Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

No, charging as fast as energy can be fed to it - IE limited by you power feed and charger, so in this case in a typical home, no real change, but with fast charge capability, even higher stress on the grid, thus making my point even more valid. There is no free lunch, even with electric power . . .

- Tim

http://www.cheatsheet.com/automobil...-always-cleaner-than-gas-cars.html/?a=viewall

"According to research by the Union of Concerned Scientists, electric vehicles are always cleaner than gasoline cars, and they continue to get cleaner every year. Here are the three reasons why".

http://primove.bombardier.com/products/charging.html
This is not vapor. It's based on recent advances in tuned harmonic induction, and there are prototypes in place.


However, solar and wind are just not capable of meeting the demand if we all converted to EVs. Solar is just too diffuse. If every home in America had their whole roof covered with PV, the average would not be enough to power the homes and a fleet of family cars.

With my kids we have 5. We might be okay in So Cal if we cut down all the trees and leveled the hill on the south side of our house, but as it is we would need to be supplemented, as would all of the PNW and lots of other low insolence areas.

Tho still, building codes should require all new homes to have PV, LED lighting etc etc., because then what has to be made up with wind, wave, biomass and nuclear can be reduced. What we need is to be supporting tech development in all alt energy sectors by subsidizing it with a price for fossil fuels that includes their real net costs (however impossible to accurately calculate).

Its really doable if there was political will, and despite the deniers, the long term savings would be enormous and hugely offset any cost. Already the cost from increasingly extreme weather events is dwarfing the costs of making the transition. But since life is all about homeostasis, we apes are pretty reluctant to rock the boat, even if it would get us off the reef.

nesdon said:

http://primove.bombardier.com/products/charging.html

However, solar and wind are just not capable of meeting the demand if we all converted to EVs. Solar is just too diffuse. If every home in America had their whole roof covered with PV, the average would not be enough to power the homes and a fleet of family cars.

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We get ~1kW/m² from the sun... of which ~200w can be harvested with modern panels. So 1000 ft² can easily support 10kW. 10kW x ~4.5 hours/day (US average full solar insolation) = 16MWh/yr. Driving the average 12k miles/yr would only consume 4MWh/yr.

We get MORE than enough energy from the sun. Another way to think of it is that we would only need to devote an area 3x the size of what we currently use for golf. That would cover 100% of ALL energy needs including transportation. Wind would be a bonus.

rustycat said:

I will throw out the thought that we are very close to adoption of a Super Capacitor to replace Li Batteries. Almost instant charging and 100s of thousands of discharge cycles. It will be 3D printed.
One thing you can count on: technology always advances

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What should happen is replaceable power cells (battery or capacitor) that can be interchanged quickly and recharged at aaa slower rate.

Better is inductive charging in the roads.

Anyways it won't happen in my life time.

As an aside, here's approximate axle torque figures (shifting in the 4200-4400 region on the TDI) between a 2.0 150 hp TDI with a manual, and a 2016 Volt:



The left side of the Volt graph is cut off due to needing to line up with the TDI graph, and the 10 km/h speed for the TDI is interpolated (the Volt may actually have more).

The TDI output is from this graph:



Should be close enough even if it's not exact.

And, here's the full Volt graph:

tadawson said:

No, charging as fast as energy can be fed to it - IE limited by you power feed and charger, so in this case in a typical home, no real change, but with fast charge capability, even higher stress on the grid, thus making my point even more valid. There is no free lunch, even with electric power . . .

- Tim

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I'd just let this slide back to the emissions discussion, as the mods requested. You can't have a rational argument with what amounts to a religious belief that EV vehicles can just rush to the rescue overnight and replace the ICE. Will they in the future? I dunno, my Magic 8-Ball is in the shop.
The most laughable assertion is that power plants are just letting all these KWH go up into thin air at night. Our standby generator uses about 1 gal. propane per hour in test mode (approx. no load), but a great deal more than that when it switches over in an actual outage and is powering the load presented by the house. But situations like this throw some people into TANSTAAFL mode, and they can't be budged.

Also, regarding the CO2 issue: http://www.theverge.com/2015/9/29/9411657/xprize-foundation-carbon-emissions-power-plants-conversion

That doesn't do anything about mining emissions from coal or fracking concerns with natural gas, or the fact that both are non-renewable, but CO2 capture would obviously help with the carbon footprint of EVs. And, CO2 capture on a powerplant is likely far easier than CO2 capture on a car tailpipe.

nwdiver said:

Yes... the Model S is outside the price range for most people... the Model 3 will not be. Give it ~3 years

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Is that factoring the same level of subsidizing that takes place with the sale of each S? If the 3 is much more popular, can the governments (state and federal) afford it?

Those who have been able to fork out for a Tesla so far are free loading on more than just lack of fuel tax.

nwdiver said:

The problem isn't EVs... it's coal... which is quickly going away. We're adding Solar PV production >10x faster than EV consumption.
Should we wait until our coal fleet is shutdown before replacing our ICE fleet? Or perhaps do both in parallel....

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Solar will never supply the bulk of the power on the grid. It is dependent on the whims of nature. Pick your poison. It is going to have to be nuclear or some type of fossil fueled plant that provides the bulk of our electricity for decades to come.

Regardless of how much solar capacity is available, it remains unreliable and therefore supplemental in nature. Facts are stubborn things and pay little attention to our wishful thinking.

tadawson said:

So, for my unit, I see about 6kW draw. Looking at the Tesla S, with an 85kWh battery, hell will freeze before a 1kW charge rate will charge it overnight. At the 1kW rate, you are looking at at least 85 hours, not accounting for losses, to replensish a flat battery. So, lets say you get from 10 PM to 6AM lower rates . . .8 hours. That requires more like a 12kW charger, which, ironically, is what you get fro a 50A outlets, which most EV makes recommend as a home charge source.

So, typically 1 AC per home, 2 to 3 cars, if we went full electric, even if all AC was off at nignt, the EV load would be at least 4x to 6x the daytime AC load . . . . and down goes the grid . . .

- Tim

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I agree the 1KW was just ridiculous but it is very unlikely someone is using 100% and exactly 100% of their battery every day. Even if you do, what matters on this scale is the average. Even 50 miles a day is 18K miles annually which is more than the national average. At 3.125 miles per kWh and off peak being 6 hours (12 to 6am) you get ~19 miles per KW of idle night generation capacity. The US has about ~200 GW of idle night capacity. That is sufficient for 3.8 billion daily miles or 76 million EVs @ an average of 50 miles per day.

So the reality is we as a country can build, deploy, and overnight charge tens of millions of EVs and/or hundreds of millions of plug in hybrids without building a single new powerplant. The ratio between peak and average demand has been increasing. This makes the grid less efficient (we need to build more powerplants to support the same average load). EV and plug-in hybrids are one of the few time variable loads which could (if deployed in large enough numbers) reverse this trend. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15051

SageBrush said:

How about some numbers ?

Overnight charging for an "average" EV requires about one kW load.
Your turn: What is the load of AC in the summer in the early evening per home ?

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I have a fairly small house and my AC draws ~3.5Kw. In the summer here in Phoenix it runs about 75-85% of the time. (Except 3pm-6pm on weekdays; I am on a time of use plan. ~10.5cents/Kwh other times and 32cents/Kwh 3pm-6pm. The thermostat is programmed to turn it off at that time. House gets to about 84F inside but I am at work so I don't care.)

From the IRS, what'll happen when Model 3s sell en masse:

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

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So, basically, once Tesla has shipped 200,000 cars (because everything they've ever made is qualifying), two quarters after that, the tax credit is cut in half, another two quarters after that, it's cut to 1/4, and another two quarters, it's gone.

That is just for the federal tax credits, though, states may handle things differently. And, Tesla has another revenue stream in the form of California ZEV credits.

Riflesmith said:

Solar will never supply the bulk of the power on the grid. It is dependent on the whims of nature. Pick your poison. It is going to have to be nuclear or some type of fossil fueled plant that provides the bulk of our electricity for decades to come.

Regardless of how much solar capacity is available, it remains unreliable and therefore supplemental in nature. Facts are stubborn things and pay little attention to our wishful thinking.

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Huh? I have a solar system on my house it makes enough electricity to power my home, my jacuzzi, and my Tesla which goes about 30,000 miles per year. How much roof area does it cover? Only 12%. I even overproduce a bit back to the grid.

The best solar is rooftop. Centralized solar as in big solar farms waste wildlands and loses a lot of power in transmission. I have many friends with solar systems that produce more than 100% of their needs. I have not yet seen more than about 20% of their roof covered.

Unreliable you say? Solar is the most reliable energy source there is.

The other thing is that with storage systems like Tesla's Powerwall, solar supply can be matched with demand. Really, with careful power usage and taking advantage of the solar peak for energy-intensive tasks, a Powerwall user could likely avoid touching the grid with just a couple units.

And, the other thing with solar is that you can do things like have solar carports covering the parking lots at a business, and then charge off of that at the solar peak (which is not the grid peak), when the car's sitting there anyway.

tadawson said:

AC is pretty binary with only modest currnt draw changes due to temps. What changes is cycle time, so loading is still based on full draw. So, for my unit, I see about 6kW draw. Looking at the Tesla S, with an 85kWh battery, hell will freeze before a 1kW charge rate will charge it overnight. At the 1kW rate, you are looking at at least 85 hours, not accounting for losses, to replensish a flat battery. So, lets say you get from 10 PM to 6AM lower rates . . .8 hours. That requires more like a 12kW charger, which, ironically, is what you get fro a 50A outlets, which most EV makes recommend as a home charge source.

So, typically 1 AC per home, 2 to 3 cars, if we went full electric, even if all AC was off at nignt, the EV load would be at least 4x to 6x the daytime AC load . . . . and down goes the grid . . . And I think my estimate on the number of cars vs AC units is drastically low, not to mention a lot of residential AC is used more in the eveninng/night when folks are not at work. Slow charge sounds great, right until you realize that in most cases it just won't work. Again, using the S, 85kWh is 265 miles, so 8 is 26.5 . . . just not going to cut it for most folks . . .

- Tim

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Don't you think that's kind of a straw man? Even if most folks had an EV, they would need to go from 0 to 265 miles every night. Most folks commutes are far less than that.

I was being very generous . . . not including loss in charging, buying the mfg's mileage ratings, etc. and it isn't even close, so no, not at all. It's obvious that the US infrastructure today could not support massive numbers of electrics . . .

- Tim

tadawson said:

I was being very generous . . . not including loss in charging, buying the mfg's mileage ratings, etc. and it isn't even close, so no, not at all. It's obvious that the US infrastructure today could not support massive numbers of electrics . . .

- Tim

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40 miles is the average commute... that's 13kWh required while you're home. Even if you recharged in 1 hour that's less power than a tankless hot water heater.

The grid can certainly handle this...

On an average day, I charge up 4kwh at work and 4kwh at home. I haven't seen the streetlamps dim yet.

Rico567 said:

The most laughable assertion is that power plants are just letting all these KWH go up into thin air at night.

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Love it.

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/news/musk-trickery-only-option-engineers-vw-scandal-150000487.html


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BKmetz said:

The other big facking piece of misinformation is that powerplants waste power at night. ALL powerplants (nuke & fossil) drop load at night when the grid load drops. They always have. Fast cycle coal plants will come off line in the evening and cycle back on in time for the morning load pick up. Large coal plants & nukes will ramp down to their minimum load.

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In the US nuclear plants don't ramp down power at night. I know I worked 8 years at a nuclear generating plant (Surry, VA). Capacity factor for US nuclear fleet is >91%. That means in a year it generates 91% of the theoretical max (nameplate rating) for the year.

In France I believe they use to load follow with their reactors but IIRC they stopped doing that in the last decade or so. Load following with a reactor is tough. Going from low power to full power is actually the most dangerous operation in a PWR (outside of catastrophic emergencies like station blackout). France doesn't need to load follow anymore because they sell their excess electricity to their neighbors (increasingly to the Germans who shut down most of their reactors). The irony.

tadawson said:

I was being very generous . . . not including loss in charging, buying the mfg's mileage ratings, etc. and it isn't even close, so no, not at all. It's obvious that the US infrastructure today could not support massive numbers of electrics . . .

- Tim

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Of course it could. There is north of 400GW of idled overnight capacity in the US. That is enough for more than 100M EVs tomorrow. All theses other issues are non-issues. The real issue is cost of battery pack. That will come down in time and production scales up. As the price falls it can be split between more range and lower cost. Still, it will take a decade or more before EVs sell in any significant number to even make a dent in that idled capacity.

redpill said:

Wow, how often do you drive 500+ miles in a day? I don't think I'd want to do that in any car.
It's not about capability, of course they could do it. The only consideration is the $$$. Or should I say the €€€.

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This past month I drove 5000 miles. Mostly on the weekends for specific tasks. I drive that far in a day at least once a month, last month was a fluke. I work only 6 miles from my home, so little of that is commuting. I used to have a dual-tank Jetta I built 12 gallons or whatever internally and a 25 gallon boat tank in the trunk, gm fuel switcher out of a 6.2 diesel truck. If this was a factory option I'd get it! I think an electric would be pretty cool if there was a little generator trailer or something you could attach for longer range / conventional fueling, but I bet the NTSB wouldn't allow this to happen and its too annoying for most people. =)

That being said, I should probably look at some aftermarket seats or modifications. My back is killing me!

cowgirlkaboom said:

I think an electric would be pretty cool if there was a little generator trailer or something you could attach for longer range / conventional fueling, but I bet the NTSB wouldn't allow this to happen and its too annoying for most people. =)

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They have one. It's called a Chevy Volt.

I'm very interested in the 2016, actually.

And, to be honest, if I can convince my landlord to allow a EVSE to be installed, the 2016 (well, 2017 by the time it makes it to Ohio, and I wouldn't be ready to buy a 2016 anyway) Volt would be really well suited to my usage model.

Electric efficiency isn't far off of the pure BEVs, at 106 MPGe. (The best BEV is the i3 at 124 MPGe, the best EREV is the i3 REx at 117 MPGe. To compare with more common BEVs, the e-Golf is at 116, the Leaf is at 114.)

Gasoline efficiency is 43 city/42 highway on RUG, which isn't that bad for RUG at that curb weight, and is better than the i3 REx (at 41/37 on premium). (Also, the i3 REx has uselessly short range on the gasser, and requires that you recode everything for it to actually be usable.)

My trips are short (~10 mi round trip), so I'd be able to avoid gasoline usage in daily driving entirely. When I do go on a road trip... while I love my Miata, it's not the best road trip car, so the Volt could do that, too, decently well.

nwdiver said:

You're right... it's one notch down... a class 1 misdemeanor.
Are.... are you really defending doing 90 on public roads? Seriously?

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Have you ever driven across the empty parts of the western US?????

Out there there are plenty of places you can see for miles in front & behind....

Under these conditions, legal or not many people push speeds into that range low to mid 80s while crossing the big empties....

When Montana had Reasonable & Prudent daytime limits across the state in the 1990s many times I and everyone else during good weather would spend hours on end @ 88-91 mph.....

In west Texas on their ~600 miles today posted @ 80 mph travel speeds of 83-90 mph are not uncommon for as long as you can hold it without a refuel being required.....

Point is no electric can go that long in the real world today while crossing any of these stretches today @ Today's real world speeds without their charge running dry......Until that changes these things will be useless for those who live in this real world......

cowgirlkaboom said:

I think an electric would be pretty cool if there was a little generator trailer or something you could attach for longer range / conventional fueling, but I bet the NTSB wouldn't allow this to happen and its too annoying for most people.

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I am sure that someone will eventually make one. It is a pretty niche market. NTSB wouldn't have a problem as long as it meets safety and emission standards. Right now there are so few EV and this would have huge upfront design, testing, and validation costs that it becomes unviable. Someday when there are 10M EV someone will make a range extender. Still even then I would think this might be something you rent instead of own (10KW generators aren't exactly cheap).

cowgirlkaboom said:

I think an electric would be pretty cool if there was a little generator trailer or something you could attach for longer range / conventional fueling,

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also the BMW i3

http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/bmwi/i3

you can get one with a two cylinder gas generator.

the volt is a better car for semi-regular road trips, however.

rotarykid said:

Point is no electric can go that long in the real world today while crossing any of these stretches today @ Today's real world speeds without their charge running dry......Until that changes these things will be useless for those who live in this real world......

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....Even doing ~90 I can make it ~120 miles before I would need to stop for ~30 minutes to charge; Needless to say I don't do 90... 80 is plenty fast for me. That shortens my charge time to ~20 minutes.

Yes... I've driven my 'useless' car through South Dakota.