Sound Off on Current Diesel Price

aja8888

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John: I have been asking our oil & gas clients what's going on with the local price of D2 and have gotten no good answers. Everyone is blaming each other (marketing, refining, distribution, etc.). I guess it is one of those Big Secrets you never get the scoop on.:eek:
 

TornadoRed

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RI_TDI said:
TornadoRed - you talk in industry-speak, so I'll ask you why you think the D2 now sells at such a crazy premium relative to RUG/PUG?

In Sep D2 was ~121%*RUG, now its like 160%*RUG. With this same proportion, when RUG hits $4 again, the D2 would be $6.40.

They come from equal-cost barrels of crude and the D2 process didn't suddenly get that much more expensive. Sure, winter heating season causes a bump when refineries make seasonal production adjustments, but on a percentage basis this is I think unprecedented.
RI, I've gone through this exercise many times over the last six month, you can search for longer and more complete explanations.

You are comparing prices at the pump, which include lots of taxes that have not come down at all. And other fixed costs with barely change.

Crude oil is down about 65% from its peak in early July. Gasoline is down $2.40 or about 67%; heating oil is down $2.50 but only down about 59%, starting from a higher level as it did.

I suggest that it will be easier for you to understand if you concentrate on spot, rack, wholesale, or futures prices -- comparing gas and HO to each other, then comparing ULSD with HO, and only later looking at pump prices versus the spot prices.
 

RI_TDI

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TornadoRed said:
You are comparing prices at the pump,..
..aren't these the ones that count?

TornadoRed said:
...which include lots of taxes that have not come down at all. And other fixed costs with barely change.
...but if they're fixed, they didn't go up last summer either. I get it that a fixed overhead will represent a different fraction of pump price as it rises and falls, but fixed overheads have changed dramatically in the last year, right? I don't recall D2 ever being 160% of RUG, seasonal variations notwithstanding. That is the basis for my question.

TornadoRed said:
I suggest that it will be easier for you to understand if you concentrate on spot, rack, wholesale, or futures prices -- comparing gas and HO to each other, then comparing ULSD with HO, and only later looking at pump prices versus the spot prices.
I appreciate your recommendation. There are two ways to find out what you want to know: 1) ask someone who knows, or 2) go and find out for yourself. I have a Biopharma plant to finish and can't afford the time to study up so I chose #1. I can also appreciate that you may similarly not have the time to tell the whole story, again. I was just asking for a reality check from a trusted source on what I thought was an anomaly. Are you saying its not anomalous?
 

TornadoRed

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RI_TDI said:
I was just asking for a reality check from a trusted source on what I thought was an anomaly. Are you saying its not anomalous?
It is what it is.

To use an extreme example. Assume two products, priced at $10 and $12. Then assume that each drops $8 in price. Now one is $2 and the other is $4. Previously the price difference didn't seem significant, but now one is double the price of the other.
 

Thunderstruck

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The price is higher than gasoline because it's planting season. No wait, that's the spring time justification. There's a hurricane on the way. oops, hurricane season is over. People are stocking up on HHO. Yea, that's a good excuse.
 

aja8888

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Thunderstruck said:
The price is higher than gasoline because it's planting season. No wait, that's the spring time justification. There's a hurricane on the way. oops, hurricane season is over. People are stocking up on HHO. Yea, that's a good excuse.
No, it's probably because we are in a recession and there are less trucks on the road...;)
 

john.jackson9213

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Personally, I think the demand for diesel is less elastic than the price of RUG.

From what I hear, the demand for RUG is down about 5%.

Have not heard how much the demand for D2 and HHO is down. I suspect folks in the NorthEast still need to fill their oil tanks and trucks still need to take lots of freight to stores. So D2 demand will not fall till after Thanksgiving, Christmas and near the end of winter in the North East.

Demand in Europe for Diesel should fall also, perhaps a little faster because so many cars use D2.
 

trapperkeeper

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just plain greed, that's all

RUL = $1.93
D2 = $2.99

Diesel is now more than 50% more in the NE. You drive a diesel and are getting better mpg so what can the oil co's, refineries, gas stations, and gov'ts do? Make sure that you pay more so they get the same amount of profit no matter what. And make a killing from all the trucks/boats/trains that are the much larger users of diesel. Only "fix" for this is to drive a hybrid. Gas will always get the mindshare of the public and the gov't. Nobody gives a damn about the price of diesel. The minute passenger diesel owners can't do anything and costs from industry just get passed along to the end user. Anyone who thinks that this is an "anomoly" and that RUL and diesel will ever be the same again is wrong. As I've stated in 3+ years of diesel ownership, each year the delta has grown and now it's absurd. There are a million excuses that have always been BS and the bottom line in the US is $$. Next car without a doubt will not be a diesel. Right now it's been parked for 3 weeks while I drive my larger Subaru Forester that gets eqivalent cost per mile accounting for the 52% premium over RUL plus the additional $.10/gal for the winter anti-fuel gel that I don't need with the Forester. All I can say is thank God I dumped my Golf TDI for big bucks in April since the Jetta isn't worth crap in this economy and the way high D2 cost.
 
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rotarykid

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1997 Passat TDI White,99.5 Blue Jetta TDI
Don't Worry Be happy .......................

All this crying over the difference today of the price of RUG & D2 is just silly to the extreme . In all the years I've been driving Diesels there has not ever been a fall without a price spike in difference . If the spike is killing you , yeah right just buy a few containers to purchase a quantity of D2 when it is always at it's lowest during late summer to get you through the fall HHO related price spike .

And COME ON PEOPLE , using this RUG price fall this year makes even less sense as an excuse to unload your diesel .

WE all know that RUG use has dropped to decades lows from the economic down turn not other forces . And the $4 a gal price shock last summer to all the idiots in their gas guzzling SUVs & Pickup trucks is why there has been such a extreme reduction in driving which has lead directly to a RUG price plummet . This extremely bad economy related RUG price drop is temporary at best , it would be kind of dumb to use it as a barometer on what fuel one should use in the future . D2 hasn't seen such a reduction in use as it isn't as tied to dumb Americans driving around in diesel guzzling vehicles , :D .


The economy will get going again causing the price to go up ON BOTH and the difference % will get closer again at some point . It just a reflex reaction not a rational one to be all up in arms over the temporary difference . The BIG Picture is where one should look , not the little one that many seem to be focused on .

Many of us have always been at a price disadvantage with D2 only rarely if ever cheaper than RUG . There IS NOT A SINGLE gasser , hybrids included that can do what a diesel can do . I can go coast to coast @ 75-85 mph and still see ~50 mpgs and that is from one of the very limited light duty diesels ever sold here . I consistently see mid to high 50s in my ~2 ton Passat TDI on city loops . If we had one of those 3 cyl TDI powered Polos here this would be a mute argument shutting up all the whiners , we can only dream though at this point .

I came to the diesel LIGHT some 30 years ago and have saved tens of hundreds of dollars and of barrels of oil over the years . For me at least in the areas I've lived in D2 has always between MID & PUG . I don't even look at the RUG price , I don't own a gasser don't want one . But I have paid as low as $2.35 for D2 in the last month . A price that is 1/2 what it was on a few weeks ago .

This short term extreme price difference in no way discourages me from getting behind the wheel of my fuel sipping diesel . And it shouldn't you , Remember BIG PICTURE not the little picture ...........:D .

Haave a great weekend all .........
 

McBrew

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with D2 only rarely if ever cheaper than RUG .
Not around here. I have only driven diesel cars for the last 17 years, but for the first 10 of those, diesel was almost always cheaper than RUG by about 5-10%.

just buy a few containers to purchase a quantity of D2 when it is always at it's lowest during late summer to get you through the fall HHO related price spike .
That sure wasn't the case this year.

I'm up in PA to visit the inlaws for Thanksgiving and I'm glad we drove the Civic... gas is $1.79 and diesel is $3.19 up here!
 

TornadoRed

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lovemybug said:
Anybody think prices have leveled off or are they going to increase/decrease more than they are?
I think they have leveled off, at least, and I said so two days ago in this thread:
http://forums.tdiclub.com/showpost.php?p=2359214&postcount=2262

I don't see any significant increases coming up, though I've heard that a little bump in the spot and futures prices for RUG have already shown up at the pumps. Some folks reported 10-20 cent increases already. The market did close about 18 cents higher than last Friday, but I think that was mostly the result of thin holiday trading.

Distillate prices are only about 2-4 cents higher than last Friday.
 

Tarbe

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FWIW, one of the refiners I buy kerosene from said that the US is exporting diesel to Europe and Europe is dumping Rug here. That was his explanation for the price differential.

Could have some merit....

Oh wait...that would argue for that supply/demand thing that FL2AK-tdi says is a bunch of hooey...so that can't be it. :)
 

McBrew

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Tarbe said:
FWIW, one of the refiners I buy kerosene from said that the US is exporting diesel to Europe and Europe is dumping Rug here. That was his explanation for the price differential.

Could have some merit....

Oh wait...that would argue for that supply/demand thing that FL2AK-tdi says is a bunch of hooey...so that can't be it. :)
This has been the case for a while now... ummm... I mean your first point about import/export... not that FL2AK is full of hooey ;).
 

earlthepearl

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Cheep!?

U.S. 220 N., Martinsville, VA, last week Wednesday, ulsd $2.39, rug $1.69. Get it while its cheap. Can't last long.;)
 

jvance

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Filled at Love's Truck Stop at 6th Street and I-40 in Albuquerque. RUG $1.67, "up to" B5 $2.27
 

trapperkeeper

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rotarykid said:
All this crying over the difference today of the price of RUG & D2 is just silly to the extreme . In all the years I've been driving Diesels there has not ever been a fall without a price spike in difference . If the spike is killing you , yeah right just buy a few containers to purchase a quantity of D2 when it is always at it's lowest during late summer to get you through the fall HHO related price spike .

And COME ON PEOPLE , using this RUG price fall this year makes even less sense as an excuse to unload your diesel .

WE all know that RUG use has dropped to decades lows from the economic down turn not other forces . And the $4 a gal price shock last summer to all the idiots in their gas guzzling SUVs & Pickup trucks is why there has been such a extreme reduction in driving which has lead directly to a RUG price plummet . This extremely bad economy related RUG price drop is temporary at best , it would be kind of dumb to use it as a barometer on what fuel one should use in the future . D2 hasn't seen such a reduction in use as it isn't as tied to dumb Americans driving around in diesel guzzling vehicles , :D .


The economy will get going again causing the price to go up ON BOTH and the difference % will get closer again at some point . It just a reflex reaction not a rational one to be all up in arms over the temporary difference . The BIG Picture is where one should look , not the little one that many seem to be focused on .

Many of us have always been at a price disadvantage with D2 only rarely if ever cheaper than RUG . There IS NOT A SINGLE gasser , hybrids included that can do what a diesel can do . I can go coast to coast @ 75-85 mph and still see ~50 mpgs and that is from one of the very limited light duty diesels ever sold here . I consistently see mid to high 50s in my ~2 ton Passat TDI on city loops . If we had one of those 3 cyl TDI powered Polos here this would be a mute argument shutting up all the whiners , we can only dream though at this point .

I came to the diesel LIGHT some 30 years ago and have saved tens of hundreds of dollars and of barrels of oil over the years . For me at least in the areas I've lived in D2 has always between MID & PUG . I don't even look at the RUG price , I don't own a gasser don't want one . But I have paid as low as $2.35 for D2 in the last month . A price that is 1/2 what it was on a few weeks ago .

This short term extreme price difference in no way discourages me from getting behind the wheel of my fuel sipping diesel . And it shouldn't you , Remember BIG PICTURE not the little picture ...........:D .

Haave a great weekend all .........
The BIG PICTURE, huh? 3+ years of diesel ownership and the spread has increased each year making the diesel less efficient in cost per mile. Only time I saw diesel at parity was right after Katrina. The BIG PICTURE is that hybrids are going to dominate in the US over the next 5 years and diesel will die a fairly fast death except for a few hobbiests. Doesn't take much math to figure out that lower RUL fuel cost and equivalent cost per mile with similar up front costs between hybrid and gasser means no diesel. As I stated, the majority doesn't care about diesel in the US and that won't change. Sad, but true. That's the BIG PICTURE. People were flaming me 6months ago when I - correctly - predicted $1+ deltas this winter between diesel and RUL. I would like to be wrong, believe me. My diesel is essentially parked since it costs more to operate and is a PITA in the winter vs. my gasser. Before the lower cost to run it made up for the stuff I had to put up with like potential fuel gelling, limited initial heat, crappy pumps and limited pumps due to the MK5 nozzle issue. Not now, it's just a reminder that I made the way wrong choice.
 

Bob_Fout

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Indiana
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trapperkeeper said:
The BIG PICTURE, huh? 3+ years of diesel ownership and the spread has increased each year making the diesel less efficient in cost per mile. Only time I saw diesel at parity was right after Katrina. The BIG PICTURE is that hybrids are going to dominate in the US over the next 5 years and diesel will die a fairly fast death except for a few hobbiests. Doesn't take much math to figure out that lower RUL fuel cost and equivalent cost per mile with similar up front costs between hybrid and gasser means no diesel. As I stated, the majority doesn't care about diesel in the US and that won't change. Sad, but true. That's the BIG PICTURE. People were flaming me 6months ago when I - correctly - predicted $1+ deltas this winter between diesel and RUL. I would like to be wrong, believe me. My diesel is essentially parked since it costs more to operate and is a PITA in the winter vs. my gasser. Before the lower cost to run it made up for the stuff I had to put up with like potential fuel gelling, limited initial heat, crappy pumps and limited pumps due to the MK5 nozzle issue. Not now, it's just a reminder that I made the way wrong choice.
Sell your TDI now before it gets worse:eek:

Appliances can be purchased at your nearest wal-mart or sears.
 

rotarykid

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trapperkeeper said:
The BIG PICTURE, huh? 3+ years of diesel ownership and the spread has increased each year making the diesel less efficient in cost per mile. Only time I saw diesel at parity was right after Katrina. The BIG PICTURE is that hybrids are going to dominate in the US over the next 5 years and diesel will die a fairly fast death except for a few hobbiests. Doesn't take much math to figure out that lower RUL fuel cost and equivalent cost per mile with similar up front costs between hybrid and gasser means no diesel. As I stated, the majority doesn't care about diesel in the US and that won't change. Sad, but true. That's the BIG PICTURE. People were flaming me 6months ago when I - correctly - predicted $1+ deltas this winter between diesel and RUL. I would like to be wrong, believe me. My diesel is essentially parked since it costs more to operate and is a PITA in the winter vs. my gasser. Before the lower cost to run it made up for the stuff I had to put up with like potential fuel gelling, limited initial heat, crappy pumps and limited pumps due to the MK5 nozzle issue. Not now, it's just a reminder that I made the way wrong choice.

Remember all that when the next hurricane wipes the refineries and RUG is $1-2 a gal if you can find it more than diesel ............Sell your "money pit" now before the price difference goes away again , which it surely will at some point .;)

Here's a funny observation I've noticed ; Many/Most of the loudest whiners on the difference of RUG to D2 today where driving low mpg gas hogs wasting oil by the barrel not giving a sh!t about anything oil related not so long ago ............... Funny isn't it :confused: :p ;) :D .

Bet all the whiners wish you had your Ford Exploder ,or fill in the blank _________ gasoline wasting for no real reason back today .............



The price drop of RUG today is a temporary at best phenomenon . Or we all better hope it is as the alternative is likely a world wide depression like none of us have ever dreamed of .

Cheap RUG does you little good if you have lost your job and have no money to buy it with . And cheap RUG will stop any forward movement in it's tracks away from oil that will have to happen at some point . And cheap RUG will likely stop in it's tracks just as it did in the 80s a movement toward fuel efficient light duty transport in the masses hands . All of this making the next oil shock that have no doubt we will have at some point 10 or 1,000 times worse than what we just went through last summer ..........

Idiots that can't learn from the past , two oil shocks in the 70s one in the early 80s , slight one in the early 90s and the one we just went through are destined to make us all repeat the pain of earlier this year whether we want to or not .

AND THAT PROSPECT REALLY SUCKS and makes me mad as h3ll !!!!!!!!!!! So all you whiners of the price difference today , go ahead and bail on the one tech we have today to make the next oil shock that will come to at some point less destructive to our society . Hybrids are a bad joke that will never work for 90 % of us as we don't reside in a city .

I for one will be laughing at you for your short sightedness when you can't afford to fill your gasser when the difference closes up @ say $5 a gal for rug with D2 running just above or below . Or when at some point you're waiting in a gas line for your $10 worth of rationed gas while we dieselers pull right up to our diesel pump and fill our car to the brim . Allowing many of us another 800-1,000+ miles without a fuel stop being required .

But I will be morning us all as our economy falls off another cliff like today due to the idiots that refuse to get the message that wasting oil for no real reason is dumb and expensive to us all . And harms us all ......!!!!

To me it has never been so much about the cost above or below RUG . But about these amazing cars I've driven for almost 30 years now that can go 700-1,000+ miles between fillups . As many have said , if you came to diesel to save money overall in just a couple of years you were never going to get what you wanted . So whiners please leave now we get it you hate your diesel .

I've saved 10s of thousands of $$$$ over the last 30 years along with used 10s of hundreds of gals of less fuel used over these years .

But you are loosing so much money on your diesel investment , yeah right .............................:( :eek: :eek:

Have a nice day :)
 

CNDTDI

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near Ottawa, Canada
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here in Ottawa is the cheapest diesel in the country at 3.78$ a gallon :eek:(around 60$ a tank)

but it isn't as bad for the 5.67$ during the beginning of the summer:mad: (around 90$ a tank!)

But I would never be able to sell my TDI unless its to buy another one ;P


I would actually buy my dads 04 Jetta GLS, if i had the money :)
and my old 91 and fix her up right :D
 
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McBrew

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Idiots that can't learn from the past , two oil shocks in the 70s one in the early 80s , slight one in the early 90s and the one we just went through are destined to make us all repeat the pain of earlier this year whether we want to or not .
This much is true.

You have to admit, though, that the current diesel/gasoline spread is unprecedented... at least compared to the last 30 years or so. We have been a "diesel family." My father started driving diesel VWs in 1980 and we haven't owned a gasoline powered car since. I still like the way diesels drive. Believe me... I have been driving my fiancee's Honda Civic (106hp, 103lbs torque) and it is PAINFUL compared to my Golf TDI. Not only that, but I have to drive very gently to squeek out 36+ MPG from the Honda, while I could get 46+ easily with the Golf.

I didn't sell the Golf because I'm against TDIs. I'm not even particularly upset about the price of diesel. I got rid of it because it's an aging VW. I think the price of diesel is just fine. What I would like to see is the price of gasoline go up as well! The price of gasoline in the past year has changed a lot of peoples' habits. People are driving more efficient cars and driving less. I think that's great. In fact, since I sold the Golf, my fiancee and I have been carpooling almost every day and I am starting to enjoy it. She had to change her hours and I still get to work an hour early, but it's nice to just drive one car and use half the fuel. We just talked about it last night, and we may decide to keep carpooling even after my new car comes in.
 

McBrew

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The BIG PICTURE is that hybrids are going to dominate in the US over the next 5 years and diesel will die a fairly fast death
I hate to nitpick, but I think we should use the term "efficient gas engines" rather than "hybrids" since the majority of hybrid vehicle models get MPG numbers BELOW 30:

Ford Escape AWD 29/27
Mercury Mariner AWD 29/27
Mazda Tribute AWD 29/27
Toyota Highlander 27/25
Chevy Malibu 26/34
Saturn Aura 26/34
Saturn Vue 25/32
Lexus GS 450h 22/25
Chevy Silverado 21/22
GMC Sierra 21/22
Chevy Tahoe 21/22
GMC Yukon 21/22
Dodge Durango 20/22
Chrysler Aspen 20/22
Lexus LS 600h 20/22
Cadillac Escalade 20/21
Chevy Silverado 4WD 20/20
GMC Sierra 4WD 20/20
Chevy Tahoe 4WD 20/20
GMC Yukon 4WD 20/20

Yeah, I know that many of those are just rebadged versions of the others, but you can compare it to the list of hybrids that get over 30 MPG:

Toyota Prius 48/45
Honda Civic 40/45
Nissan Altima 35/33
Ford Escape FWD 34/31
Mazda Tribute FWD 34/31
Mercury Mariner FWD 34/31
Toyota Camry 33/34

Not only is that a shorter list, but many of the numbers just aren't too impressive, anyway. There are plenty of cars like the Yaris, Fit, Versa, xD, etc. that get over 30 MPG... some over 40 MPG is real-life driving. My brother's Fit averaged 38.4 MPG on its first tank.

Sorry for the rant... I just cringe every time the word "hybrid" is thrown around like it means "good fuel economy."
 

lovemybug

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Filled up Monday night at the BP station in Waterford, WI for $2.59. Lowest I've seen it around here in quite some time.
 

rotarykid

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I'm no more happy with the spread here than anyone else . In fact I see it as the one way the oil companies can reduce the appeal of really fuel efficient diesel cars just as they are about to be reintroduced to the US . The current spread is not supported by any real world factors other than greed and manipulations of the market by big oil .

But I just don't see the current ridiculous difference as an excuse to abandon the one tech that can reduce overall light duty transport fuel consumption . In the big picture diesel powered cars are still the best , only option we have for most of us that live in rural area option we have to get out of our current energy mess .

Hopefully at some point we will have an energy policy that encourages high mpg diesels not builds fear of them . If not the oil companies will get what they want , the blocking of light duty diesels from ever getting into the hands of the masses . And if that happens we all loose .............
 

EJS

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McBrew said:
Sorry for the rant... I just cringe every time the word "hybrid" is thrown around like it means "good fuel economy."
Yep :D good point.........just because a few do. Reminds me of everything have "Ti" in it, down to makeup.....like that somehow makes it better.

Rotarykid has some valid points, not certain it's a conspiracy though.

One that does crack me up are the ID-10-Ts that are so happy over the gas prices.................here's a clue for ya moron the price of diesel takes more out of your pocket than gas. They see the gas $$$, the other is behind the scenes & they're way to stupid to figure it out.
 

dieseldorf

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OPEC said:
Crude oil for January delivery ended down $2.32 to $46.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest closing level since May 20, 2005.

Crude's loss on Tuesday followed a 9.4% slump in the previous session, the biggest percentage decline in more than seven weeks. Oil is now 68% lower than its record high of nearly $150 a barrel hit in July.
"Markets are increasingly concerned that the worldwide economic decline is too pronounced to be fixed any time soon and a worldwide recession will curtail energy demand," said analysts at Action Economics.

The U.S., the biggest oil consumer in the world, first entered a recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research, which tracks economic cycles, said on Monday.

Oil demand could see an outright contraction of 0.5% next year as the global economy falls into recession, analysts at Merrill Lynch said in a report released late November.
Something tells me we're gonna be seeing $0.999 gasoline before year-end - - a day I'd thought we'd never see again. Some areas are already below $1.299 :eek:
 
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