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Fuels & Lubricants Discussion all about Fuels & Lubricants. synthetic oil, conventional oil, brands, change intervals, diesel grades, gelling and such debated items like that. Non TDI related postings will be moved or removed. This forum is NOT for the discussion of biodiesel and other alternative fuels.

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Old August 19th, 2018, 14:32   #1
vwdsmguy
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Default future price hikes

My newspaper says that because of 2020 lower emissions requirments [less sulfur] that prices will go up 20 to 30% and there maybe a scarcity of diesel fuel. Most affected will be ocean ships which use bunker fuel [one step above crude]. I've heard it said that 50 of these container ships put out more pollution than all the worlds cars combined. Ships could be required to clean up their stack emissions or use a lower sulfur fuel.
Anyway truckers and us will pay much more per gallon.
Anyone else have something else to add to this?
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Old August 19th, 2018, 17:58   #2
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Interesting article addressing cargo ship emissions:

"So yes, the 15 biggest ships produce more sulfur oxide pollutants than all the cars in the world, because they run on completely different fuels. A ship produces more carbon dioxide emission per mile and per gallon of fuel than a car. Ships in general, however, have the lowest emission levels of any other method of cargo transport , producing fewer emissions per ton of freight per mile than barges, trains or trucks."

Complete article: http://sparrowmarine.com/is-it-true-...-all-the-cars/


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Old August 19th, 2018, 19:02   #3
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Quote:
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Interesting article addressing cargo ship emissions:
So yes, the 15 biggest ships produce more sulfur oxide pollutants than all the cars in the world, because they run on completely different fuels. A ship produces more carbon dioxide emission per mile and per gallon of fuel than a car.
.
Anecdotally, the Sevmorput emits practically zero carbon(nuclear). The Russian nuclear ice breakers as well. While bunker fuel has more carbon per gallon than gasoline or diesel, it contains less per ton.
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Old August 19th, 2018, 20:26   #4
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I don't really see how this is connected to our cars that already use low sulphur fuel. Ships have 0 in common with our cars. As long as over the road trucks and other work trucks using diesel fuel are around we should have little to worry about IMO.
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Old August 20th, 2018, 08:06   #5
vwdsmguy
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Default Diesel going up in price

I think the price hike will be due to increased demand for cleaner fuel. This could justify a price increase [supply vs demand] - you know. Will this effect the value or demand for our cars?
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Old August 20th, 2018, 08:38   #6
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Since diesel fuel is already hydrotreated to reduce the sulfur, requiring reduced sulfur gasoline should have no effect on the supply/demand curve of low sulfur diesel fuel. The sulfur reduction step is taken on the refined fuel, not the crude oil itself.
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Old August 20th, 2018, 09:35   #7
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Diesel fuel has already had this "cleanup" done around 2007. Gasoline is next in line with better more costly emissions equipment similar to current diesel technology to some extent. Diesel emissions are already ahead of gasoline in this regard.
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Old August 28th, 2018, 15:57   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightflyer1 View Post
I don't really see how this is connected to our cars that already use low sulphur fuel. Ships have 0 in common with our cars. As long as over the road trucks and other work trucks using diesel fuel are around we should have little to worry about IMO.
The point other articles I've read make is that ships moving away from bunker fuel and into the middle distillates with lower sulfur means these boats will now be competing with over the road vehicles for the same fuel.

There is an aside to this that says ships can still use bunker oil for fuel if they use exhaust scrubbers, but the few companies that have approved scrubbers available for retrofit do not have the capacity to make a huge dent in all the ships that would require such a retrofit to continue using bunker oil by 2020. Ergo, it's a near certainty that many ships will in fact be competing with over the road vehicles for the same diesel fuel and other similar distillates with less sulfur.
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Old August 29th, 2018, 10:30   #9
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Sounds like they can use low sulfur fuels when in the "zone" and the same old bunker fuel everywhere else.
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Old August 29th, 2018, 11:00   #10
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This has been talked about for well over a decade now. I very much doubt anything drastic will happen, and it certainly will not happen overnight. Also, most people's cost for ULSD is going to be spread out with increased shipping costs. It may end up being a good thing, as maybe they'll work to put the MUCH more fuel efficient means of transporting goods about, trains, back into use and get some of these damn trucks off the roads.

When your diesel car gets 50+ MPG, it really isn't a huge concern anyway. At least I am not too worried. My electric rate at my house dropped 6%, that will easily offset any fuel price increases we are likely to see in the next few years.
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Old August 30th, 2018, 09:52   #11
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My company is looking at expanding our use of rail. Not because of fuel prices but because of driver shortages. We can ship by rail and have same day delivery to most of our customers. That seems to be what many of the drivers are requesting. No more coast to coast hauling.
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Old September 4th, 2018, 20:03   #12
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And next gasoline fuel will get sulfur reduction. higher PRICE.

And at 55,000 miles the 2015 TDI will get all new rubber hose. Cost about $400.00

just to keep the DPF working.
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Old September 4th, 2018, 21:19   #13
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What is this $400 rubber hose you speak of?
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Old September 6th, 2018, 00:27   #14
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Originally Posted by kjclow View Post
My company is looking at expanding our use of rail. Not because of fuel prices but because of driver shortages. We can ship by rail and have same day delivery to most of our customers. That seems to be what many of the drivers are requesting. No more coast to coast hauling.

I listen to Road Dog Trucking Channel on Sirius/XM, and one of the recurring themes is the Driver Shortage for Over-the-Road trucking now.



In some places the freight costs are starting to outweigh the cost of the merchandise being shipped, as companies are now having to pay a much higher price to even get their goods on a truck. If you look at the major interstate highways, it seems that there are far more Semi-Trucks on the roads now.

Rail traffic has hit it's limit now, and trucks are being used to handle what used to be shipped by rail.



What does this all mean? An increased demand for Diesel Fuel in the US.



I wonder if the VW Emission scandal might have been politically motivated, at least partially to cut diesel cars out of the "demand" side of Fuel supplies.
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Old September 6th, 2018, 07:17   #15
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Talking to one of my Canadian customers last week. They were told that for every driver today, there are 12 loads available. The more restrictions on the load, the higher the cost of hauling it. One of our trucking firms tried to hit us with a $20,000 surcharge for hauling $40,000 (5000 gallons) worth of liquid material from central PA to Vancouver, BC. I have no idea what we actually paid but do know the customer got his product.
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