Any speculation on discounts on dealer inventory when fixed?

k1xv said:

Discounts on dealer inventory on fixed cars? Well, it will be like this. A few enthusiasts who have to have one will rush in and buy one that meets their preference, and the prices on those will be relatively high. Then, the rest of the run of the mill cars with nothing special, i.e., not high trim, not standard shift, etc. will sit on the lot a while. And a while longer. And longer yet. And prices will fall accordingly.

Its like pricing of matzoh crackers at Passover. Initially, demand is strong as the holiday approaches and everyone stocks up. But if you can wait until the holiday is over, then prices fall precipitously for the post holiday clearance sale.

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Since past TDI BUYER'S will be at dealers with $$$ for many months, and no "new" TDI's are coming...I bet many dealers will sit and be firm on $$ for a couple months.
No need to rush with a fire sale...many have ALREADY paid PREMIUM $$$ to get a TDI they can keep.
Lets face it $5000 off when the fix check was $5000 is zero discount off sticker...
New I got a better deal by more than that...and still got the $5000.

A piece of this puzzle will be how VW (corporate) prices these cars to the dealerships.

The dealership can't just have them -- so right off the bat, there's going to be a value assigned to them.

If VW prices them high, following current blue book values, I'd be cautious as a dealer, not knowing where the market is going to settle.

If VW prices them too low, allowing dealers the flexibility to profit nicely if the cars are a hot commodity, but presenting a low risk if they land flat, then some dealers will be willing to negotiate and well gradually see book values return to a more realistic level.

k1xv said:

A few enthusiasts who have to have one will rush in and buy one that meets their preference, and the prices on those will be relatively high. Then, the rest of the run of the mill cars with nothing special, i.e., not high trim, not standard shift, etc. will sit on the lot a while. And a while longer. And longer yet. And prices will fall accordingly.

Its like pricing of matzoh crackers at Passover. Initially, demand is strong as the holiday approaches and everyone stocks up. But if you can wait until the holiday is over, then prices fall precipitously for the post holiday clearance sale.

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Maybe that might be true in some remote midwest town. But not in California. My dealer in Walnut Creek sold 39 TDIs the first 2 weeks and all the manuals were gone in the first few days.

As of last week he had 1 TDI left and it was a highly optioned SEL DSG $33k MSRP in the worst color BLACK. So yeah I think you are partially right if you want to wait you will get stuck with a high MSRP crappy color (off topic but who the HELL buys black cars unless you are an undertaker?).

Ventura and Santa Maria VW have a few but want $5k OVER MSRP. They'll get it too.. maybe not the full $5k but they'll get $2-3k over.

These cars are too good and when word gets out how good they are and that they are finally being released by the EPA I would expect demand to GROW. Most people still have no idea what a TDI is or how the Mk7 drives.

volksjaeger said:

(off topic but who the HELL buys black cars unless you are an undertaker?).

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We picked up two black ones, maybe that means they cancel each other out?

volksjaeger said:

Maybe that might be true in some remote midwest town. But not in California. My dealer in Walnut Creek sold 39 TDIs the first 2 weeks and all the manuals were gone in the first few days.

As of last week he had 1 TDI left and it was a highly optioned SEL DSG $33k MSRP in the worst color BLACK. So yeah I think you are partially right if you want to wait you will get stuck with a high MSRP crappy color (off topic but who the HELL buys black cars unless you are an undertaker?).
.

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Once you go black.... Seriously though, I'm glad not everybody wants to snatch up the black cars first. We can't all be super cool ninjas!

If I had a black TDI I would spend more on car washes than diesel. Silver cars are boring but always look pretty clean.

volksjaeger said:

Most people still have no idea what a TDI is or how the Mk7 drives.

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People paying MSRP or higher are idiots. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American consumer.

The 1.8 TSI is a valid replacement for a TDI for 90% of all TDI owners.
Sorry it won't be "quirky" enough for most of them, though.

It has great torque, and respectable mpg, all while burning cheaper 87 gas and requiring less maintenance (no fuel filters or timing belt, and no DSG service if you go auto).

My 2016 GSW 5MT TSI has averaged 37+ mpg over the 21k miles I've driven it.
I bought it brand new, for $18,425. Not a 2-3 year old left-over. It has cloth seats and MIBII with Android Auto, which you cannot get in a MK7 TDI.

I love the thought of a 50mpg wagon, but every time I ran the numbers, they never worked out to make a TDI have a positive ROI. And that was before dieselgate.
Now, after, you can choose between a cheaper TSI (that is also faster, if anyone cares - they seem to as they always tout the torque - ha! see below) that is a brand new model year, or an old, left-over TDI that still costs more.

I don't get it. I can only chalk it up to fanaticism. Logically the TDI doesn't work for me (the only cop-out to "having" to buy a TDI, is if you "need" a loaded SE/SEL and "need" a stick shift - can't do that with a VW gasser in the US).

The TSI is a perfectly valid replacement, especially in the Golf MK7 format.

Except that the driving dynamics and peak torque in low engine RPM are totally different in the TDI.

MBQ said:

Except that the driving dynamics and peak torque in low engine RPM are totally different in the TDI.

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Right.

Like the 200 lb ft of torque at 1600 rpm vs 236 at 1750 (TDI)?
I wouldn't call that totally different.

surfstar said:

I don't get it.

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No, you don't. But that's OK. Those of us who want a diesel, want a diesel. Logic doesn't necessarily apply.

I've never calculated cost per mile for a vehicle before purchase. I think about overall cost of ownership and whether or not I want to take it on, but that's about as detailed as I get. And I think a lot of people do less than that.

I wanted the newer head unit and a cloth interior on my GSW, which is why I was waiting for the '16 TDI that never arrived. But a 1.8T is not an option for me. If the '15s weren't released I would have continued to drive my older TDIs. In fact, I am anyway: I don't expect the '15 to get a lot of use until I need it.

surfstar said:

Like the 200 lb ft of torque at 1600 rpm vs 236 at 1750 (TDI)? I wouldn't call that totally different.

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Eighteen percent more FT LBs is, IMO, considerable. I do not "horse" my car often, but it's there the few times I needed to punched it. My DSG complements the simplicity.

surfstar said:

Right.

Like the 200 lb ft of torque at 1600 rpm vs 236 at 1750 (TDI)?
I wouldn't call that totally different.

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Before I bought my 15 GSW TDI I test drove a 2017 1.8 Golf S manual. I thought that was what I wanted... Then I drove the TDI. Maybe its the combination with the DSG, but in my opinion there is a big difference between the cars. Hence the reason I bought the TDI.
It was almost identical in price to the Golf S. (One was $200 more, can't remember which) It might technically be two years older, but the TDI is the better car.

I'm sure the TSI is a nice car, but like others have said, it's no TDI. Yes, the gassers have been catching up, but they have their share of quirks as well. Really, the only thing that I would like in my TDI which I couldn't get is the newer head unit with Car Play. I hate cloth seats. You also have to downgrade to a 5 speed manual or slushbox auto transmision, both inferior to the ones in the TDI.

So, for around the same price I got a longer lasting TDI engine with better fuel economy, better transmission and much longer warranty. I had to give up Car Play and will have slightly higher maintenance costs. I'm good with that.

arcaidy said:

Before I bought my 15 GSW TDI I test drove a 2017 1.8 Golf S manual. I thought that was what I wanted... Then I drove the TDI. Maybe its the combination with the DSG, but in my opinion there is a big difference between the cars. Hence the reason I bought the TDI.


It was almost identical in price to the Golf S. (One was $200 more, can't remember which)

It might technically be two years older, but the TDI is the better car.

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My preference is to have the least amount of depreciation as a first priority.

Starting with what you pay up front.

It was crazy to shop a 2015 Auto Golf (S) TDi at a $4,000 discount vs a 2015 Golf (S) Auto TSI at a $2,000 discount.

Then one can check side by side NADA and KBB currant values, for the 2012 - 2013 - 2014 TSI vs TDi

KBB is consistently > $6,000 in favor of TDI(s) ~~ More market crazy X 10

I did use the average miles I drive. ~~ low.

VWMark said:

So, for around the same price I got a longer lasting TDI engine with better fuel economy, better transmission and much longer warranty.

I had to give up Car Play and will have slightly higher maintenance costs. I'm good with that.

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My warranty will expire July 15, 2026 ~~ and is transferable to any new owners.

Hence the car will command a stronger resale value, in the next decade

Warranty alone doesn't determine resale value. Example, Hyundai. 10 year/100K mile warranty and values still drop like a rock.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

Warranty alone doesn't determine resale value. Example, Hyundai. 10 year/100K mile warranty and values still drop like a rock.

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You are so correct regarding Hyundai. -- IMO, that car is bad to the bone.

My opinion is based on the past and currant NADA & KBB full bore retail numbers.

2015vwgolfdiesel said:

My warranty will expire July 15, 2026 ~~ and is transferable to any new owners.
Hence the car will command a stronger resale value, in the next decade

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If your warranty goes until 2026 you purchased the extended warranty, which added to the price. I'm talking standard warranty. The TDIs are coming with a transferable 162,000 mile/11 year warranty on anything related to the emission systems, and that includes a lot of stuff. Honestly, I really don't care about resale value on this car, it's wasn't part of the decision making process.

Of course, nobody has any idea what the resale value of these TDI's will be in 10 years, but I have a feeling it will be a decent bit higher that a TSI.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

No, you don't. But that's OK. Those of us who want a diesel, want a diesel. Logic doesn't necessarily apply.
I've never calculated cost per mile for a vehicle before purchase. I think about overall cost of ownership and whether or not I want to take it on, but that's about as detailed as I get. And I think a lot of people do less than that.

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I love this take, thank you. It's just that simple. Also, I don't look at it from a fuel cost perspective, but from a "using less oil" angle.

Once that warranty is up though, these unicorn 1 year only oddball cars will be worth nothing

peterdaniel said:

Once that warranty is up though, these unicorn 1 year only oddball cars will be worth nothing

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All TDIs are "oddball" cars. And they're not worth nothing. Warranty aside I'd bet these cars will have higher values than their gasoline counterparts throughout their lives, especially as they get older. Look at the value of ALH TDIs compared to 2.slow or 1.8T MKIV cars as an example.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

All TDIs are "oddball" cars. And they're not worth nothing. Warranty aside I'd bet these cars will have higher values than their gasoline counterparts throughout their lives, especially as they get older. Look at the value of ALH TDIs compared to 2.slow or 1.8T MKIV cars as an example.

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As much as I love TDIs, comparing the "CR family" to the ALH, isn't quite and even comparison for future resale value.

I personally feel the "issues" of the CR family be it emission components/HPFP give the platform a black eye. I could be wrong, but I'm also not going to hold my breath and hope to get X% more because its a diesel.

But who really cares, we didn't buy the car for resale value, and quite frankly I don't think anyone who buys one should be thinking of resale value, if so go buy a Wrangler.

740GLE said:

But who really cares, we didn't buy the car for resale value, and quite frankly I don't think anyone who buys one should be thinking of resale value, if so go buy a Wrangler.

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I agree on this point. It's best to buy a TDI without resale in mind. And, please, please, don't make me drive a Jeep.

Honestly, in ten years the development of EV's and related infrastructure could affect the resale of any ICE car.

I'm planning on getting ten years out of my TDI and anything beyond that is gravy. But I'm in Ontario where the salt just destroys cars.

Sent from my XT1097 using Tapatalk

The Tortoise said:

.... snip....

I'm planning on getting ten years out of my TDI and anything beyond that is gravy. But I'm in Ontario where the salt just destroys cars.

Sent from my XT1097 using Tapatalk

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.... and infrastructure

IndigoBlueWagon said:

I agree on this point. It's best to buy a TDI without resale in mind. .... snip.....

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Agreeing to disagree.

Bought mine with great(er) resale in mind ~~ and the higher discount off of MSRP (compared to the equal gas model), back in 2015

I've personally never bought a car with resale in mind. While the kids were still in school, we averaged about 20k miles on each car. Generally, a five year old car with over 100K miles does not have good resale. We typically ran the cars until there was no value in them and then took $500 or so for the trade in value in the next victim. I remember when we bought the beetle in 2000. The dealer offered us a $1000 discount to not take our trade.

kjclow said:

I've personally never bought a car with resale in mind. While the kids were still in school, we averaged about 20k miles on each car.

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While we were in a small business, years ago, the vans, pick-ups, sedans were just milers, with less concern on overall cost. 25K - 35K miles per year.

Tax mileage depreciation tables were good to small Shoppe owners back then, even at the rate when it was only $.16 per mile

Generally, a five year old car with over 100K miles does not have good resale. We typically ran the cars until there was no value in them and then took $500 or so for the trade in value in the next victim.

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We got 31.5 % "cash back" for our clean 13.5 year old Camry, with 107,000 miles.

I remember when we bought the beetle in 2000. The dealer offered us a $1000 discount to not take our trade.

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ROFLMAO --

kjclow said:

I remember when we bought the beetle in 2000. The dealer offered us a $1000 discount to not take our trade.

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Ouch. That hurts.

EVs won't affect TDI resale values. At the risk of saying something inflammatory, EV sales have already peaked.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

Ouch. That hurts.
EVs won't affect TDI resale values. At the risk of saying something inflammatory, EV sales have already peaked.

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Agree with the first sentence but the second one needs documentation.
More urban drivers + more available models = more future sales IMHO.