Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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turbobrick240

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Speaking of manufacturing, Tesla's production of the Model 3 has catapulted their US sales beyond those of Mercedes. The Model 3 alone is now outselling all of the BMW passenger car offerings combined in this market. The dam has been breached.
 

Tin Man

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Speaking of manufacturing, Tesla's production of the Model 3 has catapulted their US sales beyond those of Mercedes. The Model 3 alone is now outselling all of the BMW passenger car offerings combined in this market. The dam has been breached.
We'll see if this continues, which would be good. I thought it was just that Tesla finally is able to fulfill its orders from a year or two so the stats are showing this bump. Also predictably Tesla has decreased available options (high level autonomous driving) and raised the price of the base model. Their finances are still in question.
 
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oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Speaking of manufacturing, Tesla's production of the Model 3 has catapulted their US sales beyond those of Mercedes. The Model 3 alone is now outselling all of the BMW passenger car offerings combined in this market. The dam has been breached.
And you know what is funny about that? Loads of them immediately get put on auction sites. Seriously, it is crazy. We are a dealer here, and we (my boss) is always on dealer only auction sites looking for specific cars for customers, and 3s are all over the place. So the damn may have been breached, but how much water is behind it and how much saturation the land under it will take remains to be seen.

The same thing happened in '98 when the New Beetle debuted. We had people following the transport trucks down the highway to the dealer, sometimes for 100 miles, to get one. I put clutches in several brand new ones the new owners fried because they didn't really know how to drive a stick, but HAD to have one anyway. :rolleyes: It was crazy. The Puebla plant was so overwhelmed with NB production that VAG had to bump the North American Golf assembly back to Wolfsburg, and eventually to San Paulo to keep up.

Now you cannot hardly give a NB away, and its successor is going out of production in a few months due to lack of sales. I suspect Volkswagen's EV retro Microbus thing will enjoy a similar flash in the pan, but may usher in an increase in general sales and a trend in that direction. Because the '98 NB sales did get a LOT of traffic into Volkswagen showrooms, much of which resulted in other models being sold.

We'll see. :)
 
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turbobrick240

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And you know what is funny about that? Loads of them immediately get put on auction sites. Seriously, it is crazy. We are a dealer here, and we (my boss) is always on dealer only auction sites looking for specific cars for customers, and 3s are all over the place. So the damn may have been breached, but how much water is behind it and how much saturation the land under it will take remains to be seen.

The same thing happened in '98 when the New Beetle debuted. We had people following the transport trucks down the highway to the dealer, sometimes for 100 miles, to get one. I put clutches in several brand new ones the new owners fried because they didn't really know how to drive a stick, but HAD to have one anyway. :rolleyes: It was crazy. The Puebla plant was so overwhelmed with NB production that VAG had to bump the North American Golf assembly back to Wolfsburg, and eventually to San Paulo to keep up.

Now you cannot hardly give a NB away, and its successor is going out of production in a few months due to lack of sales. I suspect Volkswagen's EV retro Microbus thing will enjoy a similar flash in the pan, but may usher in an increase in general sales and a trend in that direction. Because the '98 NB sales did get a LOT of traffic into Volkswagen showrooms, much of which resulted in other models being sold.

We'll see. :)
That's a great anecdote. I wonder how many of those Model 3's may have been sold by owners who wanted to upgrade to the AWD or performance model once those became available. There definitely is a craze around the Model 3. Those who want one REALLY want one. Many people who would normally be looking at $20-25k new cars are stretching their finances to get them @ $50k+ . I really don't see the demand abating anytime soon, but I guess anything is possible.

I actually really like a lot of the "retro" car designs like the new beetles, mini cooper, previous gen. Mustang and Charger, but the appeal does seem to have an expiration date with the general public. I suppose the original designs didn't last forever either- though the beetle had a pretty impressive run.
 

El Dobro

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I pass by a Tesla staging area in my commute and it's loaded with 3s.
 

kjclow

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That's a great anecdote. I wonder how many of those Model 3's may have been sold by owners who wanted to upgrade to the AWD or performance model once those became available. There definitely is a craze around the Model 3. Those who want one REALLY want one. Many people who would normally be looking at $20-25k new cars are stretching their finances to get them @ $50k+ . I really don't see the demand abating anytime soon, but I guess anything is possible.

I actually really like a lot of the "retro" car designs like the new beetles, mini cooper, previous gen. Mustang and Charger, but the appeal does seem to have an expiration date with the general public. I suppose the original designs didn't last forever either- though the beetle had a pretty impressive run.
I wonder how many of those Tesla 3s were ordered on speculation. There was no product on market and I remember reading an article or two that speculated that there would be a market upcharge on the 3s. Now that they are hitting the streets in decent numbers, the speculators may have decided to dump them.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
I think that is exactly what is happening, because you run Carfaxes on them, and they often are dealer owned and never actually assigned or ever registered or licensed.
 

compu_85

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Interesting, hopefully the people that buy those cars know they won't have any warranty since they were sold through a 3rd party dealer...

-J
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Interesting, hopefully the people that buy those cars know they won't have any warranty since they were sold through a 3rd party dealer...

-J

That depends on how the paper trail works. We deal with that, too. New-but-never-sold, although Tesla plays by their own rules so who knows with them.
 

MonsterTDI09

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And you know what is funny about that? Loads of them immediately get put on auction sites. Seriously, it is crazy. We are a dealer here, and we (my boss) is always on dealer only auction sites looking for specific cars for customers, and 3s are all over the place. So the damn may have been breached, but how much water is behind it and how much saturation the land under it will take remains to be seen.

The same thing happened in '98 when the New Beetle debuted. We had people following the transport trucks down the highway to the dealer, sometimes for 100 miles, to get one. I put clutches in several brand new ones the new owners fried because they didn't really know how to drive a stick, but HAD to have one anyway. :rolleyes: It was crazy. The Puebla plant was so overwhelmed with NB production that VAG had to bump the North American Golf assembly back to Wolfsburg, and eventually to San Paulo to keep up.

Now you cannot hardly give a NB away, and its successor is going out of production in a few months due to lack of sales. I suspect Volkswagen's EV retro Microbus thing will enjoy a similar flash in the pan, but may usher in an increase in general sales and a trend in that direction. Because the '98 NB sales did get a LOT of traffic into Volkswagen showrooms, much of which resulted in other models being sold.

We'll see. :)
Speaking a flash in the pan. Check this out. https://denver.craigslist.org/cto/d/2004-volkswagen-phaeton/6711355372.html
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Right - I know with used cars anyway if a Tesla goes through a dealership (IE not sold private party or CPO) the remainder of the warranty is void. They have specific wording in the purchase agreement saying that resellers are not allowed.

https://www.tesla.com/order/download-order-agreement?country=US

That is probably their way out of a lot of liabilities. Wise choice, I suppose. And their loaners are not theirs anyway. I think they pawn that off to Enterprise.
 

turbobrick240

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The Fisker is neat looking, though I'm not a fan of the rear design. I think there is almost zero chance they have actually made a breakthrough in solid state battery tech as they claim. Hope I'm wrong.
 

nwdiver

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Going by the current popular thinking and not making your own judgment is not science either.
I don't go by popular thinking. I go with consensus. There's a difference. Outside of Nuclear and Solar I'm no where near qualified to have my own opinion. I'm humble enough not to tell my doctor I know XYZ better... if I don't like what I hear I don't judge for myself (not qualified)... I get a second opinion.

It behooves us as part of the watchful public to have some “original” thinking in order to detect bias and understand different points of view as possibilities. Sometimes, the emperor has no clothes.
Should we be humble or watching for bias in a field we know next to nothing about? Can't have it both ways.

Another example of mature thinking about EV’s is the idea that hydrogen cars are an option..... while being part of a good discussion, and concentrating on this disadvantage, does not give the full picture.
... The max 'well-wheels' thermodynamic efficiency of H2 is <half that of a BEV and the additional embedded energy of the battery in a BEV is recovered after ~50k miles... what's the rest of the picture?
 

nwdiver

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Well, if you want to get the CO2 out of the air, how about making diesel fuel from it like Audi is working on: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/08/audi-expanding-output-of-sustainable-diesel-fuel.html
Think I've also seen the same thing being done by someone in Norway, but they're calling it "Blue Crude"...
Economics and Physics. It would cost >3x as much per mile and use ~10x as much land area.

Plus you lose the ability to use curtailed renewable energy. So it's a lose-lose-lose proposition...
 
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Tin Man

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Economics and Physics. It would cost >3x as much per mile and use ~10x as much land area.

Plus you lose the ability to use curtailed renewable energy. So it's a lose-lose-lose proposition...
Uh, if you actually read the article, the Audi process actually uses curtailed renewable energy:

"The whole process runs on surplus hydroelectric power, and heat generated during manufacturing can be captured and routed to homes or businesses."

See more on this topic: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60983.pdf
 

nwdiver

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Uh, if you actually read the article, the Audi process actually uses curtailed renewable energy:
True; I should have said 'minimized' instead of 'lost'... a great deal of curtailment is a result of transmission constraints. EVs help solve this by being very distributed.

It depends on the cost of the infrastructure used to manufacture diesel. Unless it's cheap enough to cost effectively operate with a capacity factor of ~10% it's unlikely to greatly benefit from curtailed energy. Most EV charging could occur almost exclusively during curtailment events.

I think it's likely we'll use hydrocarbons for long-term storage but Diesel isn't a likely candidate due to complexity and cost issues. CH4 would be preferable to diesel for a variety of reasons not the least of which is NOx. But we're decades away from this being beneficial. Charging a battery at ~90% efficiency is better than converting electricity to a hydrocarbon at ~60% efficiency.

There are thermodynamic limitations that you cannot overcome with technology. First Principles. 1kWh can either be used to propel an EV ~3.5miles or converted to ~0.6kWh of diesel then used as fuel to propel a diesel powered car ~0.5miles... Technology will make batteries lighter, cheaper, bigger and increase charging speed. It cannot change thermodynamics.
 
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Tin Man

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:cool:
True; I should have said 'minimized' instead of 'lost'... a great deal of curtailment is a result of transmission constraints. EVs help solve this by being very distributed.

It depends on the cost of the infrastructure used to manufacture diesel. Unless it's cheap enough to cost effectively operate with a capacity factor of ~10% it's unlikely to greatly benefit from curtailed energy. Most EV charging could occur almost exclusively during curtailment events.

I think it's likely we'll use hydrocarbons for long-term storage but Diesel isn't a likely candidate due to complexity and cost issues. CH4 would be preferable to diesel for a variety of reasons not the least of which is NOx. But we're decades away from this being beneficial. Charging a battery at ~90% efficiency is better than converting electricity to a hydrocarbon at ~60% efficiency.

There are thermodynamic limitations that you cannot overcome with technology. First Principles. 1kWh can either be used to propel an EV ~3.5miles or converted to ~0.6kWh of diesel then used in as fuel to propel a diesel powered car ~0.5miles... Technology will make batteries lighter and cheaper. It cannot change thermodynamics.
Thermodynamics, last time I checked, does not limit the percentage (up to a theoretical 99% or so) of energy transfer. Saying EV tech "will" do anything in the future and ignoring competing tech, however inefficient currently, is disingenuous and prejudicial. Energy that isn't being used can produce something valuable no matter the percentage efficiency and be less expensive or more expensive given possible technological advancements, or even differ in unrelated convenience factors (Audi is right to think synthetic diesel can be very convenient if it works).

Your opinion just like everyone else....
 
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Tin Man

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There is a massive loss due to underground impedance for AC electricity transfer that makes most of the efficiencies vary quite a bit.
 

nwdiver

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:cool:
Saying EV tech "will" do anything in the future and ignoring competing tech, however inefficient currently, is disingenuous and prejudicial.
??? How does this qualify as 'everything' ???

~0.5miles... Technology will make batteries lighter, cheaper, bigger and increase charging speed.
Will you ever be able to carry ~200 miles of range in the equivalent of a 5gal jerry can? No. Will you ever be able to add ~200 miles of charge to a battery in <5 minutes? Probably not. Are these necessary to viability? No.

The fun part is that while this is neither necessary nor likely in the near future there are no thermodynamic limitations which make them impossible. That's not true for ICE. ICE is a heat engine. Heat engines have a maximum theoretical efficiency of ~60% IIRC (combined cycle). So even if they're '100% efficient' they're only ~60% efficient. Looked it up... in an impossibly perfect world the best you can get is 73%... if friction doesn't exist...

Conversion of energy to hydrogen has similar limitations (You're not 'transferring'... it's a chemical reaction). BEVs are only limited by resistance losses which are significantly lower.

There is a massive loss due to underground impedance for AC electricity transfer that makes most of the efficiencies vary quite a bit.
Transmission lines are above ground in part for that reason. Line losses average ~12%.

LOL; Concern for the effect of CO2 saved diesel in passenger vehicles. It's NOx and smog that's killing it. Two very different effects...
 
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turbocharged798

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??? How does this qualify as 'everything' ???



Will you ever be able to carry ~200 miles of range in the equivalent of a 5gal jerry can? No. Will you ever be able to add ~200 miles of charge to a battery in <5 minutes? Probably not. Are these necessary to viability? No.

The fun part is that while this is neither necessary nor likely in the near future there are no thermodynamic limitations which make them impossible. That's not true for ICE. ICE is a heat engine. Heat engines have a maximum theoretical efficiency of ~60% IIRC (combined cycle). So even if they're '100% efficient' they're only ~60% efficient. Looked it up... in an impossibly perfect world the best you can get is 73%... if friction doesn't exist...

Conversion of energy to hydrogen has similar limitations (You're not 'transferring'... it's a chemical reaction). BEVs are only limited by resistance losses which are significantly lower.



Transmission lines are above ground in part for that reason. Line losses average ~12%.



LOL; Concern for the effect of CO2 saved diesel in passenger vehicles. It's NOx and smog that's killing it. Two very different effects...
ICE is a LOT more efficient when you live in cold areas and use the waste heat for cabin heating.
 

turbobrick240

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ICE is a LOT more efficient when you live in cold areas and use the waste heat for cabin heating.
ICEV's are still far less efficient than EV's in those conditions. It is precisely because of that inefficiency that there is so much easily recoverable waste heat. They do have the advantage of having their range less impacted by cold weather/cabin heating. EV's on the other hand can be warmed/defrosted while still plugged in to minimize range loss.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/electric-cars-cold-weather-temperatures
 
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turbobrick240

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Clearly, efficiency is an important criterion to most tdi owners. But the majority of people are much more interested in dollars and cents than btu's and joules. Eventually, they'll get the message that EV's cost half as much(and less) to operate. Imo, a good BEV with 200+ miles of range for ~$25k will be just as big of a game changer as the Model 3.
 

turbocharged798

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ICEV's are still far less efficient than EV's in those conditions. It is precisely because of that inefficiency that there is so much easily recoverable waste heat. They do have the advantage of having their range less impacted by cold weather/cabin heating. EV's on the other hand can be warmed/defrosted while still plugged in to minimize range loss.

https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/electric-cars-cold-weather-temperatures

There is a reason people in NY heat with OIL and not with electric. Electric heat is extremely expensive and inefficient here. I do not see how heating your car with electric when you are not in it is more efficient. Heat pumps are useless when its below 0.


Clearly, efficiency is an important criterion to most tdi owners. But the majority of people are much more interested in dollars and cents than btu's and joules. Eventually, they'll get the message that EV's cost half as much(and less) to operate. Imo, a good BEV with 200+ miles of range for ~$25k will be just as big of a game changer as the Model 3.

They don't for me, I already calculated that. Our local utility(central hudson) is very expensive and is set to continue to raise rates.



I already calculated that the well to wheel efficiency of an EV is slightly higher than an ALH. That's because all the pro EV studies somehow leave line losses, battery losses, and generating losses. Once you factor those in the playing field levels.
 

bhtooefr

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UCS's data (showing gasoline-equivalent MPG of EVs in various grid regions) is based on GREET upstream factors, eGRID 2016 data (covering all generating losses), EIA grid loss data (covering all line losses), and EPA combined EV efficiency data (covering all charging/battery losses - EPA measures input electricity at the plug - although your results may of course vary on the driving efficiency, it is the EPA drive cycles after all).
 
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