37 Parking Lots

An article in Reuters yesterday provided some interesting information regarding the storage of our beloved vehicles:
https://tinyurl.com/y86335ak
I would be interested in a description of the manner in which they are "routinely maintained in a manner to ensure their long-term operability and quality." Hmmmmmmm...
Also, it states that the buyback will continue to the end of 2019? Me thinks there is a misquote contained therein.
In any case, I have not yet decided if my 35K mile Passat will join the herd of it's siblings out there in the desert.

Jetta Knight said:

Also, it states that the buyback will continue to the end of 2019? Me thinks there is a misquote contained therein.

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Not a misquote. I believe the article refers to Dec 2019 based on VW buying back the 3.0L TDIs as well.

Is that deadline only for the 3.0 or, does my Passat get a reprieve until 12-2019 rather than this December? That would be nice since my bumper-to-bumper VW factory extended warranty continues until late 2019.

Edit - I just read a second article, dated today, in the NY POST stating that the end date is June 2019. What gives?

https://nypost.com/2018/03/30/volkswagens-graveyards-for-diesels/

3.0 and 2.0 are two different settlements, two different dates.

Get your 2.0 back to the dealer by the end of this year. Do some more reading it's all spelled out on VW site, don't believe a "media outlet" for what could be a very costly mistake.

Good to get some stats on the supply and sales rate for the bought back TDIs, with a couple hundred thousand still unsold I suspect the prices will drop further.

gearheadgrrrl said:

Good to get some stats on the supply and sales rate for the bought back TDIs, with a couple hundred thousand still unsold I suspect the prices will drop further.

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There's no way these get repaired and resold. To the crusher they go!

The news article says in February 83% were either fixed or bought back...that with the long delay for the Phase 2 announcement really has me skeptical that once 85% is obtained it's game over, thanks for playing. I doubt we'll ever see Phase 2.

ToffeeTDI said:

The news article says in February 83% were either fixed or bought back...that with the long delay for the Phase 2 announcement really has me skeptical that once 85% is obtained it's game over, thanks for playing. I doubt we'll ever see Phase 2.

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That's not how it works. The settlement is legally binding.

VW ain't (that) dumb...

CHawk said:

There's no way these get repaired and resold. To the crusher they go!

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VW's spent several billion $$$ buying back those cars, and if they can turn a profit at all they'll sell them. It costs VW a few thousand $ to do the fix and warranty the car... If they can wholesale it for more they recover some costs, so no point in taking a total loss by crushing the cars.

Jetta Knight said:

Is that deadline only for the 3.0 or, does my Passat get a reprieve until 12-2019 rather than this December? That would be nice since my bumper-to-bumper VW factory extended warranty continues until late 2019.

Edit - I just read a second article, dated today, in the NY POST stating that the end date is June 2019. What gives?

https://nypost.com/2018/03/30/volkswagens-graveyards-for-diesels/

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As is far too often the case in today's media, their understanding of this matter is incomplete, but they just report the mistake anyway— because they can.
The legal settlement on the 2.0 liter cars, like our Passats, was reached first. The deadline is this December. The settlement on the 3.0 liter vehicles (like some Touaregs and Audis) was not arrived at until later, so the deadline is a year later.
It's pretty simple, but the media still got it wrong. When it comes to the media, I'm to the point where if they say it's sunny outside, I'm going to the window and look before I believe it.

gearheadgrrrl said:

VW's spent several billion $$$ buying back those cars, and if they can turn a profit at all they'll sell them. It costs VW a few thousand $ to do the fix and warranty the car... If they can wholesale it for more they recover some costs, so no point in taking a total loss by crushing the cars.

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Yes, they'll fix and sell them IF they can turn a profit. Some of these vehicles might be prime-condition early buybacks, stashed in these lots before a fix became available. As the supply of buyback TDIs coming into dealerships dwindles, some of these might find their way back to VW dealers for the fix and resale, much as prime-condition vehicles being turned in now are being fixed and resold at the same dealerships where they're bought back.

The problem I see in getting these vehicles back on the street are two-fold:

1) What's the break-even point? Yes, there's the repair cost, transportation, dealer prep (including changing oil, performing overdue services, replacing brakes, tires, battery, and wipers, if necessary), advertising, and transaction costs. But potentially the biggest cost is the extended emissions warranty. You mention it, but it's worth looking at what the warranty really covers and for how long. Unlike most warranties that are X years or Y miles, whichever comes first, this warranty is for 10 years from original in-service date or 4 years from emissions repair, whichever is GREATER. A 100,000-mile 2010 TDI with the emissions fix performed in 2018 would be covered until 2022 or 150,000 miles! The warranty covers:
- the entire exhaust gas after treatment system, including DOC, NOx Reduction Catalytic Converter, DPF, etc.
- the entire fuel system, including fuel pumps, high pressure fuel rail, fuel injectors, and all sensors and actuators
- the EGR system
- the air intake pipe and charge air cooler, charge air temperature sensor and air mass sensor (HFM)
- the turbocharger, including the turbocharger damper
- the glow plug
- the On-Board Diagnostic (OBD) system, any malfunctions detected by the OBD system other than those related to the transmission
- "additionally, the engine long block warranty shall cover the engine sub-assembly that consists of the assembled block, crankshaft, cylinder head, camshaft, and valve train."

Note that this warranty has no deductibles, covers parts, labor, and taxes, and even provides for a loaner car for repairs lasting more than 3 hours. Unlike warranties that can be weaseled out of through arbitration or some other fine print, this warranty carries the authority of the court. Because of the warranty, VW takes a big risk any time they elect to repair and resell a vehicle, which drives up VW's costs for ensuring that any vehicle they elect to repair is mechanically sound.

2) Because these vehicles sitting in 37 parking lots are losing value and aging by the day, they have to be repaired and sold quickly. There's no way the VW dealer network could absorb and sell 300,000 TDIs in a short period of time (it took them years to sell that many when they were new). If VW were to do the repairs and wholesale the vehicles through a 3rd party, what effect would it have on prices of new and used VWs, especially with tens of thousands of 2014 and 2015 vehicles suddenly available at dealerships all over town? This would negatively impact both VW and their dealer network.

Thanks for all of the responses. Great analysis CHawk!

Has anyone run across a list of all 37 of the buyback storage locations?

CHawk said:

2) Because these vehicles sitting in 37 parking lots are losing value and aging by the day, they have to be repaired and sold quickly. There's no way the VW dealer network could absorb and sell 300,000 TDIs in a short period of

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I'd buy another TDI (say, a 2014 or 2015) if I could get a deal on one. Let them flood the market. I'll be a customer. With that sweet of a warranty, it can't be beat.

Some here are willing to buy prior to the final 'fix' ?

Why not? It changes nothing in the big picture . . .

CHawk said:

Yes, they'll fix and sell them IF they can turn a profit.

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I think we're likely to see most of the 300,000 sold at auction to independent dealers, who won't bother with doing any maintenance or other repairs. So as long as they can be auctioned for more than the price of the emissions fix and estimated cost to VW of the emissions warranty, and minus the cost of crushing/disposing of unsold vehicles, VW has no reason not to sell. No idea what the math on the warranty is, but I would guess the fix and warranty don't cost a whole lot more than the crushing/disposal cost (maybe a few thousand $), meaning VW would be motivated to sell at even a very low price point. Just a guess, of course. They also may be afraid of devaluing their new cars, so might not sell even at a small profit, if it would hurt new car sales... Lots of factors to consider.

My question is when will VW make a decision about selling or crushing the thousands on their lots....would that be after the emission fix deal expires next year....any guesses?

I think they are just taking their sweet time to go through their inventory. Maybe it's because they realize that fixing them all and dumping them all on the market at the same time would depress values, so they're just slowly releasing them as the market accepts them. TDIs were selling +/- 50,000 per year before, so it will take them a while to get through what they've got.

Or, maybe, there is no one who wants to make the big decision.

Or, maybe, they are intentionally going through them slowly, knowing how bad it would look in the public eye to have truckloads of these cars getting flattened en masse.

The "emission fix deal" has no end date relevant for this situation. There's an end date for owners to file for compensation but that doesn't apply to vehicles that VW already owns. If they're still sitting on one 10 years from now, they'll still have to fix it before they can sell it.

So the net effect of this entire sorted fiasco is a net positive for the environment?
Seems to me just building a complete new vehicle to replace one already in existence would create more environmental havoc. But I digress...

sohccammer427 said:

So the net effect of this entire sorted fiasco is a net positive for the environment?
Seems to me just building a complete new vehicle to replace one already in existence would create more environmental havoc. But I digress...

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This is the question I have been asking since Day 1. And I've never seen any environmental analysis performed by EPA to ensure that their requirements in the court settlement, particularly those prohibiting export, were protective of the environment.

Regarding sale of the vehicles currently sitting around the country, how long can a vehicle sit, outdoors, uncovered, and undriven, without significant deterioration? If VW has to warrant many of the components in these vehicles for 4 years after the repair, won't their financial risk rise the longer a vehicle has been sitting? Some of these have already been sitting for nearly 1-1/2 years. There's no way that VW will flood the market with repaired TDIs--the price would tank on both used TDIs and new VW vehicles. But the thought that they will be repairing some of these cars in 2020 or 2021 doesn't make sense. The cars will have lost thousands in value, if only because they're 2 or 3 years older, and the warranty will be more expensive because of age-related deterioration, not to mention that it costs VW money to store these vehicles.

I think we'll see a steady stream of these vehicles going to the crusher. I doubt more than 50,000 of the 300,000 vehicles currently sitting will get repaired and resold.

sohccammer427 said:

So the net effect of this entire sorted fiasco is a net positive for the environment?
Seems to me just building a complete new vehicle to replace one already in existence would create more environmental havoc. But I digress...

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That's not the issue. The issue is that VW broke the law and intentionally attempted to cover it up, and is being slammed hard for doing so.

Can’t these can be exported after the emissions repair is made? VW might get a better return breaking up the lot over multiple countries.

gearheadgrrrl said:

VW's spent several billion $$$ buying back those cars, and if they can turn a profit at all they'll sell them. It costs VW a few thousand $ to do the fix and warranty the car... If they can wholesale it for more they recover some costs, so no point in taking a total loss by crushing the cars.

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factor in the warranty which will be the unknown elephant in the room and could bleed vw a slow drip of substatinal cash, jsut look at how many heater cores have been replaced on Gen 1 cars not more than a few months after fix was applied.

VW will be cherry picking cars to let back on the market, to sustain sales and not tank the prices of them.

drsven said:

Can’t these can be exported after the emissions repair is made? VW might get a better return breaking up the lot over multiple countries.

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They are indeed allowed to export them as running vehicles after fixing them.

And then, to be sellable anywhere else in the world, they'd have to change over all the instrument clusters due to the Americans using a peculiar unit system that (almost) no one else uses, and for the one place in the world that uses SOME of those units, the steering wheel is on the wrong side of the car.

And they'd have to change the lighting, and prove that the various airbag and crash systems meet the differing requirements found everywhere else in the world, and so on, and so forth. The US EPA + NHTSA set of standards is different from the UNECE standards that everyone else uses.

And for the places in the world that don't care about all this, (A) the fancy ultra low sulfur diesel fuel needed to keep these cars alive might not necessarily be available and (B) those places generally aren't significant markets for somewhat expensive vehicles.

I'm not saying it won't happen at all but there's nowhere else in the world where there is a viable business case for taking a significant number of these cars.

Buying a car prior to the final 'fix' not knowing what this will be comprised of and not having any recourse should the change(s) adversely affect driveability/mileage seems nuts-what are we missing?

VW should have been given an award for producing and getting into the market vehicles that returned such incredible fuel economy-not only do we think no harm was done at all but when all is factored in; the lack of evaporative emissions relative to gasoline and the far less energy needed to produce diesel and the acceptance of bio fuels.....the Company got hosed big time plain and simple.

They certainly paid a price for breaking the law and lying about it. Might make them think twice about doing it again. Diesel and gasoline take about the same amount of energy to produce, btw. If anything I'd think diesel might require a bit more due to the extra processing required to make ULSD.

1.8 said:

Buying a car prior to the final 'fix' not knowing what this will be comprised of and not having any recourse should the change(s) adversely affect driveability/mileage seems nuts-what are we missing?

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You are missing that you are not required to have the fix done at all. If you are buying from VW, they will only sell you a fixed vehicle. In the case of the 2015 Golfs, if you are buying from a dealer it will already have the first half of the fix complete but you are under no obligation to return for the second half once it is released. If you can find a TDI from a non VW dealer that has not been fixed, you can buy it and and never get it fixed. All you are loosing out on is the warranty.

turbo-
http://e360.yale.edu./features/the_case_against_ethanol_bad_for_environment

When ALL is factored in, not only the direct costs of producing corn gas, but also the costs of making/using/maintaining the equipment, facilities for growing the crop and similar total costs of the equipment/facilities of producing the chemicals for the corn crops the true cost/energy needed of producing gasoline far far exceeds that of diesel, even bio diesel.

Certainly the significant mpg advantage is needed to make this true but still true it is.

demagxc et al-you are presuming that the 20 or so (?) States that subscribe to/with the wacko's in CA will allow re registration for what will be, in every way, shape and form-non compliant vehicles.

I suspect that more than a few will determine that the cars will become outlaws on the road until repairs are made and I would not be surprised if some acquiesced with proper additional payment-or in other words, you would get your very own edition of the VW hose job-count on it.

Close your eyes and imagine the reaction to those driving cars with the engine of death happily chugging along with the operator enjoying the local npr station?? when he/she suddenly realizes that the official people's sniffer mrap is signaling to pull over....

1.8 said:

demagxc et al-you are presuming that the 20 or so (?) States that subscribe to/with the wacko's in CA will allow re registration for what will be, in every way, shape and form-non compliant vehicles.

I suspect that more than a few will determine that the cars will become outlaws on the road until repairs are made and I would not be surprised if some acquiesced with proper additional payment-or in other words, you would get your very own edition of the VW hose job-count on it.

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Never going to happen. All states agreeing to the terms of the settlement cannot refuse registration to any affected vehicles. You can keep driving an unfixed TDI for as long as you want if you choose to.