How Much Longer Until Diesel Is Phased Out?

turbobrick240

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Diesel is more expensive in the US for several reasons. The first and main reason is supply and demand. Most foreign countries are more dependant on distillate fuel, driving up demand. A 42 gallon barrel of crude typically yields about 20 gals. of gas and 11 gals. of distillate- which affects supply. D2 and home heating oil are also essentially the same distillate which drives up demand in the colder months.
Another factor is the additional refining required to produce ULSD drives up production costs.
Lastly fuel taxes on D2 are about $.06 more per gallon than the tax on gasoline.
 

gatz

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CraziFuzzy

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Diesel is more expensive in the US for several reasons. The first and main reason is supply and demand. Most foreign countries are more dependant on distillate fuel, driving up demand. A 42 gallon barrel of crude typically yields about 20 gals. of gas and 11 gals. of distillate- which affects supply. D2 and home heating oil are also essentially the same distillate which drives up demand in the colder months.
Another factor is the additional refining required to produce ULSD drives up production costs.
Lastly fuel taxes on D2 are about $.06 more per gallon than the tax on gasoline.
In California right now, Diesel is about $0.40 cheaper than Unleaded.
 

turbobrick240

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It was also cheaper here and in much of the country for a period during late summer/fall last year. Again, supply and demand . I would speculate that with the distillate hungry chinese economy hurting badly right now, we might well see D2 prices dip below RUG over most of the country again.
 
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pkhoury

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I despise the race for pickup trucks to have the biggest and brashest-looking front end styling. But on a lighter note ...



... watch this and have a little chuckle :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7TTuN4Jxuk
I wonder if the battery life is impacted if there are greater than 4" snow accumulations on the ground. And I'm sure using the heater inside when it's -15 outside has to affect battery life.
 

pkhoury

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That's politics. They want to keep the trucklines semi-happy.


GA on the other hand....has a .12 higher tax on diesel than gas.

Nearby, RUG is $1.56 and diesel is $2.05.

Donald
And yet the irony is that diesel in GA is still cheaper than CA, even with tax being higher.

When I was there a few weeks ago visiting family for New Years, RUG was around $2.99 and diesel was $2.50-2.70 (I got stuck paying $3.29, because the car I drove out required premium).
 

VeeDubTDI

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Just watched motorweek from this week, they had a Nissan Titan XD Turbodiesel they reviewed/tested this week....

MW claimed 18.5 mpgs in their test loop so that thing must be more about towing & power than mpgs....Which for me at least defeats the purpose of looking for a diesel in the lighter truck class....

I was expecting close to or similar to the high 20s in the real world in chrysler's CDI 1500 pickup is seeing. Under 20 in the XD'x TD for MW's test loop is very disappointing in that offering with diesel power.....
I'm not sure why you'd expect a 5.0 V8 in a 2500 chassis (that is, basically, what the XD is) to get similar fuel economy to a 3.0 V6 in a 1500 chassis. :confused:
 

dmarsingill

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And yet the irony is that diesel in GA is still cheaper than CA, even with tax being higher.

When I was there a few weeks ago visiting family for New Years, RUG was around $2.99 and diesel was $2.50-2.70 (I got stuck paying $3.29, because the car I drove out required premium).
Not in my area....diesel has not been cheaper than RUG for years.

Donald
 

TDIWings

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Welcome to the forum. That's an interesting point about diesel being a "strategic" resource. I'd agree that we won't see diesel being phased out anytime soon.
Thanks!
Regarding diesel not going away due to strategic resource status - its not even so nefarious as this. From a given barrel of oil, there is a set mix of compounds. Simple distillation results in separating this by boiling point, so the cheapest refining results in a fixed mix of fuels. To deviate from this takes extra processes (hydro-cracking, for instance) which add considerable to the cost. This means there is a balance point of gasoline to diesel production that is always being pushed towards, as deviating from that price point results in the higher demand fuel being priced higher, causing a shift away from it.
Granted. Though cracking and fracking is generally not applied to strive for a specific amount of gas and diesel but rather based on the origin of the crude. The sweetest crude (i.e. north sea) will generally be the most expensive, for which reason it just gets distilled and still yields a high amount of light hydrocarbons like gas, diesel and jet. A heavier crude oth, will generally be cheaper, but yield a smaller amount of light fuels, but since it was cheaper to begin with, it's enconomically viable, up to a point, to refine it further. Still, this type of crude and further refining will produce more heavy fuel and tar which needs to be sold for a profit in order to make whole wheel turn (RE bunker C a few pages up I think).
Diesel is more expensive in the US for several reasons. The first and main reason is supply and demand. Most foreign countries are more dependant on distillate fuel, driving up demand. A 42 gallon barrel of crude typically yields about 20 gals. of gas and 11 gals. of distillate- which affects supply. D2 and home heating oil are also essentially the same distillate which drives up demand in the colder months.
Another factor is the additional refining required to produce ULSD drives up production costs.
Lastly fuel taxes on D2 are about $.06 more per gallon than the tax on gasoline.
The first thing I'd like to point out is that you may or may not be correct about most foreign countries being more dependant on distillate. I would mainly agree with that statement though I'd add that the same holds true for the US (see below). And based on this, probably the main reason why gas is more expensive in said countries is heavier taxation (being that it is a consumer fuel). A perfect example is 100LL vs Jet A1 in Germany. A liter of 100LL sells for around 3€ at most airports (being leaded, it's already more expensive to produce, transport and store and has like 100% more taxes on it, being a fuel for the rich who fly in 30 to 40 year old GA acft) and €1.6 for Jet A1 because there's basically no tax at all applied to it. This translates to about €11 a gallon for 100LL and €6 for A1 which is on par with international prices.

Anyways, I did a little digging and came with the following figures:
total average fuel consumption for transport in 2014 was 368 million gallons a day. 56% out of that was gas, 22% diesel and 11% jet fuel. The remaining being other energy sources (electricity, natural gas, biofuels, etc).
I couldn't dig up the number for 2014, but in whitepaper published by a USAF Col. claimed that in 06 the DOD consumed 12.6 million gallons of distillate. I was able to dig up a trending graphic which goes out to 2012 that seems to tell that that number as stayed more or less the same since 2003.
In any case, 33% of distillate for transport, plus another 3 or 4% for millitary, rounds up to 37%. That number is considerably higher than the 11 to 42 ratio you posted.
This is why I say it's a strategic resource.

Trains, trucks and ships running on light fuels (i.e. diesel) already have the lowest specific fuel consumption possible. Same goes for commercial aviation, where the trend has been to lower fuel consumption as much as possible, being that it's the number one cost of any commercial flight op.

The same could be said, up to a point, about the military. So what you end up with is:
A transport industry and military that 'need' X amount of distillate. What do you do? You produce X amount of distillate! Side effect, you have Y amount of gas. This Y amount of gas, as you correctly posted, is greater than the amount distillate, which is why gas is mainly cheaper in the US.
 

turbobrick240

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You could make the argument (pretty well) that every energy resource is strategic. I think you're confused about my comment on the yield of gasoline vs. distillate from a barrel of crude. That ratio of distillate to gasoline from the refining process can be increased. But it would require multi billion dollar investments in new refinery designs that just isn't happening to any significant extent at this time.
 

TDIWings

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You could make the argument (pretty well) that every energy resource is strategic. I think you're confused about my comment on the yield of gasoline vs. distillate from a barrel of crude. That ratio of distillate to gasoline from the refining process can be increased. But it would require multi billion dollar investments in new refinery designs that just isn't happening to any significant extent at this time.
Well, actually most of the world does approach every energy source from a strategic standpoint. The dependency on imported energy can cripple an economy in the blink of an eye if that reource becomes unavailable for any reason.

In any case, I understood what you meant and wasn't disagreeing! What I wanted to point out is that the demand of distillate is the one that drives the refining and that to meet that demand, the output of gas in turn covers it's own demand easier. Dunno if I'm making sense? Don't take the numbers I posted at anything other than their face value - I just googled them up (though they did seem to come from reputable sources).
 

rwolff

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And it could be because of the whole stigma of "more cylinders = more power" (or more manliness, I don't know).
V8 trucks are toys. For serious work, you need a 6-cylinder.

What are diesel trucks supposed to get in fuel economy though? I hear numbers all over the place - 8-10mpg empty (for a Dodge 3500) up to 22mpg empty (for a F250 or 2500).
If a pickup is only getting 8 MPG empty, something's wrong. I average 6 MPG - and that's pulling a 53 foot trailer that weighs 15,000 pounds empty (and my typical cargos range from 10,000 pounds to somewhere north of 40,000 pounds).

Not sure I'm ready for a vehicle that requires a step ladder for me to check under the hood.
I don't need a step ladder to check under the hood of my truck. There's no excuse for a toy to need one.

FWIW, the Ram with the 6.7L Cummins engine is, officially, the only full sized truck you can buy with a proper manual transmission.
Are you saying that the Cascadia, various models of Western Star, the 389 Pete, and the W900 Kenworth are not full sized trucks? All are available with proper manual transmissions.
 
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turbobrick240

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V8 trucks are toys. For serious work, you need a 6-cylinder.



If a pickup is only getting 8 MPG empty, something's wrong. .
Nothing wrong with an inline 6 or 4 diesel. I'm a big fan of the Cummins 6BT and 4BT. I also like my Navistar 444. You'll find plenty of V8 diesels in ambulances and utility trucks that are hardly toys. Those who drive Hyundais shouldn't throw stones!:D
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Are you saying that the Cascadia, various models of Western Star, the 389 Pete, and the W900 Kenworth are not full sized trucks? All are available with proper manual transmissions.

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. Perhaps you need to brush up on the definition that the rest of us use to describe "full sized truck". :rolleyes:
 

roflwaffle

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Maybe a TDI in the future. For now... D - 82 Rabbit, 63 190d; H - 00 Insight, 05 Prius ; G - 82 RN30
When I spent more time in CA, there were a lot of things I knew the state was subsidizing that I did NOT support. But I'm not going to turn this into a political rant. Needless to say, no, I didn't support subsidizing them.
I can see that. My question isn't meant to be political, I'm just curious about whether you're basing your views on personal use or general pragmatism, political ideologies aside.
Lets say that the amount you and everyone else would contribute to subsidizing EVs/etc... was less than the amount of indirect benefits that you and everyone else would save in fuel costs/healthcare expenditures/whatever. In that case, would you still oppose subsidies that didn't directly benefit you?
What radiator? I thought it didn't have the same parts as an ICE vehicle, at least that's what nwdiver was trying to spin off.
Maybe, and maybe not. I stopped at a town in TX along I-10 to fill up fuel around the holidays - Fort Stockton, TX - I didn't expect the influx of traffic at EVERY fuel station (it was like going to Costco - 10-15 minute wait to fill up your vehicle). I wouldn't say I was able to plan around this. It ended up blowing about 45 minutes of my time, instead of filling up and leaving. But I don't think a supercharger can charge your battery to 80% as fast as a fuel pump can fill up a fuel tank 80%.
Even at my university, I've seen EVs wait to be charged at the EV stations on campus (because they aren't enough). There are some things one can plan around, and other things, there isn't as much flexibility.
I don't know - last I checked, motor oil hasn't been any cheaper to me, even with the cost of oil being so low. I also don't know about the battery. I had to whine and complain at the Toyota dealership to get them to replace my battery in my Prius, because it wasn't really holding a charge anymore, and was indeed bad - nearly 130K in about 2.5-3 years, only because they never saw someone drive a hybrid so much. Going uphill was the worst - the battery would only give power for maybe half a mile going up say Angeles Crest Hwy. Wouldn't repeated ascent and descent wear out the battery a lot faster, especially for those who might have an EV in So Cal who live in Palmdale/Lancaster or the high desert and commute to LA every day?
  • EVs have a ton of parts that ICEs do. Body, suspension, etc... Anything that can be reused would be. Granted, instead of removing heat from an engine, a radiator would remove heat from a battery pack when it's being charged quickly, but the idea is the same.
  • It is harder if you're in the edge of your range, but mass market EVs like the III/Bolt will increase that coverage. Not having access to charging at work isn't as much of an issue if I can go to work and back all week without needing a charge. YMMV on the suitability of refueling, but personal anecdotes seldom generalize to everyone.
  • I've seen a ton of rebates for oil. I have 4 jugs of Mobil 1 0W-20 Synthetic at ~$12/each I've nabbed over the past 4 months. That's 80k miles of oil for my Honda. Probably more if I did an oil analysis to stretch my OCIs, but one test pays for ~2.5 oil changes, so it's probably not economically beneficial unless I can consistently go 25k+ miles before a change.
  • Hills wouldn't present much of an issue for most EVs these days because of their size and better battery management. They were an issue for early hybrids, especially combined with heat, because you can drive down the hill, charge the battery up, get to work, shut down the car, and let it sit all day in the sun. High state of charge (SOC) + Heat is the worst thing you can do to a battery. Honda had a recall on the first gen Insight for this. The stock BMS would charge the pack when it was too hot and kill it prematurely. Running out of charge is a pain in the butt on the way up, but it wouldn't affect battery life much.

    EVs on the other hand have way more capacity, so it'd take a pretty unique commute to arrive at work fully charged. The Leaf is the only EV that really had that problem, and that mostly due to heat, not SOC. Nissan used only air to regulate temperatures and only did that when the car was on, which really hurt battery life. All the other EVs made either used batteries that did better in the heat or they used coolant to regulate battery temperature.

    Dealing with dealers is always a pain in the ass. I had a module go out on my Prius last year at 200k+, but replacement was maybe 2+ hours and $80 bucks for a pair of used balanced modules? There are couple other modules that'll I'll probably need to replace in the next 100k miles, and at some point it'll turn into a whack-a-mole situation where I'd be better off getting a new pack or swapping all the cells from a low mileage/newer pack in, but it'll probably be OK for now. I've read about people who have just replaced the electrolyte, assuming some of the cells haven't shorted, and gotten capacity back to stock, but the weak link is the plastic case. It'll leak again in a few months (or less) and you'll have to replace the electrolyte. It'd be awesome if someone came up with a good reusable 3D printed case with ABS or something. At that point, the only replacement modules you would need would be when an existing one shorted, and that only happens when they run low on electrolyte.
 

CMac

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My prediction is that diesels will survive, as 2-cylinder engines powering generators - like the Volt and BMW i3 vehicles. Electric motor for powering the vehicle, batteries for 50-100 miles range, and an on-board generator to allow long distance cruising. These vehicles will last until either batteries are greatly improved and much cheaper; some other power source is found for our vehicles or private vehicles are either abandoned or legislated out of existence.
Diesels are simply more efficient than gasoline engines, and used to run a generator - i.e. a constant, known load - can be configured to be just as pollution free as gasoline engines without the use of ad-blue systems
 

roflwaffle

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Maybe a TDI in the future. For now... D - 82 Rabbit, 63 190d; H - 00 Insight, 05 Prius ; G - 82 RN30
With larger battery packs I think the lines will blur a bit too, maybe towards HCCI/similar engines/generators.
 

CraziFuzzy

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My prediction is that diesels will survive, as 2-cylinder engines powering generators - like the Volt and BMW i3 vehicles. Electric motor for powering the vehicle, batteries for 50-100 miles range, and an on-board generator to allow long distance cruising. These vehicles will last until either batteries are greatly improved and much cheaper; some other power source is found for our vehicles or private vehicles are either abandoned or legislated out of existence.
Diesels are simply more efficient than gasoline engines, and used to run a generator - i.e. a constant, known load - can be configured to be just as pollution free as gasoline engines without the use of ad-blue systems
Diesel's are not really more efficient in this situation though. The key advantage of diesel vs. gasoline is that it can burn a lot leaner when at low loads, while gasoline has to maintain a much higher fuel flow just to keep the engine running. In this given situation, the generator would not be kicking on until the battery is depleted enough to fully load the generator, in which case, a purpose built gasoline engine would be just as efficient as a similarly designed diesel.
 

turbocharged798

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A diesel engine is around 15% more efficient than a typical gasoline engine because diesel run lean. Ironically, this is exactly they pump out NOx.
 

pkhoury

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I can see that. My question isn't meant to be political, I'm just curious about whether you're basing your views on personal use or general pragmatism, political ideologies aside.
Lets say that the amount you and everyone else would contribute to subsidizing EVs/etc... was less than the amount of indirect benefits that you and everyone else would save in fuel costs/healthcare expenditures/whatever. In that case, would you still oppose subsidies that didn't directly benefit you?
Yeah, probably. The only government subsidy I really support is higher education, but that's about it. And even there, there is still a lot of waste in the food chain, so it never really benefits educators and students like it should.

  • EVs have a ton of parts that ICEs do. Body, suspension, etc... Anything that can be reused would be. Granted, instead of removing heat from an engine, a radiator would remove heat from a battery pack when it's being charged quickly, but the idea is the same.
  • It is harder if you're in the edge of your range, but mass market EVs like the III/Bolt will increase that coverage. Not having access to charging at work isn't as much of an issue if I can go to work and back all week without needing a charge. YMMV on the suitability of refueling, but personal anecdotes seldom generalize to everyone.
Not sure what's considered edge of range. When I lived in the desert, my one way commute was about 85-90 miles, although that was cut in half if I took Metrolink. But even at the Metrolink stations, the EV chargers were all taken up, and I wasn't willing to get there at 5am to reserve a charger (as that would've meant a 19 hour workday for me, being that I wouldn't usually get home until sometime between midnight and 2am). I would also take backroads on my commute, which also meant a lot of acceleration and twisty, windy roads on both uphill and downhill. Makes me wonder if the suspension on future EVs can be changed like they can on ICE vehicles now, and what kind of range I would see if my speed is between 70 and 80 (my current commutes range from 160-250 miles round trip, with no charging stations available, average speeds around 73mph, and lots of WOT when I have to pass someone doing 25mph below that).
 

LRTDI

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They already tried to phase it out by taxing it higher than gas.

Up the taxes and all economics associated with diesel road vehicles gets crushed.

However trucks will use it so their services will cost consumers more.

Airlines use Jet A which is diesel.

Its like a line of dominoes.
 

GoFaster

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A diesel engine is around 15% more efficient than a typical gasoline engine because diesel run lean. Ironically, this is exactly they pump out NOx.
The Atkinson-cycle spark-ignition engine in the outgoing-generation Toyota Prius is around 37% efficient at its best BSFC point, and Toyota says the new one does better.

VW's TDI engines have historically been around 42% efficient at their best BSFC point, and we now know that they were cheating in order to do that.

It's fair to say that in the best BSFC range, and taking into account what is necessary to conform to emission standards, the diesel engine is more like 8% - 10% better BSFC. The diesel engine has better BSFC when operating "off design" but if you are going to do a hybrid powertrain, the whole point is to get the engine closer to best BSFC and shut it down completely when it is "off design".

On top of that, the diesel emission control strategies - not "cheating!" - require the emission control system to be kept in a certain temperature range. They don't like starting and stopping, but if you want to operate in that best BSFC range in a low-demand condition (city driving) you have to start and stop it because otherwise it is making too much power to operate the vehicle, and if you throttle it back, you are operating "off design" and losing efficiency! The gasoline engine emission control strategy is a lot more tolerant of starting and stopping ... but even those let out a wee fart every time the engine starts ...

On an automotive scale, if you are going to go hybrid, the economics of going diesel on top of that have never worked out and they still don't and probably never will.

Even in commercial applications, they have been troublesome. Toronto Transit Commission has not been happy with their hybrid buses.

All-electric could very well end up being the better deal in those applications. I know New Flyer Industries has some demonstrator all-electric transit buses running around, and they're the biggest bus manufacturer in North America, so it's probably going to happen.
 
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