Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

bhtooefr said:

Also, Tesla will have a NFC smart card (think the same form factor as a credit card) that you can use as a key in lieu of the smartphone app.

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It better if they want me to buy one. I have no interest in owning a smartphone.

turbobrick240 said:

That maneuver will be more likely to send you off the ramp than the autonomous car behind you. The reality is the autonomously driven cars will almost certainly reduce road fatalities hugely. Hopefully without sucking all the fun out of driving.

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I ain't leaving the road...25 years of ice racing experience

The impact of self driving cars on safety is an unknown. Lots of theories, no facts. The handoff from the car to the human when the SDC can no longer cope is the biggest problem. Imagine a fleet of SDCs humming along on a bare interstate in winter while the "drivers" play on their phones, sip Starbucks and do other things you should not do in a car. Suddenly the fleet enters a series of turns shaded by overhead bridges and there is black ice everywhere. The car will want the inattentive human to take over. Good luck. All the "driver" will do is scream "Oh ****" right before the impact.
And nobody can code the car for every anomalous condition like that, no way.

And they will suck all the fun out. For the most part the proponents of electric and self driving cars hate driving. Musk hates it. CARB hates it. The Prius is a perfect example, it's a car for people who don't like driving and/or feel guilty about hurting the Earth. The only hope for enthusiasts is VW, BMW, etc... building fun electric and ICE/hybrid versions of their cars.

About the Prius .

https://youtu.be/FIN7Vc9rmaA

I suspect your attempt to brake-check the self-driving car would fail because the self-driving car would be going so gawd awful slow to begin with that it couldn't slow down any further without stopping.

The reality is that what little testing of self-driving has been done under even mildly adverse conditions, has only revealed that there is a loooong way to go.

I think a self-driving system's attempt to cope with this ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL5h3RrAj3I

... will simply result in this!

RabbitGTI said:

You are correct. I can see great entertainment brake checking one on an icy, decreasing radius ramp. We'll see if they coded for that. The biggest problem is all speed limits are too low when conditions are good. Everyone knows it including law enforcement. If self driving cars blindly stick to the speed limit they will be rolling chicanes under good driving conditions and dangerous under less than perfect conditions.

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RabbitGTI said:

The impact of self driving cars on safety is an unknown. Lots of theories, no facts. The handoff from the car to the human when the SDC can no longer cope is the biggest problem. Imagine a fleet of SDCs humming along on a bare interstate in winter while the "drivers" play on their phones, sip Starbucks and do other things you should not do in a car. Suddenly the fleet enters a series of turns shaded by overhead bridges and there is black ice everywhere. The car will want the inattentive human to take over. Good luck. All the "driver" will do is scream "Oh ****" right before the impact.
And nobody can code the car for every anomalous condition like that, no way.

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Correct, the impact of self driving cars IS an unknown - however, the impact of human driven cars IS a known quantity - and it isn't good - your above statement about speed limits being too low and the worry that cars driving the speed limit represent some sort of obstacle for your to zip around being an obvious indicator of such.

And, of course, the fact that a lot of states have been dumbing down drivers license testing and eliminating road testing couldn't possibly have anything to do with that . . . .

It really chaps me when expensive technology gets rammed down my throat instead of just accepting that some people just don't have what it takes to deserve being licensed, and denying them accordingly!

Note that opposing mass transit and urbanization translates to supporting licensing of bad drivers, for what it's worth.

Not really . . . all it requires is letting them walk . . . It's not societies problem to cope with an individuals stupidity or incompetence. Driving isn't a right, it's a priviledge, and those folks can always make an effort to improve. As it is now, there is no incentive for that to happen . . .

tadawson said:

Not really . . . all it requires is letting them walk . . . It's not societies problem to cope with an individuals stupidity or incompetence.

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It is societies problem to have the infrastructure to support a labor force... restaurants need waiters and cooks. Offices need clerks and secretaries. And the economy tends to suffer when shoppers can't get to the shops.

Even the 'stupid and incompetent' do serve at least one useful purpose... they're consumers.

tadawson said:

And, of course, the fact that a lot of states have been dumbing down drivers license testing and eliminating road testing couldn't possibly have anything to do with that . . . .

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You don't know what it's like until you have driven in Toronto, Canada. I'd swear that there are people here who were riding a water buffalo yesterday and are now driving a car !!!

nwdiver said:

It is societies problem to have the infrastructure to support a labor force... restaurants need waiters and cooks. Offices need clerks and secretaries. And the economy tends to suffer when shoppers can't get to the shops.

Even the 'stupid and incompetent' do serve at least one useful purpose... they're consumers.

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I thought it would have been 'padding out welfare' . . . Too dumb to drive often means too dumb to work . . . driving isn't that difficult . . .

Jetta_Pilot said:

You don't know what it's like until you have driven in Toronto, Canada. I'd swear that there are people here who were riding a water buffalo yesterday and are now driving a car !!!

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Texas dropped all road testing for new drivers, instead letting the parents decide.

Dumbest

Move

Ever!

So yeah, I probably have a decent idea . . . (and I've been to Toronto . . . ).

nwdiver said:

It is societies problem to have the infrastructure to support a labor force... restaurants need waiters and cooks. Offices need clerks and secretaries. And the economy tends to suffer when shoppers can't get to the shops.
Even the 'stupid and incompetent' do serve at least one useful purpose... they're consumers.

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Also note that specialization is absolutely a thing nowadays - you have a lot of people that are excellent at certain things... but driving isn't one of them.

I agree driver's licenses are FAR too easy to get, and FAR too easy to keep, and even if you do get it revoked, people will still drive illegally.

If we spent more on education and less on incarceration, we may end up spending less and getting more overall. But proper parenting needs to be in that equation, and that seems to be more and more in question.

CraziFuzzy said:

Correct, the impact of self driving cars IS an unknown - however, the impact of human driven cars IS a known quantity - and it isn't good - your above statement about speed limits being too low and the worry that cars driving the speed limit represent some sort of obstacle for your to zip around being an obvious indicator of such.

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Wrong. Look up traffic safety and 90 the percentile. Almost all speed limits are a tad too low for perfect conditions and too high for hazerdous conditions. Driver adaption to road conditions and traffic flow is the key to safety, not locking the speedometer on some stupid number as if it came from Jesus his own self.

Although, speed differentials add to danger even in good road conditions, unless very strict lane discipline is followed.

Also, we have the technology for variable speed limits, it might be advisable to use that in more places...

They tried variable speed limits on I270 here a few years ago. Millions spent, abysmal failure, pulled the [crazy expensive electronic] signs down within a year.

Local TV reporter nailed it when he asked the local gov't drone that put the ill fated program in: "So, if the speed limit is lowered to 40 when there is gridlock and people cannot go faster than 15 anyway, does that also mean that at 2 am when virtually no traffic is on the same stretch that the speed limit will be increased above the normal 60 MPH?" Of course, the answer was "no". And everyone continues to go as fast as they can and/or as slow as they can, so that the speed differential can be in the neighborhood of 30 MPH. Which is pretty big. Couple that with this reluctance to stay to the right and pass on the left, which causes the lane weaving and tailgating we all know too well, means that accidents happen pretty commonly.

But when the law enforcement seems to just have the tools and desire to target speeding only, nothing else, then... ???? I do not know of anyone who has been pulled over for left lane camping, tailgating, driving without lights on when required, driving with a cell phone in front of their face, changing lanes without signaling, etc.

bhtooefr said:

Although, speed differentials add to danger even in good road conditions, unless very strict lane discipline is followed.

Also, we have the technology for variable speed limits, it might be advisable to use that in more places...

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People's judgement has to be the variable speed limit and I have yet to see evidence that can be coded into self driving cars. In my line of work I have gone on ride along with local, county and state patrol officers. They care about safety, not blind adherence to the speed limit. As you say lane discipline must be followed. I have 30,000 miles of experience on a stretch of interstate that varies between 65 and 70 for speed limits. On the 65 stretch the right lane is 65-70 and the left lane is probably an average of 75 and faster. On the 70 mph posted stretch it's probably right 75 and left 80. The only people I have ever seen pulled over have either passed me at 85 + or they are driving 15 over on the stretches of urban interstate. The only hazard is when somebody goes the speed limit or five over, parks in the left lane and stacks up traffic. That leads to tailgating, passing on the right and other bad judgement. Now on to urban speed limits. I have several miles of two lane residential road to get from my house to the highway. It is posted 25. With low traffic and good conditions the average speed is probably 32 and traffic flows. Cops don't care. The only problem is the occasional idiot who insists on going 25 and stacking up traffic (usually my neighbor the hippie in her Prius ). Now here is the sticky bit. There are no sidewalks and when kids are walking to and from school there is a huge concentration of walkers and bikes on both sides. In this case 15-25 is prudent because of the congestion. I have been going 15 because kids are about to dart out and had idiots three feet off my bumper because I am sure they are thinking "the speed limit is 25" and they are not reading road conditions. The caution applies to the weekend also when there is a huge concentration of bikers and walkers. So, the question is, are self driving cars going to adapt to the conditions I described or are they going to move too slowly for traffic at some times and to fast for conditions at other times?

Chris said:

I suspect that self-driving cars will be very vulnerable to bullying.

Nobody around here knows 4-way stop etiquette--they just go when they feel like it.

Pity the poor self-driving car that will only play by the rules.

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4 way stops? Around here, they're putting in all these damn traffic circles. Even with no on-coming traffic, about 50% of the people stop for the stupid yield sign before entering the circle. Heaven help us when the circle has more than one lane.

RabbitGTI said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technolo...river-stranded-desert-smartphone-app-failure/

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I'm surprised that it's not a Bluetooth link rather than cell service. Although, I have a few things that are Bluetooth and they don't always connect if the phone is searching for cell service.

oilhammer said:

But when the law enforcement seems to just have the tools and desire to target speeding only, nothing else, then... ???? I do not know of anyone who has been pulled over for left lane camping, tailgating, driving without lights on when required, driving with a cell phone in front of their face, changing lanes without signaling, etc.

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Haven't lived there for over 20 years, but one of the few ways to get a ticket on the Chicago toll ways was frequent and fast lane changes. Rarely heard of anyone getting pulled over for speeding unless it was excessive, 15+ over the flow.

kjclow said:

4 way stops? Around here, they're putting in all these damn traffic circles. Even with no on-coming traffic, about 50% of the people stop for the stupid yield sign before entering the circle. Heaven help us when the circle has more than one lane.

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Oh man, tell me about it. I LOVE the roundabouts... IF people actually knew how they worked. Which, most Americans, do not. They'll know all about Caitlin/Bruce Jenner and what is the latest iPhone, and who is going to get booted off Big Brother this week though.

A PSA campaign would I think work wonders for things like roundabouts.

kjclow said:

4 way stops? Around here, they're putting in all these damn traffic circles. Even with no on-coming traffic, about 50% of the people stop for the stupid yield sign before entering the circle. Heaven help us when the circle has more than one lane.

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Around here, they've been getting rid of the circles.

oilhammer said:

Oh man, tell me about it. I LOVE the roundabouts... IF people actually knew how they worked. Which, most Americans, do not. They'll know all about Caitlin/Bruce Jenner and what is the latest iPhone, and who is going to get booted off Big Brother this week though.
A PSA campaign would I think work wonders for things like roundabouts.

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We are installing them in downtown Jackson(state Capitol) They work fairly well there. The radius is pretty tight since it is surrounded by existing buildings but it allows you to continue creeping at 15 mph or so which is about as fast as you could go in that area if you caught all green lights. The main advantage is that ,unlike signal lights, they don't break down. Since most government agencies don't have an adequate budget devoted to maintenance, as opposed to construction, that helps in the long run. We are also installing them along I-10 at intersections of two lane roads with the 6 lane interstate(for on/off traffic). The main thing to remember is that the tighter the circle, the slower the speed that it must be taken at. Well, it isn't "we" since I retired a year ago but we had already started the process.

The funniest one is the Diverging Diamond interchange that we built about mile 45 on I 10 before I left. It has signal light on each side but the shipping and concrete island have you switch from the right side of the bridge to the left and back again. That allows left turn on green to merge onto the interstate while keeping the property required at a minimum. You can see the *** expression on some people's faces but most don't even notice it. It is prewired for backup generators incase of hurricanes.

We have the reversing direction deal near the shop here, where Dorsett Rd. goes under I-270. It seems to work well enough, once you are used to it. They dubbed it the "Eurochange" here for some reason, not sure why. It is the only one around here I know of.

kjclow said:

... Around here, they're putting in all these damn traffic circles. ...

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There's a couple of them even in the tiny town of Concord, NH. I love them. Out of 20 problems I have with them, only 1 will be a putz that pulls out right in front of me when I'm already in the circle. But that's a common NH problem that I must have gotten used to because it isn't nearly so common now as it was when I first moved here.

The other 19 problems are the nut jobs who stop at the entrance, and won't go until the whole circle is clear.

Fortunately, I usually only hit them at low traffic times because my commute to work is only 15 meters.

Yay!

PH

gulfcoastguy said:

The funniest one is the Diverging Diamond interchange that we built about mile 45 on I 10 before I left. It has signal light on each side but the shipping and concrete island have you switch from the right side of the bridge to the left and back again. That allows left turn on green to merge onto the interstate while keeping the property required at a minimum. You can see the *** expression on some people's faces but most don't even notice it. It is prewired for backup generators incase of hurricanes.

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They put one of those in over I77 north of Charlotte. I've yet to find a reason to try it. I avoid that part of 77 if at all possible. It's where they decided to let the Spanish firm screw up the road with toll lanes and then feed five lanes to two in half a mile. Add to that Lake Norman is on either side so everyone slows down to look at the pretty lake, houses, and boats. At least they started charging the topless sunbathers on the boats that really screwed the traffic flow.

kjclow said:

They put one of those in over I77 north of Charlotte. I've yet to find a reason to try it. I avoid that part of 77 if at all possible. It's where they decided to let the Spanish firm screw up the road with toll lanes and then feed five lanes to two in half a mile. Add to that Lake Norman is on either side so everyone slows down to look at the pretty lake, houses, and boats. At least they started charging the topless sunbathers on the boats that really screwed the traffic flow.

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It sounds like the problem is not related to the bridge. The bridge that I'm talking about also connects the city south of the interstate with a major shopping area just north of the interstate without dumping more traffic on an already crowded section of I-10. A very clever and elegant design. Nobody can prevent the city on one side or the county on the other from digging up the roads leading to the bridge and running a sewer line right down the middle for example. People seem to act as a group like the lowest of the group.

kjclow said:

I'm surprised that it's not a Bluetooth link rather than cell service. Although, I have a few things that are Bluetooth and they don't always connect if the phone is searching for cell service.

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Yep. Of course, if the guy had just wrapped his key fob in aluminum foil a couple times and put it in a baggie, his wife wouldn't have had to make that long hike (and I'm sure she's never going to let him hear the end of it, either).

Honestly, this is the sort of thing that make me say *** about some of the no-think design choices SW engineers/designers make (and, as it happens, I am a SW engineer by trade).

The first question I would have asked at the meeting where this car key app was proposed was, "how do you start the car if the phone's battery is dead and you left the valet cards at home?" the second would have been "what happens if you're in a no-service zone"? (if you're in Utah and are interested in going to CanyonLands National Park, don't take a Tesla 3 - I remember driving down there from Moab during a vacation back in '08, and I remember it being nearly an hour after leaving the park proper before I had even spotty coverage).

Of course, the nimrods who came up with this app are probably too young to remember a time when cell phones were analog, calling plans were regional-only, and there were still great swaths of land with no towers...

You don't have to go to Utah for no service. Southern Iowa has pretty spotty service all across the state.

RabbitGTI said:

I was at Road America for the Historic Races. Stopped by the Tesla display. They seem kind of cheap and kit car like. One was $150,000 dollars. Guy says it does 0-60 in 3.xx seconds. That is Porsche GT-3 money. You would have to be out of your mind to buy that POS over a GT-3.

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It baffles me that there are so many people ra-ra-ra'ing the Model 3 and comparing it to a BMW or Audi. First of all, I got the same feeling you did regarding the build quality. And secondly, I only leased our eGolf because it was $16K. If I wanted to drop $40K on a car I would have bought a BMW or Audi. I think Tesla, and its cheerleaders, are in for some heavy dosing of reality once 2018 models start rolling off the line.

Rob Mayercik said:

Something else that crossed my mind after reading that is "so how are they gonna bill the owners of these things for highway taxes"? Since everything right now is per-gallon on fuels that they don't use, they're getting a free ride at the moment.

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A lot of states are contemplating EV taxes, but it's just a bunch of bull****. We pay through property and general taxes, just like other drivers. Gas taxes don't pay the majority of road costs. In California use taxes only cover about 20% of the costs:https://taxfoundation.org/gasoline-taxes-and-tolls-pay-only-third-state-local-road-spending/