NHTSA Update on CR HPFP failure investigation

madmako

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I seem to remember back when Audi.....

"Are you old enough to remember the Audi 5000 of the mid- eighties? Thousands had failures of many systems such as transmission, A/C, engine. Many drivers consider Audi to be well-engineered cars."

I seem to remember the trade and consumer media hammering Audi resulting in very poor sales for a few years. And, after all that, they're still here and so will VW. Even if TDI HPFP failures reach 5%, for example, the VW actuaries will determine the best cost/benefit model which will allow them to ultimately prevail.

If, when it's all said and done, the consumer just happens to benefit, so much the better for the VW PR department.
 

RabbitGTI

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I remember the Audi 5000. That was a good car that Andy Rooney killed with his hysterical unintended acceleration hatchet job. The POS that fell apart was the early Audi 100 models.
 

NateTDI

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I remember the Audi 5000. That was a good car that Andy Rooney killed with his hysterical unintended acceleration hatchet job. The POS that fell apart was the early Audi 100 models.
It was Ed Bradley not andy Rooney
 

danix

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I seem to remember the trade and consumer media hammering Audi resulting in very poor sales for a few years. And, after all that, they're still here and so will VW. Even if TDI HPFP failures reach 5%, for example, the VW actuaries will determine the best cost/benefit model which will allow them to ultimately prevail.

If, when it's all said and done, the consumer just happens to benefit, so much the better for the VW PR department.
Hate to tell you, but values on CR engined TDIs are dropping much more quickly than normal. I strongly suspect a connection to the fuel issue.
 

timwagon

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Hate to tell you, but values on CR engined TDIs are dropping much more quickly than normal. I strongly suspect a connection to the fuel issue.
JSW resale values are very strong.

KBB estimates a 2009 JSW, no options, in very good to to excellent condition with 50k miles to have a private party resale value of around $19,600.

That's depreciation of about 22% on a 3 year old car. Average deprecitation on a 3 year old car is about 45%.

There are also many posts on these forums by potential buyers lamenting the high prices of used JSWs.
 

Niner

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JSW resale values are very strong.

KBB estimates a 2009 JSW, no options, in very good to to excellent condition with 50k miles to have a private party resale value of around $19,600.

That's depreciation of about 22% on a 3 year old car. Average deprecitation on a 3 year old car is about 45%.

There are also many posts on these forums by potential buyers lamenting the high prices of used JSWs.
No, that's just an indication of a lot of small business owners being cheap with wanting to buy used cars and wanting a car to depreciate in someone else's garage, not on their watch. Blow a turbo, a fuel system, or a DPF exhaust system on one of these, as they get older, and the resale prices are going to drop like a stone due to the projected repair costs, rightfully so.
 

timwagon

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No, that's just an indication of a lot of small business owners being cheap with wanting to buy used cars and wanting a car to depreciate in someone else's garage, not on their watch. Blow a turbo, a fuel system, or a DPF exhaust system on one of these, as they get older, and the resale prices are going to drop like a stone due to the projected repair costs, rightfully so.
Huh?

So the value is not dropping, but will soon start to drop? I'm having a hard time following your posts on this one... All evidence I see is the resale values on TDI models is very strong, much higher than average.

Will these cars start to fall apart and we'll see their values suddenly sink?

I guess it could happen, but it's not happening now.
 

kjclow

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According to kelly blue book, my 2010 JSW with 30K miles is about equal to what I paid for it. I know, it's like everything else I own. It is truely only worth what someone else is willing to pay me for it and since I am not willing to sell it, the listed value doesn't matter.
 

danix

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Huh?

So the value is not dropping, but will soon start to drop? I'm having a hard time following your posts on this one... All evidence I see is the resale values on TDI models is very strong, much higher than average.

Will these cars start to fall apart and we'll see their values suddenly sink?

I guess it could happen, but it's not happening now.
Sorry, but it is happening. KBB is an average value and means nothing in the real world.

Drive your car to the dealer and ask what you can get for it in trade - that's the value. Private parties will pay more, but not a lot of people have the cash on hand, and it's a lot easier to finance a new car.
 

FormerGasser

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Sorry, but it is happening. KBB is an average value and means nothing in the real world.

Drive your car to the dealer and ask what you can get for it in trade - that's the value. Private parties will pay more, but not a lot of people have the cash on hand, and it's a lot easier to finance a new car.
I've had just as "easy" of a time financing a used car as a new one so not sure why you think a PP needs cash on hand.
 

danix

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Used car loans are made according to financing limits set by the bank/finance company. You can't walk in and get a $25000 loan on a car they are only willing to loan $20k for.
Also, the interest rate on used car loans is typically much higher than on new cars.
Perhaps we should start a different thread on "CR TDI resale values", as these comments are unrelated to the NHTSA investigation.
 

CedarPark68

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I know I was going to get 22k on a 2011 JSW 6 spd w/Pano, No Nav and 25k miles.
And this was with the notion of me buying a new 2012 TDI with NO discount.

My initial offer was I'll write a check for 2k and buy the new TDI at list, you buy out my current TDI. They said NO.
( I have 2k that would come back to me in the Extended Warranty.... so for me a loss, but not out of my immediate pocket as I've already paid )



Take this info and decide for yourself if prices are falling or not.
 

timwagon

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Used car loans are made according to financing limits set by the bank/finance company. You can't walk in and get a $25000 loan on a car they are only willing to loan $20k for.
Also, the interest rate on used car loans is typically much higher than on new cars.
Perhaps we should start a different thread on "CR TDI resale values", as these comments are unrelated to the NHTSA investigation.
Used car loan rates aren't much higher than new car rates. Check PENFED and other car loan sites. Spread is often 1%, or even less.

Also, I've sold many cars to private parties, and gotten top dollar. A dealer trade value is only worthwhile if the dealer offer plus sales tax savings comes close to the private party value.

Feel free to start another thread on this topic - it's your post that initiated this unrelated side discussion.
 

El Dobro

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Most dealers are using Galves to determine trade-in values.
 

Niner

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JSW resale values are very strong.
KBB estimates a 2009 JSW, no options, in very good to to excellent condition with 50k miles to have a private party resale value of around $19,600.
That's depreciation of about 22% on a 3 year old car. Average deprecitation on a 3 year old car is about 45%.
There are also many posts on these forums by potential buyers lamenting the high prices of used JSWs.
Here ya go...
I believe this was listed on ebay 3 or 4 times before it finally sold. Low mileage too 1800 miles. With pano sunroof and manual, 17" wheels, this was a $27k car MSRP, eh? Sold for $22,100.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=330647046471#ht_50107wt_1165
 

timwagon

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Here ya go...
I believe this was listed on ebay 3 or 4 times before it finally sold. Low mileage too 1800 miles. With pano sunroof and manual, 17" wheels, this was a $27k car MSRP, eh? Sold for $22,100.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=330647046471#ht_50107wt_1165
This car had a major mechanical failure (probably HPFP) and was a dealer buyback.

It was also being sold by a no-name used car dealer, not a VW dealer.

This car has "trouble" written all over it. I'm surprised it sold for so much.
 
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Niner

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This car had a major mechanical failure (probably HPFP) and was a dealer buyback.
It was also being sold by a no-name used car dealer, not a VW dealer.
This car has "trouble" written all over it. I'm surprised it sold for so much.
So you are saying it was worth less. So we have 3 scenerio's. Which one is correct?
1. Who cares about failures, it's under warranty, no problem, right? It's VW they'll warranty it?
2. Do real HPFP failures really devalue the car?
3. Does the potential for a HPFP KaBoom! really devalue the sales price of a used car?
Which is it? As a used car buyer in the market, a non flipper or curbstoner that will title the car in my name, I go with scene number 3....
1 is false, VW liquidated this car on an unwilling buy back.
2 is true, if we consider how much this car depreciated in 1700 miles.
3 is also true, based on perceived risk and potential out of pocket $8000 payout, by anyone that has done a search on VW and HPFP failure and going KaBoom on the internet, and has a modicum of critical thinking skills.
 

kjclow

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The devaulation from msrp to 1700 miles seems about right for any car. That's about 20% just for driving it off the lot.
 

timwagon

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I agree that a car that's been bought back as a "lemon", and then sold through a third-party unaffiliated dealership will be worth less than another comparable used car.

That's just common sense.

The original owner was made whole by VW, with either a refund or another new car.

Resale values on TDIs remain strong, much stronger than average.
 

Niner

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Resale values on TDIs remain strong, much stronger than average.
Sounds like you are a candidate for a Vendors License here at TDI club... you turned your hobby into a business. "Selling many cars at top dollar", indicates to me, motive and interest in profit.
 

timwagon

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Sounds like you are a candidate for a Vendors License here at TDI club... you turned your hobby into a business. "Selling many cars at top dollar", indicates to me, motive and interest in profit.
Yes, many cars, over 37 years of ownership.

I've owned nine cars since 1976. I sold all but two privately.

I guess seven private sales in 37 years makes me a real player in the car market.

If you're convinced that the bottom is about to fall out of the CR TDI market, why wouldn't you get out while you can? It would seem a logical thing to do, considering your certainty about future CR TDI values.
 
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no-blue-screen

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Sorry Niner but that is just a bad example. Why would a dealer buy a car back over a 'contaminated fuel filter'? When the dealer buys the car back it is a lemon.

This makes it a risky buy and hence lowers the retail value of the car. This would hold true for any car that was a dealer buy back....not just a VW TDI.
 

Niner

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I agree that a car that's been bought back as a "lemon", and then sold through a third-party unaffiliated dealership will be worth less than another comparable used car.

That's just common sense.

The original owner was made whole by VW, with either a refund or another new car.

Resale values on TDIs remain strong, much stronger than average.
I bet Granite Rooster doesn't feel the same as you do about value...
 

timwagon

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So, selling 7 cars is "many"? :rolleyes:
"Many" is a pretty flexible term.

Maybe I should have said "quite a few" times?

Sorry if I gave the impression that I was running a used car lot on the side.

My original point was that private sales are no big deal, and I've done it for most of the cars I've owned. I've found it's a better deal than trading in a used car.

I guess I won't be registering as a vendor any time soon...
 

timwagon

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I bet Granite Rooster doesn't feel the same as you do about value...
I see his ad. He's asking about $18,300, which is about 75% of what he paid for his 2010 JSW if he paid around $25k new.

The car looks to be in excellent condition, but it does have fairly high mileage for a 2 year old car, nearly double the 15k/year an average driver puts on.

Do you consider that poor value? Looks pretty good to me.

I guess we have different ideas about used car values in general.

Most sellers would be very pleased to get 75% of their purchase price after 2 years and 57k miles.
 
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MonsterTDI09

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Here is my 2 cents.I saw 2 TDI one 09 and 10 at the dealer both have low mileage they were asking 20K to 22K. Sorry for going off topic.
 

El Dobro

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VW dealers can take trade-ins and sell used at higher values because they can certify the cars. Non-VW dealers can't.
 
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