NHTSA Update on CR HPFP failure investigation

Pat Dolan

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just for the record: it is not a matter of "diesel comes off before gasoline" when refining because refining is a LOT more than one simple step of distillation (which is assigned a Nelson complexity base number of 1). there are two big variables, one on the front end (crude feedstock) and one on the backend (market). If you just took the distillates off the first tower, both would be similar in cost - BUT - very high - because you might have a lot of the wrong product for your market. To make what you need, in both quantity and chemistry, there are a bunch of steps to take the rest of the barrel and dis-assemble (crack) and reform different components to blend motor fuels. In the days before reformulation, even the most complex refinery (able to take a full range of different feedstocks) had complexity numbers well under 10. To make modern fuels (second variable) the peak complexity number is now 15ish. The cost of diesel vs. gasoline is not a fixed ratio, but depends upon what feedstocks and what proportion of what product you are making.

I think you could just use your plant accounting methods to declare either one more or less expensive to produce, and on top of that, each refinery would have a different range of real costs associated.

All of that said: sulphur levels are reduced for pretty much everything (depending relative to how much was in the crude to begin with) but it DOES cost more do more of that one single component of making diesel vs. gasoline when one requires lower sulphur level than the other. But that is a long way from the only cost associated with making either product.
 

John Kuhn

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Economics has much more to do with the price of diesel than U.S. gov't policy. And the change to ultra-low sulfur made the U.S. conform to what the Europeans are doing, to enable emission controls.
 

kjclow

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just for the record: it is not a matter of "diesel comes off before gasoline" when refining because refining is a LOT more than one simple step of distillation (which is assigned a Nelson complexity base number of 1). there are two big variables, one on the front end (crude feedstock) and one on the backend (market). If you just took the distillates off the first tower, both would be similar in cost - BUT - very high - because you might have a lot of the wrong product for your market. To make what you need, in both quantity and chemistry, there are a bunch of steps to take the rest of the barrel and dis-assemble (crack) and reform different components to blend motor fuels. In the days before reformulation, even the most complex refinery (able to take a full range of different feedstocks) had complexity numbers well under 10. To make modern fuels (second variable) the peak complexity number is now 15ish. The cost of diesel vs. gasoline is not a fixed ratio, but depends upon what feedstocks and what proportion of what product you are making.
I think you could just use your plant accounting methods to declare either one more or less expensive to produce, and on top of that, each refinery would have a different range of real costs associated.
All of that said: sulphur levels are reduced for pretty much everything (depending relative to how much was in the crude to begin with) but it DOES cost more do more of that one single component of making diesel vs. gasoline when one requires lower sulphur level than the other. But that is a long way from the only cost associated with making either product.
Great summation Pat. A little more detailed than my usual comments. In the end, it really comes down to global supply and demand. The North American market has larger demand for gasoline and the European market has a larger demand for diesel. It will be very interesting to see what effect the upper plains and lower Canadian oil fields will have once they finally get the pipe line flowing crude to the Gulf refineries.
 

LRTDI

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I fear that things like Keystone are only being used to get the oil to the ports for export.

But this is one hell of a thread drift.

At the rate NHTSA is going any 2009 etc Tdis will have several hundred thousand miles and KM before any decision is reached.
 

kjclow

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However, we do not export crude (as far as I know). We import crude, refine it, and then export finished fuel grades.
 

gulfcoastguy

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I fear that things like Keystone are only being used to get the oil to the ports for export.

But this is one hell of a thread drift.

At the rate NHTSA is going any 2009 etc Tdis will have several hundred thousand miles and KM before any decision is reached.
It's quite possible that we will export some of the finished oil products. The coastal refineries are able to refine heavy oil since they refine heavy oil from Venezuala. Not all refineries are capable of that. Getting permission to expand a refinery is difficult due to NIMBYs and the permitting process and it is allmost impossible to build a new refinery. Europe has the same problem so we sell them diesel and gas. That employs US workers and reduces the trade deficit. Japan has few natural resources but the did similar things in the past: import raw materials and make desireable products out of them then export them for a profit. Gas, diesel, motor oil ect. follow the money. That's capitalism.
 

wilcharl

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My key concern here is NHTSA's lack of movement on this. It was sent for engineering analysis nearly two years ago, and no documents have been updated in over a year. It continues to appear on their monthly activity reports as an open investigation where other investigations show either movement or closure. To VW’s credit they have made movement in terms of first issuing the DIESEL ONLY stickers, and second installing misfueling guards. This may have bought them some time in NHTSA making a determination as they would have to see if either of these impacted the failure rates, but it appears at face value, the rate of complaints on NHTSAs website continues to be steady. I do feel as though the failure rate is small enough of the total owner population, and the consequences of a failure minor enough from a safety perspective (No fatalities so far that I know of) to not warrant an engineering fix, but rather replace pumps on an as failed basis thru a warranty extension program to say 150,000 miles.

Just my two cents
 

kapps

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You, sir, have never worked for the government ;). All joking aside, my last car was an '02 MINI. The early cars like mine had issues with the power steering pumps going out leading to a $1k+ repair. I went 136k miles with no problems besides a little weep from the hoses but many had to replace their pumps. Last year (10 years after this all started), I got a letter from MINI saying they extended the warranty on PS pumps for 12 yr/150k miles. Or maybe it was 10/120. Either way, I was surprised so maybe VW will eventually do something similar.
 

kjclow

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You, sir, have never worked for the government ;). All joking aside, my last car was an '02 MINI. The early cars like mine had issues with the power steering pumps going out leading to a $1k+ repair. I went 136k miles with no problems besides a little weep from the hoses but many had to replace their pumps. Last year (10 years after this all started), I got a letter from MINI saying they extended the warranty on PS pumps for 12 yr/150k miles. Or maybe it was 10/120. Either way, I was surprised so maybe VW will eventually do something similar.
I plan on still owning both my TDIs past 2019, so a ten year wait period for an extended warranty would be okay. Just have to wonder what kind of miles I'll have by then.
 

Diesl

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To VW’s credit they have made movement in terms of first issuing the DIESEL ONLY stickers, and second installing misfueling guards.
Are you seriously giving them credit for that as an appropriate action?
 

wilcharl

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I think they have made an effort to rule out misfuelings. That said, I don't believe either the stickers or the guards have impacted the rate of reported failures to NHTSA.

My thought since the day I bought the car is that the pump is not robust enough to handle the available fuel in the US. This results in a small but significant number of failures.

Is the cost vs risk worth an engineering fix ? I don't think so. The cost to retrofit lets say 500,000 vehicles (VW claimed a sale of 100k in the US alone in 2013) vs. a warranty extension and paying per failure just seems like the cost favors the warranty extension

Do I worry my pump might grenade ? Not really (knock on wood) but I feel the failures are enough and the catastrophic effects so great in cost that the right solution is for VWoA to continue what they seem to be doing as "goodwill" as a matter of policy in terms of a warranty.

The HPFP is the one part that scares me. Even a turbo failure is 1000 bucks from id parts and if mine failed I could eat it, but the hpfp is costly and the unknown scares me.
 

GTIDan

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I think they have made an effort to rule out misfuelings. That said, I don't believe either the stickers or the guards have impacted the rate of reported failures to NHTSA.

My thought since the day I bought the car is that the pump is not robust enough to handle the available fuel in the US. This results in a small but significant number of failures.

Is the cost vs risk worth an engineering fix ? I don't think so. The cost to retrofit lets say 500,000 vehicles (VW claimed a sale of 100k in the US alone in 2013) vs. a warranty extension and paying per failure just seems like the cost favors the warranty extension

Do I worry my pump might grenade ? Not really (knock on wood) but I feel the failures are enough and the catastrophic effects so great in cost that the right solution is for VWoA to continue what they seem to be doing as "goodwill" as a matter of policy in terms of a warranty.

The HPFP is the one part that scares me. Even a turbo failure is 1000 bucks from id parts and if mine failed I could eat it, but the hpfp is costly and the unknown scares me.
I pretty much feel the same way...........:)
 

truman

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Goodwill beyond a 10yr/150k warranty would be better approach. If the failure rate truly is insignificant, the cost should be minimal to their bottom line.
 

dan30thz28

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Has anyone taken the time to figure out how many replacements have been done on this website approximately multiply it by the amount of each repair? It has already hurt the bottom line and they don't want to hurt any further. So keeping a lid on it and repairing the failures they think is the best approach. After seeing about that girl Massachusetts, I'm really glad our car has exceeded 10,000 without a failure. Keeping our fingers crossed, and hoping someone (VW or the NTSHA) does something about the problem!
 
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TDI2000Zim

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Goodwill beyond a 10yr/150k warranty would be better approach. If the failure rate truly is insignificant, the cost should be minimal to their bottom line.
A SILENT Recall would go a long way in assuaging our VW fears.

When my 2000 Beetle TDi engine suddenly quit via the then badly designed fuel sender, after 18 months of pain and aggravation (and the dealer gladly milking me for $1000 with no solution), finding out by myself the "Designed for Canada" fuel sender in the internet solved my problem instantly (bought at IDP for only $20 at that point). That solution was a SILENT Recall that had been secretly doing the rounds in the internet for almost 10 years.

If Bosch came out with a truly reliable CP5.X that could be a retrofit, and low cost (less than $1500 to install), VW would save anywhere from $3500 to $8500 per car failure, and most of us who have Car Repair Insurance could in theory secretly fix our cars via our own expense, with VW incurring the expense for the victims of CP4.X Catastrophic Failure.

A Silent Recall may hit the Media fan, but a Class Action Law Suit will do the same PR damage, and even lots more.
 

lsnover

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A SILENT Recall would go a long way in assuaging our VW fears.

When my 2000 Beetle TDi engine suddenly quit via the then badly designed fuel sender, after 18 months of pain and aggravation (and the dealer gladly milking me for $1000 with no solution), finding out by myself the "Designed for Canada" fuel sender in the internet solved my problem instantly (bought at IDP for only $20 at that point). That solution was a SILENT Recall that had been secretly doing the rounds in the internet for almost 10 years.

If Bosch came out with a truly reliable CP5.X that could be a retrofit, and low cost (less than $1500 to install), VW would save anywhere from $3500 to $8500 per car failure, and most of us who have Car Repair Insurance could in theory secretly fix our cars via our own expense, with VW incurring the expense for the victims of CP4.X Catastrophic Failure.

A Silent Recall may hit the Media fan, but a Class Action Law Suit will do the same PR damage, and even lots more.

What part are you referring to "IDP" for Canada?
 

TDI2000Zim

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That was "1J0919183H" Fuel Sender.

IDParts ran out of it, and the ones that do sell the unit, do not have that low price anymore (Link #1, Link #2).
 

kjclow

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A Silent Recall may hit the Media fan, but a Class Action Law Suit will do the same PR damage, and even lots more.
A slient recall will also help those of us that own the CR diesels. A class action probably won't. It would make some law firm a lot of money and give VW a black eye. For the owners, we'll probably get a VW ballcap.
 

TDI2000Zim

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A slient recall will also help those of us that own the CR diesels. A class action probably won't. It would make some law firm a lot of money and give VW a black eye. For the owners, we'll probably get a VW ballcap.
I prefer a Silent Recall myself (lawsuits take decades).

But, if VW doesn't do a Silent Recall soon on the HPFP, old Ralph Nader will come from his mummy wraps and get a second career on the back of his old nemesis, VW.

Speaking of Silent Recalls, the Chevy Cruze TDi has a Bosch CP1H which has three stage high compression, versus our peanut brittle Bosch CP4.1 which has one stage compression. There is something to be said about Chevy's approach
...
 

South Coast Guy

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I prefer a Silent Recall myself (lawsuits take decades).

But, if VW doesn't do a Silent Recall soon on the HPFP, old Ralph Nader will come from his mummy wraps and get a second career on the back of his old nemesis, VW.

Speaking of Silent Recalls, the Chevy Cruze TDi has a Bosch CP1H which has three stage high compression, versus our peanut brittle Bosch CP4.1 which has one stage compression. There is something to be said about Chevy's approach
...
Let's assume that 5% of all pumps (more likely 1%) will fail sometime in the first 100,000 miles of use. That means 95% won't fail, but will be replaced anyway? Still works out cheaper to extend the warranty than a silent recall.
 

TDI Kovács

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I would rather have a warranty extension. In a recall you have to go in and have it done no matter if your pump would last 1 million miles. Under a warranty, if it happens, it'll be fixed. If it doesn't, at least you have that piece of mind.
 

jtdi15

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I would rather have a warranty extension. In a recall you have to go in and have it done no matter if your pump would last 1 million miles. Under a warranty, if it happens, it'll be fixed. If it doesn't, at least you have that piece of mind.
What if your pump failed on a trip though? I would like that recall knowing that I wouldn't have to worry anymore and be stranded somewhere then have to get your car back home. Or if the pump went up on the highway and may cause you to get into an accident. You never know... I see where you are coming from though!
 

MonsterTDI09

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What if your pump failed on a trip though? I would like that recall knowing that I wouldn't have to worry anymore and be stranded somewhere then have to get your car back home. Or if the pump went up on the highway and may cause you to get into an accident. You never know... I see where you are coming from though!
This could happen with any car.
 

jtdi15

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This could happen with any car.
I just have never been worried with any other car I have owned before when traveling long distances at this low of mileage. Knock on wood I have never had any major problems before when traveling. This just doesn't make me feel at ease knowing it could go at any given time. Having a recall I would just feel better about it.
 

kjclow

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Although, from the number of second and a few third failures, I'm not convinced that VW/Bosch have gotten everything figured out yet. I don't let the hpfp issue keep me from driving.
 

CopaMundial

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This could happen with any car.
I think jtdi15's point related to a hypothetical scenario.
As in a perfect world if we were given two choices...
(a) being a silent recall where we could stop by the dealer and have the pump swapped at our leisure
(b) being where we had warranty coverage that would pay in the event of a failure

... he was using the stuck on the side of the road scenario to demonstrate one reason why he would prefer a silent recall over an extended warranty.

Kind of academic though, since we're not going to get either one.
But this is the internet, and we need stuff to talk about. Otherwise we would be actually doing something with our time.
 

jtdi15

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I think jtdi15's point related to a hypothetical scenario.
As in a perfect world if we were given two choices...
(a) being a silent recall where we could stop by the dealer and have the pump swapped at our leisure
(b) being where we had warranty coverage that would pay in the event of a failure

... he was using the stuck on the side of the road scenario to demonstrate one reason why he would prefer a silent recall over an extended warranty.

Kind of academic though, since we're not going to get either one.
But this is the internet, and we need stuff to talk about. Otherwise we would be actually doing something with our time.
Bingo! Lol yeah I would just feel better knowing that something was done. I try not to stress about it and drive the car. Knowing that I could have a new pump that wouldn't cause any issues vs the one that could go now. I'm sure a lot of people would prefer that.
 

CopaMundial

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Lol yeah I would just feel better knowing that something was done. I try not to stress about it and drive the car. Knowing that I could have a new pump that wouldn't cause any issues vs the one that could go now. I'm sure a lot of people would prefer that.
Agreed in a perfect world where we actually had those choice yes... but really you get my point that we might as well be discussing whether we would rather be Trolls or Centaurs in some online roleplaying game, because neither one is a real life situation.
 
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