Hmm... didn't help, wasn't warm enough for VCDS to check timing, and when I put it into reverse (to be able to pull the other car out) the engine immediately died. Neighbor helped me pull/push it out of the way, and in warm weather I'll look at it again. In 2012, during another big, though even colder, freeze, the timing belt tensioner came undone (largely because it was the wrong one, put in by previous owner). I trust the mechanic who fixed it put in the right one, but I don't trust that he used a torque wrench to tighten it down, because I did catch him tightening something else without a torque (he claimed his muscles could feel the right torque...).
Now when I popped the upper timing belt cover and push down, i can press the timing belt a few mm away from the idler pulley/roller on the top. I seem to recall the belt being tighter when I've checked it in the past. Looks like my Octavia is going to be out of service till things warm up in March here. :-( At least the wife's Alfa Romeo is working...