silver lining to emission scandal

Darth_Furious · Oct 5, 2015

If there are fewer diesel car sales as a result of the scandal, this could affect diesel imports in Europe: http://www.energylivenews.com/2015/10/05/vw-diesel-emissions-scandal-an-opportunity-for-gasoline/

The US exports d2 to Europe and with lower demand there and worldwide, this may cause a drop in d2 price in the US... until they can adjust the refineries to produce more gas/less diesel per barrel around the world. If more people buy gasoline cars, then demand goes up for RUG and gas prices increase. If we hold onto our TDIs, even with the recall, we may enjoy cheaper fuel.

This is a big if. I think Diesel is going to bounce back in a couple of years and it will blow over in Europe. No one knows what will really happen.

PeteZ06 · Oct 5, 2015

The amount of diesel fuel used by passanger cars in the USA is a drop in the bucket compared to diesel used by trucks, trains and other heavy equipment. This will have no effect on prices.

Westro · Oct 6, 2015

I think what you will see is an increase in TAX on diesel. I know locally (Minnesota) they are talking about taxing diesel more because of these environmental concerns.

Wishful thinking on your part, but in reality it is and will be expensive to run a diesel.

UhOh · Oct 8, 2015

Drop in production produce a reverse "economies of scale" pricing outcome. In the long-run it's less about "price" and more about "affordability."

As Darth suggests, we're likely to see an increase in taxation, aka "incentives." They can split it out for POV pumps (vs. truck pumps). And this really pisses me off, given that my entire strategy is based on the notion that diesel fuel would be supported till the end of time as it's essential for actually getting stuff done (AG, trucking and shipping): cars, truck and tractor are all diesels.

The idiots at VW ought to be thankful that they weren't operating in Japan, where something along this level of screw-up would require them to do the honorable thing and kill themselves.

dieselgrandad · Oct 8, 2015

UhOh said:
we're likely to see an increase in taxation, aka "incentives." They can split it out for POV pumps (vs. truck pumps).

Yeah ..... pretty safe to say that's not gonna happen. For one thing, just how are the POV pumps (as you call them) going to differentiate between passenger vehicles and small commercial diesel delivery trucks and pickups? And how would you stop the small vehicles from using the truck pumps? I would also guess there would be a host legal issues for charging more for cars when they are actually less of a problem environmentally than the big-rigs.

Not gonna happen.

UhOh · Oct 9, 2015

dieselgrandad said:
Yeah ..... pretty safe to say that's not gonna happen. For one thing, just how are the POV pumps (as you call them) going to differentiate between passenger vehicles and small commercial diesel delivery trucks and pickups? And how would you stop the small vehicles from using the truck pumps? I would also guess there would be a host legal issues for charging more for cars when they are actually less of a problem environmentally than the big-rigs.

Not gonna happen.

Never say never...

Folks are kept from purchasing things at the same distribution points based on AGE: tobacco, alcohol etc.. While this does not guarantee it won't happen, there's the penalty of law for the seller/distributor. Truck stops do most of their business with truckers, in which case they wouldn't want to risk having their licenses taken away.

I can access pumps that sell off-road diesel, for AG and such, but, dollars-to-doughnuts, if the operators saw me pumping into an POV (that I'm driving) they'd report me: one has to fill out a form for such purchases (or have one on file if a regular customer). The fuels here are differentiated by way of a red dye in off-road fuels; I suppose that a law could be enacted mandating there be dye differences between on-road uses for commercial vs. private.

Commercial delivery vehicles would be allowed, likely by way of business licensing or such.

The environmental impact is pretty much tossed out the window for the big rigs because of their importance, and because the trucking industry's lobby is a bit more powerful than the automotive industry (as far as it's diesel segment goes- I almost suspect that most would just as soon get rid of the headaches of operating in the US/NA marketplace).

dieselgrandad · Oct 9, 2015

UhOh said:
Never say never...

Folks are kept from purchasing things at the same distribution points based on AGE: tobacco, alcohol etc.. While this does not guarantee it won't happen, there's the penalty of law for the seller/distributor. Truck stops do most of their business with truckers, in which case they wouldn't want to risk having their licenses taken away.

I can access pumps that sell off-road diesel, for AG and such, but, dollars-to-doughnuts, if the operators saw me pumping into an POV (that I'm driving) they'd report me: one has to fill out a form for such purchases (or have one on file if a regular customer). The fuels here are differentiated by way of a red dye in off-road fuels; I suppose that a law could be enacted mandating there be dye differences between on-road uses for commercial vs. private.

Commercial delivery vehicles would be allowed, likely by way of business licensing or such.

The environmental impact is pretty much tossed out the window for the big rigs because of their importance, and because the trucking industry's lobby is a bit more powerful than the automotive industry (as far as it's diesel segment goes- I almost suspect that most would just as soon get rid of the headaches of operating in the US/NA marketplace).

Yes, yes ..... you can postulate, speculate, hopothesize, and wild a$$ guess any scenario you like, but I assure you it isn't going to happen as you describe.

However, if you are really adamant about sticking it to private diesel passenger vehicle owners, why not apply some K-I-S-S theory? Do it at the time of registration and renewal.

UhOh · Oct 9, 2015

dieselgrandad said:
Yes, yes ..... you can postulate, speculate, hopothesize, and wild a$$ guess any scenario you like, but I assure you it isn't going to happen as you describe.

However, if you are really adamant about sticking it to private diesel passenger vehicle owners, why not apply some K-I-S-S theory? Do it at the time of registration and renewal.

I use clear logic, facts and history to support my views. Got nothing to do with what I WANT to see. I don't make things personal.

Saying something won't happen because YOU don't want it to happen, because you HOPE it won't happen?

dieselgrandad · Oct 10, 2015

UhOh said:
I use clear logic, facts and history to support my views. Got nothing to do with what I WANT to see. I don't make things personal.

Saying something won't happen because YOU don't want it to happen, because you HOPE it won't happen?

LOL Really? In addition to using fact and logic, I also rely on experience.

So just what facts and history support singling out non commercial diesels for higher taxation at the point of fuel sales? Did you bother to think about the cost of implementation, enforcement, etc? There is NO logic to going through your POS (point of sale) scenario when you could simply tax a diesel vehicle at the time of registration.

They are not going to tax diesel cars differently from other diesel vehicles at the pump. But if they do, I will be happy to resurrect this thread and say I was wrong and you were right.

As far as "hoping" and "wanting", I couldn't care less at the moment; my B4 hasn't been road worthy for a couple years now.

UhOh · Oct 11, 2015

You said "never." "Never" means open, no end, infinity. I stated that it's POSSIBLE that we could see a separate taxation mechanism.

I retain my open mind... I recall people "with lots of experience" telling me that housing prices only went up: I sold. Also recall people "with lots of experience" telling me that taxes never went down: my property taxes went down (though have swung back up- that, however, didn't invalidate my point that saying "never" is problematic).

hybridkiller · Oct 21, 2015

UhOh said:
I recall people "with lots of experience" telling me that housing prices only went up: I sold. Also recall people "with lots of experience" telling me that taxes never went down: my property taxes went down

Experience is no guarantee of competence. The people who told you those things were idiots - experienced perhaps, but idiots nonetheless.

UhOh · Oct 23, 2015

To back up my conjectures about the POSSIBILITY of being taxed to (attempt to) control/address this issue:

http://www.carsdirect.com/car-pricing/diesel-road-tax-frequently-asked-questions
http://www.boe.ca.gov/sptaxprog/diesel_fuel_tax.htm

I suppose that any added taxation could also follow more along those lines, BUT, at some point it has to materialize at the pumps and I'd figure that the trucking industry would tend to push back such that there would be some sort of two-tier system (there's already a bit of one when considering ON vs OFF road taxation on diesel).

showdown 42 · Oct 23, 2015

THE TAXATION OF DIESEL HAS ALWAYS BEEN AIMED At THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY TO GET REVS TO USE ON THE HIGHWAYs THAT THE TRUCKERS DESTROY. Now if the govt really wants to improve the environment and get more diesel trucks removed in favor of LNG treucks the taxation should be aimed at diesel semis . Big Boon Pickens has been yelling about this for yrs. A huge amount of diesel is consumed by the trucking industry.

In the N E they have been over taxing diesel for yrs,so we're use to it.

UhOh · Oct 23, 2015

showdown 42 said:
THE TAXATION OF DIESEL HAS ALWAYS BEEN AIMED At THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY TO GET REVS TO USE ON THE HIGHWAYs THAT THE TRUCKERS DESTROY. Now if the govt really wants to improve the environment and get more diesel trucks removed in favor of LNG treucks the taxation should be aimed at diesel semis . Big Boon Pickens has been yelling about this for yrs. A huge amount of diesel is consumed by the trucking industry.

In the N E they have been over taxing diesel for yrs,so we're use to it.

Regarding LNG and trucking:

http://www.ccjdigital.com/apples-and-oranges-natural-gas-diesel-cant-be-compared/

I just don't get a warm feeling thinking about LNG-powered Canadian and Mexican trucks running on our roadways.

Interstate commerce. Interstate HIGHWAYS. It's ALL for trucking. POVs just help subsidize it all.

Trucks pay based on registration of vehicle weight (hauling capacity).

You won't find me arguing that there wouldn't be a big push to derail diesel. However, as the economic vortex continues to draw downward we'll find that diesel fuel use (as all fuel use) will be declining, thus making it s tough sell to invest in large-scale revamps (everyone's margins are already pretty much squeezed to the breaking point).

silver lining to emission scandal

Darth_Furious

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