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Old April 6th, 2020, 12:24   #46
Daemon64
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So,

Just for fun and my belief in this technology. I wrote an email to the acting CEO of Audi, who then forwarded my info to a US rep, and here was the response I received:

"Good Afternoon,

Thank you for reaching out Mr. Abraham Schot via email. After reading your correspondence, Mr. Schot noted this to be in regards to a vehicle of United States specifications and asked our team to reply on his behalf.

It means a lot that you as an Audi owner and consumer are looking for ways to better the diesel application. When a submission of this nature is provided, we ensure the ideas are provided to the appropriate engineering department for review.

You are correct, no matter what, diesel owners understand this is efficient technology. But there is always room for improvement. At Audi we continually strive to update our vehicle portfolio, provide the latest and greatest technology and ensure our vehicles are engineered with safety in mind. We sincerely thank you for this information and have made sure the appropriate personnel have access to your suggestion.

We do hope that you, your family and friends are all safe and healthy during these trying times in our world. Thank you for your contact and we appreciate this opportunity to respond.

Warmest regards,

Meghan Nagel
Executive Case Specialist

Audi of America, Inc.
Customer Experience
3800 Hamlin Road
Auburn Hills, MI, 48326
United States of America"

... I'll take it I guess. I'm sure they already know about ducted, but who knows right? As my old boss used to say "The squeaky wheel gets the oil."
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Old April 6th, 2020, 15:57   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon64 View Post
Turbo,

Please do not mistake my statement as detracting from Tesla's success. They are the first new US car manufacturer to succeed in 1/2 century. So absolutely more power to them. My statement was more on their supply chain impact globally and US based. Current statistics show that pure EVs make up around 2% of global auto sales. Meaning 98% are ICE, Hybrid or etc...

Lets say by 2022 Tesla is effectively selling 1 Million Electric cars annually. That still means 64/65 Million cars annually are ICE or hybrid. That doesn't solve our problems. Its great for Tesla's bottom line sure. But environmentally its a drop in the bucket. All I am saying in relation to that is I am more interested in Advances to ICE / Hybrid cars right now since they make up such a large % of the market, they will have the biggest impact in the long term right now. Lets say globally we had a 20 - 50% reduction in ICE vehicles CO2 output, through advances in timing, valve, cams, etc... that are already coming out + hybridizing them, and that made up the majority of all the ICE cars sold since the other models would be phase out. Even at a 20% reduction across that board.... that would mean a if each car produced 300 g/mi average and 20% was the figure that would be a reduction of 60 g/mi * 64 million vs 1 million * 300 g/mi reduction ---- 3,840,000,000 less g vs 300,000,000g.... Hell even a modest 5% reduction across the ICE vehicles would be a 960,000,000g, and a 2% reduction would still be more impactful than all electrics sold that year @ 384,000,000g reduction and all of that assumes 0 g/mi for electrics, which we know that based on energy mix they do infact pollute some... I am heavily weighting in Electrics favor in these figures. Also keep in mind these are all g/mi figures. The impact is ridiculous.
I like your big picture data analysis Daemon64!

Regardless of what we say, the data analysis is showing that Tesla continues to trend towards more success with more models and so forth.

The trend I do not see in the data so far is that the sale of luxury Tesla vehicles is going to replace a substantial number of non-luxury ICE vehicles, in the next five years or so, that a) cost on the average $30,000 (+/- 10%) or less and b) have a range of 400 miles or more.
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Old April 6th, 2020, 16:14   #48
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Tikal,

Yes Tesla has made some impact. Keep in mind they're impact currently is not even what i showed in my numbers... those are projected numbers off of Tesla producing and selling 1 million EVs by end of 2022 which is their own numbers. Who knows how much Covid 19 is going to effect that. But lets assume Tesla doubles their numbers again in 3 years to 2025. That would be 2 million, out of the 65 million light duty vehicles sold world wide. Meaning 63 million would be ICE... but assuming Tesla is only 1% ( for round numbers ) of the current market ( more like 1.13% ), that means total EVs would be 4 million of the 65 million vehicles sold. Its only a drop in the bucket currently compared to minor efficiency gains in ICE vehicles. Which BTW are already on their way. Honda, Subaru, Toyota, VW, and etc... are showing new engines and tech on the way for 2021, 2022 w/ in some cases 10% or higher fuel efficieny gains, but due to hybrid and etc... are showing reducing emissions in some cases of 50%.

So its interesting times to watch the race so to speak on both sides.
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Old April 6th, 2020, 17:04   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon64 View Post
Tikal,

Yes Tesla has made some impact. Keep in mind they're impact currently is not even what i showed in my numbers... those are projected numbers off of Tesla producing and selling 1 million EVs by end of 2022 which is their own numbers. Who knows how much Covid 19 is going to effect that. But lets assume Tesla doubles their numbers again in 3 years to 2025. That would be 2 million, out of the 65 million light duty vehicles sold world wide. Meaning 63 million would be ICE... but assuming Tesla is only 1% ( for round numbers ) of the current market ( more like 1.13% ), that means total EVs would be 4 million of the 65 million vehicles sold. Its only a drop in the bucket currently compared to minor efficiency gains in ICE vehicles. Which BTW are already on their way. Honda, Subaru, Toyota, VW, and etc... are showing new engines and tech on the way for 2021, 2022 w/ in some cases 10% or higher fuel efficieny gains, but due to hybrid and etc... are showing reducing emissions in some cases of 50%.

So its interesting times to watch the race so to speak on both sides.
Thanks Daemon64. I will be curious to see the growth rate of non-Tesla EVs (current and projected). Do we have data that shows the success of Tesla will be contagious (no pun intended) to non-Tesla EV models?
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Old April 6th, 2020, 17:44   #50
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So wait- is Tesla is supposed to be the sole manufacturer of EV's in 2025? Tesla is just leading the charge , they won't be fighting the battle single handedly. VW is moving into EV's in a big way. Toyota just partnered up with BYD. I anticipate that in five years time the US will at least have caught up to where Europe is today in terms of EV market share.

https://cleantechnica-com.cdn.amppro...20%25251%2524s

Last edited by turbobrick240; April 6th, 2020 at 17:54.
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Old April 6th, 2020, 18:13   #51
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Well. Currently and roughly 2% of global auto sales are EV's. Tesla only makes up something like .37% of that, keep in mind that includes chinese electric makers and such. Which is why i extrapolated that the rest of the market is twice that of Tesla. There is no hard and fast numbers other than Tesla sold around 350,000 vehicles globally last year. So in my figures I am considering Tesla to grow more than the other manufacturers, and Tesla is projected 1million annual vehicles sold by 2022, So my estimated number was 2 mil Tesla, 2 mil other EVs. It still remains to be seen how much of that success will be diminishing returns based on market saturation and want for electric vehicles specifically. The numbers are so small now its easy to see trends, where a brick wall could be hit...

The other tough part for non-Tesla EV's is that in many places the charging network is basically **** ( here in new england ). There are very few DC Fast chargers, and in some states very few level 2. If there can be a comprehensive roll out it will be better. But that remains to be seen as well.

As a side note all of the European market share of electric vehicle numbers for pure EV's is around 2.1 - 2.2% in all sources. Many of the sources are giving misleading info like 9.6% market share, when you look into the data 7.5% of that was PHEV. Which is kind of what I've been saying all along. I think what will happen is if you can get PHEV around 40 miles they will sell like hotcakes, and basically negate the market for pure EVs. People will do all of their commuting on 100% electric, but have the freedom to go long distance w/o long recharge times to them. I see the market pushing hard for PHEV. With a good uptake for pure electrics as well.

Last edited by Daemon64; April 6th, 2020 at 18:23.
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Old April 6th, 2020, 18:28   #52
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Lastly,

Let's try to get back on topic. If you want to have a discussion on EV vs MHEV vs PHEV vs diesel vs gas... start another discussion. This topic is about ducted fuel injection in diesel vehicles....
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Old April 6th, 2020, 20:30   #53
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^^Agree.

Moved the discussion to here: http://forums.tdiclub.com/newreply.p...reply&t=448191

Last edited by tikal; April 6th, 2020 at 20:37. Reason: Moving the discussion to a more relevant sub-forum
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Old April 6th, 2020, 20:37   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon64 View Post

Many of the sources are giving misleading info like 9.6% market share, when you look into the data 7.5% of that was PHEV. Which is kind of what I've been saying all along. I think what will happen is if you can get PHEV around 40 miles they will sell like hotcakes, and basically negate the market for pure EVs. People will do all of their commuting on 100% electric, but have the freedom to go long distance w/o long recharge times to them. I see the market pushing hard for PHEV. With a good uptake for pure electrics as well.
I think you must be looking at some old data. In my previous link the March 2020 EV marketshare in the UK shows BEV's outnumbering PHEV's nearly 2:1. In this link of March 2020 marketshare in Germany the ratio is roughly 1:1. https://cleantechnica-com.cdn.amppro...a-model-3-1%2F

PHEV's are great. After living with one for a year or two most owners are ready to go full BEV.
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Old April 7th, 2020, 05:08   #55
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Turbo - I have responded in the thread tikal moved to.
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Old April 7th, 2020, 05:53   #56
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Originally Posted by turbobrick240 View Post
PHEV's are great. After living with one for a year or two most owners are ready to go full BEV.
That's my situation. My PHEV gives a taste of EV driving, but it doesn't have either the power or the range of a BEV. The upcoming RAV4 Prime PHEV will be closer to a full EV, as it will have a heat pump and about 40 miles of EV range, along with a very powerful (for a PHEV) EV motor. It won't need the ICE to climb hills like mine does.

But for me, the VW ID.4 will likely be my next car when my lease is up. The size of a Jetta with the interior space of the Passat, 300 miles of range, and based on everything shown so far it will be an attractive car.
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Old April 7th, 2020, 10:34   #57
Daemon64
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Reposting to Get back on topic:

So,

Just for fun and my belief in this technology. I wrote an email to the acting CEO of Audi, who then forwarded my info to a US rep, and here was the response I received:

"Good Afternoon,

Thank you for reaching out Mr. Abraham Schot via email. After reading your correspondence, Mr. Schot noted this to be in regards to a vehicle of United States specifications and asked our team to reply on his behalf.

It means a lot that you as an Audi owner and consumer are looking for ways to better the diesel application. When a submission of this nature is provided, we ensure the ideas are provided to the appropriate engineering department for review.

You are correct, no matter what, diesel owners understand this is efficient technology. But there is always room for improvement. At Audi we continually strive to update our vehicle portfolio, provide the latest and greatest technology and ensure our vehicles are engineered with safety in mind. We sincerely thank you for this information and have made sure the appropriate personnel have access to your suggestion.

We do hope that you, your family and friends are all safe and healthy during these trying times in our world. Thank you for your contact and we appreciate this opportunity to respond.

Warmest regards,

Meghan Nagel
Executive Case Specialist

Audi of America, Inc.
Customer Experience
3800 Hamlin Road
Auburn Hills, MI, 48326
United States of America"

... I'll take it I guess. I'm sure they already know about ducted, but who knows right? As my old boss used to say "The squeaky wheel gets the oil."
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Old April 7th, 2020, 11:03   #58
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That was a very polite response from Audi. That's worth something. But the cynic in me says they probably filed the correspondence in the same folder as my childhood wish lists to Santa. At least somebody gave it a glance over.
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