Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

Eh, on Fuelly, the 2006 RX 330 is at 17.8 MPG across 12 vehicles and 82,785 miles. 2006 Highlander with a 3.3 gas engine is at 16.9 MPG across 18 vehicles and 267,665 miles.

The 2006 RX 400h is at 24.3 MPG across 36 vehicles and 688,945 miles. 2006 Highlander Hybrid is at 22.5 MPG across 29 vehicles and 716,774 miles. That's a pretty significant improvement.

As far as the current direct injection 3.5 liter powertrains...

2016 RX 350 is at 20.5 MPG across 22 vehicles and 137,612 miles.

2016 RX 450h is at 27.7 MPG across 10 vehicles and 65,285 miles.

I don't want to use the Highlander here, because the refresh to the DI powertrains was for MY2017, and MY2017s won't have seen enough seasonal variation.

I like the idea of a hybrid SUV. I've just never really liked the RAV4. Highlander is too big for me, although, that's the direction the wife is leaning. She thinks that now that we are grandparents, we need a vehicle that can haul the whole neighborhood. Well, at least four to six of us and a car seat comfortably.

On the small end, the Kia Niro is actually really interesting - very roomy for four people, decent cargo space - although I'm not a fan of their decision to use a DCT. No AWD, and I'd almost say it's barely a crossover, more of a tall hatchback.

As far as the Highlander... if you don't need AWD, and you're fine with buying a FCA product, I think the Pacifica Hybrid's the better buy. Much roomier, a third row that can take adults, more efficient, and you get a 16 kWh battery and can plug it in. And, after the tax credit, it doesn't cost any more than a base Highlander Hybrid.

I've driven the Pacifica as a rental. I have nothing against FCA, but I won't own a land barge again!

Kjclow, if Momma ain't happy, ain't nobody happy! I've seen this argument but play out among coworkers many times. Money permitting she is going to win. Better to give in gracefully and save the good will for your next grill/boat/gun etc.

The good will is for my next car/truck. She gets next choice because it's her car that we're giving back first. I hear that comment ad nauseum!

compu_85 said:

Right. The CEL comes on due to an increase in tailpipe emissions. Which is the whole reason for the CEL in the first place.

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My point is they did an e-test on the car's tailpipe, a rolling road dyno type test with the probe in the tail pipe and the cars in question did not exceed "legal emissions limits" in any part of this test at any time while the test was being conducted. But because the check engine light was not resettable it got an automatic fail!

The 05 Accord Hybrid was tested and passed all in law legal limits for the cars tailpipe emissions on a rolling road dyno tailpipe test the same as did my same year model 4cyl Accord.....

....I had to get that same exact test when we first brought the car here.....

The hybrid just a few days ago passed the same test my car took but because of battery failure has a check engine light that cannot be reset, a engine light in means Colorado refuses to give registration to this car which passes the actual tail pipe state e-test....

I do not know if this is happening in other states, but from Clean Colorado's own data there are currently ~200 cars today in the state that passed the actual dyno type e-test but fail to get certification due an un-resettable check engine light!~....

And I will give credence to the fact that most of us "here" could likely figure out a way to get the car to reset the light to pass the test for substantially less $$$$.....

But in my real world experience we mechanics are not the people buying these things, so the extreme costs for repair quoted are a real impediment to these owners having a reasonably priced derivable vehicle....

Keep in mind that Colorado is only doing the IM240 cycle, or even something less sophisticated than that if they're unable to do IM240. And, they're not sampling everything.

The car was originally certified on a much more sophisticated range of test cycles, though - FTP-75, SFTP US06, SFTP SC03, and NYCC. And, that also covers a wider range of emissions.

Also, a lot of hybrids were certified to lower limits than they absolutely had to be certified to, to get credits for use on other models, or later cars. Those credits don't help you if emissions have increased, but are still within the limits for "that year". That's why check engine lights are also inspected, for things that would increase emissions but not enough to violate a state's IM240 limits.

surely tho the CEL in not "un-resettable", the owner just hasn't spent the money on the repair. The same could go for ANY car...

The OBD2 protocols were put in place SPECIFICALLY for emissions compliance test purposes. I've been to school on that, it is very clear how/what/why the system is set up. It is all well documented, and most of it I am sure you could probably find online somewhere. I still have my textbook somewhere.

The IM240 is an outdated test (we used to have that). It is somewhere between the old BAR90 and the current OBD. Better than the BAR90 because it also measures NOx, but it is not as conclusive as the car's own OBD, which is why most IM240 test centers also at least check to see that the MIL works and that it is not on during the test, even if the DLC is never used.

The OBD test is far better, because it is less invasive, and allows the car to report its own findings, and does not necessitate any minimum wage hacks driving your car on a dyno and hooking up test equipment. The OBD also is able to check the evaporative emissions system (on gas engines) as well as any reporting done after cold start and during warmup. The IM240 test does absolutely nothing for those items. In fact, you can have a car running very poorly when cold, belching out many many times the allowable limits, taking much longer to get up to temp, having a misbehaving automatic transmission, have VOCs spewing into the air with a gaping leak in the fuel system, and the IM240 will still pass that same car with flying colors so long as once it is warmed up its HC, CO, and NOx is within check. IM240 is good at getting most of the gross polluters, but not all of them.

There is no such thing as a "non-resettable MIL". That is nonsense. If the MIL is on, something is wrong with the car and needs to be fixed. That is why the MIL is there in the first place.

Also, Colorado's rules seem to be:

If vehicle is 8 to 11 years old (7 years old for hybrids), run OBD2 test. If OBD2 communication cannot be established, or if readiness isn't set, perform IM240 unless vehicle is incompatible with dyno. If vehicle is incompatible with dyno, do two-stage idle test.

If vehicle is MY1982 to 12 years old, ensure proper check engine light operation, then perform IM240 unless vehicle is incompatible with dyno, then do OBD2 test. If not possible to do OBD2 test due to lack of OBD2, communication cannot be established, or readiness isn't set, perform two-stage idle test.

If vehicle is MY1975 to MY1981, perform two-stage idle test.

oilhammer said:

If the MIL is on, something is wrong with the car and needs to be fixed. That is why the MIL is there in the first place.

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Exactly. If the MIL is on due a torque converter lockup clutch failure it makes sense - extra engine load, extra emissions. Same thing for a faulty glow plug, since those reduce startup PM.

-J

rotarykid said:

My point is they did an e-test on the car's tailpipe, a rolling road dyno type test with the probe in the tail pipe and the cars in question did not exceed "legal emissions limits" in any part of this test at any time while the test was being conducted. But because the check engine light was not resettable it got an automatic fail!
The 05 Accord Hybrid was tested and passed all in law legal limits for the cars tailpipe emissions on a rolling road dyno tailpipe test the same as did my same year model 4cyl Accord.....
....I had to get that same exact test when we first brought the car here.....
The hybrid just a few days ago passed the same test my car took but because of battery failure has a check engine light that cannot be reset, a engine light in means Colorado refuses to give registration to this car which passes the actual tail pipe state e-test....
I do not know if this is happening in other states, but from Clean Colorado's own data there are currently ~200 cars today in the state that passed the actual dyno type e-test but fail to get certification due an un-resettable check engine light!~....
And I will give credence to the fact that most of us "here" could likely figure out a way to get the car to reset the light to pass the test for substantially less $$$$.....
But in my real world experience we mechanics are not the people buying these things, so the extreme costs for repair quoted are a real impediment to these owners having a reasonably priced derivable vehicle....

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TDIs are the same way. For example, you can get a CEL for a failed glow plug and fail emissions even though the cleanliness of the exhaust hasn't changed when the vehicle is operated on the road. Here in Virginia, you'll fail your emissions inspection if the CEL is on, regardless of what it's on for.

It sounds to me like your problem is with your state's emissions inspections (which, as I pointed out, are not specific to your state) - not hybrid cars.

Since NC doesn't do emissions insepctions on diesels, a mil being on will not fail the safety portion. My beetle pased for several years with the mil on for the glow plug harness having a faulty ground. My Ford minivan failed three times in a row since there was a coolant drip on one of the oxygen sensors. They could replace the sensor and drive around the block and the mil would come back on. They finally replaced the sensor and hooked up the test equipment while the van was still on the lift. IIRC, I retained ownership of that van for about a month after that.

We took my wife's 330 into the dealership for a recall yesterday. She found a 330e in the showroom and fell in love. I think the future viability of one of these soon showing up in our garage has already been decided.

The orange one will be in court for years when/if he tries to pull the CARB waiver. The Bush administration tried that - net result = EPA standards now conform to CARB standards.
The auto industry does not want years of uncertainty while the court case plays out. Then, maybe the orange one will just be on the short side of a court ruling (again). Imagine that, another so called judge, telling King Donald that he is wrong and may not do what ever he wants.

The auto manufacturers operate in a worldwide market ... and they also know that US elections happen every four years. They also know that the one and only way to get emissions regulators off their backs, once and for all, no matter what the whims of the current administration are, is to not have any emissions. (Yes, we all know that EVs simply cause the emissions to be "somebody else's problem" ... but from the auto manufacturer's point of view, so be it! "not my problem")

Changes in the USA to the regulatory requirements in the USA may have some temporary effect on the market, but EVs are coming. The Chevy Bolt is in production (not available everywhere yet - phased introduction). The Tesla 3 is months away from production. We've seen tooling for it ... it's happening. Those two are the game changers.

The Chevy Bolt is here. I test drove one last week and it's a very nice little car. Unfortunately, emphasis goes on "little," especially if you're a bigger guy like me. It has plenty of head room and decent leg room, but the seats are super skinny. I guess that wouldn't be a big deal for around town commuting duty and shorter road trips (which are exactly what the car was designed for).

I agree with GoFaster and John; EVs are coming and the current administration isn't going to be able to change that.

As long as whatever administration is in power doesn't mess with the pickup trucks, many of us are OK.

EV's may be coming, but like VeeDubTDI says, you gotta like driving in a phone booth, unless, of course, you can afford near $100 K for a dream machine.

Seems like around these parts, the only EV's I see are Tesla's and they are driven by women. I have NEVER seen a moving Volt and have only seen a handful if Leaf's (college kid's driving). But then again, this is in the great state of Texas.

I tend to think that once Tesla survived their trial by fire in 2009 and again in 2012/2013, on ongoing EV presence of some sort in the market became more or less inevitable.

Yes, the cars they are building right now are seriously expensive - but they are also amazing cars that many people want and nothing really compares to the experience. That means they'll be able to continue making a substantial profit selling to that niche market indefinitely. (Various surveys have repeatedly shown that a majority of Tesla buyers are spending far more on a car than they ever have before, stretching budgets to make it work and loving the experience anyway.)

It'll be really interesting to see if they can bring that same experience and enthusiasm downmarket with the 3, and if anyone else can/will build a real competitor. Apparently over 400,000 people are willing to put money down on the bet that they can bring the experience down market with almost no real information in support. Definitely interesting times.

No CAFE pressure, then why deal with extra $$$ to offer electric or diesel options!?!

aja8888 said:

As long as whatever administration is in power doesn't mess with the pickup trucks, many of us are OK.
EV's may be coming, but like VeeDubTDI says, you gotta like driving in a phone booth, unless, of course, you can afford near $100 K for a dream machine.
Seems like around these parts, the only EV's I see are Tesla's and they are driven by women. I have NEVER seen a moving Volt and have only seen a handful if Leaf's (college kid's driving). But then again, this is in the great state of Texas.

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Two points,.....

First is who will put out the ~$40k sticker for a spark if tax credits go away?

Second is, and this is a biggie@! Will auto makers continue to offer diesels in anything this time when CAFE goes back to almost nothing again that requires they be offered to comply with law & avoid gas guzzler fees???

For those who do not know they chose not to the last time CAFE was ended or cut to nothing in 1985? Within one model year 86-87 we went from a real world CAFE of ~40mpgUS with all offerings sold with a fuel sipping diesel engine to no diesels sold in anything when requirements dropped to ~24mpgUS in 1987....

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Now if the orange one gets his way he has made it clear he would like to do this again taking away the current pressures of CAFE which has forced even hold out Ford to introduce a diesel option in their light duty class pickups. This requirement goes away will we even see this diesel option>>>???<<<<

GoFaster said:

The Chevy Bolt is in production (not available everywhere yet - phased introduction). The Tesla 3 is months away from production. We've seen tooling for it ... it's happening. Those two are the game changers.

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Brian, I think you may not have been keeping up with current events. Go to the mychevybolt forum and poke around a little. You'll see a bunch of owners complaining about shoddy build quality, and a host of other issues. Check out this 28 page thread about how brutal its skinny 17-inch seats are:

http://www.mychevybolt.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5675

The Bolt is not a game changer, and from hanging around that forum, that catch phrase is seldom being used anymore. Reality is setting in, and even it's biggest fan-boys on that board have come to accept the car for what it is - a cheap small car that costs 40 grand.

Also, the Bolt is only selling about 1000 units per month - nowhere near on track for the 30-60K annual volume predictions. For all the hype a couple months back, there is a lot of inventory sitting on Chevy dealer lots. Sure, the Bolt isn't offered in all markets, but California and Oregon are two of the biggest markets, with the infrastructure (and extra tax incentives) to support them.

Don't get me wrong, I love my EV and it's the perfect tool for it's job in being a fantastic city car. One day, more than 1% of the car buying public may go electric, but a cheap (yet expensive) EV with a big battery isn't going to move the needle. The car itself still matters, it isn't enough that it's electric.

17" seating is cramped coach in a jetliner. That's three across, both sides in a 737. Ask me how I know after 35 years of business travel.

aja8888 said:

As long as whatever administration is in power doesn't mess with the pickup trucks, many of us are OK.
EV's may be coming, but like VeeDubTDI says, you gotta like driving in a phone booth, unless, of course, you can afford near $100 K for a dream machine.
Seems like around these parts, the only EV's I see are Tesla's and they are driven by women. I have NEVER seen a moving Volt and have only seen a handful if Leaf's (college kid's driving). But then again, this is in the great state of Texas.

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Eh - not all of them are like driving phone booths. My roommate's LEAF is actually really nice to drive around town... torquey, comfortable, nimble in traffic, lots of room inside, etc. If you like the styling of the Tesla Model S, there are plenty of used and CPO examples (with warranties) that can be had for $40K-60K.

And then there's the e-Golf, which is exactly like driving in a Golf, because it's a Golf. (I wouldn't buy one, but it is a thing.)

bhtooefr said:

And then there's the e-Golf, which is exactly like driving in a Golf, because it's a Golf. (I wouldn't buy one, but it is a thing.)

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My TDi golf beats any EV


Not to mention the range differential (and cost)

2015vwgolfdiesel said:

My TDi golf beats any EV
Not to mention the range differential (and cost)

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Beats how? Performance? Range? Cost per mile in energy/fuel costs? Lifecycle emissions?

=VeeDubTDI;5252482 <snip>

. If you like the styling of the Tesla Model S, there are plenty of used and CPO examples (with warranties) that can be had for $40K-60K.

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40K ~~ 60K (USED)

..... Lot's of coin

the best of the current electrics are useless for crossing the plains region....

2015vwgolfdiesel said:

My TDi golf beats any EV
Not to mention the range differential (and cost)

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Lets see.....

Golf DSG ~ 600 miles between fills non-stop/ manual ~800 miles between fills non-stop.....

Maximum range of the leaf or bolt in optimal weather !@! real world highway speeds over western US terrain~80-120 miles(1 1/2 to 1 1/4 Hr max)......shorter ranges outside of optimal weather conditions..

Compared to @ the real world today speeds of 75-80-85 mph over those 600-800 miles non-stop in a Golf TDI-CR(which I have done many times in these going from Denver to one of the regions other major cities).....

7 1/2 - 8 hr (DSG) to 10 - 10 2/3 hr (manual) non-stop with out fill....

Compared to a stop required every 1 to 1 1/4 hrs @ an optimistic 80-120 miles between a minimum of ~0:40 mins to recharge if a supercharger in on your route off of one of the regions interstates in the western US where I cross with regularity.....

That equated to under optimal conditions that trip from Denver to KC or Salt lake going from an easy 8-10 hour drive non-stop in a TDI to that drive now costing an extra 5- 6 1/3 hrs~ 13 to 16 1/3 hrs to get from one city to another making this drive now stretch out into an over night drive requiring at a two nights in a hotel there & back just to get there & back!

Not acceptable to most in this region......So with one of these I would have to own this thing for local driving and a diesel to get anywhere else, how will that ever make sense to a resident of this region????