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General Automotive General automotive discussion. This is intended to be a discussion about other not VW and Diesel cars you may have or interested in.

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Old December 15th, 2017, 10:31   #3901
nwdiver
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As mentioned earlier the "EV market" is ~1% of all vehicles sold. If Tesla holds 40% of that market, does that qualify as "significant" overall?
Unlike EVs made by the Legacy autos Tesla competes very well in the other 99% of the market too. No reason Tesla can't be 40% of 100%... not 40% of 1%.

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I think they'll hold a significant niche in the EV market for many years.
Do you mean the VEHICLE market?

This is what Tesla Employees see everyday they go to work... Teslas objective is not to just compete with other EVs...


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Old December 15th, 2017, 10:33   #3902
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Comparing Elon's next electric car to the truly amazing, and (actually) revolutionary iPhone is, honestly, an insult to Apple & the memory of Steve Jobs.
Another primary difference between the Apple iPhone and Tesla is that Apple's product is highly profitable vs. Tesla's money loser(s).

There are more global differences, but that is enough to mention right there.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 10:37   #3903
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Will Tesla sell 77,000 cars this year

.... there is a negative PE ratio

.... Big time negative


.... I was shocked to read how small wages they pay workers
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Old December 15th, 2017, 10:45   #3904
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It'll be interesting to see what effect the Model 3 has in a few years when it scales. Tesla doesn't compete with EVs. It competes with ICE.

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Old December 15th, 2017, 11:23   #3905
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Not sure where you're going with the strawman statements.

Hey now. My strawman may have a position available mopping the decks of his luxury yacht. That is if your strawman tires of hunting for part time work as a scarecrow.

Your perception of Tesla is getting the better of you.

Your misperception of Tesla has got the better of you


As mentioned earlier the "EV market" is ~1% of all vehicles sold. If Tesla holds 40% of that market, does that qualify as "significant" overall? Tesla may indeed grow to be a large fish in a very small pond.

The model T made up a small percentage of personal transport at its introduction as well.

Steve Jobs & Apple invented products that really did change the world. Elon Musk talks a good game but Tesla is no Apple. It's important to separate the wheat from the chaff. It's nice that Elon wants to go to Mars, and muses about an underground highway tunnel system under LA - but the reality is that Tesla is in the business of selling sells cars, solar panels, and batteries. I'm not making this up...it's all right there in a Tesla investor's release. Do yourself a favor. Read it.

Musk will have a far larger impact on society than Jobs- orders of magnitude larger.

Elon Musk & Tesla didn't invent the electric motor, and lithium ion batteries were around for decades before the first Tesla Roadster was built. Comparing Elon's next electric car to the truly amazing, and (actually) revolutionary iPhone is, honestly, an insult to Apple & the memory of Steve Jobs.
Henry Ford didn't invent the internal combustion engine or gasoline either. I think the memory of Steve Jobs will understand.

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Old December 15th, 2017, 11:59   #3906
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It'll be interesting to see what effect the Model 3 has in a few years when it scales. Tesla doesn't compete with EVs. It competes with ICE.

So you cherry pick all the models that DEcreased in that time. What about the ones that INcreased? Big sedans are not big sellers, and have been in decline for quite a while, the few that are still left. SUVs? Lexus GX and LX models' sales went UP. As did the GS. RX sales dipped, then came back up plus some.

US sales totals are not in for 2017 yet, but for 2016 the top 25 are motivated by ICEs (heck, the Jetta is #16!). The Prius was in there, but along with many of the models, was DOWN from the year before. And these are "cars". The trucks easily, handily, trump those sales. The Ford F-series alone sold more than DOUBLE the top selling car model (the Camry).
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Old December 15th, 2017, 12:14   #3907
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So you cherry pick all the models that DEcreased in that time. What about the ones that INcreased? Big sedans are not big sellers, and have been in decline for quite a while, the few that are still left. SUVs? Lexus GX and LX models' sales went UP. As did the GS. RX sales dipped, then came back up plus some.
US sales totals are not in for 2017 yet, but for 2016 the top 25 are motivated by ICEs (heck, the Jetta is #16!). The Prius was in there, but along with many of the models, was DOWN from the year before. And these are "cars". The trucks easily, handily, trump those sales. The Ford F-series alone sold more than DOUBLE the top selling car model (the Camry).
It's the best apples-apples comparison. This is the 'Large luxury' segment. People shopping for a Camry are unlikely to consider a $80k S-Class sedan. Someone shopping for an Audi A8 might.

I predict we'll see a similar effect on the Camry in 2020 since the Model 3 will be a direct competitor there.

The point is that the notion Tesla is competing for market share in 1% of the market is absurd. When you have a national fast charging network and >200 miles of range you're competing against ALL cars in the respective class not just 'EVs'.

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Old December 15th, 2017, 13:15   #3908
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It's the best apples-apples comparison. This is the 'Large luxury' segment. People shopping for a Camry are unlikely to consider a $80k S-Class sedan. Someone shopping for an Audi A8 might.

I predict we'll see a similar effect on the Camry in 2020 since the Model 3 will be a direct competitor there.

The point is that the notion Tesla is competing for market share in 1% of the market is absurd. When you have a national fast charging network and >200 miles of range you're competing against ALL cars in the respective class not just 'EVs'.
I agree.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 13:26   #3909
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Unlike EVs made by the Legacy autos Tesla competes very well in the other 99% of the market too. No reason Tesla can't be 40% of 100%... not 40% of 1%.
That's a stretch. Thus far, Tesla is only competing with the high-end price range of the market (and doing quite well at it). The Model 3 price-wise will still be in the upper range of the market. Yeah, they advertise US$35k, but you can't buy and get one at that price ... and it remains to be seen if they can be profitable at that price level. I'm going to guess that the average transaction price will be in the US$50k range, which is still in the near-luxury segment.

They are not competitive with mass-market sedans (Toyota Camry etc). Yeah, you can load up a Camry to be in the same price range as a base Model 3 that you can't get yet, but apples to apples ... they're not in that market segment. They are certainly not competitive in compact sedans (e.g. Honda Civic - which is perenially the best selling car in Canada). They are not competitive in CUV/SUV except at the very high end of the market (Model X). The mass-market segment (Chevrolet Equinox, Ford Escape, etc) ... nope. Compact (Buick Encore, Toyota RAV4, Honda CRV) ... nope. Pickup trucks ... nope! Vans ... nope!

By no means am I saying they never will be ... but as of right now, they're not, and I don't see the product coming down the pipeline that will change that before a number of other players get there first, including GM and VW and Mercedes-Benz and Nissan and Hyundai and Ford ... all of whom have long-range EV products expected on the market in the next year or two, and in segments not limited to sedans with mail-slot trunk openings.

There is no question that Tesla has the head-start on quick-charging infrastructure and that the mainstream auto industry missed the boat on this, not wanting to be involved whereas in the consumer's mind, the charging infrastructure has to go hand in hand with the vehicles.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 13:35   #3910
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That's a stretch. Thus far, Tesla is only competing with the high-end price range of the market (and doing quite well at it). The Model 3 price-wise will still be in the upper range of the market. Yeah, they advertise US$35k, but you can't buy and get one at that price ... and it remains to be seen if they can be profitable at that price level. I'm going to guess that the average transaction price will be in the US$50k range, which is still in the near-luxury segment.
I agree that Tesla has a way to go before it's taking significant market share from a $20k car. My point is that the market for a Model 3 type car is significantly larger than 1%... The average cost of a new car in the US is ~$33k. EVs are already at parity with ICE over a 5 year cost of ownership. As battery prices fall they should be at parity from day 1 by 2025. (Obviously Tesla will need a Truck to compete with Trucks etc...)

Time will tell whether the other manufactures will be able to change course quickly enough without losing significant market share. I suspect the idea that EVs are isolated to ~1% of the auto market goes beyond this thread and to some of the board rooms of companies like Ford, VW and GM.... History is littered with companies trampled by progress. Kodak invented the digital camera then kept making film for the next 30 years.

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Old December 15th, 2017, 13:54   #3911
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Musk will have a far larger impact on society than Jobs- orders of magnitude larger.
Wow, that's quite a claim - given dozens of other companies already sell solar panels, battery storage systems, and electric cars.

Is this about Musk's fascination about going to Mars? I'm not sure I follow the "impact on society" you're referring to. Please explain.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 14:06   #3912
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Wow, that's quite a claim - given dozens of other companies already sell solar panels, battery storage systems, and electric cars.
Is this about Musk's fascination about going to Mars? I'm not sure I follow the "impact on society" you're referring to. Please explain.

Call me a prophet, if you like. I won't go into too much detail, but Musk's accomplishments are/will be more comparable to those of Jobs, Wozniak, Gates, and von Braun combined than those of Jobs alone.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 14:28   #3913
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Call me a prophet, if you like. I won't go into too much detail, but Musk's accomplishments are/will be more comparable to those of Jobs, Wozniak, Gates, and von Braun combined than those of Jobs alone.
With all his personal life troubles, i.e. wives, divorces, 5 kids, more girlfriends, marrying and divorcing the same woman twice, etc, it's amazing he can hold his focus on anything very long. I'll bet a lot of people would like for him to be at the wheel of that car he wants to send to Mars.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 14:54   #3914
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With all his personal life troubles, i.e. wives, divorces, 5 kids, more girlfriends, marrying and divorcing the same woman twice, etc, it's amazing he can hold his focus on anything very long. I'll bet a lot of people would like for him to be at the wheel of that car he wants to send to Mars.

Hey, both Einstein and Darwin married first cousins. And Einstein was also a divorcee. Life is messy.

You're absolutely right about many people wishing he were going into deep space himself. Including foreign (and some domestic) aerospace industries, and anyone holding a short position on Tesla.
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Old December 15th, 2017, 15:10   #3915
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Call me a prophet, if you like. I won't go into too much detail, but Musk's accomplishments are/will be more comparable to those of Jobs, Wozniak, Gates, and von Braun combined than those of Jobs alone.
Interesting. I'm not calling you a prophet, and I'm sure as hell not going to call Musk a messiah.

I view Musk as the CEO of a company that sells cars, solar panels, and battery storage systems - again like dozens of CEOs from other companies that sell the same products he does. I just think he does it with a lot more flair than everyone else.

I merely wanted you to explain how (you believe) Musk is going to have 100X the impact on society that Steve Jobs did. You don't even have to go into detail - just a few of the main talking points will do.

It seems to circle back to Oilhammer's off-the-cuff comparison of Musk/Tesla with LRH / Scientology. What at first seemed to be such a ridiculous comparison seems so oddly aligned in their ideology.

Oilhammer, you broke my brain with that one. Well done, sir!
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