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General Automotive General automotive discussion. This is intended to be a discussion about other not VW and Diesel cars you may have or interested in.

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Old Yesterday, 11:09   #3931
GoFaster
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Originally Posted by nwdiver View Post
The EV1 and RAV4 should have been followed by other EV models. GM cost us >10 years of EV development.
High-performance lithium batteries of a scale sufficient to power a vehicle did not exist back then. It's only now that lithium batteries have been developed to a point where they can be used to power a motor vehicle in a manner competitive with combustion engines in some applications.

People will only buy new technology when it is demonstrably better than the old technology in their own day-to-day lives. Short-range electric cars did not sell back in the 1990s, and they still don't sell today.

Following up the EV1 at the time would have simply continued the commercial disaster that the EV1 already was, and that would have been a mistake.

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/h...-of-electrics/ (note; article was from 2013 ... and even this was near the beginning of lithium-based batteries for vehicle propulsion).

I am not convinced even today that there is enough supply of the various not-exactly-common materials that EVs need in fairly large quantities, in order for lithium-battery-and-PM-motor EVs to fully replace everything we've got.

Rome wasn't built in one day ... and it doesn't have to be.
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Old Yesterday, 11:41   #3932
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Originally Posted by GoFaster View Post
People will only buy new technology when it is demonstrably better than the old technology in their own day-to-day lives. Short-range electric cars did not sell back in the 1990s, and they still don't sell today.
The EV1 and LEAF have very similar specs. Same Range. Same Charging time. Nissan has sold ~250k LEAFs.

I would imagine that the Billions of dollars car manufactures are now pumping into Battery R&D is going to help accelerate things a bit. It would have been nice if they had started doing that in earnest ~15 years ago.

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Old Yesterday, 11:52   #3933
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Elon Musk and the EV1.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/59071716.cms
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Old Yesterday, 12:20   #3934
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When GM killed off the EV1, they had just bought a company doing great things with NiMH batteries. If they had gotten that tech into the EV1 (EV1.5? heh) the rage would have increased with weight going down, and the batteries would have lasted much longer.

I agree that it was a failure on GM's part to give up that 10 year advantage they had on every other maker.

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Old Yesterday, 12:31   #3935
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Originally Posted by nwdiver View Post
Fair enough. I'll be more specific. Every NON-COMPLIANCE EV. Every EV offered outside CA. The Volt and Bolt would not exist if not from the roadster.

Only Nissan showed interest in EVs. Toyota and VW showed open contempt for them on several occasions.



That could have been avoided if they kept developing the EV1. GMs financial troubles were exacerbated by a sales drop of low mpg cars when the price of oil surged.
Nonsense. Suburbans, Pickups, and Hummers is what made GM money those years, The EVs were a loss. If GM kept going with the EV1 they would have bankrupted even sooner.
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Old Yesterday, 12:39   #3936
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Nonsense. Suburbans, Pickups, and Hummers is what made GM money those years, The EVs were a loss. If GM kept going with the EV1 they would have bankrupted even sooner.
History disagrees.

'The U.S. automakers were more heavily affected by the crisis than their foreign counterparts, such as Toyota. Following the 2000s energy crisis, the U.S. automakers failed to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles as opposed to the high-profit sport utility vehicles that were popular in the late 1990s and early 2000s which led to excess inventory and undesirable product. Since the automotive crisis abated, all three American automakers have increased sales of vehicles and have posted a profit.'

I remember it well... the dodge dealership near my house was practically giving away trucks...
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Old Yesterday, 14:21   #3937
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Musk is working very hard to prevent humanity from destroying itself. He has revolutionized the space industry, and is revolutionizing the auto industry. Given some time and perspective, I think you'll come to appreciate his influence on society.
I do appreciate he has influence, but, put in perspective, the products he's selling (supposedly to prevent humanity from destroying itself) can only be afforded by the wealthy 1%.

VW brought us the "peoples" car. It was a small, fuel efficient car that a large portion of the population living in the industrialized world could afford. That was a revolution. In 1950, it was priced at $1,280. Adjusted for inflation, in today's dollars - it's a car that would only cost $12,290.

Using that example, if the Model 3 was a $15,000 car, we'd truly have a revolution on our hands. Instead, we simply have another car that only the wealthy can afford. It would have been nice to see Model 3's proliferate in Delhi just as they no doubt will in Newport Beach.

I know the answer coming is: "Wait, have faith, Elon will make it happen". Sorry guys, I have my doubts. Mining the world of it's copper & lithium seems to be a dubious way of saving the planet from ourselves.
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Old Yesterday, 14:48   #3938
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Originally Posted by Oilerlord View Post
VW brought us the "peoples" car. It was a small, fuel efficient car that a large portion of the population living in the industrialized world could afford. That was a revolution. In 1950, it was priced at $1,280. Adjusted for inflation, in today's dollars - it's a car that would only cost $12,290.

The type 1 was/is a truly fantastic car (despite its dark origins). Unfortunately, cheap economy cars just don't have the sex appeal they did at one time (at least in the wealthy western world). Musk is bright enough to know that he had to make EV's desirable first. Cheap can come a bit later.
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Old Yesterday, 15:33   #3939
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Originally Posted by turbobrick240 View Post
The type 1 was/is a truly fantastic car (despite its dark origins). Unfortunately, cheap economy cars just don't have the sex appeal they did at one time (at least in the wealthy western world). Musk is bright enough to know that he had to make EV's desirable first. Cheap can come a bit later.
For 99% of the driving population, cars don't have sex appeal at all and the owners don't care. They are merely for point A to point B transportation.
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Old Yesterday, 15:37   #3940
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oilerlord
I do appreciate he has influence, but, put in perspective, the products he's selling (supposedly to prevent humanity from destroying itself) can only be afforded by the wealthy 1%.

VW brought us the "peoples" car. It was a small, fuel efficient car that a large portion of the population living in the industrialized world could afford. That was a revolution. In 1950, it was priced at $1,280. Adjusted for inflation, in today's dollars - it's a car that would only cost $12,290.

Using that example, if the Model 3 was a $15,000 car, we'd truly have a revolution on our hands. Instead, we simply have another car that only the wealthy can afford. It would have been nice to see Model 3's proliferate in Delhi just as they no doubt will in Newport Beach.

I know the answer coming is: "Wait, have faith, Elon will make it happen". Sorry guys, I have my doubts. Mining the world of it's copper & lithium seems to be a dubious way of saving the planet from ourselves.
Model S and X can be afforded by more than 1% of the population. Assuming a sale price of $100,000, a family would need to make $200,000, which is more like 7% of U.S. households. Still the top tier, but not as exaggerated as your statistic of 1% would suggest.

Using the 20/4/10 rule of car affordability, a $35,000 Model 3 would be affordable to households making $72,000 and up. That's about 40% of U.S. households. A reasonably optioned $45,000 Model 3 would be affordable to households making $92,000 or more. That's about 30% of U.S. households.

And that's just new Tesla vehicles. Used vehicles will be available to people with lower incomes. In addition, many of the major auto makers are coming out with affordable EVs of their own - EVs with 200+ mile ranges, not the little city cars that you and I currently own. If they start at $25,000, that makes them affordable to households making $50,000 or more, or about 57% of U.S. households.

To put these numbers in perspective, a $15,000 base model car (Versa Note, Yaris, whatever) would require an annual household income of nearly $40,000. For the sake of discussion, let's round down to $35,000, which makes it affordable to 70% of U.S. households. More importantly, it means that 30% of U.S. households cannot reasonably afford to buy a new vehicle.

This is also looking about five years out. Beyond that, I expect that we'll see even less expensive electric vehicles. As GoFaster said, Rome wasn't built in a day.
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Old Yesterday, 16:17   #3941
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Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
For 99% of the driving population, cars don't have sex appeal at all and the owners don't care. They are merely for point A to point B transportation.

If that were true, we'd all be driving Toyota Corollas or Nissan Versas. I actually grew up in one of the rare households where utility and economy were the only real concern when buying a car. I can tell you the sex appeal of a Renault LeCar is pretty limited.
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Old Yesterday, 16:28   #3942
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The EV1 and LEAF have very similar specs. Same Range. Same Charging time. Nissan has sold ~250k LEAFs.
But not the same passenger space and cargo volume. The Leaf as it is (was) couldn't have been built with that passenger space, cargo volume, range, etc using 1990s battery technology. And the first-generation Leaf is a short-range niche-market turd that lacks thermal control of its batteries, and suffers as a result. 250,000 units over 7 years is about 35,000 per year ... that's not mass-market!

Pushing new technology into the market before the bugs are sufficiently out of it tends to taint public opinion for MUCH longer than it takes for the technology to actually get sorted out. Lots of people won't buy electric cars because they worry about how long the batteries will last. Guess where that worry comes from ...

On a related note, a buddy of mine just signed up for a 3 year lease on a Kia Soul EV, and he's going to bring it over to show me tomorrow.
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Old Yesterday, 16:30   #3943
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Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand:

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MONTREAL, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Canada's biggest province, Ontario, will introduce a new rebate program worth up to C$75,000 for buyers of electric trucks, in a move that could boost domestic purchases of models by Tesla Inc and rivals like China's BYD, a government spokesman said ahead of a Thursday announcement.

The program will offer buyers rebates of up to 60 percent of the incremental purchase cost of an electric truck, compared with an equivalent diesel vehicle, up to a cap of C$75,000 per vehicle, according to documents seen by Reuters...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ontar...160000328.html
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Old Yesterday, 16:36   #3944
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On a related note, a buddy of mine just signed up for a 3 year lease on a Kia Soul EV, and he's going to bring it over to show me tomorrow.
The Kia Soul EV is a pretty nice little vehicle. It doesn't go very far, but it's very comfortable for passengers, has great cargo space and drives really nicely. We were looking at them before we bought our 500e. I was particularly interested in the EV+ trim with heated and ventilated seats, heat pump, and more. Unfortunately, they were hard to come by and used prices were about double what we were interested in paying for a commuter car.

If they can double the range and get the price down a little bit, I think it'll be a very attractive vehicle.

I'm definitely interested in hearing what you think about it. Please follow up after you check it out.
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Old Yesterday, 18:32   #3945
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Pushing new technology into the market before the bugs are sufficiently out of it tends to taint public opinion for MUCH longer than it takes for the technology to actually get sorted out. Lots of people won't buy electric cars because they worry about how long the batteries will last. Guess where that worry comes from ...
Sounds a lot like a major automaker who rushed a diesel engine into production in the 1970's long before all its "issues" had been sorted out.

That RUSH to the latest, greatest fuel economy solution - gave DIESEL a VERY BAD reputation with consumers. And it did not matter that most of the engines problems were resolved by 1983. The damage was done for a generation!
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