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Old December 18th, 2018, 01:12   #31
eddie_1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nwdiver View Post
There's >40GWh of capacity available off-peak everyday. The average daily round-trip commute is ~34km which would require ~7kWh of energy. So the German grid without any upgrades can easily support >5M EVs. Vastly more with smart charging.
You have to remember most of the population don't live in Single Family Homes with a nice driveway to park and charge. The population density is in the big cities and like the Ruhr region which is one of the most densely populated in the world. Most people live in multiple family buildings (Mehrfamilienhäuser) or Apartment Bldgs. Cars are parked in communal lots or scattered all over the streets. Right now my colleague would like to buy some VW electro-UP but he wouldn't be able to get a cable to it from where he lives in the Bldg. Charging locations are few and far between.

Nice data plots, thanks, but it would need more specific load flow analysis to the specific population density areas (hot spots) to see if power can be delivered.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 02:58   #32
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Charging locations are few and far between.
I doesn't take much. Especially in Europe where standard voltage is 230v. To get the average required energy of 7kWh over an 8 hour window is 875w or <4A. Some areas have been retrofitting street lamps as charging points since they were designed for ~200w sodium lamps but have been converted to 15w LEDs. Every 4 converted lamps now leaves enough spare ampacity to charge an EV.

The grid will be fine; And charging points are super easy to install.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 05:24   #33
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I doesn't take much. Especially in Europe where standard voltage is 230v. To get the average required energy of 7kWh over an 8 hour window is 875w or <4A. Some areas have been retrofitting street lamps as charging points since they were designed for ~200w sodium lamps but have been converted to 15w LEDs. Every 4 converted lamps now leaves enough spare ampacity to charge an EV.
The grid will be fine; And charging points are super easy to install.
An actual case is someone I know who has a Smart EV. It takes about 5 hours to charge to about 12kWh. In fact homes get 3 phase but the Smart can only take single phase. Then they got a special wall unit installed from Mercedes to optimize the single phase. It improved the time maybe an hour. It has a range on paper of about 150Kms but with cold weather and heating maybe 80Kms. Already got stuck a couple of times. It's ok for shopping and going to work. This is Autobahn country. It's a hard sell. Have you seen the density of charging places in Holland vs Germany?

https://www.plugsurfing.com/de/priva...ons-karte.html
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Old December 18th, 2018, 05:30   #34
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The temp extremes are why a local company ditched their EV Focus fleet. If it was above 75, or below 35, their range was effectively cut in half. So they had to have a regular car on stand-by for every EV they had, since the down time to charge them was greater than the time they were actually able to be used. They can "hot seat" the ones with engines, too. That is how they can pile 100k miles on a car in a year. It was a noble idea, but doomed to fail, because it makes no financial sense to have three electric Focuses licensed and insured to do the job that one gasoline fueled version can do.

I was actually shocked just how bad the range tanked at the temp extremes. Curious to see how the new electric Sprinter does (we won't get them here).
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Old December 18th, 2018, 05:34   #35
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A whole lot of American iron in the form of Model 3's is about to hit European shores. Those will give Europeans a pretty good idea of what a quality EV can do. They certainly won't take 5 hours to charge 12 kWh.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 05:49   #36
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I don't think there is a whole lot of "American iron" in those things. Never been under a 3, but the S underpinnings are all from somewhere else.... and none of it looked to be iron. I saw Canada, Germany, France, Spain, China, Italy, Mexico, and others.

Of course, this isn't really any different than any other "American" brand of car. Or any other brand for that matter.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 06:19   #37
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Just a colorful turn of phrase. Unlike the model S, the Model 3 is iron/steel rich. The last time this much American iron was headed for European shores they caught Rommel snoozing.

https://electrek.co/2017/12/05/tesla...ject-michigan/

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Old December 18th, 2018, 07:02   #38
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Originally Posted by turbobrick240 View Post
Just a colorful turn of phrase. Unlike the model S, the Model 3 is iron/steel rich. The last time this much American iron was headed for European shores they caught Rommel snoozing.
https://electrek.co/2017/12/05/tesla...ject-michigan/
Not sure how much German you can follow, but the national TV did a fairly negative piece on Tesla a few days ago. Maybe they were preparing people for the model 3. It was done by Southwest National TV, so probably pro Mercedes and a bit worried, but implied the big 3 in Germany will hit Tesla hard.

Essentially said the Tesla S was a German car.

Highlighted:
- Work practices. A guy who worked until he dropped in the production line and generally working on steroids.
- Californian style innovation. Paradox of brutal business environment and selling ideals of saving the planet.
- Tech, Engineers and Automation is from Germany.
- Low Transparency.
- Micro-management by Musk limiting growth.

Tesla unter Strom. 'Unter Strom' means Under Pressure but Strom is the word for current.
https://www.daserste.de/information/...strom-100.html
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Old December 18th, 2018, 08:27   #39
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Originally Posted by eddie_1 View Post
An actual case is someone I know who has a Smart EV. It takes about 5 hours to charge to about 12kWh. In fact homes get 3 phase but the Smart can only take single phase. Then they got a special wall unit installed from Mercedes to optimize the single phase. It improved the time maybe an hour. It has a range on paper of about 150Kms but with cold weather and heating maybe 80Kms. Already got stuck a couple of times. It's ok for shopping and going to work. This is Autobahn country. It's a hard sell. Have you seen the density of charging places in Holland vs Germany?
https://www.plugsurfing.com/de/priva...ons-karte.html
Pretty.... pretty big viability difference between an EV with <100km range and >400km range. 12kWh in 5 hours is more than sufficient for daily charging you don't need 3 phase charging 230v is fine. For long distance driving there are more than enough fast chargers in Europe.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 08:39   #40
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Last summer one of our sales reps from a German supplier was in and we were talking about Tesla. He was totally negative. In his personal case (which is probably unusual) he lives in Belgium and has to travel to his employer in Germany periodically. The trip is well beyond the range of the best Tesla, even in temperate weather. Second, he said that many people are (perhaps justifiably) skeptical of both range and Tesla's ability to sustain high speeds on the autobahn, range notwithstanding. He joked about running at 200 kph for 3 hours. Probably isn't going to happen.

Admittedly this is a guy who sells parts for gasoline and diesel powered cars, so there's got to be some bias there. But he's also a reasonable person and I think may have reflected a lot of European's thinking about Tesla as a performance car. And keep in mind that cars manufactured in the US have never gotten very positive reviews in Europe. Tesla would have to overcome that bias, too.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 09:15   #41
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If that salesman is driving at a sustained 125 mph for 3 hours straight, he must be a millionaire (fuel is not cheap in europe) with no concern for the environment. Honestly though, he has every right to feel threatened by the EV invasion.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 10:44   #42
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>400km range.
Then all your previous arguments about trickle charging don't hold.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 11:07   #43
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Then all your previous arguments about trickle charging don't hold.
???? How so? The AVERAGE daily use is ~7kWh. If you're traveling and need the extra range you're gonna be using a fast charger.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 18:46   #44
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No disagreements. There are probably more than one factor in North America leading to making the transition to EVs very slooooooooooooow!

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I agree, but for slight different reasons. In North America, especially the western half, travel distances can often exceed the abilities of virtually all currently available EVs. Seattle to the nearest major metropolitan area (Portland) is reachable, but that's about it. Vancouver BC would be questionable, because of potentially long delays at the border. Spokane to the east is close to 300 miles. Nothing but a Tesla currently has that range.
And I can't even reach the California border, let alone actually make it to a major city, with any current EV. All of these can be reached with a gas powered car with no more than a 5 minute stop for fuel. And my former Passat TDI would have made it to San Francisco without stopping.
Of course, the argument can be made (and accurately) that the majority of people don't drive those kind of distances with regularity. For me, the longest distance that I might travel in a day is to go to my parents home. It's about 140 miles round trip, so there are EVs that can satisfy that distance. Can't charge at their place, so would need enough range for the round trip.
Yesterday I drove about 130 miles, all just on errands. A bit higher than my typical weekend day, but still common enough. So for me, I need (want) an EV with at least 200 real world mile range, meaning the heat or AC is running at maximum and typical traffic levels. VW might have one coming in the next year or so, so we'll just wait and see. I don't care for the Bolt, the Niro EV might not be large enough, and Tesla is more than I want to pay.
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Old December 18th, 2018, 20:40   #45
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???? How so? The AVERAGE daily use is ~7kWh. If you're traveling and need the extra range you're gonna be using a fast charger.
Fortunately, no one reading (or writing) here will have the slightest impact on the
present or future adoption of the next new normal in transportation. The better and
ultimately cheaper technology will take over in its own time; resistance will be futile.
None of us need to worry any more about mending traces and forking hay.
If you think about it, generating and distributing incrementally more electricity over
time is a lot less complex than the infrastructure we have established to support our
internal combustion dream machines.
The fact that electric vehicles can already dominate certain short races is the icing.
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