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Old December 18th, 2019, 07:13   #31
kjclow
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Originally Posted by Lightflyer1 View Post
That is why I thought VW might make a good partner in this due to all the stink over dieselgate and all. Being able to pull themselves out of the fire by partnering with SNL and cleaning up their emissions would give them a little better standing. Besides the billions of dollars they fined VW ought to go to some purpose like this instead of crushing cars. But I am just a consumer, what do I know?
However, VW is/was being forced to put their efforts into electric vehicles and infrastructure. I'm not saying that their diesel future is covered in soot, but the market for North America is fairly cloudy.
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Old December 18th, 2019, 07:45   #32
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Maybe not if this device cleans up like it says it does. It would make a great headline: US National Labs cleans up VW's environmental mess. Billions put to good use.
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Old December 20th, 2019, 07:47   #33
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Very few would care. It's not a scandal so at best it will make the front page below the fold. More likely on page 2.
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Old December 20th, 2019, 10:40   #34
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Maybe not if this device cleans up like it says it does. It would make a great headline: US National Labs cleans up VW's environmental mess. Billions put to good use.
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Very few would care. It's not a scandal so at best it will make the front page below the fold. More likely on page 2.
VW dropped diesels and is pushing forward with their apple iD vehicles.
The All electric plugin bunch took over. So it won't make the news.

However bringing CAT, Cummins, International, MAC, Detroit, and others to a much lower emissions level and better fuel economy would make front page news.

Then seeing it adapted and adopted by Cummins, Duramax and VM Motori to meet the road light trucks would be a second win.
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Old April 2nd, 2020, 13:13   #35
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It appears there is a massive re-adoption going on in Europe. Many of the sport versions that only had gas engines before are switched to the 3.0 tdi.... interesting... hoped ducted becomes a thing...
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Old April 2nd, 2020, 19:52   #36
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Yeah. Its become increasingly clear that except for Tesla, pretty much all auto manufacturers are blowing electric hot air with no real commitment. Ill wager on more hybridization of more platforms.
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Old April 3rd, 2020, 05:28   #37
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100% Agree. I think massive amounts of hybrids are coming. Especially PHEV. US Q5 PHEV, has a co2 emissions of 165 g/mi according to the fueleconomy.gov, and the regular version is 364 g/mi. It has a supposed 20mile all electric range.

The euro SQ5 TDI MHEV gets pretty close to that, and thats a diesel performance version.

Interesting is that g/mi brings them pretty close to a full electric on our current electric grid mix. ( Some places are cleaner than others ofcourse ).
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Old April 3rd, 2020, 06:22   #38
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As a current PHEV driver, I don't feel 20 miles range is enough. My Niro is rated at 26 miles (24 with HVAC on), and I actually get close to 30. But my commute is 30 miles round trip, with no charging at work. I'd need 35 miles to make the round trip solely under EV power. And of course if the distance were longer, I would need far more range.

I've been considering moving to my intended retirement location, and driving into the office once per pay period for a couple of days. That would be about 220 miles round trip, and I've already been scouting out prices for used TDIs. once this lockdown is over and I actually am permitted to go to the office again, I plan on having that discussion with management. Not certain they'll allow it, but they allow contractors to do it now, so I think they don't have an argument against it.
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Old April 3rd, 2020, 07:11   #39
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ATC,

I full agree with you. I'm honestly interested in the Samsung battery breakthrough that significantly enhances density, and ALSO significantly reduces weight: https://www.motorauthority.com/news/...y-breakthrough ... If something like this made it into say the Q5 hybrid, or a diesel hybrid, you'd effectively increase all electric range to probably 40+, while giving the option of long trips on the ICE engine.

But, like you said the bigger thing is for those who can we should do a full shift to not driving at all. Tires pollute more than the damned engines... heavier vehicles like EVs, big trucks, heavy SUVs, and cheap tires pollute more... no such thing as a free lunch right? https://www.motor1.com/news/405475/t...llution-study/

As far as your individual setup:

Your niro is supposedly "0" on electric and 190 g/mi on gas. Or 950grams * 5 = 4,750 grams / week.

2015 Q5 TDI is 384 g/mi --- 220 miles --- 84,480 grams
2015 A7 TDI is 349 g/mi --- 220 miles --- 76,780 grams
2015 VW Golf TDI is 295 g/mi - 220 miles - 64,900 grams

2019 Niro PHEV - 220 miles - 36,100 grams
( As far as environmental -- The niro is a relatively good car via pollution -- https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Powe...ro&srchtyp=ymm --- click ont he "Energy & Environment Tab -- I extrapolated your milage / all gas base on the 2.2gal / 100mi figure vs the niro touring which is 2.3gal /100 mi and used that to calculate your gas only pollution ) Not even the VW Jetta touches the niro, which is amazing to me, since the jetta is a crazy fuel effecient vehicle.

My other half before all of this got her work to let her work from home 1 day per week. If we're being environmental and real, this needs to be more of the norm for those of us with office jobs. If everyone could do it and just work from home 1 day per week, that would immediately reduce pollution by 20% due to the reduction in miles. Couple that with a vehicle that get its emissions cut 50% via hybridization, and you go down to producing only 40% of the total pollution you did before via driving.

It's all about shifts in how we do things ( and i know its not realistic for everyone to work from home... just saying it all helps in the scale. )

Last edited by Daemon64; April 3rd, 2020 at 07:15.
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Old April 3rd, 2020, 07:50   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daemon64 View Post
100% Agree. I think massive amounts of hybrids are coming. Especially PHEV. US Q5 PHEV, has a co2 emissions of 165 g/mi according to the fueleconomy.gov, and the regular version is 364 g/mi. It has a supposed 20mile all electric range.
The euro SQ5 TDI MHEV gets pretty close to that, and thats a diesel performance version.
Interesting is that g/mi brings them pretty close to a full electric on our current electric grid mix. ( Some places are cleaner than others ofcourse ).
The Model Y produces about 90 g/mi CO2 using the New England grid mix. This is probably going to be a tough year for most auto sales, but vehicles like the Q5 are going to get absolutely crushed, imo. I expect the Model Y to take a similar sized bite out of the premium CUV pie as the Model 3 did to the premium sedan segment.
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Old April 3rd, 2020, 08:19   #41
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Yeah I'm not sure honestly. Subaru for example lost the least amount of sales w/ their forester so far... And thats one of the bigger ones... So almost all manufacturers are down about 50% total sales right now. And i agree it will be a tough year. But being realistic here: Tesla sold a total of 192k vehicles in the USA in 2018, and 192.25k in 2019, and total Tesla Q1 2020 figures worldwide are 88,400 vehicles. The US car market sets 17.3 million per year new vehicles. So Tesla makes up 1.12% of all NEW US car sales. Yes they somewhat pull from their competition... but its' not as much as everyone thinks. Also keep in mind in the US, there are 33.8 million used cars sold each year. Also keep in mind Tesla has only sold world wide 1,023,718 vehicles as of Q1 2020 ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc. ) .... the US has 284.5 million registered vehicles as of 2019... so tesla if you counted all sales total would make up .36% of the US registered vehicles if they were all here......

Not saying that Tesla is not making headway.... they were talking about potentially selling 500k vehicles there year, and lets assume they double that by 2024 selling 1 million per year world wide its still way too small and not enough to make a real difference...( Supposedly between Europe, Russia, US, Japand, Brazil, India, China there were 65.5 million new vehicles sold in 2019 ) Tesla Sold 365,194 world wide in 2019,or .56% of all new vehicles. In perspective Ford sold 17.1 million vehicles world wide in the same time period.

Anyways all I'm getting at is, Tesla's gains are interesting, but I don't think they are making as much of an impact right now as much as the hype says...
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Old April 3rd, 2020, 08:59   #42
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I actually think Tesla's impact on the auto industry is still underappreciated. I expect that the 1 million annual production rate will happen in 2022 not 2024. Hopefully, the Berlin Gigafactory will be up and running next year, and the Shanghai Gigafactory will ramp up production impressively this year. Hard to say for sure what's going to happen in the current situation though.
Btw, a million vehicles produced is nothing to sneeze at. The detractors said the same thing at 10,000, 100,000, and I'm sure they'll be singing the same tune when Tesla #10 million rolls off the production line. I expect that will be in the 2025 timeframe.

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Old April 3rd, 2020, 10:01   #43
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Turbo,

Please do not mistake my statement as detracting from Tesla's success. They are the first new US car manufacturer to succeed in 1/2 century. So absolutely more power to them. My statement was more on their supply chain impact globally and US based. Current statistics show that pure EVs make up around 2% of global auto sales. Meaning 98% are ICE, Hybrid or etc...

Lets say by 2022 Tesla is effectively selling 1 Million Electric cars annually. That still means 64/65 Million cars annually are ICE or hybrid. That doesn't solve our problems. Its great for Tesla's bottom line sure. But environmentally its a drop in the bucket. All I am saying in relation to that is I am more interested in Advances to ICE / Hybrid cars right now since they make up such a large % of the market, they will have the biggest impact in the long term right now. Lets say globally we had a 20 - 50% reduction in ICE vehicles CO2 output, through advances in timing, valve, cams, etc... that are already coming out + hybridizing them, and that made up the majority of all the ICE cars sold since the other models would be phase out. Even at a 20% reduction across that board.... that would mean a if each car produced 300 g/mi average and 20% was the figure that would be a reduction of 60 g/mi * 64 million vs 1 million * 300 g/mi reduction ---- 3,840,000,000 less g vs 300,000,000g.... Hell even a modest 5% reduction across the ICE vehicles would be a 960,000,000g, and a 2% reduction would still be more impactful than all electrics sold that year @ 384,000,000g reduction and all of that assumes 0 g/mi for electrics, which we know that based on energy mix they do infact pollute some... I am heavily weighting in Electrics favor in these figures. Also keep in mind these are all g/mi figures. The impact is ridiculous.

Last edited by Daemon64; April 3rd, 2020 at 11:05. Reason: Added Remark on g/mi
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Old April 4th, 2020, 12:16   #44
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Daemon64 you absolutely nailed it regarding the environmental impact of work from home (WFH).

If there is to be any silver lining when we come out of this cov2 cloud, it'll be the widespread recognition that roughly 1/3 workers can EASILY work from home by remote connection and be fully effective, if not more productive. That would do far more for environmental health than any 5 year projected increase of electric car sales could do.

I will also argue that WFH boosts family health and mental health. I've seen more families walking together and playing with their pets and kids and actually talking and having fun than I have since the 70's. It's the way we ought to be, but everyone was so obsessed with competing to have more more more.

Negawatts is KING. Energy you don't spend is worth 100 times the small efficiency gains of driving electric cars MORE miles. Jevon's paradox is real.

There's a reason the recycling mandate always was "reduce, reuse, recycle". But oddly NO ONE gets it. It's because reduce is 100 times more effective than recycling and 10 times more effective than reusing. Do it in that order: reduce, reuse, recycle.

Same principle applies to living our lives, how we structure work and family balance, our relations to our things. We've got to learn to not 'fall in love' with our automobiles.

I know I'm just as guilty as anyone here. Always been a 'car guy'. But I realize my folly.

I'm done ranting I guess. I do think that it's relevant to the topic though. Electric cars are no panacea to anything. They're kind of a status symbol at this point and time. We're the problem because we value 'sexy, fast' cars more than we value VALUE and UTILITY.

How you power a car is only 1/10th as important as how much you drive.
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Old April 4th, 2020, 12:55   #45
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I'd argue that every vehicle is a status symbol, whether or not we choose to admit it. I know I have a different impression of a perfect stranger that pulls up in a brand new bimmer than the one pulling up in a banged up, rusted out, twenty year old Nissan- before they even step out of the vehicle. It's unfortunate, but that's reality.

This ducted injection tech is exciting, but I think it's too late to have an impact on diesel passenger cars.
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