Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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redpill

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Buzzzz. WRONG! It is the other taxpayers who then have to subsidize the credit you get. People can (and do) end up getting more money back than they paid in taxes thanks to credits.
This is getting OT but I'm sorry but that's just not correct. The federal EV credit is not a refundable tax credit, it can only reduce your tax liability. No one else pays a dime more just because someone got that tax credit.

If we lived in a world of balanced budgets with tax rates directly linked to federal spending you might have a point. But, we don't.
 

tvmaster

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5,000 posts on this issue and over a half million views in just over a week. :eek:

Elon Musk on Dieselgate: Elon Musk: Dieselgate Proves It's Time to Go Electric
Does anyone know what happens to Tesla batteries when they've expired? Also, we went into a Tesla 'dealership' at the local mall to look at their Electricity Used display. They had conveniently selected .16 cents per kWh as the price when determining costs to run a Tesla.
Bwahahahaha...
The top tier in Southern California (where this dealership is located, which makes it even more ironic), cost wise, is .47 cents per kWh!!!!

How convenient to sell a vehicle when you understate the electricity cost by 2/3's.

If VW gave us $3k for the engine premium, $3k for gas prices over the next ten years, and $3k for lost resale value, that would be just about right.

Or, they can sell me an e-Golf SEL for $12k

that was easy
 

PlaneCrazy

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Only the old Passats regularly get over 700 miles per tank. 95% of folks expect around 350 per tank. The Tesla can do around 300.
My 1.8 TSI Golf can make 400-450 pretty easily in my normal driving mix, and on the highway @ 100 km/h can hit 800. My wife's TDI in similar driving makes 1000 km or 625 miles no sweat. It can break 700 miles on a long road trip at 100 km/h. My previous TDI ('11 Golf) record, in daily commuting, was 1194 km (just shy of 750 miles).

Of course my driving mix is heavily leaning towards rural highways, and autoroutes. City folks will get notably worse.

Still, going down to 300 miles, even from my gas Golf, would be a significant reduction.
 

SageBrush

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Buzzzz. WRONG! It is the other taxpayers who then have to subsidize the credit you get. People can (and do) end up getting more money back than they paid in taxes thanks to credits.
Not from the EV credit. It is of the 'non-refundable' type which means it cannot lower the tax liability below zero.
 

hikertdi

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Numerous well done studies exist about the impacts of EV, how many years before their real benefit might be realized and so on and if you search around, you will find them.

For example... here's a recent article from Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences done by a group at UMinn Engineering School and National Renewable Energy Lab in Colorado:

http://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18490.full.pdf

These figures are particularly telling:

http://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18490.figures-only

The grid average as of 2014 show EV twice as damaging to air quality as gasoline or diesel. The units are given as both "Mortalities per year" and "Externality damages per one gallon gas equivalent." As the grid is now, EV is worse than conventional gasoline. Diesel is slightly better than conventional gasoline.

Yes, the same graph show that EV can be much much better than diesel or gasoline when charged from wind, dynamic water or solar. I would never consider EV where I live (I have solar hot water but buy power from the utility otherwise). If I moved someplace where I could put up my own PV or wind and my driving matched the right profile, lots of <40 miles per day, thought I could get 200k miles per battery, I would consider EV. Otherwise, the grid support for EV still looks 15-20 years out. I live in Berkeley, CA. Most of my around town is by bicycle. When I get in the car, I'm either hauling something heavy or driving 500+ miles that day. Diesel remains my choice for those tasks.
Thanks for posting that. I'm surprised no one else has commented. I must admit I had no idea that EVs would be worse in several respects to conventional fuel given how much pollution power generation creates. I've always heard the "battery" argument, but never had any numbers assigned to the impacts of the battery fab, but this shows it is the grid pollution that matters most.

Earlier in this thread it was shown from EPA sources of NOx/MWh generation and a typical EVs consumption of 2.5 miles per KWh that the EVs create about 0.2g/mile for NOx or effectively 3x over the standard of 0.07g/mile for NOx. Apparently is ok for EVs just because its not coming out of the tailpipe.
 

NYC-TDI

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Well it seems this thread has moved on from attacking the EPA and started attacking EVs instead. Progress?
 

rustycat

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Well it seems this thread has moved on from attacking the EPA and started attacking EVs instead. Progress?
Actually, I view it as progress. The EV hype needs to be exposed, esp. Tesla's.
Elon is a Salesman, less than 50,000 cars a year in production multi billion dollar gigafactory, Space Ships and Pneumatic Tubes......

I think EVs will be important in the future, but not until we figure out Cheap Power Generation, which will probably be fusion power.
 

ChemMan

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I think EVs will be important in the future, but not until we figure out Cheap Power Generation, which will probably be fusion power.
Average US electrical rate is $0.10 per kWh. Model S uses 320Wh per mile (including charging losses). That is 3.2 cents per mile. Many states offer time of use pricing for EV so if you charge overnight when demand is lower the cost is half that (or less) which would be <2 cents per mile. At 2 cents per mile and current gas prices one would need 100mpg to have the same fuel costs.

There are a lot of challenges with EV but cost of power isn't one of them.
 

hikertdi

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Average US electrical rate is $0.10 per kWh. Model S uses 320Wh per mile (including charging losses). That is 3.2 cents per mile. Many states offer time of use pricing for EV so if you charge overnight when demand is lower the cost is half that (or less) which would be <2 cents per mile. At 2 cents per mile and current gas prices one would need 100mpg to have the same fuel costs.

There are a lot of challenges with EV but cost of power isn't one of them.
The avg power rate in the US has not been 10cents for quite some time. The avg is 13 cents and on the east coast approaches 20cents.
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a

Today's diesel prices and power cost in the NE area make EVs equivalent cost to a TDI to operate.
 

SageBrush

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Average US electrical rate is $0.10 per kWh. Model S uses 320Wh per mile (including charging losses). That is 3.2 cents per mile. Many states offer time of use pricing for EV so if you charge overnight when demand is lower the cost is half that (or less) which would be <2 cents per mile. At 2 cents per mile and current gas prices one would need 100mpg to have the same fuel costs.
There are a lot of challenges with EV but cost of power isn't one of them.
I read enough of the Tesla owner website to know that few people use TOU. The discount at night gets wiped out by the high rates during the day.

Average national fuel cost is indeed somewhere in the 11 cents/kWh range but the range is from about 8 cents up to 40ish in the high tier in California. It is not by chance that (IIRC) half of LEAF and Tesla owners have PV: in part to pursue an environmental agenda, but a lot of it is simply financial. So the fuel cost actually mirrors PV cost pretty well, since owners are motivated to put up PV if their utility is more expensive.

Residential PV without subsidy is around $3 a watt on average, and that produces 1.5 - 1.75 kWh annually for ~ 25 years. Using 3 miles per kWh,
300 cents buys you somewhere in the range of 112.5 - 131.25 Tesla miles.
 

Jeta Life

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If you go to middle of America and tell people they can't have a pickup truck they'll laugh at EVs.
Trucks will never die as long as Americans keep buying F150s, Ram 1500s, Chevy Silverados, etc. US will keep producing and making money from the gas business.
That's just middle of America. As for my neighbors they all have three rows: Explorer, Pilot, Enclave, Highlander, Pathfinder, Acadia, Escalade, Santa Fe, Suburban, and soon to come Cross Blue.
Just google a search on how many of these vehicles sell. What continues to astound me is how many keep selling, as long as gas prices stay low.
 
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ChemMan

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The avg power rate in the US has not been 10cents for quite some time. The avg is 13 cents and on the east coast approaches 20cents.
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_6_a

Today's diesel prices and power cost in the NE area make EVs equivalent cost to a TDI to operate.
Well that is the thing about averages. If power in your area is above average then power somewhere else must be below average. Still use the 13 cents per kWh that is 4 cents per mile or 60mpg for equivalent fuel costs. Still shows you hardly need massively cheaper power. Even off peak pricing at half that would require an efficiency which is simply impossible to have similar fuel prices.
 
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AntonLargiader

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Trips to the backwoods don't happen that often - kind of like adding a room to the house for that yearly family get together. I'm sure you could rent a gasser for outings.
Yep. We're a 1-car family, and rented a second car for a few days this month because it made sense. WAY cheaper than having to own it, sort of like an RV for most people. Families who RV or back country car camp on a regular basis may be better off owning a vehicle for that, but it's not really germane to this discussion.

How much impact does the heater have on range? Thinking about sitting in traffic during a New England winter. We were below 0f last year.
Shawn
My in-laws reported a rise in power consumption from 290 Wh/mi (5000 mile average) to 340 when using the heater recently. Highway driving, 85S.
 

ChemMan

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I read enough of the Tesla owner website to know that few people use TOU. The discount at night gets wiped out by the high rates during the day.
Many power companies offer a separate tariff for BEV. Like Dominion power in Virginia (and parts of NC and Maryland). Residential rate is ~$0.10 per kWh. BEV charging between 1am and 5am is $0.04 per kWh. That is becoming more common because it is a win-win for power companies. They can sell more power without building newer plants plus drive adoption of BEV and plugin hybrids.

Sure if you have $0.40 power, need to make 700 mile road trips daily, have cheap diesel, and can't use solar power then .... not surprisingly an EV would be a horrible fit. That isn't exactly the norm though. Likewise if you need to pull a 60ft boat buying a Jetta is probably a bad idea. :)

Still I am not saying EV are magical unicorns. There are a lot of drawbacks, the largest being the very high cost of batteries. I am just saying the "high" cost of power isn't one of them.
 
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delsvr

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I read enough of the Tesla owner website to know that few people use TOU. The discount at night gets wiped out by the high rates during the day.
Average national fuel cost is indeed somewhere in the 11 cents/kWh range but the range is from about 8 cents up to 40ish in the high tier in California. It is not by chance that (IIRC) half of LEAF and Tesla owners have PV: in part to pursue an environmental agenda, but a lot of it is simply financial. So the fuel cost actually mirrors PV cost pretty well, since owners are motivated to put up PV if their utility is more expensive.
Residential PV without subsidy is around $3 a watt on average, and that produces 1.5 - 1.75 kWh annually for ~ 25 years. Using 3 miles per kWh,
300 cents buys you somewhere in the range of 112.5 - 131.25 Tesla miles.
Just to toss another anecdote into the mix: my coworker hasn't done nearly this level of detail in figuring out his fuel costs. He just feels good about the garage near our office fueling his Tesla for free. He also gives me the impression that, for the moment, many garages in our area (NE/NY/NJ) dole out free (subsidized) electricity for EVs. He plans his commutes so he doesn't fuel up at all at home. He is of course the sort of Tesla owner that really can't afford a Tesla.

I think I've strayed off topic.
 

tariq

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Well it seems this thread has moved on from attacking the EPA and started attacking EVs instead. Progress?
Probably the only thread in a car forum where "displacement" has nothing at all to do with engines.:)
 

nwdiver

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We want to have our cake and eat it too: high horsepower, very low fuel consumption, and squeaky clean emissions. It seems impossible (at least without SCR) to have all three. The squeeze is going to become even greater when the difference in highway fuel consumption on the highway, between a TSI and TDI, is about 0.6 L/100 km.
It's actually somewhat easy.... just not with an ICE ;)
 

SageBrush

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Depends entirely on how much one drives.
The arithmetic ends up being a trade-off between day and night-time consumption. Tesla owners tend to drive a lot, but they also tend to consume a lot during the day. LEAF owners on the other hand drive less, but consume less during the day.

Either way, it is unusual for either group to choose TOU. It happens, but not often. As I posted above, the smart move ends up being PV. The other issue with TOU is that it typically means more coal consumption.

*EV+PV is the way to go, and it gets better by the year.

Oops -- sorry for the off-topic. I'll stop. There seemed to be a lull in relevant news.
 
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nwdiver

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We need less sensationalism, and more science when discussing this issue.

VW picked a figurative flower in the park. They will be fined for it, just as a visitor to a park will if caught picking a real flower in a national park. The reason is to dissuade everyone from picking flowers and ruining the park.
Statistically VW has caused ~4k premature deaths...

With the caveat that there is a benefit to the lower CO2 emissions of TDIs.

11M cars is not a small numbers... that falls under your example of being a 'big deal'


As soon as they develop a battery pack with a 500 mile range you can count me in.
I can count on 1 hand the number of times I've wished for >200 miles of range in the last 3 years and 75k miles of road trips. When your drive way is your gas station and you can refuel for free while you eat lunch it's a whole new world. Those conveniences more than compensate for losing range that I rarely ever used.
 

redpill

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As soon as they develop a battery pack with a 500 mile range you can count me in.
Wow, how often do you drive 500+ miles in a day? I don't think I'd want to do that in any car.

The question is will they retrofit effected TDI cars with it...
It's not about capability, of course they could do it. The only consideration is the $$$. Or should I say the €€€.
 

Mike_04GolfTDI

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I can't use an electric vehicle because it would cost me $2 million to buy a house where I can plug it in.

By living in a condo, I have saved $1.5 million, which will pay for a lot of diesel.

That is the problem with EVs in this neck of the woods. The EVs I do see driving around here must be owned by multi-millionaires, I assume. They probably don't care about fuel costs, they just think it's neat, and have another car to use when the EV isn't convenient.
 

rotarykid

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More than close.

California in 2010 NOx is 185 mg/kWh, or right about 70 mg/mile (equivalent.) It is lower now, and will continue to fall as CA approaches 33% renewables by 2020 and upgrades the NG power to combined cycle.
So from a CA perspective the car standard makes some sense. And where CA leads in air and car pollution regulation, the nation follows
Again I call BS on this! All CARB has done is tail pipe shift to rest of the west as they implement their so called greener power standards. Sure on the ground there the air is cleaner today, but at a real cost to the people who live in areas where most of CA's out of state producers.....

The EPA has put plans into works to deal with this, but without the political will to clean up power production across the US western state's power grid these plans are meaningless.......

How many here know of the power plant which is one of the dirtiest in the world which produces the power to pump water across arizona???

Without this the dirtiest of all in the world power plant arizona would be a desolate desert still with no one living there....

And what about all of the power used today to get water to S. & Central CA????? Most of that energy comes from coal fired power plants.......

The minuscule amounts of pollution put out by our non-existent light duty diesel autos is meaningless in this big picture......

And a look at this picture shows this over restriction of vehicles no one has sold here in any numbers for three decades now to be nothing more than a political give away to make the air look cleaner on paper.....

While allowing the worst of our polluters a few more decades of unregulated in any meaningful way of power production......
 

nwdiver

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I can't use an electric vehicle because it would cost me $2 million to buy a house where I can plug it in.
I agree we need to really expand street side charging. It's been proposed that one way for VW to redeem itself is a hard turn supporting EVs. Helping to fund that infrastructure would be part of it.

I would imagine that if VW proposed spending $16B on VW badged public chargers in place of a $14B EPA fine that would be a win for both parties. :)
 

nesdon

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The grid average as of 2014 show EV twice as damaging to air quality as gasoline or diesel.
Yes, the same graph show that EV can be much much better than diesel or gasoline when charged from wind, dynamic water or solar. I live in Berkeley, CA. Most of my around town is by bicycle.
That is the national average owing the the extensive use of coal in other states.

CA uses no coal, we are all NG or WWS, although we do import a significant but minority amount of coal power from our neighbors. Given CA's aggressive build out of wind and solar, I would bet we would fall closer to the NG number in that report, which says that is less than any ICE fuel.

I live in Berkeley too, and mostly ride my bike (or at least did until it was stolen last week), as do most of my coworkers at the company I work for building carbon-negative, waste-biomass electrical generators. One of the folks on our board is Dan Kammen, who is the founding director of Cal's Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL), the Co-Director of the Berkeley Institute of the Environment, and the Director of the Transportation Sustainability Research Center, and he feels strongly that biomass energy with carbon capture (BECC) can transform all these calculations.

Right now, CAL fire has many thousands of acres of forest they need thinned to help prevent wild fires, and millions of beetle killed trees they need cut. This represents a huge amount of fuel that will decompose back into CO2 and even Methane. When you look at ag and forest waste nation wide, you see that this is not the non factor that most energy policy paints it as.

Biomass is rarely spoken of because of the bad press it got over the ill effects of some ill advised biofuel programs and subsidies. Just like our little diesel friends will soon discover, bad reputations due to yellow media SPEWING purple prose can be very hard, if not impossible, to overcome.

There were plenty of auto industry and energy policy wonks who 15 years ago declared impossible what Tesla has managed to achieve to date. Because it isn't doesn't mean it can't be. There are things like Bombardier and Nissan's Prime Mover system using inductive charging that has the potential to allow continuous on road charging of EV's, giving them unlimited range. There are also promising wave and tidal energy system being developed.

I think Elon is completely right in his bet that we will and should transition to EV's. It may be later than sooner, but it is likely inevitable. Hopefully by then, rich dads will be buying their spoiled daughters beautifully restored TDI's and Prii.
 
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