Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability
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2015vwgolfdiesel
Top Post Dawg
.... hmmmmmmm
..... after they can "short" em?
i. e.
.... sell "em" on an exchange...
.... are bitcoins being *traded* currently?
Oilerlord
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Considering TSLA was a $20 stock not long ago, you could say it already has gone full bitcoin. I think the fast money has already been made.
As much as Elon Musk would have you believe that Tesla is revolutionary (like Bitcoin actually is) - in the end, Tesla is in the business of building electric cars and lithium ion batteries. Big deal. If (or when) GM, Toyota, Kia, etc, decide to take this sliver of a market seriously - they will. You don't think Paccar or Volvo could build an electric semi if they really wanted to, and more cost effectively than Tesla can? Guess again.
The day that Kia announces they decided to build an EV with twice the quality at half the cost of Tesla's offering is the day TSLA stock gets pummelled.
turbobrick240
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You may be waiting a long time for that day to come.
Oilerlord
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Yup. Ticker: XBT
https://www.thestreet.com/story/144...or-bitcoin-as-cboe-contracts-open-sunday.html
Happy gambling!
turbobrick240
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I also don't think TSLA is anywhere near done growing- just getting started really. Bitcoin stock value has grown 2000% in the last year. TSLA has not yet seen that kind of growth. It may never, but it wouldn't hurt my feelings if it did.
Oilerlord
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You've got some sound investment analytics there. Thanks, but I'll pass on TSLA.I also don't think TSLA is anywhere near done growing- just getting started really. Bitcoin stock value has grown 2000% in the last year. TSLA has not yet seen that kind of growth. It may never, but it wouldn't hurt my feelings if it did.
aja8888
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Everybody is a prophet when the market is going up.
turbobrick240
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Fair enough. Your analysis that the TSLA bubble is about to burst sounds like it's coming straight from chicken littles beak to me. We can confer in a year or two to see who had better insight.
2015vwgolfdiesel
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compu_85
Gadget Guy
Kia already sells an EV that's half the cost of a Tesla (and also less than half of the range).
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oilhammer
Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Yes, but only in certain areas, and in VERY small numbers. Not sure if it is because they are selling so well and simply cannot build them fast enough OR if they just are not big sellers.
The Electric Soul starts at $35k. The nearest one to me is nearly 500 miles away. I can have my pick of the gasoline fueled ones from right down the street, starting at around $17k. And those sell like crazy. There are 159 to choose from within 15 miles, according to their inventory locator. There are 3 electric ones in 500 miles. 3.
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VeeDubTDI
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Tesla is in the business of designing, building, selling and installing alternative energy infrastructure, including transportation infrastructure (vehicles). It is way more than just cars and batteries.
Fossil fuels are declining and renewables are growing. Tesla is positioned very well in a growing market.
Oilerlord
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That's the perception. We can choose to debate that perception, or just refer to Tesla's latest 10Q income statement that lists where their revenue comes from:
So:
- Does Tesla actually sell infrastructure?
- Does Tesla sell infrastructure designs and/or professional design services?
- A small part of Tesla's business is selling solar panels, through their Solar City subsidiary along with home battery systems (i.e Line Item:
"Energy generation & storage"). Does that qualify as infrastructure, or simply product offerings that a myriad of other companies already sell?
http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-17-21343&CIK=1318605
After reading Tesla's income statement, do you still think Tesla is "way more" than just cars & batteries, or is it merely something you want to believe?
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oilhammer
Certified Volkswagen Nut & Vendor
Toyota makes fork lifts, sewing machines, and pre-fab housing too. But I think they are still best known as a car company.
VeeDubTDI
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Tesla is currently best known for their cars and batteries. Tesla's ultimate goal is to create and proliferate renewable energy products, and so far, they've been doing just that despite a lot of market inertia. Accomplishing their numerous long-term goals will take time and I'm not alone in my confidence in their ability to do great things.That's the perception. We can choose to debate that perception, or just refer to Tesla's latest 10Q income statement that lists where their revenue comes from:
So:
- Does Tesla actually sell infrastructure?
- Does Tesla sell infrastructure designs and/or professional design services?
- A small part of Tesla's business is selling solar panels, through their Solar City subsidiary along with home battery systems (i.e Line Item:
"Energy generation & storage"). Does that qualify as infrastructure, or simply product offerings that a myriad of other companies already sell?
http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-17-21343&CIK=1318605
After reading Tesla's income statement, do you still think Tesla is "way more" than just cars & batteries, or is it merely something you want to believe?
As for their non-transportation business, their utility-scale energy arm is just getting going. Let's look at some year-over-year increases related to that...
Energy generation and storage: up 1300%
Services and other: up 240%
Of course you can't establish a reliable trend with a couple of data points. We'll see what happens in the coming years. To me, things look very positive for Tesla.
GoFaster
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... IF they can get through the Model 3 launch and then the Semi launch, and IF those two products (which appear under-priced) end up being cash flow positive!
If they can get through that, THEN I'd agree that things look positive.
I don't own TSLA nor am I short TSLA and I never have been.
If they can get through that, THEN I'd agree that things look positive.
I don't own TSLA nor am I short TSLA and I never have been.
VeeDubTDI
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Tesla certainly has a lot of irons in the fire right now and they continue to add more.
john.jackson9213
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Boy, is that TRUE. Let me know how it turns out after a few bear markets.Everybody is a prophet when the market is going up.
Commodity and Stock marketing bobbles are great when you ride them up. But timing them is fatal to most of us. During the dot com bubble, I rode Leap Wireless from below $6.75 to over $100/115. Then tried to ride it on the down side. Took a 300k profit to a total wipe out of my initial investment and some more losses than that.
There is a very good reason why long term investors like Warren Buffet are successful.
My only successful long term investment has been in southern California residential real estate. It has provided family homes and a modest inflation protected retirement income.
aja8888
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If the U.S. were that have a 15 - 20% stock market correction given the Bull has run almost a decade, a lot of momentum stocks would be taken to the well for their last drink. This happened in 2000 when the dot.com's with no earnings were taken out, good ideas or not. Tesla would certainly feel the heat and may be forced to liquidate or sell parts of it's business, or face bankruptcy.
turbobrick240
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Not long ago Amazon was seen as principally being in the book business. Things can change very quickly in this day and age.
turbocharged798
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Things can also go sour quickly, like the Enron scam years ago.
Problem with Tesla is they are going to run out of other people's money to spend, just like Enron.
Problem with Tesla is they are going to run out of other people's money to spend, just like Enron.
aja8888
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Amazon has earnings and pays their bills.
turbobrick240
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Tesla also has earnings(they just aren't positive yet) and pays their bills. When GM got bailed out, it cost us taxpayers $11 billion. When the government loaned Tesla $465 million, it was all paid back early with interest. It seems like some people are fine with massive government subsidies and bailouts, so long as they don't benefit the clean energy sector.
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aja8888
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Negative earnings are not earnings, they are losses.
The GM bailout was very bad politics and was touted as a potential lost jobs issue. It was very sad what they (gov) did to the bondholders. If Tesla goes down there will also be a big loss to taxpayers and shareholders, although we just don't know how much at this time.
I really hope they make it. Some of my mutual funds hold Tesla stock.
If things get bad (worse) financially, they can go BK and screw the creditors. This happens a lot in business as I have worked some of those restructuring deals in a previous life. With brilliant lawyers who understand the process, they could be back making product shortly after that.
turbobrick240
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Amazon has had its share of losses too. In fact, much like Tesla, amazon is notorious for sacrificing profits in the interest of gaining future market share. I think (and hope) Tesla is on a very similar trajectory to that of Amazon in recent years.
nwdiver
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Yep. But losses are not the same as aggressive reinvestment... something AMZN and TSLA both share.
john.jackson9213
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Everybody is a prophet when the market is going up.
I think the auto industry bailouts had to be done simply to stop/slow down the crash. The bond holders we're toast anyway you look at it in the short or intermediate term. Long term, the, bottom feeders and their lawyers would have made some money off the system.
$11 billion is small change compared to massive unemployment.
To me, it was much like a massive, lethal public health epidemic. First thing is to contain it.
Back to Tesla and Musk. I admire the work his Space X team has done. Clearly, they have force cost improvements on what Presdent Eisenhower called the "military industrial complex.
By the same token, solar cells have come a very long way from the only choice for cost is no object, mission critical space projects.
I can say more, but no matter. Tesla has provided a massive push in a new direction. In 20 or 30 years, many good things will have come from this andveture.
Oilerlord
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Amazon revolutionized online shopping.
Priceline revolutionized online hotel bookings.
Apple revolutionized how we buy and listen to music.
Facebook revolutionized social media.
OpenTable revolutionized restaurant reservations.
Uber revolutionized how we order a cab.
VW sells electric cars.
GM sells electric cars.
Ford sells electric cars.
Fiat sells electric cars.
Nissan sells electric cars.
Tesla sells electric cars.
Kia sells electric cars.
Mercedes sells electric cars.
BMW sells electric cars.
turbobrick240
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Stories like this one about a model 3 being delivered early to a man with terminal cancer, and the Puerto Rico children's hospital electrification project donation, illustrate the principles at Tesla.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2017/12/13/tesla-model-3-bucket-list-dying-man/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/electrek.co/2017/12/13/tesla-model-3-bucket-list-dying-man/amp/
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