, and shrinks those margins over time as the battery ages. Toyota actually allows you do look at this data, as I'm sure others do, if you know where to look.

Although most Prius battery stack issues come from corrosion on the sensing terminals that are integral with the bus bar, not the battery cells themselves. Of course you have to remove and disassemble the whole darn thing to figure that out. Toyota did NOT intend for anyone to service the Prius' battery.

But with an EV, it would be of no great consequence to me if after 200k miles and 10 years it needed a $2000 battery rebuilding. Because if you spent $0 on engine/powertrain related PM/repairs over that time, and your fuel costs were a small fraction of what you would have spent on even a fuel efficient ICE car, you'd STILL be ahead of the game. What I am saying is I do not think many people who own or would dare to own one at that time would think the way I do. Most would have their heart stop, or just keep buying/leasing new. The buying slightly used is right now the best way to go about it, by far, as the initial new purchase hit seems pretty substantial.

So best of both worlds: reasonably cheap buy-in cost, cheap PM costs, and you are even further ahead of the game years down the road IF the need arises to spend some money to keep the good times rolling.

But to your point, electric appliances generally will not have a battery cooling system, because they do not really need it. If the battery gets too hot, the motor simply turns off. You cannot really have that in an EV, because you could be stranded in the middle of the street. Hybrids have the advantage of even if the battery cooling system is compromised, they can still move (albeit slowly) with the ICE alone. This happened a lot with the first gen Civic hybrids when the cooling fan motor assembly for the battery dies, and the owner's butthole puckers up too much to pay the ridiculous amount of money Honda gets for what is essentially a fancy HVAC blower. So they get a hybrid to drive for about 20 minutes, tops, before the battery overheats. Some clown here actually tried to take his car on a trip like that...he realized that the 3 cyl chainsaw engine gets sent into a limp mode when the hybrid system shuts down, and it won't go over about 45 MPH.

I just hope that the future of EVs finds some sort of balance to be appealing to more people while being as good as they can possibly be.

Because right now we only have three choices:

1: The Tesla that costs as much as my house, and is over the top needlessly gizmo packed beyond what is necessary. I rich person's playtoy to me. Neat car, though. So is the Audi R8.

2: Existing ICE cars modified to be EVs. I like all these (500e, eSpark, eGolf, etc.) but I still feel that even though none of those platforms are "old", none were really designed from the onset to be an EV like the Tesla, and thus cave to various compromises in design bestowed upon them from the blueprint stage.

3: Hideously ugly purpose-built EVs like the Bolt and Leaf, that like the Prius assume maybe only slightly eccentric people would want them so they feel the need to make them purposely revolting to most of the populace to insure that at least some of the populace that actually likes them gets that exclusivity without the mortgage level cost of the Tesla. And I fear there are more of these type coming. VAG's concepts, while I know they are just rough drafts visually at this point, do not look very appealing to me.

You guys do realize the EV buyer views their car as purely disposable.

I am on a couple EV forums since my dad has a leaf. People tend to dump them when the warranty runs out. How can you change that mentality? That's why you can get an e500 for $7k with 18,000 miles.

And since they are most ideal for one with a short commute, they will probably never see 200k miles as the owner only travels 8-10k miles a year.

My dad works for the power compny though and can recharge at each plant. Since he commutes between plants every day he has racked up 10k miles in 6 months. He uses the high voltage quick charge almost daily and drives to at least two plants per day. And power plants aren't close.

But when work pays for the electric and reimburses you for mileage...why not own en EV.

You see the 500e for $7k because of insanely generous lease terms, because the goal of the 500e is to allow FCA to continue to sell Ram's in CA and OR. All they need to do is get the 500e's off the lot, they are not making a dime on them. I think my "$30,000" 500e will have a residual of like $19,000 on it at end of the three year lease. There is no way I'd ever buy it for that, and fiat knows it - and doesn't really care.

Of course, based on some discussions I've seen, I do think the off-lease price of the 500e's will start rising in the next couple years. I have seen an increasing number of them being bought up and shipped not just across the states, but to europe and the middle east. If that trend continues, it will drive up the demand on them, which will drive up the market price a bit.

The 500e is cheap in the used market not because people view it as disposable, but because Fiat offered very cheap leases ($99/month or less) in California in order to get more ZEV credits for FCA. As those leases end, the cars end up going back to FCA to be sold at auction. FCA doesn't want leasees to buy the cars out at the end of the lease, as they get no ZEV credits for used sales. Instead, their goal is to lease you another one and claim a second batch of ZEV credits.

Part of the mentality behind flipping these cars is that the technology is evolving so quickly that many people want to get into the latest and greatest thing. Drive a LEAF around for 5 years, sell it used, and buy a Bolt EV with 3x the range of the LEAF. This, of course, costs those sellers a lot of money in depreciation, but many of them are okay with that to be early adopters. Many people lease EVs so that they won't lose as much money in depreciation and they can still upgrade to the latest technology every few years. In either scenario, used EV buyers win because they get a great car for a cheap price (like we did with our 500e).

Eventually the rapid technology advancements will stabilize and people will hold onto their cars for longer.

Yep, a profit black hole in itself in order to earn a giant profit elsewhere. It's that whole "you can destroy 20 acres of rain forest at Site A, so long as you plant 10 trees at Site B" chicanery, and of course you never need water or care for those 10 trees you planted. You need not ever see them again.

Europe has some pretty strict cradle to grave laws regarding manufactured goods, including and especially cars. I wonder if they'll start to implement something like that here.

Anyone ever see the Modern Marvels episode on the salvage operations in the UK? Pretty neat stuff, nothing like we have here.

Cars are not quite to the cell phone level of disposable use item yet, but they may get there some day. And I am not really sure that is necessarily an environmental boon that some would think it to be. But this is where the EVs may have an edge up, as they may be more easily upgraded if the artificial drive to keep making 100% new cars is lessened or taken away altogether.

oilhammer said:

Yep, a profit black hole in itself in order to earn a giant profit elsewhere. It's that whole "you can destroy 20 acres of rain forest at Site A, so long as you plant 10 trees at Site B" chicanery, and of course you never need water or care for those 10 trees you planted. You need not ever see them again.
Europe has some pretty strict cradle to grave laws regarding manufactured goods, including and especially cars. I wonder if they'll start to implement something like that here.
Anyone ever see the Modern Marvels episode on the salvage operations in the UK? Pretty neat stuff, nothing like we have here.

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Of course, the cars aren't just disappearing or getting recycled at the end of the lease. They're getting bought up by people who aren't interested in or can't afford to buy new.

oilhammer said:

Yep, a profit black hole in itself in order to earn a giant profit elsewhere. It's that whole "you can destroy 20 acres of rain forest at Site A, so long as you plant 10 trees at Site B" chicanery, and of course you never need water or care for those 10 trees you planted. You need not ever see them again.
Europe has some pretty strict cradle to grave laws regarding manufactured goods, including and especially cars. I wonder if they'll start to implement something like that here.
Anyone ever see the Modern Marvels episode on the salvage operations in the UK? Pretty neat stuff, nothing like we have here.

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None of these lease giveaway EV's are leaving the road at lease end, so they are still providing the environmental benefits. A majority of the truck they are enabling are going to commercial fleets, which - in general - buy trucks because it's required by the job, and they'd be buying them with or without the ZEV credit system in place.

I am talking long term here, which I realize the perception of time is relative, but the actuality of time is not. Unless you are traveling faster than light...

And when I speak of recycling cars, I am talking about ALL cars, regardless of petroleum or excited electrons or pigeon fart powered.

Call it generous lease terms, government incentives, great financing, whatever...the fact is, when the value is as low as it is there is very little demand.

The percentage of the population interested in buying a used EV is very small. It isn't that they are bad cars, people just don't want them. Lawson is a rare breed of car enthusiast so that's probably why a used EV is in his stable. The low price indicates low demand as does the fact that they are being shipped elsewhere.

That has to change if they are to be the environmental solution they are sold to be.

I would snatch one up if I lived in the city. But I don't, and never will.

So for me it becomes a question of when will the technology get both good enough, affordable enough, and packaged in something that is not revolting to look at, and have good longevity.

I may not live long enough to see that happen, but I can imagine it would get closer and closer as time goes on.

Fortunately, for me, having an extra car (or five) is fine. I have plenty of place to park, insurance is cheap, and I have no issue with the idea that not every vehicle works best for every situation. But as it stands now, with the exception of the stores in town, or even the next town, I could not actually drive anywhere in an EV that I could afford and stand to be seen in.

It would be great for my wife, as she often just does around town stuff. But the car she primarily drives is paid for, in perfect working order, costs very little to maintain, and simply does not use enough fuel to be of any concern. And I KNOW it will still work the same as it does now 10 years from now, just like it has for the 13 years we've owned it, barring any parts availability nonsense.

They had some really good incentives on eGolf models, too (even though they are not officially sold here). But the range is really awful, especially on extremes of temp days, which we have both of here in Missouri.

The issues of EV's are still psychological, not technical. No, the current crop do not fir for oilhammer's use case in the country, but MOST cars are not used in his use case. The daily miles driven of the vast majority of vehicles in the US is < 50 miles. The issue is that if you ask people how many miles they THINK they drive in a day, it is often much higher than that. As the visibility of 'real people' driving EVs increases (which it is doing at a rapid pace), the subconscious blocks will also wane. It will eventually result in an exponential growth of EV's (which is actually already happening in the more visible areas, like CA). 3 years ago, there were 4 doctors who drove EV's at my work. We just finished installing 25 fast chargers, because there are now over 40+ EV's in the employee parking lot, as well as a large number patients driving them in as well. This is out at the edges of the suburbs. More into the metro area they are much more pervasive.

2170s will increase energy density by 25% or so, 400 mile 2hr charging is coming. Eric Lundgren did 748 miles the other day on 165kwhr in an E39 528 using recycled cells and an AC-51. Avg speed of 51mph from bakersfield to sacramento and back with some detours.

oilhammer said:

...Because right now we only have three choices:

1: The Tesla that costs as much as my house, and is over the top needlessly gizmo packed beyond what is necessary. I rich person's playtoy to me. Neat car, though. So is the Audi R8.

2: Existing ICE cars modified to be EVs. I like all these (500e, eSpark, eGolf, etc.) but I still feel that even though none of those platforms are "old", none were really designed from the onset to be an EV like the Tesla, and thus cave to various compromises in design bestowed upon them from the blueprint stage.

3: Hideously ugly purpose-built EVs like the Bolt and Leaf, that like the Prius assume maybe only slightly eccentric people would want them so they feel the need to make them purposely revolting to most of the populace to insure that at least some of the populace that actually likes them gets that exclusivity without the mortgage level cost of the Tesla. And I fear there are more of these type coming. VAG's concepts, while I know they are just rough drafts visually at this point, do not look very appealing to me.

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Where does the Volt fit into your categories?

We just took ours on a 1,000 road trip and got an honest 42 mpg @ 70 mph with AC on the ICE.

All the rest of the time it gets me to and from work for about $1 a day.

Chris said:

Where does the Volt fit into your categories?
We just took ours on a 1,000 road trip and got an honest 42 mpg @ 70 mph with AC on the ICE.
All the rest of the time it gets me to and from work for about $1 a day.

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hybrids, at least I feel, are acceptable if you absolutely need them. But they are the most complicated solution to a problem. You do gain some of the efficiency advantages of an EV, without the range limitations. But you also pick up not only the routine maintenance load of an ICE vehicle, but ALSO the battery life issue of an EV. They also have the most components of any type of vehicle, increasing risk of failure. Two negatives to gain one positive.

I would actually LOVE to have a couple EV's hit the market with a standardized connector for charging during running, to enable the part time use (rental, perhaps) of a range extending trailer - something that's been a common idea in DIY EV's for decades. This would gain the range needed for infrequent use, without the true full maintenance and component loads of the plugin hybrids.

Chris said:

Where does the Volt fit into your categories?
We just took ours on a 1,000 road trip and got an honest 42 mpg @ 70 mph with AC on the ICE.
All the rest of the time it gets me to and from work for about $1 a day.

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Volt is a GM product, so it fits in my dumpster. I won't own one based on principle.

But besides that, it is not a car that has any redeeming qualities to me. They don't drive particularly nice. They look awful. A mediocre plug-in hybrid, if I were going to stomach something like that, I'd get a Prius. But that would mean I'd have given up on life, and I'm not ready for that yet.

I look at plug-in hybrids as sort of like an El Camino or those miserable Subaru Bajas: something that is a little of both, but not especially good at either. I suppose if I were limited to one car, my thoughts on that would change. But I've never had less than two cars since I was 15, most of the time I have had several but that is always changing to some degree. I buy and sell a lot of cars.

I could never afford [a new] one, but I do like the eGolf. However, its range is nowhere near enough for me. But I am not in need of anything different than what I already have, so no worries here. I have a pair of ALH cars now, with a third on the way, a couple Passats, one diesel, one soon to be converted to diesel, a CR TDI Jetta stashed away in a barn (no buyback for me, thanks), and I may be buying a PD J-wagen soon if the owner decides he does not want to fix a few things it needs after its nearly 400k mile life.

Plus my old diesel Jetta still in the garage. And my Sprinter. I hope the eGolf sells well, and any upcoming Volkswagen EVs are successful AND are not hideous to look at. Then maybe if I get to retire I'll have a few other spark-plug-free options to tinker with in the future.

Interesting (and encouraging) that EVs are becoming more popular elsewhere. They are very rare here. And people I have mentioned them to when they ask about what car to buy (since I get that question a LOT) seem to dismiss them out of hand without even giving them 10 seconds of consideration. And I know a LOT of people who COULD make use of one. My boss is one such individual. He is on his fifth or sixth Prius, I can't remember. He never keeps anything very long. He would be the perfect candidate for an EV. Does not drive much, has other cars for longer trips or just rents something or uses one of the shop vehicles, lives close enough he could probably drive to and from work a couple days and not cover 20 miles. And he seems OK driving a Prius. He is 3/4 scale human, too, so something small is fine. But he won't hear of it. And he always buys "slightly used" Priuses, too, so someone else takes the initial hit, but on the Prius that usually is not that much. Not like you see on slightly used EVs, so I would think he'd LOVE that value. But nope, nothing to do with them. Now his uncle, a big techno nerd if there ever was one, and a life long GM flag waver, is on his second Volt, and has had a Bolt on order for a couple months now. That may convince my boss of the worth of an EV (but my boss won't have any more GM products, so it would not be a Bolt, LOL).

CraziFuzzy said:

hybrids, at least I feel, are acceptable if you absolutely need them. But they are the most complicated solution to a problem. You do gain some of the efficiency advantages of an EV, without the range limitations. But you also pick up not only the routine maintenance load of an ICE vehicle, but ALSO the battery life issue of an EV. They also have the most components of any type of vehicle, increasing risk of failure. Two negatives to gain one positive.

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I admittedly have a life situation that's ideal for the Volt.
My daily commute is 38 miles round trip and I can do that without gasoline 9 months of the year.

Thanks to a couple of road trips, my engine has about 4,000 miles on it (out of 48,000 miles total over four years).
I have had to change the oil and filter on the engine twice (every two years regardless of miles).
Not a serious routine maintenance load.
I'll change the air cleaner element at 15 years as a matter of principle

So far the battery life issue hasn't been an issue on the six year old Volts but time will tell.

The driving experience is extremely nice, by my reckoning.
This car was a replacement for an E36 BMW and while not equivalent, not a big step down.

I'm not typically an early adopter but this time it's worked out well for me.

oilhammer said:

Volt is a GM product, so it fits in my dumpster. I won't own one based on principle.

But besides that, it is not a car that has any redeeming qualities to me. They don't drive particularly nice. They look awful. A mediocre plug-in hybrid, if I were going to stomach something like that, I'd get a Prius. But that would mean I'd have given up on life, and I'm not ready for that yet.

I look at plug-in hybrids as sort of like an El Camino or those miserable Subaru Bajas: something that is a little of both, but not especially good at either. I suppose if I were limited to one car, my thoughts on that would change. But I've never had less than two cars since I was 15, most of the time I have had several but that is always changing to some degree. I buy and sell a lot of cars.

I could never afford [a new] one, but I do like the eGolf. However, its range is nowhere near enough for me. But I am not in need of anything different than what I already have, so no worries here. I have a pair of ALH cars now, with a third on the way, a couple Passats, one diesel, one soon to be converted to diesel, a CR TDI Jetta stashed away in a barn (no buyback for me, thanks), and I may be buying a PD J-wagen soon if the owner decides he does not want to fix a few things it needs after its nearly 400k mile life.

Plus my old diesel Jetta still in the garage. And my Sprinter. I hope the eGolf sells well, and any upcoming Volkswagen EVs are successful AND are not hideous to look at. Then maybe if I get to retire I'll have a few other spark-plug-free options to tinker with in the future.

Interesting (and encouraging) that EVs are becoming more popular elsewhere. They are very rare here. And people I have mentioned them to when they ask about what car to buy (since I get that question a LOT) seem to dismiss them out of hand without even giving them 10 seconds of consideration. And I know a LOT of people who COULD make use of one. My boss is one such individual. He is on his fifth or sixth Prius, I can't remember. He never keeps anything very long. He would be the perfect candidate for an EV. Does not drive much, has other cars for longer trips or just rents something or uses one of the shop vehicles, lives close enough he could probably drive to and from work a couple days and not cover 20 miles. And he seems OK driving a Prius. He is 3/4 scale human, too, so something small is fine. But he won't hear of it. And he always buys "slightly used" Priuses, too, so someone else takes the initial hit, but on the Prius that usually is not that much. Not like you see on slightly used EVs, so I would think he'd LOVE that value. But nope, nothing to do with them. Now his uncle, a big techno nerd if there ever was one, and a life long GM flag waver, is on his second Volt, and has had a Bolt on order for a couple months now. That may convince my boss of the worth of an EV (but my boss won't have any more GM products, so it would not be a Bolt, LOL).

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Your 3/4 sized boss needs to accidentally find himself behind the wheel of a 500e. Seriously fun little car to drive. Hell, I love driving mine, and I'm human sized. I think a lot of people who haven't driven a modern EV think they will drive like golf carts... the 500e is tuned in such a way that it feels almost exactly the same as the Turbo Abarth 500, just quieter...

FCA's president doesn't want to build the 500e, but thankfully, he never told his engineers that, because it really is a well designed and programmed car.

I've really only got two problems with the 500e driving experience, having driven Lawson's.

They need to add a lot more caster (or SOMETHING to make it wander less at high speed), and the Italian driving position isn't ideal for me. Then again, where I'd use a short range EV, the fastest I'd go is 60, and the fastest I'd usually go is 40, and then the wandering wouldn't be an issue.

And, otherwise, it's quite fun to drive.

Yeah, I think the high speed wander is a result of the high efficiency tires. I know quite a few owners have put on more 'normal' wheels and tiers and have noticed a great deal better handling (of course with a minor drop in efficiency, but if you're driving it aggressively, you're not going to get 100 miles/charge anyway).

The 500e is a fun car to drive around town, for sure. But NONE of the 500s, no matter what motivates them, are well suited for high speed driving. But, that is to be expected. They are a small car, with a high profile. No different than a Versa, Prius, Yaris, Spark, etc.

But EVs are not best at that type of driving anyway. I had done a lot of reading on the eGolf, and that is where they suffer the most as far as range goes. Great city car, not so great of a highway car. Although the Golf itself is perfectly stable at high speeds, so I assume the eGolf would be too, even though its powertrain isn't ideal for it [yet].

I like the eSpark much less than the 500e, but it cost less too. Not sure how they are in the used market though, but the Fiat feels a little more upscale.

Came out today, that the UK is banning gas/diesel cars by 2040 and they have to be EV. Green gone mad. Paris, Germany also in the mix to do it.

turbovan+tdi said:

Came out today, that the UK is banning gas/diesel cars by 2040 and they have to be EV. Green gone mad. Paris, Germany also in the mix to do it.

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I would guess those governments have a plan to build out the infrastructure and power plants to fuel millions of batteries? Or are they just going to ban home power use to shift supply?

They will also lose big bucks in fuel tax revenues? What are they thinking?

aja8888 said:

I would guess those governments have a plan to build out the infrastructure and power plants to fuel millions of batteries? Or are they just going to ban home power use to shift supply?
They will also lose big bucks in fuel tax revenues? What are they thinking?

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Yep, guess they didn't realize that plus all those EV's won't be that good for the enviroment,

aja8888 said:

I would guess those governments have a plan to build out the infrastructure and power plants to fuel millions of batteries? Or are they just going to ban home power use to shift supply?
They will also lose big bucks in fuel tax revenues? What are they thinking?

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With a smart grid and reasonable infrastructure, there is plenty of power available.

As for taxes, legislatures will put their thinking caps on and come up with a different way to levy road taxes. They aren't going to miss out on tax revenue just because they're phasing out internal combustion.

2040 is a long way away and the energy and transportation industries are advancing rapidly.