Picken's Plan

A GE 3.6 MW turbine has a diameter of 104m which means a blade tip speed of 364 mph at the maximum 15.3 rpm. This is the maximum, not the normal operating envelope.

But as noted earlier, bird mortality as a reason to not build modern wind farm is a canard. See this article on treehugger which cites the Altamont Pass installation as the source for a concern that should no longer be a factor: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/04/common_misconce.php
2.19 bird death per turbine, per year would be competitive, at a minimum I think, with mortality due to the environmental footprint of the fossil-fuel-based generation the turbine replaces.

Two recently proposed projects in areas dear to me, Eastern Long Island and coastal Rhode Island were shouted down using migratory bird mortality, when in fact it is just a fig leaf for otherwise green people to conceal their real concern - they don't want to look at them.

RI_TDI said:

But as noted earlier, bird mortality as a reason to not build modern wind farm is a canard.

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Wind related bird deaths sure sound better than this to me;



Our present relationship with the Devil's Tea is the most deady experiment human kind has ever entered into. It's simply got to stop ASAP.

I guess if bird deaths are the issue, then maybe the government and states should ban duck hunting.

dieselgrandad said:

I feel too that nuclear has to be a major part of the equation. But the irrational response to nukes is even worse than wind. "What about Chernobyl .... what about Three Mile Island?" is what you hear form the anti-nuke crowd, and the public buys into it.

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It certainly is irrational. Chernobyl was a research facility and of a design that in no way matches requirements of nuclear facilities in the US, or any other country for that matter. Three Mile Island demonstrated that our containment designs WORK! And this was in spite of neglected maintenance and outright operator error!

Dave_D said:

It certainly is irrational. Chernobyl was a research facility and of a design that in no way matches requirements of nuclear facilities in the US, or any other country for that matter. Three Mile Island demonstrated that our containment designs WORK! And this was in spite of neglected maintenance and outright operator error!

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Indeed. I feel completely at ease and safe living within twenty miles of a 3-reactor nuke plant.

TurbinePower said:

With "filling" stations all tied to the national electricity grid, a problem with the grid in an area would knock out all of the stations tied to that grid. You couldn't go across the street to a competitor, they're tied to the same power plants and distribution grid. End result? You're SOL if a portion of the network gets overstressed, struck by lightning, hit by a terrorist attack, goes critical and melts down, whatever have you.

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Ah... the beauty of the Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV).

Always got the liquid fueled generator when you need electricity in a pinch.

nicklockard said:

I have always thought that an array of wind turbines should be coupled to pumping water into reservoirs whenever winds are high and load demand is low. Then when wind is insufficient and loads are high, the water can power a turbine as it falls downhill. Yes, there are some conversion inefficiencies involved, but it's better than not having the load balancing.

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There are already 25 such water pumping storage facilities operating as we speak in the U.S.

Joe_Meehan said:

Have you ever been anywhere close to a group of the really big jobs? You can fell it, more than hear it.

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Well, I have.

I've stood directly below three different commercial scale units in three different locations in Iowa; never experienced any of the symptoms you have described. One of those units was part of an 89 turbine group.

This year a commercial scale turbine was installed on the grounds of the Iowa State Fair. Thousands of Iowa fair goers walked directly beneath and around this unit. It is so tall, I bet some of them never even noticed that it was there. I drove over 2 hours just to see this unit and to observe the reactions of Iowans. Didn't see anyone dizzy or nauseous or whatever.

Ny neighbor has a smaller scale unit that I can see from my bedroom. I think maybe three days a year we can hear at all. The rest of the time it is so quiet it might as well be on the moon.

Maybe there are installations where noise is a problem, but I've yet to see/experience one.

dieselgrandad said:

Technically it's best to produce the power as close to where it will be used as possible. The biggest problem I see w/ the Picken's Plan is getting the power to major metro areas. While the sparse population may mean minimal opposition to turbines, the NIMBY's will come out of the woodwork in opposition to the transmission lines that will have get the power where it's needed.

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How about a big idea?

We build new, high speed, electric rail all across the U.S. like the superfast trains in Japan or France. In the right of ways, we build high capacity transmission facilities to feed power from the midwest for wind and southwest for concentrated solar. The high speed rail runs off the power and the cities on either end suck up the electricity from the midwest and southwest.

When the sun isn't shining in the southwest the wind will likely be blowing in the midwest (somewhere). The rest of the "big grid" load balancing is accomplished by central control of demand; special contracts where your dish washer or clothes washer is turned on or off by the utility to match demand curves (within certain hourly ranges). Same deal for charging your PHEV.

aloser said:

Better get ready to start building hundreds of new nuclear power plants to satisfy the demand if you expect to replace a significant number of fossil fueled vehicles with plug-in rechargeable electric vehicles.

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Even if that were correct (IMHO it is not), it would be preferable to fighting a long series of wars in the Gulf region over the dwindling supply of "precious" petroleum. Over dependence on imported oil is a huge threat to our security.

RI_TDI said:

The grid is not up to generating or distributing that kind of additional load without changes that would take a decade to implement.

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The DOE published a study in Dec. '06 that said if 100% of our existing vehicle fleet was electric, we'd be able to charge 84% of them with existing generation capacity and grid capacity. How? At night when the demand is 40% less then during the day.

dieselgrandad said:

...there is the issue of towing "stuff", there is a big segment of the population that pull recreational items, not practical w/an EV, or even a Hybrid at this point. These people are not going to give up their lifestyle easily.

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You are thinking that electric drive can't pull a big load?

Diesel-electric hybrid drive for trains? Submarines?

RC said:

And it all could happen within the next 20 years... if we wanted it to.

Too many powerful forces trying to keep the ship heading in the same insane direction though.

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Ah, yes... with well funded R&D, we could solve whatever technical challenges might remain and with incentives for rapid adoption, it could be done pretty quickly.

But... do we think the oil industry will fight a rapid decrease in their market propelled by government R&D plus incentives? I sure do.

ikendu said:

The DOE published a study in Dec. '06 that said if 100% of our existing vehicle fleet was electric, we'd be able to charge 84% of them with existing generation capacity and grid capacity. How? At night when the demand is 40% less then during the day.

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But you'd now be running generation capacity full bore 24/7, which is bound to shorten the lifespan of said generation equipment, with more devastating consequences in the event of a failure.

TurbinePower said:

But you'd now be running generation capacity full bore 24/7, which is bound to shorten the lifespan of said generation equipment, with more devastating consequences in the event of a failure.

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Change to wide spread electric drive won't be effortless. No doubt.

And... remember, it also will not be overnight. Our vehicle fleet now turns over in about 15 years ...and we haven't even started yet.

There will be time to accomodate new electrical demand and the changes in the way we manage and distribute it.

There are industrial facilities that thrive on steady state operation. Why is night time electricity cheaper today? Because those big thermo-electric (nuclear or coal) generation plants are not so easy to throttle back at night. If we tried to throttle back a giant coal boiler, you'd risk cracking the fire brick lining of the fire box with too sudden cooling.

How much energy are we wasting as a society at night because the power companies were desparate to use up some of that capacity? Ever seen one of those night time maps of the U.S.? We throw a huge amount of light into the night sky, way more than is really needed.

ikendu said:

The DOE published a study in Dec. '06 that said if 100% of our existing vehicle fleet was electric, we'd be able to charge 84% of them with existing generation capacity and grid capacity. How? At night when the demand is 40% less then during the day.

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I don't think this is realistic. First - fewer people have an Ozzie and Harriet lifestyle that would permit them to recharge on a schedule convenient to the grid.

Second, people are notoriously indifferent to the collective good when it comes to their personal transportation and freedom of movement (like, say urban Hummer owners) and the governement are enablers in this matter (who needs trolleys and trains - lets just build highways).

Third, we all agree that PIE is best for metro areas, but that is the place where electric utility infrastructure already operates nearest capacity and is most expensive, time consuming and difficult to expand. I seriously doubt the study got down to an adequate level of local load analysis to assure us we wouldn't have frequent local service disruptions.

The study was probably more on the level of estimating PIE loads by large areas, determining if there was enough generation and transmission to get the energy to that area, then tailoring some assumptions like how frequently and at what time they will be charged to get a maximum result.

Unfortunately the most likely failure will be at 6:00p on a hot summer night when you get home and throw the car on a quick charge because you have an errand to run after supper but you can't bear to turn off the AC. A few too many of your neighbors do the same and pop! goes the transformer. Nothing to do with generation or transmission.

Anyway I am not trying to argue against PIEs or PHEVs - they are a certain part of our personal transportation future. They need to be promoted, and vigorously. I just think we have to guard against overselling them because a strong enough backlash will kill them. Look at diesels - we are still living down those nasty GM V8 diesels of the mid '70's. I don't want to see that happen to electric vehicles.

TurbinePower said:

But you'd now be running generation capacity full bore 24/7, which is bound to shorten the lifespan of said generation equipment, with more devastating consequences in the event of a failure.

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I'm not exactly a specialist in powergeneration, but I know that complex machinery generally work best in constant regimens.
It's the changes in operating regimen required by fuctuation of demanded power that ages the generating equipment more than continuous operation at rated power.

Additionally, if you know that your generator will work at a constant poer level most of it's life, you can usually optimize it's design around that power level, and you normally get much increased lifespan.

Compare auto engines, that are required to work on a wide range of power and speed but wont't live long constanlty at WOT, to big marine engines that work on just one or two speed settings, but can operate at full rated power for many years.

RI TDI:
Thanks for the link. I've bookmarked it for future reference to use when the "but the turbines kill the birds" crowd pipes up.

ikendu:
First, sorry I missed you at the MREA Energy Fair. I was unable to make it again this year.

We build new, high speed, electric rail all across the U.S. like the superfast trains in Japan or France. In the right of ways, we build high capacity transmission facilities to feed power from the midwest for wind and southwest for concentrated solar.

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I like the concept, but as scarred and battle hardened ex-road warrior, I don't see good potential for HSR outside of a few areas. For example: For $257 I can hop on a plane in Milwaukee, and 2 hrs later I'm in NYC, and I can probably catch a same-day return and be home that night and sleep w/my own wife. A 200 mph train is going to take at least 5 and hrs by the time I get there my day is probably shot.

HSR works in Europe/Japan because over there 100 miles is a long ways (whereas here, 100 years is a long time), and people are packed pretty tight. Other than certain areas like the Boston/Washington corridor, I don't think you'll see enough ridership to make HSR economically feasible unless freight is a major part of the picture. Then I think there may be a chance.

You are thinking that electric drive can't pull a big load?

Diesel-electric hybrid drive for trains? Submarines?

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Well, we never pulled much w/ the subs, but obviously they can, or we'd still be using steam locomotives. But locomotive technology using a diesel to run a motor/generator, to power traction motors, isn't very practical for a vehicle. Right now the components are too big, a 150 HP e-motor is as big as a 150 HP diesel, and just as heavy. And you need something that can get you and the boat (camper, whatever) thru the intersection before the next light change. A breakthrough in super-conductivity would eliminate these problems but I doubt that will happen anytime soon. I think the best bet (for towing) is a direct drive diesel and gearing.

PIE is best for metro areas, but that is the place where electric utility infrastructure already operates nearest capacity and is most expensive, time consuming and difficult to expand

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It's also the place where the infrastructure is the oldest, and running base load plants at capacity all the time means more failures and more frequent outages.

There needs to be a paradigm shift in the way "we" view our vehicles. We use way to much HP for the job that needs to be done. The only diesel I can get in an F-Series Superduty Ford is a 350 HP, 6.4 L. And the most I can pull is 20,000 lbs, and that's w/ the F-550 chassis. But I can get a 425 HP class 8 truck (semi) and pull 60-80,000 lbs. Go figure.

Here's an idea...instead of fuelling stations dotting our highways and byways selling gasoline, how about battery stations? Running out of 'juice'? Replace the battery! You can swap out your dying battery from your electric car on that crosscountry road trip, for a fee of course, and be on your way with minimal delay.

Instead of selling brands of gasoline, filling stations would stock and re-charge certain brands of batteries. If the guy on the corner doesn't have your brand, the station across the street certainly will. These stations would be connected to the grid, providing them with wind- and solar-generated electricity, and they could also net-meter with their own arrays and enjoy higher profit margins.

Using the existing infrastructure of stations would mean that you'd never be far from a fresh, fully charged battery to power your spontaneous lifestyle. The land surface that many gas stations now need in order to accomodate tanker trucks could be used for solar panels instead.

Ok, so that's my pipe-dream.

StephF

BTW:

Has anyone here read a book called "Natural Capitalism"?

Of course.

StephF said:

Here's an idea...instead of fuelling stations dotting our highways and byways selling gasoline, how about battery stations? Running out of 'juice'? Replace the battery! (snip)(snip) The land surface that many gas stations now need in order to accomodate tanker trucks could be used for solar panels instead.

Ok, so that's my pipe-dream.

StephF

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Absolutely - what I've been saying for years whenever anyone scoffs at the limited range of electrics. Just have mfr's adopt a standard size battery pack, or a few, and swap it out when it's low on longer trips. I do it with my propane tank for my gas grill.

Presto - range problem solved.

Give me a 50 mile year round range in a refined electric car and I'll pay a premium for it. Just wish I could afford a Tesla right now!

I just caught part of this on CNN...did anyone else?

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/the-annotated-gore-climate-speech/index.html?hp


StephF

StephF said:

Here's an idea...instead of fuelling stations dotting our highways and byways selling gasoline, how about battery stations? Running out of 'juice'? Replace the battery! You can swap out your dying battery from your electric car on that crosscountry road trip, for a fee of course, and be on your way with minimal delay.

Instead of selling brands of gasoline, filling stations would stock and re-charge certain brands of batteries. If the guy on the corner doesn't have your brand, the station across the street certainly will. These stations would be connected to the grid, providing them with wind- and solar-generated electricity, and they could also net-meter with their own arrays and enjoy higher profit margins.

Using the existing infrastructure of stations would mean that you'd never be far from a fresh, fully charged battery to power your spontaneous lifestyle. The land surface that many gas stations now need in order to accomodate tanker trucks could be used for solar panels instead.

Ok, so that's my pipe-dream.

StephF

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It's a good idea. But, I personally think diesels are best paired and hybridized with compressed air as a secondary motive force. I wish we'd get serious about energy. How about some solar power towers please?

What I see as a positive is that more and more attention is being paid to alternative energy and that we may actually start to see some real change. More and more investment $$ are going into wind and other projects.
This is good.

StephF

This was in my local newspaper today:

Consultant tells state commission gas prices to skyrocket

Thursday, Jul 17, 2008 - 01:41 PM Updated: 02:47 PM


Robert L. Hirsch, of the Washington-based economic consulting firm MISI, told the Virginia Commisson on Energy and Environment yesterday, that $10 to $15 per gallon gasoline will be a reality in the years ahead and nothing can be done to stop it.
Hirsch, who has worked in both the petroleum industry and for the federal government, said the higher prices will be the result of a peaking of global oil production which is nearing or, perhaps, has already occurred. Oil production in the lower 48 states peaked in 1970.
The peaking of oil production will be followed by public panic and global recession, Hirsch said. Action should have been taken 20 years ago, to help allay the crisis, he said. It is too late now to avoid it, but but a number of steps can be taken to help ease the coming pain, including boosting production of non-conventional oil.
Read more about the first meeting of the General Assembly's new energy commission in tomorrow's Richmond Times-Dispatch.
-- Greg Edwards

wolfskin said:

I'm not exactly a specialist in powergeneration, but I know that complex machinery generally work best in constant regimens.
It's the changes in operating regimen required by fuctuation of demanded power that ages the generating equipment more than continuous operation at rated power.

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Very true, but that "optimum" band for power generation isn't 100% full load all the time, either. Unless the machinery has been designed for continuous full load duty, operating it in such a way on even an irregular basis is going to take a toll on such equipment. Thus why most industrial machinery has "typical service" and "severe service" maintenance profiles. Intervals on the severe service profile are shorter and and the serviced parts lists longer.

Additionally, if you know that your generator will work at a constant poer level most of it's life, you can usually optimize it's design around that power level, and you normally get much increased lifespan.

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Most of the present generation capacity, however, was not designed to operate at high percentages of rated output on a continuous 24/7 basis. When most of the capacity was put in, the contrast between day/night demands was even more dramatic than it is now, and the generation capacity was designed to accomodate this.

Oconee Nuclear, for instance, has increased it's night-time output and raised it's overnight operating levels quite steadily here in the last decade. A three-reactor power station, it used to go almost to the point of being "shut down" overnight because of such a miniscule demand in the largely rural region it supplies power for.

But with the growth of 24/7 businesses, the increase in the young "college age" population interested in a fabulous nightlife, and night-time expansion in local cities, their overnight power production has been raised to something like 500% of what it was fifteen years ago, if I remember my stats from the recent article.

Oconee Nuclear, by the way, turns 35 this year. It's been operating continuously for almost four decades, and presently has one of the safest operational records for a power generation facility in the United States.

Compare auto engines, that are required to work on a wide range of power and speed but wont't live long constanlty at WOT, to big marine engines that work on just one or two speed settings, but can operate at full rated power for many years.

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As I recall, the ratings for marine and industrial engines are different from automotive engines. Whereas automotive engines are rated for their "peak" power, industrial engines are rated by their "continuous" power. Two identical displacement engines, one industrial and one automotive, would have disparate "ratings" for their operational loads.

The industrial engines are "derated" to allow for semi-continuous operation at that power production level. And again, the service intervals are different, and the industrial engines can't operate at full power continuously for years on end, as they must come down for servicing.

dieselgrandad said:

...For $257 I can hop on a plane in Milwaukee, and 2 hrs later I'm in NYC, and I can probably catch a same-day return and be home that night...

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Ah... but how long will those $257 fares last?

And... as the airlines cut flights and therefore the time when you can travel become more limited... would HSR take on a new glimmer?

RI_TDI said:

I don't think this is realistic. First - fewer people have an Ozzie and Harriet lifestyle that would permit them to recharge on a schedule convenient to the grid.

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You plug in when you get home and all you know is that by next morning, your vehicle is charged. All of the timing is managed for you.

BTW... the PHEV makes all of this more feasible. If you always have liquid fuel as back up, there is way less worry about the state of charge of the pack.

RI_TDI said:

Second, people are notoriously indifferent to the collective good when it comes to their personal transportation and freedom of movement (like, say urban Hummer owners) and the governement are enablers in this matter (who needs trolleys and trains - lets just build highways).

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Agreed. And... how does that impact this issue?

The charging under the control of the utility will earn you cheaper rates overall; nothing to do with collective good.

All of the issues around electrics can be solved. It's pretty much a no-brainer when you consider running an electric is about 10% the cost of your typical 1.8L 4-banger engine.

That the electric grid can't handle it at night is bolony. BTW, that particular meat category I believe is pork-based not turkey. Speaking of which, I think the turbine engine "turkey test" is not for testing if the engine will still run but if the outer casing will contain the blades, especially the large heavy outer blades as they can potentially come apart, possibly tearing through the fusilage and perhaps a few passengers while the aircraft has a voilent depressurization. Anyway..... bbq turkey it is. LOL
http://youtube.com/watch?v=y2OS2pwrZTI (bird test slow-motion)

Ok, lets say I do the round-trip of 70km or 40+ miles. Figuring with the AC Propulsion eBox specs in mind.... that's about 1/3 or so of the battery capacity for my daily commute.... if I don't charge up at work... and I can... for free as I'm the BOSS! Ok, so 1/3 of the 32kwh capacity is about 11kwh or so give-or-take a bit. If you sleep 8hrs, you'd need about 1400w over that time. So it's basically like running a 1500w space heater overnight. Not a real big deal in terms of total grid capacity.

We North Americans are freakin PIGS when it comes to energy consumption. Look at our appliances. We replaced our washer/dryer with Swedish ASKO models. Believe it or not, our overall power consumption went down some 20% !!!! Yes, the pair was $3k but it's worth it. They heat their own water on demand, the washer only uses a teaspoon of soap powder (very efficient), and it spins the load dry over 1400rpm. This reduces the time in the dryer by half as the clothes are already mostly dry coming out of the washer.

All N. American appliances are terrible. Compared to European standards they use at least twice the power, the engineering is done by monkey's, and they typically last half as long. I think the reasoning here is "make it NICE and CHEAP". Well, quality costs something.

Vehicles.... typical european ones use 1/2 the fuel. Why do we need a 6.6L V-8 with 350hp in an SUV that usually just carries one soccer mom and a single child? How about a 3L turbodiesel instead? If the big 3 go broke... so what. I always wondered.... even a few years ago, why couldn't we get a 1/2ton pickup with a small diesel?? 1/2tons used to sell #1 compared to all other vehicles. I've been emailing Ford for years asking for a diesel 1/2ton. In England 2yrs ago I rented a Vauxhaul Vectra (Malibu here) with a 1.9L TDI... wow... tons of power, no smoke, 125mph. Here you get a pig gasser and no TDI option... why? They DON'T make what we want, they make what they want to sell. They can all go bye-bye for all I care.