Panel predicts diesels could hit 20 percent of U.S. market by 2020

natl security

cooldieseldude said:

You can blame the environmentalist because they have made it next to impossible to build any new refineries in the US. The problem is not with Oil supply (trust me we have more than enough dead dinosaur).

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though I thought I heard rumblings that the oil indistry wanted "emergency" permission to drill in Alaska wilderness area(s) for "national security" because we get sooo much oil from the middle east . . .

gets so a person doesn't know whether to believe the oil industry or Washington . . .

With Venezuela nationalizing their petroleum industry, taking it over from foreign companies, I can see why the U.S. companies would much rather drill at home.

An interesting link on where we get our oil from:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

In the news over the last few months, it's been reported that a lot of formerly unknown oil deposits have been found beneath the Gulf of Mexico and off the shore of Brazil. Though it'd take years to get the engineering surveys done and get rigs in place, I hope we can get more oil flowing out of FRIENDLY places.

Yes, refinery capacity has a lot to do with the high cost of diesel here in the States, though diesel is rising faster than RUG in South Africa as well (where I live part of the year.) The other factor in the cost of diesel is the worldwide conversion to ULSD. However, nowhere have I seen an unbiased report on what the ULSD conversion costs a refiner, either in capital investment or in operating costs. And by the way, what do the refiners do with all that sulfur they have eliminated from the fuel??

DickSilver said:

Yes, refinery capacity has a lot to do with the high cost of diesel here in the States, though diesel is rising faster than RUG in South Africa as well (where I live part of the year.)

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Exactly (though I realize you didn't mean it that way), US refinery capacity has little or nothing to do with the current differential cost of diesel and RUG in the US (or in South Africa). The refinery capacity is the same as when diesel was priced below RUG in the US last summer. Current price of diesel is driven primarily by world wide market demand (and the high cost of crude). US price of RUG is rising quickly right now and will be ugly by summer. Again, the change has little to do with refinery capacity. World wide demand will continue to rise and poking a couple of holes in a wildlife refuge will not solve the supply problem. (Fasten your seatbelt, it's going to be a bumpy ride!)

"a person doesn't know whether to believe the oil industry or Washington "

There's a DIFFERENCE?!!

Alot of the ignorant people are starting to come around, because for what they are, no other engine gets better mileage.

Dooglas said:

Exactly (though I realize you didn't mean it that way), US refinery capacity has little or nothing to do with the current differential cost of diesel and RUG in the US (or in South Africa). The refinery capacity is the same as when diesel was priced below RUG in the US last summer. Current price of diesel is driven primarily by world wide market demand (and the high cost of crude). US price of RUG is rising quickly right now and will be ugly by summer. Again, the change has little to do with refinery capacity. World wide demand will continue to rise and poking a couple of holes in a wildlife refuge will not solve the supply problem. (Fasten your seatbelt, it's going to be a bumpy ride!)

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Yes and no. Same as petrol itself, gas and diesel are worldwide commodities. What has happened is that global demand for diesel has increased faster than global demand for gasoline relative to supply, hence the increased price difference for two products which should usually cost about the same.

You can blame part of it on the fact that US refineries in general produce as much gasoline as reasonably possible in detriment of other petrol byproducts. That will change, but it will take years.

oscarmv said:

You can blame part of it on the fact that US refineries in general produce as much gasoline as reasonably possible in detriment of other petrol byproducts. That will change, but it will take years.

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Someone here once made the good point that since we are now producing ULSD like Europe has had for years, North American refineries are now selling our diesel in Europe where it commands a higher price. That leaves less for us, at a higer price.

Dooglas said:

And will be worth more when you sell it. (Lets put all the pieces in the "cost of driving" equation.)

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TDI's seem to have taken a real price hit lately. The other day I was looking on Ebay at Golf TDI's like mine and there were plenty with no bids, or really low prices. It seems my car is worth about $10,000 now.

In Canada, the best selling car is the Honda Civic. This means it is likely also the easiest car to sell used for a fair price. Apparently it's what people want.

I can pretty much guarantee you won't find people selling their TDI's for more than they paid, like in the stories people were telling a couple years ago. Allegedly, there is a huge demand for them and they sell instantly for huge prices... Not true at all. Locally there are some that have been advertised for months! The prices get lower and nothing happens.

People just don't want them. Maybe it's the high cost of diesel.

By the way, no, I don't expect my TDI to last longer than our other family car, a newer Honda Civic. If I had to bet on which one will require the most money put into it to keep it going in the future, my money would be on the TDI. (ie. the TDI will cost more to keep running, so far it already has with various repairs....the Honda just works, never had a single problem)

Mike_04GolfTDI said:

TDI's seem to have taken a real price hit lately. The other day I was looking on Ebay at Golf TDI's like mine and there were plenty with no bids, or really low prices. It seems my car is worth about $10,000 now.

In Canada, the best selling car is the Honda Civic. This means it is likely also the easiest car to sell used for a fair price. Apparently it's what people want.

I can pretty much guarantee you won't find people selling their TDI's for more than they paid, like in the stories people were telling a couple years ago. Allegedly, there is a huge demand for them and they sell instantly for huge prices... Not true at all. Locally there are some that have been advertised for months! The prices get lower and nothing happens.

People just don't want them. Maybe it's the high cost of diesel.

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Well. I sure don't agree that a fast look at eBay is the best way to determine the value of a used car. The whole point of the Kelly and NADA used car evaluations is to give dealers, buyers, and financial institutions some standardized way of comparing values. Why not look there. You will see that TDI diesels hold their value better than equivalent gassers - TDI Jetta versus gas Jetta, for example. And yes, you will see that Hondas hold their value better than most other gassers. (Who said anything about selling TDIs for more than you paid for them? Can't even do that with a near new Previa any longer. We're talking about depreciation here.)

If people don't want TDIs due to the high cost of diesel, I would suppose that they don't want gassers any longer due to the high cost of gasoline - and they really wouldn't want the sporty and luxury cars that call for premium gas due to the even higher cost of premium gas. Isn't quite that simple, is it? It does seem to be true that many fewer folks want large SUVs due to the high price of fuel (diesel or gas). That is certainly sending General Motors and Ford into a genuine tail spin.

Dooglas said:

Well. I sure don't agree that a fast look at eBay is the best way to determine the value of a used car. The whole point of the Kelly and NADA used car evaluations is to give dealers, buyers, and financial institutions some standardized way of comparing values. Why not look there.

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According to Kelly Blue Book, my car is worth under $13,000 in a private sale. Original cost was well over $30,000 CDN with taxes. That's a pretty big loss, which I will never recover in fuel savings.

Here in Canada, I doubt I would even get $13,000 for it. Ever since VW came out with the "City Golf" everyone just says "but they're $14,900 new." They can't get past the fact that the City Golf is not as well equipped. Most people would rather go for the new car regardless of any options or differences.

So sorry, the "holding their value" argument just doesn't work anymore.

Mike_04GolfTDI said:

According to Kelly Blue Book, my car is worth under $13,000 in a private sale. Original cost was well over $30,000 CDN with taxes. That's a pretty big loss, which I will never recover in fuel savings.

Here in Canada, I doubt I would even get $13,000 for it. Ever since VW came out with the "City Golf" everyone just says "but they're $14,900 new." They can't get past the fact that the City Golf is not as well equipped. Most people would rather go for the new car regardless of any options or differences.

So sorry, the "holding their value" argument just doesn't work anymore.

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We seem to be talking from different planets here. Yes, all motor vehicles depreciate. No, I would not expect savings in fuel use to pay back the entire depreciation of a vehicle over its useful life. My point was that TDI vehicles generally "hold their value" better than equivalent gassers and that is well documented. Up til now, that difference has been more than the differential cost of a TDI VW over the same model with gas engine and should be taken into account when considering overall "cost of ownership".

Go back and look at the estimated Kelley Blue Book value of a gas 2004 GLS Golf equivalently equipped with the same condition and mileage as your TDI. I believe you will find it is $4000-$5000 less.

Oil and Gas Journal magazine week of Apr 14. Editorial page 21:

The jist of the article is higher diesel prices are partly due to EPA 15 ppm sulfur mandate when the idustry tried to negotiate for 50 ppm. (since 1993)

Being in posession of this magazine may incriminate me so go ahead and shoot. I pay the same prices as you at the pump and elsewhere.

I currently go 8 to 9 days 400+ miles on a 10 gal partial fill and current goal is 1 gallon per day consumption.

03 golf 4 dr hatchback

Mike_04GolfTDI said:

TDI's seem to have taken a real price hit lately. The other day I was looking on Ebay at Golf TDI's like mine and there were plenty with no bids, or really low prices. It seems my car is worth about $10,000 now.

In Canada, the best selling car is the Honda Civic. This means it is likely also the easiest car to sell used for a fair price. Apparently it's what people want.

I can pretty much guarantee you won't find people selling their TDI's for more than they paid, like in the stories people were telling a couple years ago. Allegedly, there is a huge demand for them and they sell instantly for huge prices... Not true at all. Locally there are some that have been advertised for months! The prices get lower and nothing happens.

People just don't want them. Maybe it's the high cost of diesel.

By the way, no, I don't expect my TDI to last longer than our other family car, a newer Honda Civic. If I had to bet on which one will require the most money put into it to keep it going in the future, my money would be on the TDI. (ie. the TDI will cost more to keep running, so far it already has with various repairs....the Honda just works, never had a single problem)

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it's kind of funny you say this i was just looking at an ad on Ebay just the other day of a TDI passat going for over $45,000, commanding a higher than new price....interesting

Dooglas said:

We seem to be talking from different planets here. Yes, all motor vehicles depreciate. No, I would not expect savings in fuel use to pay back the entire depreciation of a vehicle over its useful life. My point was that TDI vehicles generally "hold their value" better than equivalent gassers and that is well documented. Up til now, that difference has been more than the differential cost of a TDI VW over the same model with gas engine and should be taken into account when considering overall "cost of ownership".

Go back and look at the estimated Kelley Blue Book value of a gas 2004 GLS Golf equivalently equipped with the same condition and mileage as your TDI. I believe you will find it is $4000-$5000 less.

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Interestingly I believe my fuel savings have paid for the vehicle entirely. Not just the depriciation. I bought my car for 11,000 used with 60 k on it.


I drive 80,000 k a year

If i drive a gasser at 7 liters per 100 km at (1.14/lt) i pay 6384 per year for Fuel

If i drive a diesel at 5 liters per 100 km at (1.20lt) I pay 4800 per year in fuel

that's 1584 per year savings at todays gas prices with higher diesel costs

over 6 years that works out to be $9504 savings in favor of the diesel with the cost of diesel fuel being greater.

However diesel on average was alot cheaper for me 10-15 cents so lets be fair and measure 5 years with diesel 10 cents cheaper per liter.



Diesel 104 per liter at 80 k a year is 4160
Gas at 114 per liter at 80 k a year is 6384

difference of 2224 per year saving me approx 11120 over the cost of a gasoline engine.

I have friends with Honda civics and toyota echo's. Not only is my car more efficient fuel wise it has also been more reliable. I have had less problems than either of those cars.


This was calculated with only 10 cents difference per liter as many of you probably know diesel at one time was even up to 20 cents cheaper than gasoline and the savings add up exponentially. Obviously with higher cost of diesel it will cost u a few cents more per km, however with a diesel you will nearly ALWAYS save.