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Fuels & Lubricants Discussion all about Fuels & Lubricants. synthetic oil, conventional oil, brands, change intervals, diesel grades, gelling and such debated items like that. Non TDI related postings will be moved or removed. This forum is NOT for the discussion of biodiesel and other alternative fuels.

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Old September 6th, 2018, 11:26   #16
turbobrick240
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I wonder if the VW Emission scandal might have been politically motivated, at least partially to cut diesel cars out of the "demand" side of Fuel supplies.
In a word- no. The cheating tdi's use an inconsequential amount of fuel as compared to trucking. They basically have no impact on demand or pricing.
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Old September 9th, 2018, 11:44   #17
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The point other articles I've read make is that ships moving away from bunker fuel and into the middle distillates with lower sulfur means these boats will now be competing with over the road vehicles for the same fuel.
If ships are moving away from bunker fuel, then refiners will have an incentive to produce more ULSD (or at least LSD) and less bunker fuel. So I don't foresee any shortages of diesel fuel anywhere, except maybe in some Third World markets.
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Old September 13th, 2018, 17:16   #18
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If ships are moving away from bunker fuel, then refiners will have an incentive to produce more ULSD (or at least LSD) and less bunker fuel. So I don't foresee any shortages of diesel fuel anywhere, except maybe in some Third World markets.
Well, I wouldn't say shortage, but certainly an increase in demand for a product generally yields an increase in price until things level out.

Not saying we should expect to have a lack of fuel, just that we might be paying more for it for awhile during the adjustment period.
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Old September 13th, 2018, 22:17   #19
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There should be a decrease in demand with dieselgate, and with VW and other companies exiting the market for diesel cars. Maybe they will offset each other.
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Old September 14th, 2018, 08:18   #20
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If ships are moving away from bunker fuel, then refiners will have an incentive to produce more ULSD (or at least LSD) and less bunker fuel. ...
Yes, but you also have to consider that bunker fuel, aka 'resid' is a thick tarry like substance which is used for asphalt, roofing tar, and other heavy thick products which do not flow at normal temperatures. To crack that stuff into light and middle distillate products requires a lot of hydrogen input as well as expensive catalysts. It isn't something they (refiners) are really interested in pursuing, at least, not until the prices rise enough to make it profitable. And in today's economy, that is a long way off.


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Old September 17th, 2018, 09:05   #21
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Forcing that junk back through the cracker will also cause an increase in the areas where it's sued today, like road asphalt and shingles. I don't have a clue how high the price of diesel or gasoline would have to be to make cracking bunker oil economical. For distillate fuels, the price swing for more profit by cracking to gasoline is less than a dime. That's based on a worldwide traded commodity price index.
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Old September 18th, 2018, 06:28   #22
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There is a stink to the onslaught of articles about boaty mcboatface's new diesel requirements and price increases for on-road diesel fuel.

Smells like someone who went way too long on diesel is funding a PR/ad agency to create and hype authoritative-sounding-yet-speculative fake-news articles about diesel future price increases.
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Old November 2nd, 2018, 10:17   #23
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My next-door neighbor is a marine guy, out for a few weeks at a time on a (IIRC) fuel tanker.

He said that there is ALREADY a requirement that any ship within 200 miles of any US coastline has to be using #2 diesel instead of bunker oil. Since he works in the Gulf, 99% of the time they are on diesel. He said that the pricing for the heavy sludge was something like $1/gallon... And that the bulk rate for the #2 diesel is like $3 a gallon, obviously MASSIVELY increasing their cost at the many-tons-per-mile that they consume.

HOWEVER - these articles are making a false equivalency. The IMO is requiring "low sulfur FUELS" not "low sulfur DIESEL" as the new order. So it very well may not be actual #2 diesel stocks and other middle-distillates that the ships take. They are already set up with heating systems to boil their fuel so it will even flow, if there is a way to reduce the sulfur in that stuff and not triple (or more) the cost... They will certainly pursue that b/c of the volume they have to utilize!

There's a LOT of hair-on-fire predictions right now, but since so much of the commerce of the globe relies on #2 diesel, I predict the oil industry will have to respond by developing an alternative product for the ships - something they should have been doing already as this is not a new requirement - and the overall market may blip, but not spike like predicted because it WILL crash the world's economy, and that's no good for anyone.
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