GoFaster
Moderator at Large
This is a bit distorted.So, where we are now saves 160,000 lives per year compared to unregulated exhaust.
In 2020, the standards would save 230,000 lives per year.
It looks like we are nowhere near the line of diminishing returns, and that several more generations of pollution control regulation would be desirable. How will we know when to stop?
The new regulations save 70,000 lives per year, and raise the cost of a car by $1200, all of which comes back in fuel saving. What if it was only 700 lives per year? Would it still be worth it?
The standards as they are now WITH THE VEHICLE MIX THAT WE HAVE NOW (including older vehicles that meet older standards) might save whatever amount of lives.
Removing a pre-1996 vehicle from the roads removes more pollution than you could ever get by going more stringent than today's (or, perhaps, Euro 4 standards some time ago).
Illustration of the concept. You have 10 old baseline-case cars on the road. Each one emits, say, 100. It doesn't matter what that represents. Total car emissions are 1000. Total other emissions from other sources (regarded as uncontrollable in this mental exercise) are also 1000. Total nasty stuff in the air, 2000.
Replace one of those cars that emits 10. Total emissions are now 1910.
Replace one of those cars with something that emits 0. Total emissions are now 1900. Scarcely any difference.
Now replace ALL of those cars with something that emits 10. Total car emissions are now 100. Big difference. Combine with the uncontrollable other emissions and it's 1100. A little less than half a reduction. Not bad.
But perform the impossible and replace all of those cars with something that emits 0. Still have 1000 units of crap in the air ... not much improvement.
Now for the wrench in the works. Suppose it costs 10 units of crap in order to manufacture that car that emits 0 because you have made the manufacturers bend over backwards and done something that is essentially impractical in today's technology.
Oops. That further reduction to 0 has actually gotten you nowhere (and cost a whole bunch of money in the process).