Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

El Dobro · Aug 15, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
3. Charging infrastructure. This is going to continue for a while as long as manufacturers like GM, VW and others continue to sit on their hands with regard to EV charging infrastructure. It seems that they want to wait for a third party to develop recharging infrastructure, but the problem there is that there isn't a lot of profit in it, so most companies aren't interested, and those that are have an uphill battle with very slim margins.

One of the requirements of Chevy dealers that are authorized to sell Bolts is that they have to set up charging stations the are accessible to Bolt owners, so it's a start.

turbobrick240 · Aug 15, 2017

12 gauge wire would be fine for a 16 amp charger if the run to the service panel is relatively short. 10 gauge isn't much more expensive, and gives more flexibility for run length as well as upgrading to a slightly higher amperage charger in the future. The biggest drawbacks to knob & tube systems imo, are: a. No safety grounding conductor, b. Very limited power supply- usually only 60amps. , c. Age of the wiring usually goes along with deterioration and poorly executed circuit extensions/splices with more modern wire types. Switches are also often on the neutral wire rather than the hot wire.

VeeDubTDI · Aug 16, 2017

El Dobro said:
One of the requirements of Chevy dealers that are authorized to sell Bolts is that they have to set up charging stations the are accessible to Bolt owners, so it's a start.

The Chevy dealers I've been to have Bosch 16 amp (3.3 kW) units, which add about 12 miles of range for every hour the car is plugged in. It goes without saying that this is essentially useless for a fully electric vehicle unless you work there or plan on charging overnight. 3.3 kW is fine for a Volt, since that's the maximum of the car's onboard charger.

What Chevy dealers should be doing is installing two CCS quick charging stations and two 7.2 kW level 2 charging stations at every EV dealership. With this investment, GM would have the beginnings of a nation-wide EV quick charging network. If they partnered with someone like Chargepoint, these stations could bill users and be available to all EV owners.

oilhammer · Aug 16, 2017

Just read in my MB newsletter that the Smart car will be EV only next year, and already two thirds of all the dealers nation wide dumped their franchises.

Although I admit the Smart line was lame anyway. The weedwhacker Mitsubishi gas engine bolted to what has to be the world's worst automated manual gearbox and a price tag equal to a Camry sure seemed to doom them from the beginning. Maybe the EV versions will flourish, but evidently many of the dealers think otherwise.

VeeDubTDI · Aug 16, 2017

oilhammer said:
Just read in my MB newsletter that the Smart car will be EV only next year, and already two thirds of all the dealers nation wide dumped their franchises.
Although I admit the Smart line was lame anyway. The weedwhacker Mitsubishi gas engine bolted to what has to be the world's worst automated manual gearbox and a price tag equal to a Camry sure seemed to doom them from the beginning. Maybe the EV versions will flourish, but evidently many of the dealers think otherwise.

While the gas smart is miserable to drive, the EV is a hoot. It doesn't have that terrible engine or the atrocious transmission.

The new smart EV was supposed to be available this summer, but I haven't seen one yet...

El Dobro · Aug 16, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
The Chevy dealers I've been to have Bosch 16 amp (3.3 kW) units, which add about 12 miles of range for every hour the car is plugged in. It goes without saying that this is essentially useless for a fully electric vehicle unless you work there or plan on charging overnight. 3.3 kW is fine for a Volt, since that's the maximum of the car's onboard charger.

What Chevy dealers should be doing is installing two CCS quick charging stations and two 7.2 kW level 2 charging stations at every EV dealership. With this investment, GM would have the beginnings of a nation-wide EV quick charging network. If they partnered with someone like Chargepoint, these stations could bill users and be available to all EV owners.

Authorized Chevy dealers will also be receiving CCS chargers.

bhtooefr · Aug 16, 2017

Interestingly, Smart voluntarily downgraded the range on that car: http://insideevs.com/2017-smart-ed-loses-range/

251 · Aug 16, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
I'm curious to know what your round-trip commute distance is. Also, what your extra daily mileage is, including side-trips for lunch, dinner, errands, etc.

35 miles one way / 70 miles round trip on 55-mph highways with a few traffic lights, almost no congestion so it's close to ideal for a TDI. Rarely do errands / short trips - closest I come to that is stopping at a bank on way home which is right on my route. I know during summer this is doable with an EV on a single charge but may be an issue in winter on a single charge for some EV's. I use the TDI for commuting to work and road trips only.

I was pleasantly surprised to get 46.5 mpg on a tank driving around NYC/Long Island last month while on vacation which includes Manhattan traffic and some long stretches of slow traffic. That tank was about 400 miles - all of it in NYC/Long Island so no true highway driving was involved.

As previously mentioned I also do some long road trips so having to stop at certain locations in order to charge up plus the time spent charging is a deal breaker for me. If I only did my commute/city driving an EV would make more sense but I factor in road trips and my desire to drive straight through such as South Bend to NYC.

Forgot to mention another factor is nearest Tesla dealer / service center is 140 miles away which is not convenient. To me this is one of the biggest obstacles for Tesla as they will not allow other shops to work on their vehicles. I'm aware this policy is for official Tesla warranty coverage purposes making it a risk to use a non-authorized Tesla service center for anything. I'm sure the majority of the time regular maintenance is all that's needed but it would be nice to have a close by option for/if when an issue pops up. There are a few Tesla dealers over by Chicagoland - closer but still 90+ miles away one way.

I read this thread to keep up with EV's as I know they are improving and may make more sense for me in the future if battery range is improved along with chargers being more widespread. For now the TDI can't be beat for my needs but in 5-10 years who knows?

oilhammer · Aug 16, 2017

Hardly ever see any Smarts of any kind on the roads here. I even worked at a dealer that carried them and aside from a few on their [tiny] corner of the MB dealership, didn't really see much. They were such slow sellers the dealer ended up trying to make some loaner cars for the other brands, but people refused to drive them LMAO.

Another similar failure was the Toyota/Scion IQ. Half a car that somehow managed to cost more than the bigger Toyota Yaris on sale right next to it. Goes to show ya even Toyota can make mistakes. The IQ did have some clever drivetrain packaging though, not that the few people that bought them even knew about the underlying engineering anyway.

bhtooefr · Aug 16, 2017

The problem with the ForTwo and the iQ is that, in the US market anyway, they're solving problems that barely exist in the US. (And, even where you could use their party tricks, it was often made illegal.)

Oilerlord · Aug 16, 2017

VeeDubTDI said:
Good analogy. IMO, the writing is on the wall, especially when you look at the several countries that have introduced ICE bans in the coming decades (most are 20+ years out and only ban new production, not existing vehicles). Those manufacturers that read the writing will be rewarded. Those that ignore it will find themselves behind.

See, and I don't think that analogy makes sense at all. Blockbuster died because they didn't embrace the Internet. A better comparison between Blockbuster & Netflix is every car manufacturer (yes, even Tesla) vs Uber. Just as people have found it unnecessary to rent or own a DVD, a lot of millennials have realized that it doesn't always make sense to rent or own a car.

Tesla hasn't invented a magic cloud service delivery model that is somehow going to put GM, Ford, and Toyota out of business. Tesla may (for now) be building a better mousetrap, but in the end - it's just another car.

oilhammer · Aug 16, 2017

There does seem to be a trend towards younger people not wanting a car. However, some of that is simply due to the fact that a lot of them continue to be carried around and rely upon their parents. And I am talking well into their 30s. I have cousins like that.

rotarykid · Aug 16, 2017

oilhammer said:
There does seem to be a trend towards younger people not wanting a car. However, some of that is simply due to the fact that a lot of them continue to be carried around and rely upon their parents. And I am talking well into their 30s. I have cousins like that.

How true you are. This is especially prominent with people who have grown up in larger cities. Over the years I have had several girlfriends who did not learn to drive for the first time until they were in their mid to late 20s because they didn't need to drive.

I am sure with the restrictions on teenager's driving and how expensive car insurance is now compared to 10 years ago or 15 years ago that there are even more people who cannot afford the insurance who cannot afford the car and just don't see it as an expense they need. In my world it was impossible to get around in and my teenage years without a drivers license, so it was never an issue where I lived, you got the driver's license when you turn 15 or 16. Depending on the state and the rules in that state, you are in.

I even got my school bus driver's license before I got my real drivers license, so the day I actually got my real drivers license, I started driving a high school school bus at the age of 16.

kjclow · Aug 17, 2017

Oilerlord said:
So what are the secret ingredients missing from mainstream adoption of EV's? Is it because some EV's look like dorkmobiles, or is it all about range, charging availability, and charge times, or does it all hinge on the catalyst of $4.00 gasoline?

I think the answer is more about education and experience.

It's all of that rolled together. IMHO, the largest factor for the general public is the price of gasoline. As OH pointed out, there are a lot of large trucks running around with only the driver and beds that have never been used. When gas started hitting $3 a gallon, those trucks either sat or they got traded on the corolla-types. Unless people are pushed out of their comfort zone for being able to drive their big honking trucks/SUVs or having food on the table, things are not going to change quickly.

My biggest concern, however, about EVs is range and charging time. When we go anywhere, it ranges from a 3 hour drive to one daughter or a 14 hour (700+ miles) drive to the other. In the JSW, I stop for fuel twice in the 14 hours and food at least one other time, plus quick bio breaks. The stops for fuel and bio are in the 10 - 15 minute range and food is at least 30 minutes. On our last trip, we had the rear of the JSW loaded with camping and biking gear plus the two bikes hanging off the trailer hitch. Which EV will accommodate that?

I guess I could make a Tesla work for that distance but considering I haven't paid much over $60,000 total of my last three brand new cars, I don't think a Tesla of any series is in my current budget. Yes, I know the 3 series is supposed to be in the $30s but from other posts on here it looks like most will roll out well over $50.

kjclow · Aug 17, 2017

tadawson said:
I think that a lot of it has to do with use. Let's just say you have a decent sized trailered boat or perhaps RV, and only tow it in the summer on weekends, and only desire to have one vehicle. That pretty much puts you in the tow vehicle as a daily driver, since the tow vehicle *can* function as a daily, but a small econo-box suitable only for a daily can't tow . . . making the choice pretty obvious, if one vehicle is the limit. And I can't fault folks for that in the slightest . . . it's their use case, and it makes sense . . .

We're in the start of that discussion. As I get nearer to retirement, we are looking at getting a decent sized trailer. To get something with comfort and space to bring the kids and grandkids, the size and weight goes up quickly. Looking at Chevy's, to tow anything over 8000 pounds you either have to get the 1500 with the largest V8 or a HD. Either option pushes the msrp over $50K US. If I'm spending that much money on a truck, you can bet it will also be my daily driver.

kjclow · Aug 17, 2017

CraziFuzzy said:
As i mentioned, though.. there should be no reason to need to upgrade the entire home just to add EV charging capability. I have seen plenty of old homes with a new service panel feeding 'new' loads, and the original panel and wiring still in place and running as a subpanel from the new one. Cheap to do, and relatively low impact. This provides a decent base to allow future renovations to easily eliminate the old ungrounded wiring a little at a time, with new circuits running to the new service panel, until the old panel is relieved of its duties. In any case, it has little to no impact on the viability of EV's. $1,000 for the new service panel install (that's if paying someone to do it), and $300 to run power to the garage, and $400 for a charger (if you even need one - depending on needs, many (myself included) get by just fine with the 12A 120V EVSE that came with the car.

Many states offer tax incentive and credits for ev charging infrastructure, and this can often installation costs (in this case, the new service panel would be a part of the EVSE install).

We did this 30 years ago when we bought our first house. The previous owner paid for part of it since the service coming in wasn't up to code anyway. The electrician then separated the lights and plug services from any higher loads, such as laundry, kitchen, and furnace blower. His comment then was if the knob and tube was in good shape, live it alone.

SilverGhost · Aug 18, 2017

The towing/hauling problem I have run into is payload. For example you can get a Tacoma that has the towing capacity for the occasional towing, but when RV'ing you bring the family and stuff. So tow a 3500lb trailer with tow capacity of 5000lbs, BUUUT payload is only 1150lbs and between tongue weight and several people you bump against that limit before you even put bikes and coolers in the bed of the truck.

BTW - rough numbers for example. Options such as AC, sunroof, power seats, 4X4 and transmission will affect payload and the exact numbers.

But this is part of the reasoning why people are driving around in big 1/2 ton and even 3/4 and 1 tons as daily drivers. And like others have said, if I just dropped $50k to $60k on a truck, I'm not going to buy a car just to save gas the rest of the time. The tax, insurance, license, and purchase price of a second vehicle would buy a lot of fuel for the gas hog.

Change of subject.

I am surprised code does not require update from K&T when the circuit is touched. And by replacing the main breaker all circuits would be touched. Supposed that depends on locality and more specific to the actual repair/replacement as to what code would require?

On that subject could you add a secondary panel for the garage and/or electric vehicle charging? Tie into mains before existing panel? Also possible some power companies or localities would give tax breaks or incentives to assist in the upgrades?

Oh, and on fast charging - Tesla limits you on how many lifetime fast charges you can do. So the take away is always fast charging does degrade the battery at a faster rate than slow charging. What that means in the real world is use standard charge for most of what you do, like when you get to work and its going to sit all day. Only do fast charge when say battery is run down and emergency such as kids hurt and have to get to doctor, or you are on a long trip for vacation and not practical to wait all day for recharge

If and when we are in the market for a new (not used clunker) car I think an electric would fit at least one of our commutes, if not both. Interesting idea though - who has TWO electric vehicles and has the electric service to handle charging both? Both on capacity of wiring and actual charging hardware.

Jason

bhtooefr · Aug 18, 2017

AFAIK, they're not limiting the number of fast charges you can do, but there is an algorithm at which they limit the rate of fast charging after some unknown parameters that involve high usage of fast chargers. Even on the cars that have been rate limited, the rate is still significantly higher than slow charging.

However, it is still best practice to avoid fast charging unless it's actually needed, for that reason.

Oilerlord · Aug 18, 2017

SilverGhost said:
Interesting idea though - who has TWO electric vehicles and has the electric service to handle charging both? Both on capacity of wiring and actual charging hardware.

Jason

No doubt, some do. I've dreamed about having a Model X in the garage next to my B250e...so assuming we wanted to charge them both simultaneously, we'd have to upgrade the 50 amp service in our garage.

Unfortunately, the realities of life tend to kill those dreams. Even if our second EV had a 100 kWh battery, we'd still need a car like the JSW for long road trips to Arizona, and from experience, I already know that extreme cold cuts an EV's range in half...so what's the point of getting another "long range" EV, when our TDI can do up to 700 miles on one 5-minute "charge"? There's also the bit about the no way, no how we're about to spend $100K+ for another car - ANY car.

nwdiver · Aug 18, 2017

bhtooefr said:
AFAIK, they're not limiting the number of fast charges you can do, but there is an algorithm at which they limit the rate of fast charging after some unknown parameters that involve high usage of fast chargers. Even on the cars that have been rate limited, the rate is still significantly higher than slow charging.

However, it is still best practice to avoid fast charging unless it's actually needed, for that reason.

I seriously doubt that Tesla is doing anything to limit fast charge rates. I've been doing road trips for >4 years with >80k fast-charge miles and I haven't seen a change. I haven't seen any direct reports from Tesla to this effect. The best out there is a blogger saying what a service tech had told him... that's not exactly an official position. Compare that to 'HP-Gate'... where there WAS an official statement from Tesla on the matter... they also stopped limiting power a few months later.

A lot of it is speculation because hitting the peak 135kW charge rate relies on a handful of conditions to line up and it only lasts for a couple minutes before tapering off...

Fast charging doesn't directly cause battery degradation. It's heat that's the enemy and with the cooling system Tesla has that's not much of an issue.

CraziFuzzy · Aug 18, 2017

SilverGhost said:
The towing/hauling problem I have run into is payload. For example you can get a Tacoma that has the towing capacity for the occasional towing, but when RV'ing you bring the family and stuff. So tow a 3500lb trailer with tow capacity of 5000lbs, BUUUT payload is only 1150lbs and between tongue weight and several people you bump against that limit before you even put bikes and coolers in the bed of the truck.

BTW - rough numbers for example. Options such as AC, sunroof, power seats, 4X4 and transmission will affect payload and the exact numbers.

But this is part of the reasoning why people are driving around in big 1/2 ton and even 3/4 and 1 tons as daily drivers. And like others have said, if I just dropped $50k to $60k on a truck, I'm not going to buy a car just to save gas the rest of the time. The tax, insurance, license, and purchase price of a second vehicle would buy a lot of fuel for the gas hog.

Change of subject.

I am surprised code does not require update from K&T when the circuit is touched. And by replacing the main breaker all circuits would be touched. Supposed that depends on locality and more specific to the actual repair/replacement as to what code would require?

On that subject could you add a secondary panel for the garage and/or electric vehicle charging? Tie into mains before existing panel? Also possible some power companies or localities would give tax breaks or incentives to assist in the upgrades?

Oh, and on fast charging - Tesla limits you on how many lifetime fast charges you can do. So the take away is always fast charging does degrade the battery at a faster rate than slow charging. What that means in the real world is use standard charge for most of what you do, like when you get to work and its going to sit all day. Only do fast charge when say battery is run down and emergency such as kids hurt and have to get to doctor, or you are on a long trip for vacation and not practical to wait all day for recharge

If and when we are in the market for a new (not used clunker) car I think an electric would fit at least one of our commutes, if not both. Interesting idea though - who has TWO electric vehicles and has the electric service to handle charging both? Both on capacity of wiring and actual charging hardware.

Jason

Sure, there are SOME people driving around their tow vehicles as their daily driver, but I see that less and less (at least among my acquaintances). Most (myself included) leave the truck/SUV parked most the time. I think I put 4,000 miles on my Armada in the last year, since getting the fiat - most of that driven on a couple RV'ing road trips, and the few times we were taking 6+ people somewhere. Y'know, using the right vehicle for the task. But for getting myself to and from work, and for picking up the kids from school, the Fiat is perfect - especially nice to be able to sit in the air conditioned car waiting for school to get out without having to run the engine. The lease payment on the fiat is less than the fuel costs for those miles in the Armada, so it costs me almost nothing to have the vehicle over the 'daily driver SUV'. I'm guessing that'd be the same situation for most people driving the big beasts around every day.

rustycat · Aug 19, 2017

Here's a nice explanation on carbon emissions and electric vehicles.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...-says-electric-cars-create-more-co2-they-save

turbobrick240 · Aug 19, 2017

That article is neither very accurate or informative. Morgan Stanley clearly has an anti Tesla bias. The "lefty elitist" language used in the article is a dead giveaway. They claim the US grid gets 75% of its electricity from fossil fuels, when in fact it is less than 65%. And EV owners are far more likely than the general population to get much of their electricity from renewable resources. They aren't doing investors any favors with that garbage.
Edit: I misinterpreted the author as being a representative of Morgan Stanley. He isn't.

turbobrick240 · Aug 19, 2017

Here's a much better link to information on EV carbon emissions:
http://afdc.energy.gov

Oilerlord · Aug 19, 2017

rustycat said:
Here's a nice explanation on carbon emissions and electric vehicles.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...-says-electric-cars-create-more-co2-they-save

Nice, perhaps - but not particularly accurate.

From the article (I'm assuming this is the conclusion):

"In other words, "the carbon emissions generated by the electricity required for electricity required for electric vehicles are greater than those saved by cutting out direct vehicle emissions""

While that may be true in areas where the grid is 100% fueled from coal, that isn't the case in areas with nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and other renewable non-polluting sources of energy.

This map has been posted several times in this thread:

At the time the map was created, the US average for EV's compared to gasoline equivalent emissions was 68 mpg. The grid is becoming greener, so I suspect it's probably closer to 80 mpg.

However, that also needs to be balanced against the fact that EV's have a larger initial manufacturing carbon footprint compared to their gasoline equivalent cars.

What's frustrating is the spin, and it goes both ways. The blogger that posted the excerpt on zerohedge wrote is clearly against subsidies, and describes the government (at the time) as "left-leaning political elites". I'd rather read facts rather than an author's personal bias.

bhtooefr · Aug 19, 2017

Newer version of the same map:

Oilerlord · Aug 19, 2017

Interesting that while most of the country's regional numbers tended to rise, the Northwest region fell from 94 mpg to 72 mpg. Were more coal-fired plants put online?

bhtooefr · Aug 19, 2017

Per the eGRID 2014 summary tables, NWPP's resource mix for 341,855,938 MWh was:

Coal: 36.3%
Oil: 0.2%
Gas: 11.9%
Other fossil: 0.2%
Nuclear: 2.8%
Hydro: 39.7%
Biomass: 1.1%
Wind: 6.7%
Solar: 0.0% (note that this is grid data, so home solar that doesn't get sold into the grid counts as negawatts (reduced demand))
Geothermal: 1.0%
Unknown: 0.1%

Per the eGRID 2009 summary tables NWPP's resource mix for 269,325,957 MWh was:

Coal: 29.8%
Oil: 0.3%
Gas: 15.2%
Other fossil: 0.1%
Nuclear: 2.5%
Hydro: 46.5%
Biomass: 1.1%
Wind: 3.8%
Solar: 0.0%
Geothermal: 0.6%
Unknown: 0.1%

However, per the eGRID 2014 FAQ, it looks like the way grid regions were defined changed, which brought four large coal plants into NWPP that were in other regions previously.

CraziFuzzy · Aug 21, 2017

I think a bulk of the change in NWPP has to do with growth. As the energy use in the area increases, and the significant hydro power in the region being a relatively fixed capacity, the only real short term way to handle that growth was to bring on some more fossil sources.

CraziFuzzy · Aug 21, 2017

Also consider that these maps are based only on greenhouse gas emissions. This doesn't consider the significant pollution reduction that EV's bring. The ability to better deal with emissions such as NOx and SOx at a central power plant vs a car's tailpipe mean that actual smog generating pollutants per mile are FAR less for EV's than any other option.

Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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