Why I'm Doing Nothing Until 2018

WLV · Jan 23, 2017

I own an Audi A3 TDI, model year 2015. While I'm leaning toward a buyback, here's why I'm doing nothing until close to the 2018 deadline:

1) I get 50+ mpg on the freeway and 35mpg in town. I don't want to jeopardize that. I'll let others be the guinea pigs and let Consumer Reports figure out if there's any mileage degradation before I make up my mind.

2) Even if stage 1 doesn't change anything, who knows if that will be true for the stage 2 repairs? And then I'd be stuck with the fix.

3) I still have 2 more years of warranty, and I pre-paid for service. So, as the service manager said, this car will cost me nothing for close to two more years.

4) In two years there will be more choices when it comes to higher-mileage gasoline vehicles. Even now, the new FWD A3 has a revamped gasoline engine that gets better fuel economy than last year's model. In two years we may see even better engines, or more hybrids from manufacturers of vehicles that I'd actually consider owning.

5) According to the buyback calculator I will be getting essentially what I paid for the car, not including tax and license. So for the one time in my life, I'll have owned a car for four years that isn't a depreciating asset. In essence, I'll have had a car for free for four years, except for the cost of diesel fuel and insurance. That will never happen again, I'm sure.

Rico567 · Jan 23, 2017

Well, our NMS passat has over 52K on it, and it's 3.5 years old, so #3 doesn't apply, but as for the rest, we're doing the same thing, pretty much for the same reasons. Coincidence?

WLV · Jan 23, 2017

Rico567: there are two other factors, and the first is highly speculative:

1) VW must buy back or fix a certain percentage of cars by 2018. If they're not meeting that number it's conceivable, as others have suggested, that local dealers would add incentives to buy back, perhaps in terms of bigger discounts on replacement VW/Audi models.

Far from my major motivation, but perhaps an interesting side benefit.

2) 2015 models were on the cusp of new technologies. 2017 and 2018 models of the A3, if that's the route I decide to take, will have backup cameras, a virtual instrument panel as an option, front and rear parking sensors, Apple CarPlay, Homelink, and perhaps other options, none of which I have now.

TurnOne · Jan 23, 2017

I'd trade my car in on the exact same model 2016 or 2017 with driver's package.
I already have all the other options and love the car. 58k blissful miles with 48mpg average. I'd be willing to pay a few bucks to make it happen if required to close the deal. For now, I'll drive it like I plan to keep it forever (cleanliness, maintenance, etc).

CruisingWagon · Jan 23, 2017

I like your thinking, WLV. I'm doing the exact same thing. Waiting and watching.

dropnosky · Jan 23, 2017

Im doing a bit similar but more for the reason of paying off the loan so i dont have to share a buyback payout with a lender. The longer i wait, the closer to that goal. Dont see any reason for all the rushing about going on.

cane929 · Jan 23, 2017

Same thing here, mine is practically still new with 5200 miles. Waiting for the elusive Mazda CX5 Diesel.

donallen · Jan 24, 2017

WLV said:
I own an Audi A3 TDI, model year 2015. While I'm leaning toward a buyback, here's why I'm doing nothing until close to the 2018 deadline:

1) I get 50+ mpg on the freeway and 35mpg in town. I don't want to jeopardize that. I'll let others be the guinea pigs and let Consumer Reports figure out if there's any mileage degradation before I make up my mind.

2) Even if stage 1 doesn't change anything, who knows if that will be true for the stage 2 repairs? And then I'd be stuck with the fix.

3) I still have 2 more years of warranty, and I pre-paid for service. So, as the service manager said, this car will cost me nothing for close to two more years.

4) In two years there will be more choices when it comes to higher-mileage gasoline vehicles. Even now, the new FWD A3 has a revamped gasoline engine that gets better fuel economy than last year's model. In two years we may see even better engines, or more hybrids from manufacturers of vehicles that I'd actually consider owning.

5) According to the buyback calculator I will be getting essentially what I paid for the car, not including tax and license. So for the one time in my life, I'll have owned a car for four years that isn't a depreciating asset. In essence, I'll have had a car for free for four years, except for the cost of diesel fuel and insurance. That will never happen again, I'm sure.

I agree with you completely. I've been making similar arguments in this forum that the smartest thing to do is wait. I think if you understand a little basic accounting and statistical math, you come inescapably to the conclusion you reached, despite the Chicken Littles who would opt for the certainty of depreciation vs. the small probability of totaling their cars or an HPFP failure, forgetting that VW extended its warranty.

DanB36 · Jan 24, 2017

donallen said:
an HPFP failure, forgetting that VW extended its warranty.

VW only extended the HPFP warranty through the 2012 model year. Doesn't help anyone with a newer car.

PacCoastFwy923 · Jan 24, 2017

When you look at it from the perspective of totaling the car could swing largely in your favor, it's a wonder that the total = partial $ loss argument continues to bear weight.

MBfrontier · Jan 24, 2017

I'll be driving my 2012 VW Golf TDI DSG until there is some clarity on the fix. I've been looking for a replacement but I don't want to have to move up to a $50,000.00 plus to get the same performance/mileage. My Golf has 44k miles so I could be driving this car for many more miles if the fix doesn't destroy what we enjoy about this car. I'll wait and see.

2015vwgolfdiesel · Jan 24, 2017

WLV said:
I own an Audi A3 TDI, model year 2015. While I'm leaning toward a buyback, here's why I'm doing nothing until close to the 2018 deadline:
1) I get 50+ mpg on the freeway and 35mpg in town. I don't want to jeopardize that. I'll let others be the guinea pigs and let Consumer Reports figure out if there's any mileage degradation before I make up my mind.
2) Even if stage 1 doesn't change anything, who knows if that will be true for the stage 2 repairs? And then I'd be stuck with the fix.
3) I still have 2 more years of warranty, and I pre-paid for service. So, as the service manager said, this car will cost me nothing for close to two more years.
4) In two years there will be more choices when it comes to higher-mileage gasoline vehicles. Even now, the new FWD A3 has a revamped gasoline engine that gets better fuel economy than last year's model. In two years we may see even better engines, or more hybrids from manufacturers of vehicles that I'd actually consider owning.
5) According to the buyback calculator I will be getting essentially what I paid for the car, not including tax and license. So for the one time in my life, I'll have owned a car for four years that isn't a depreciating asset. In essence, I'll have had a car for free for four years, except for the cost of diesel fuel and insurance. That will never happen again, I'm sure.

Sounds like a good plan

Dr Chill · Jan 24, 2017

I bought a replacement already but I am using my 2015 A3 until the warranty is up in May 2018 and driving it 1042 miles a month for $100 a month insurance and $42 a year registration. Audicare for maintenance too. I drive 1600 miles a month on average.

jdyno718 · Jan 24, 2017

dropnosky said:
Im doing a bit similar but more for the reason of paying off the loan so i dont have to share a buyback payout with a lender. The longer i wait, the closer to that goal. Dont see any reason for all the rushing about going on.

BINGO!!

for me by the end of decision time, if I go with the buy-back, my loan will be paid off, I can sell my car for a lot more than it's worth, and the difference in buy back amounts now or later is at most approx. $800.

I could receive approx. $7,800 now after loan is paid off and would still need a car

or

I can wait and receive $17,500 later with my loan paid off, and buy a new car.

cane929 · Jan 24, 2017

Anyone worried about this?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...efe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.2f324c9fa26f

dropnosky · Jan 24, 2017

cane929 said:
Anyone worried about this?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...efe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.2f324c9fa26f

The VW settlement is a done deal being acted out now. Even if Cheeto Jesus were to decide to toss out EPA standards, that would be from the near future going forward, and VW was caught lying about agreed upon standards from the past.

S2000_guy · Jan 24, 2017

cane929 said:
Anyone worried about this?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...efe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.2f324c9fa26f

I'm not.

NSTDI · Jan 25, 2017

How much does more time and mileage effect your buyback in the US?

I have extended warranty on mine for 2 more years, the only thing on the horizon is a timing belt, I think that is due at 160,000?
Don

IA DPE · Jan 25, 2017

I was all set to turn my 09 Jetta w/ 145K miles as soon as possible due to HPFP failures. Even replaced it with a Q5.

Then.... my job changed and I needed a car in Charlotte, NC. I figure the Jetta is getting minimal miles/ week (hard on a diesel) but assuming nothing happens I'll turn it in down there right before the deadline and not have to worry about selling a car I'd bought.

Here's to hoping nothing happens to it in the 18 months...

2015vwgolfdiesel · Jan 25, 2017

cane929 said:
Anyone worried about this?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...efe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.2f324c9fa26f

Personally waiting for the results.

IMHO

Do NOT see anyway it will affect dieselgate buy backs or FIX

WLV · Jan 25, 2017

NSTDI said:
How much does more time and mileage effect your buyback in the US?

I have extended warranty on mine for 2 more years, the only thing on the horizon is a timing belt, I think that is due at 160,000?
Don

Don--as long as you stay within the settlement guidelines, neither time nor mileage affect the buyback amount.

In other words, given that I drive ~12K miles per year, I'll get the same amount of money in 18 months as I'd get today if I did the buyback.

donallen · Jan 26, 2017

DanB36 said:
VW only extended the HPFP warranty through the 2012 model year. Doesn't help anyone with a newer car.

Show me evidence of an HPFP failure rate in the 2013 and later cars that is comparable to the pre-2013 cars. VW made changes in the HPFP in 2013 and claims to have fixed the problem. There's a thread on this forum inviting people to post information about HPFP failures. The reports, and there are a lot of them, are overwhelmingly about pre-2013 cars. You can argue that some of that may be due to the older cars being ..... older

But informal web searches I've done supports VW's contention that their change worked (they wouldn't lie to us, would they?).

DanB36 · Jan 26, 2017

donallen said:
Show me evidence of an HPFP failure rate in the 2013 and later cars that is comparable to the pre-2013 cars.

No, as I'm not really interested in discussing that subject. Owners of 2013+ cars are still concerned about HPFP failure, whether rationally or not. VW's extended warranty only applies to MY2012 and earlier, so it will do nothing to allay the fears of owners of newer cars.

showdown 42 · Jan 26, 2017

As long as you stay within the mileage formula,the car is basically free to drive for 2 yrs+ any repairs that are required to keep it running. I am hoping there will be some better options when the time comes to turn it in.

NSTDI · Jan 26, 2017

WLV said:
Don--as long as you stay within the settlement guidelines, neither time nor mileage affect the buyback amount.

In other words, given that I drive ~12K miles per year, I'll get the same amount of money in 18 months as I'd get today if I did the buyback.

Thanks. We Canadians haven't been given any specifics yet, but coming soon................

S2000_guy · Jan 26, 2017

I kind of enjoy reading the "Chicken Little" posts about the HPFP failure. The Chicken Little crowd always posts something like "until the HPFP" fails; it's never "unless the HPFP fails." C'mon folks, "until" implies that it's inevitable within the time frame of the buyback. It is not inevitable that it will fail before 1/1/2019.

A clogged DPF won't prevent driving the car or selling it back to VWoA. In about a dozen states, it could create a problem if an inspection is due but absent that issue you just keep on driving until you can schedule the buyback. Yet the Chicken Little crowd regularly lists this potential failure as a reason to sell back today.

Going over 1,042 miles per month? What other reasonably new car can you drive and only pay the depreciation on miles over 1042/month? Nobody else I can think of gives you 1042 miles/month for free. Oh wait, if they drive their TDI over 1042 miles per month they'll lose some settlement money; apparently they have some comparable replacement vehicle that they can drive depreciation-free instead.

Because they are going to drive something for those miles.

ottomatic · Jan 26, 2017

I am holding out to 2018. Makes no sense to turn car in now.

Rico567 · Jan 27, 2017

showdown 42 said:
As long as you stay within the mileage formula,the car is basically free to drive for 2 yrs+ any repairs that are required to keep it running. I am hoping there will be some better options when the time comes to turn it in.

I think most of the points in favor of waiting until late 2018 for the buyback have been covered repeatedly, but this one is good, and is not considered as often. Right now, there aren't that many new cars that appeal to me, but there are several on the horizon that could easily be available by the end of the turn-in period.
In any case, I'm not going to allow fears of some sort of catastrophic mechanical failure occurring in that time push me into doing the buyback now. Our Passat only has 52K on it, and in 50 years of driving and close to 20 family vehicles, we have never had a major mechanical breakdown. I'll take those odds.

gearheadgrrrl · Jan 27, 2017

Based on my A4 that needed no repairs beyond tires and bulbs for the first 100k miles, I'm tempted to run the wheels off my '13 JSW and turn it in as late as possible. But after I took it to a VW dealer for an alignment and they did over $1000 damage to the rear suspension, I was wondering if I'd have to turn it in here in Florida and fly home to Minnesota. Fortunately a local indie shop managed to align it despite the damage the VW dealer did. But these are not the simple reliable cars our A4s were- There are a bunch of new vulnerabilities like the emissions system, IRS, and in my case, automated manual transmission. So if I keep driving the JSW to the bitter end, all the documents needed to turn it in at the nearest VW dealer will be in the glovebox.

DanB36 · Jan 27, 2017

gearheadgrrrl said:
all the documents needed to turn it in at the nearest VW dealer will be in the glovebox.

You don't have the option to simply turn in the car at will at the nearest dealer--you need to go through the claims process and schedule an appointment. Right now, it's looking like appointments are scheduling about 6-8 weeks out.

Why I'm Doing Nothing Until 2018

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