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General Automotive General automotive discussion. This is intended to be a discussion about other not VW and Diesel cars you may have or interested in.

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Old Today, 08:46   #4291
bhtooefr
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The big problem is that the auto industry has incredibly long lead time, so even a sincere attempt to turn a ship around looks for years like stalling for time.

The rule of thumb is that it takes 5 years from conception to release for a new car. Sometimes you can shorten that process (as Tesla's so desperately tried to do with the Model 3), sometimes it takes longer, but it's about 5 years.

Now, an automaker that wasn't internally turning the ship around on EVs by April 4, 2016 (the Monday after the Model 3 announcement)... their management is potentially criminally incompetent, because the Model 3 reservations showed that the demand is very, very real, despite decades of automakers saying that it's not.

But, realistically, everyone except Tesla and maybe the Renault-Nissan Alliance really was giving lip service to EVs, at least up to September 17, 2015. (I say Renault-Nissan rather than GM, because it's become painfully obvious that the Bolt is itself a compliance car, whereas Renault-Nissan is taking things seriously at least in some markets. The LEAF is poorly optimized for our market, but it's optimized for SOMETHING.)

Let's say that VW decided to pour all resources into EVs on September 18, 2015, the day that Dieselgate broke, and started in earnest on the MEB platform. That means five years from then, September 18, 2020, MEB cars will start to be released... and VW's said that 2020 is the release date for the ID and the ID Crozz, which matches up perfectly.

Ultimately, I think you'll see by 2022, who's serious and who isn't. Until 2020, everyone who isn't Tesla or Renault-Nissan will only have lip service to offer, because their real products are under development. (Renault-Nissan will be able to get the LEAF to be an actual serious EV next year, AFAIK.)
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Old Today, 09:14   #4292
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You're right, David. GREET doesn't include the BTU value of the fuel itself apparently.

Edit: The efficiencies are given as a separate entity in the "Well-to-Pump" output file. The actual energy consumed in producing the fuel/electricity is provided and is over and above the mmBTU of the fuel itself, which needs to be considered in the actual efficiencies. The output file is labeled "Well-to-Pump Energy Consumption, Water Consumption and Emissions: Btu or Gallon or g per mmBtu of Fuel Available at Fuel Station Pumps" in GREET.

Does that make sense?
Yes, sir! I downloaded GREET 2017 also and am having some fun learning it.
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