Why all these big vehicles?

Hwycruiser · Mar 8, 2019

cleaver · Mar 8, 2019

Powder Hound said:
Americans enjoy:

1) "Low" tax rates
2) Sufficient material wealth
3) Easy credit
4) Envy, or at least a desire to keep up with the neighbors

Other countries enjoy:
1) Sky-<bleep>ing-high tax rates
2) Somewhat less material wealth
3) Stickier credit processes
4) Crab mentality*
5) Suffocating group-think

Americans like large behemoth cars and trucks due to being human. Other places don't have them not because they don't want them, but several factors combine to make it much more difficult.

And let's not forget the neighborhood's envy. I knew a woman who was working as a contractor for a bank in Switzerland. Because she wore more than one outfit to work in a week, she was accused of "conspicuous consumption." I think if someone told me something like that I'd tell them to put it on a mop handle and sit on it until the whole handle disappeared up their anus.

Other people in other places would love large American vehicles. Because they can't, they stick their noses in the air and mutter pejorative invectives in our direction. Here, my neighbors might ask me why I still drive a 20 year old car, but instead they comment on how great the car looks for its age. (Well, that was before the ghetto fender I had to install.)

Anyway, the end of the story is that America is the envy of the world. Even the naysayers would come here in a heartbeat if only they could.

Cheers,

PH

* The crab mentality comes into focus if you've ever been crabbing without a crab specific trap and a very deep bucket. If you catch one crab, you need a lid on the bucket. But once you catch the second crab, you no longer need a lid. The crabs lock each other up and no one gets out of the bucket.

The world does not revolve around America and if you talked to any first world country residents you would find out that no one really wants to be like America or live in America - we are all more than happy to stay in our awesome countries.

Dealerships/manufacturers sell the vehicles that people want. If people want small cars the dealers will sell small cars. Its not the other way around. Fuel cost is a factor in size of vehicle sales. I am human, I like big, I am not a tree hugger, but I won't buy a huge truck just to be cool. If you don't need a truck, why buy one? The only reason I can think of is that you are too insecure and want to look like your neighbours. If you need a truck then buy one, you NEED it.

Lightflyer1 · Mar 8, 2019

Austin City Council. Now that is funny!

GoFaster · Mar 8, 2019

cleaver said:
The world does not revolve around America and if you talked to any first world country residents you would find out that no one really wants to be like America or live in America - we are all more than happy to stay in our awesome countries.

There are certain things that the rest of the developed world generally does better than the USA does. Citizens of the rest of the developed world can easily think of such things. Some Americans might be able to think of some. Others might realize it but not be willing to admit it. Others will have no clue.

I have no particular desire to live in the Excited States of Hysteria (a university prof of mine used that phrase a few decades ago!).

KITEWAGON · Mar 8, 2019

IndigoBlueWagon said:
I stand my my prediction that electric vehicle sales have peaked. Most of the early adopters and people whose vehicle needs are favorable to the limits of an electric vehicle have gotten their cars. Cheap fuel and disappearing tax credits are making electric an uneconomical choice. People who care about the environment like to skew the data to make electrics look more environmentally friendly than they are, but in the long run most consumers don't make buying decisions based on the environment. That's pretty clear. If they did a lot more people would drive cars instead of trucks and SUVs.

Peaked? In total annual sales volume? I don't think so. I agree that people won't choose them based on the environment. But they'll buy them because they are fashionable. And some will buy them for performance. I'm not a big EV fanboy but the specs on them are pretty absurd. We have a few Leaf's (Leaves?) where I work and they are way quicker than I would have guessed.

Powder Hound · Mar 8, 2019

KITEWAGON said:
Peaked? In total annual sales volume? I don't think so...

I tend to agree with Peter if not in actual numbers, but most likely in market penetration. To change that would require some supernatural physics in battery charge density and/or ridiculous rates of subsidy for them.

Yes, meddling in the marketplace by government fiat. It's the collectivist way!

Cheers,

PH

Powder Hound · Mar 8, 2019

GoFaster said:
...
I have no particular desire to live in the Excited States of Hysteria ...

Oh, thank you! Thank you!!

Cheers,

PH

Lightflyer1 · Mar 8, 2019

GoFaster said:
There are certain things that the rest of the developed world generally does better than the USA does. Citizens of the rest of the developed world can easily think of such things. Some Americans might be able to think of some. Others might realize it but not be willing to admit it. Others will have no clue.
I have no particular desire to live in the Excited States of Hysteria (a university prof of mine used that phrase a few decades ago!).

There are those here in the USA who share your view in reverse. I have lived/worked/visited many places around the world. Russia, India, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Europe, Mexico, Canada, Panama, Caribbean, and a few places in South America. They all have their good points and bad points just like the US does. There are places in the US I would not live in and other countries I would not live in. But don't fool yourself, there are many, many people all over the world trying to get here from all walks of life, for many different reasons. Your professor sounds very unprofessional and biased for a teacher. From my travel and living experiences around the world I have found that people themselves aren't really all that different. They just want to live and be able to make their way in the world.

turbobrick240 · Mar 8, 2019

Powder Hound said:
I tend to agree with Peter if not in actual numbers, but most likely in market penetration. To change that would require some supernatural physics in battery charge density and/or ridiculous rates of subsidy for them.

I'm not sure how one would determine "peak sales" other than with actual numbers. I can sympathize with folks who derive their livelihoods from ICEVs, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation. The transition should be gradual enough that those folks will have plenty of time to adapt.

Here's a look at the estimated monthly sales figures for the U.S.:

https://insideevs.com/february-2019-u-s-plug-in-ev-sales-report-card/

IndigoBlueWagon · Mar 8, 2019

Those data are interesting. Sales fell month over month on all electrics (not counting "Plug ins" which also have ICE) but the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model X. And some of those numbers are surprising, like the Jaguar. Brand new model but sales are falling in February over January? I stand by my opinion that sales have peaked. That chart shows a total of 9,749 electric (no hybrid) cars sold in February 2019. Compare that to 39,500 Ram pickups sold in February, or 10,000 Honda Pilots.

Many pundits are saying that Tesla's launch of the money-losing $35,000 Model 3, which caused a significant fall in Tesla's stock price, along with the accelerated launch of a new model (predicted to be a CUV or SUV) is an attempt to stem falling sales. Musk acknowledges that no production in China prevents them from making money there. And true to form, he's introducing the new model next week when they haven't even chosen an assembly site. Any guesses when that vehicle will start production?

Those issues aside, I don't see a wholesale shift to electric happening. Industry attempts at electrics have been happening since the dawn of the automotive age (watch Jay Leno's video of the Baker). They come and go, usually tied to a fuel crisis. Now we don't have a fuel crisis, and none on the horizon.

turbobrick240 · Mar 8, 2019

A lot of those pundits seem to have an agenda. When there was no $35k Model 3, they were crying about how Tesla wasn't keeping their promise. And that there never would be a $35k Model 3. Now that it has arrived, they are crying about how it spells doom for the company. They try their hardest to spin any and all news about the company as bad news. There's no reason to think the $35k car is a money loser. I'd be surprised if it costs more than $30k to produce. The Model Y is going to be built at the gigafactory in Nevada. It will probably also be built at the factory in China eventually. It's pretty amazing how quickly that property is getting developed. The Chinese don't mess around.

When looking at the sales figures, you have to compare year over year. Sales are always weak in Jan. And Feb. There will be some impact from the reduced tax credit and pent up demand being met, as well as any downturn in the economy, but I still think the peak sales for EVs(however you classify them) is far from here yet.

IndigoBlueWagon · Mar 8, 2019

Here's what Elon Musk said about the $35,000 Model 3 at the launch: "It is excruciatingly difficult to make this car for $35,000 and still be financially sustainable," he said. He said it will be at least another two to three years before Tesla can produce a cheaper car.

Who knows if they're making money or not.

turbobrick240 · Mar 8, 2019

They don't have the cash cows like F150 that legacy auto has. They wouldn't sell any vehicle at a loss because they just couldn't afford to. No compliance cars from Tesla. That's not to say that the profit margins on the higher spec models aren't much higher. Which is why they've been concentrating on producing and selling those.

iamatt · Mar 8, 2019

Powder Hound said:
Americans enjoy:

1) "Low" tax rates

2) Sufficient material wealth

3) Easy credit

4) Envy, or at least a desire to keep up with the neighbors

Other countries enjoy:

1) Sky-<bleep>ing-high tax rates

2) Somewhat less material wealth

3) Stickier credit processes

4) Crab mentality*

5) Suffocating group-think

Americans like large behemoth cars and trucks due to being human. Other places don't have them not because they don't want them, but several factors combine to make it much more difficult.

And let's not forget the neighborhood's envy. I knew a woman who was working as a contractor for a bank in Switzerland. Because she wore more than one outfit to work in a week, she was accused of "conspicuous consumption." I think if someone told me something like that I'd tell them to put it on a mop handle and sit on it until the whole handle disappeared up their anus.

Other people in other places would love large American vehicles. Because they can't, they stick their noses in the air and mutter pejorative invectives in our direction. Here, my neighbors might ask me why I still drive a 20 year old car, but instead they comment on how great the car looks for its age. (Well, that was before the ghetto fender I had to install.)

Anyway, the end of the story is that America is the envy of the world. Even the naysayers would come here in a heartbeat if only they could.

Cheers,

PH

* The crab mentality comes into focus if you've ever been crabbing without a crab specific trap and a very deep bucket. If you catch one crab, you need a lid on the bucket. But once you catch the second crab, you no longer need a lid. The crabs lock each other up and no one gets out of the bucket.

Wow I thought you were going down the AOC, aka Occasional Cortex rabbithole in the beginning of the post but you saved it.

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GoFaster · Mar 9, 2019

There is no way that market share of EVs has peaked. In my view the transition to EV is inevitable ... but it's going to take a while. The rest of the auto industry is going to have products available with much broader market interest over the next few years, and recharging infrastructure will continue to develop.

It is quite likely, on the other hand, that Tesla has run out of early-adopters.

jason_ · Mar 9, 2019

It's rare people purchase a truck to use it as a truck....

My modified I bought used for $250 91 gmc 3500.srw straight cab, that had nothing besides a body and frame... Now is a nv4500 w pto and hydraulic pump, and serves me well.

The 1500 I had I snapped a rear axle twice. I guess 4000# in the box was too much for a semi floater and pot holes.

I've mechanically worn out 2 350 sheeties under that stock TBI hauling thousands of pounds of iron, lumber, equipment, etc etc.

Now it's got a mocked up 7.3 IDI with a home made bell housing because I'm just not a fan the zf5..... And seems easier to keep the np241...I, have 4 more spares I thought about getting rid of until I broke a case.

I think it passes emissions? Vin says it's a 454 with auto.... I kept the auto steering column.

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greenskeeper · Mar 10, 2019

IndigoBlueWagon said:
Read a little about crumple zones and our body's inability to handle sudden deceleration and you might have a different opinion. Trucks may suffer less damage in a crash, but the drivers' bodies can suffer more. I'd be happy to sacrifice my car to save my life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9rNLnRczZg

Glad I'm in an F250.

IndigoBlueWagon · Mar 10, 2019

Looked at another way, the F250 creates a hazard for drivers in cars.

vwdsmguy · Mar 10, 2019

big is better??

If US mfgs. want to sell big vehicles and people want them why not make them as gas-electric hybrids, then you could have the best of both worlds by not sucking up so much gas and sitting higher above cars. Is some of this big thing about looking down at cars?

Windjammer · Mar 10, 2019

IndigoBlueWagon said:
Looked at another way, the F250 creates a hazard for drivers in cars.

You forgot to put the winking emoji on the end of your post. Someone might think you're being serious.

IndigoBlueWagon · Mar 10, 2019

Windjammer said:
You forgot to put the winking emoji on the end of your post. Someone might think you're being serious.

Good point. I've always driven small cars (my first car was an Austin Healey Sprite) so I'm pretty good at driving defensively. My dad taught me that you should always look for an exit route when driving in traffic. And I find that, contrary to what most people do, you can often accelerate away from trouble. The increase in large vehicles on the road makes this more challenging: I prefer to look two cars ahead for brake lights, for example, but I can't do that if the car in front of me is a Suburban or F150. And what's in the next lane? Another SUV! Good news is I've never been in a major accident. Yet. It's like what motorcycle riders say, it's not if you'll dump a bike, it's when. Unfortunately I have done that.

Lightflyer1 · Mar 10, 2019

Some of it is being able to see over other cars. Being able to see traffic ahead of the cars in front of you is an advantage, if you use it. I prefer the seating position of a truck as it is more like a chair. I have a bad back and sitting in small cars with my legs out in front of me instead of down like in a truck can be painful at times. When I had my diesel Excursion that was the most comfortable and roomy traveling vehicle I have driven. Never used as a primary vehicle though. Tow vehicle for my antique car trailer and traveling and hauling.

When driving for UPS for years I was taught the only space you could control was in front of you. Always leave room for an out. Be aware of everything on all sides of you.

iamatt · Mar 10, 2019

IndigoBlueWagon said:
Looked at another way, the F250 creates a hazard for drivers in cars.

Not in Texas. Land of big vehicles here. King ranch edition.

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turbobrick240 · Mar 10, 2019

My cousin drives a NA miata in Texas. She has been sideswiped by a jacked up pickup changing into her lane. The guy didn't even see her.

iamatt · Mar 10, 2019

turbobrick240 said:
My cousin drives a NA miata in Texas. She has been sideswiped by a jacked up pickup changing into her lane. The guy didn't even see her.

Well Miata is a.coffin on wheels lol

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GoFaster · Mar 10, 2019

vwdsmguy said:
If US mfgs. want to sell big vehicles and people want them why not make them as gas-electric hybrids, then you could have the best of both worlds by not sucking up so much gas and sitting higher above cars. Is some of this big thing about looking down at cars?

It will come, in time. The problem is that there is very little overlap between the part of the population that buys big trucks and SUVs, and the part of the population that will pay extra up front cost in order to use less fuel. GM already tried and failed. Chrysler's current attempt is timid (mild hybrid) and they're not really selling it on its fuel saving benefits.

Ford has a full-electric F150 in the works. It remains to be seen how they will market this, but my guess is that it will be aimed at fleet buyers.

oilhammer · Mar 11, 2019

...and will likely end up just like the electric Ranger.

turbobrick240 · Mar 11, 2019

I was curious about the EV Ranger and read the wiki entry. It initially came with carbon fiber leaf springs....weird.

oilhammer · Mar 11, 2019

They use a completely different rear suspension too. It looks similar to the rear suspension and drive axles that the AWD ChryCo and early GM U-vans minivans used. The Pontiac Aztec used a version, too. My Kubota RTV has this setup.

turbobrick240 · Mar 11, 2019

That's a funky semi-independent arrangement. With 2000 lbs of lead acid batteries, the ford engineers must have been desperate to shed weight anywhere they could- hence the carbon fiber leaf springs.

Why all these big vehicles?

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