Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

CraziFuzzy said:

The issue is we need to try to achieve max total energy efficiency, across the market. MOST the gasoline sold in this country is NOT put into F-150's. It's put into the very large number of small and mid-sized cars driving on average 25-50 miles a day. If that gasoline usage was transitioned to BEV use, where it's actually the ideal use case, the overall gasoline market would shift considerably. Demand would drop significantly, causing the cost to drive even the biggest grocery getting pick-ups to drop as well. The fact that an electric F-150 would not be able to tow well is irrelevant to the places that electric does the most overall good. That said, a series electric tow vehicle can still be very formidable, once the tech makes components of that size reasonable for the consumer market. Keep in mind that the most potent tow vehicles on earth are series diesel hybrids.

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Three of the four top selling vehicles in the US in January were trucks. The Toyota Camry was 4th. Considering that pickups, on average, probably use twice as much fuel as a mid-size sedan I bet total fleet fuel consumption is biased towards trucks.

This is the single biggest argument, in my opinion, that fuel prices should be higher. Catch state fuel taxes up with inflation to help fix our crumbling infrastructure, introduce a carbon tax...whatever it takes to guide the average grocery-getter and commuter away from a 5,000 lb. truck.

CraziFuzzy said:

The issue is we need to try to achieve max total energy efficiency, across the market. MOST the gasoline sold in this country is NOT put into F-150's. .

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You are correct. A lot of it gets put into Chevrolet Silverados, GMC Sierras, and Ram 1500/2500 trucks. If you removed those models from the roads here, excluding those that are clearly used for company/vocational use, you would quite literally take over 50% of every vehicle I share my morning commute with off the road. And the vast majority of those trucks are single occupant (many are crew cabs, too), with no cargo in the bed.

It is almost comical how much this country's love affair with giant trucks has gotten. I must admit, my own F150 is a very useful vehicle for when I need it. Which is rarely, which is why it spends most of its time at home in my driveway. I wouldn't dream of driving it every day. I don't even drive it into the city for work once every couple weeks. Mainly to and from the farm property, and even that is not always, because I don't drive it in winter weather.

I work with three people who drive empty full size trucks to work every single day. The money they spend on fuel is crazy nuts. But they don't care.

bhtooefr said:

It's also worth noting that the i3 REx takes a major hit in efficiency due to conversion losses,

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Agreed, I believe that packaging is the only reason BMW didn't go with the Volt setup. My compliant about the Volt is that it has to big of an engine and tries to use a conventional layout for a non conventional car. otherwise great car.

bhtooefr said:

and the only reason trains use the systems that they're using is due to torque capacity of mechanical transmissions.

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Which is part of the reason that I like the BMW I3 REX, I think it is fair to say that it is the closest thing in the automotive world to the diesel electric locomotive, I know there is no battery storage on a train, but otherwise . . . .

bhtooefr said:

The good news is, the same technology that helps electrify the fleet of unibody passenger cars can help electrify the fleet of body on frame pickups, too - the hard part here is batteries, and those don't care what you put them in, as long as you keep them cool.

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Absolutely

The Nissan Leaf owner in me wants to tell you that battery cooling isn't a big deal, but we all know otherwise (the Leaf has no active cooling of the battery and isn't known for battery longevity).

oilhammer said:

The money they spend on fuel is crazy nuts. But they don't care.

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Whether the money is spent on burning a pterodactyl worth of fossil fuel on the way to work, or on a higher electric bill from constantly charging an EV, the money is still getting spent, and fossil fuels are still getting burned.

bhtooefr said:

I'm actually not sure about that, because full-size pickups are among the most popular vehicles in the US, and they get driven, and use disproportionate amounts of gasoline...

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Be careful looking at the relative numbers I was actually stating. I was stating that more gasoline is used fueling small and mid-sized cars on 25-50 mile/day usages. Not the sheer number of vehicles of different types. While there may be more trucks than cars reported sold in recent years, they are predominantly used by those with shorter mile/day routines.

Also, you need to check closely when looking at numbers of vehicles sold in various categories. 'Light-Duty Trucks', as often reported as being higher numbers than 'Cars', includes a lot more than pick-up trucks. In fact, the largest category in 'Light-Duty Trucks' is actually Crossover SUVs, which when we are talking about hybrid and BEV candidates, should really be in the 'can-be-electrified category', not in the 'too-heavy-to-electrify' group.

Going from YTD 2016 sales figures as of May 3rd:
Electric candidates (Cars and Crossovers): 3,849,453
Non-electric candidates (Pickups, Vans, SUVs): 1,745,290

numbers consolidated from here: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html

Right, but what I'm saying is that diesel-electric trains use a serial hybrid system because when the current architecture was being designed, nothing else was practical. Looking at this packaging, BMW could've easily done a power split hybrid, which would have a more efficient path to the wheels for the ICE power, while still allowing it to efficiently charge the battery in regimes where that's needed:



(It's also worth noting that diesel-electric trains could probably go to a power split drivetrain themselves, nowadays, but the industry has a lot of inertia, there, and there's packaging considerations for that that come into play. BMW's packaging in this case, though, really would allow a power split system without too much trouble.)

Crazi, where do you get the mileage data? I bet pickups are driven as many or more miles per day on average than cars. Many are simply an alternative choice to a small car, others are used by people who drive from job to job (even though nothing may ever go in the truck's bed), and accrue more miles.

And the top four selling vehicles in January 2016 were the Ford F-Series, Chevrolet Silverado, Ram Pickup, and then the Toyota Camry. The first CUV that appears on the list is the Toyota RAV4, which is number 8.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

Crazi, where do you get the mileage data? I bet pickups are driven as many or more miles per day on average than cars. Many are simply an alternative choice to a small car, others are used by people who drive from job to job (even though nothing may ever go in the truck's bed), and accrue more miles.

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Regarding the miles per day average, you are correct that trucks are driven a slight bit more on average than cars. 2015 average miles/year studies showed 'light trucks' at 11,712 miles/year/vehicle, 'light-duty vehicles' at 11,346 miles/year/vehicle, and 'cars' at 11,244 miles/year/vehicle. (numbers from here: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/data/10309) Those numbers are not statistically that different, and when you combine that with the fact that twice as many BEV and Hybrid viable platforms are currently being sold than the heavier non-hybridable platforms, the market is absolutely there for electrification across a large swath of the overall fleet.

IndigoBlueWagon said:

And the top four selling vehicles in January 2016 were the Ford F-Series, Chevrolet Silverado, Ram Pickup, and then the Toyota Camry. The first CUV that appears on the list is the Toyota RAV4, which is number 8.

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Yes, but there are also only really 5 models of pickup truck, so yes, while three of those models are higher than any other single model of vehicle, the sheer number of various models of passenger cars means still far more passenger cars are sold. I posted a link to the actual sales data for the current year, and you can clearly see that far more passenger cars have been sold then pickup trucks. That's not really able to be contested.

All of this was discussing GASOLINE demand, so heavier duty platforms were not considered. Gasoline and diesel, though price locked at the crude oil prices, are not locked at deliver rates. A given barrel of crude will 'easily' refine to a given quantity of gasoline and a given quantity of diesel. Shifting from this ratio is possible, but more expensive. Because of this, major market demand shifts result in strange effects. If the market was to drastically reduce gasoline demand over the next few years, due to electrification of more and more of the fleet, it will cause prices of gasoline to drop, forcing refineries to push more away from the 'easy' mix to maximize total profit, causing diesel deliver prices to actually increase (a bit). Now, this change would also result in overall fuel use dropping, which would cause crude prices to drop. The magnitude of those shifts will result in gasoline dropping, but the effect on diesel is unpredictable. It's a strange market, as I'm sure we're all well aware of.

dremd said:

The Nissan Leaf owner in me wants to tell you that battery cooling isn't a big deal, but we all know otherwise (the Leaf has no active cooling of the battery and isn't known for battery longevity).

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That's quite an understatement based on the battery longevity threads I've been reading the past few days, especially in hot climates. Nissan has effectively demonstrated that battery cooling is very important, especially with the battery design and chemistry that they decided to use.

That's one of the reasons my wife and I leased the eGolf (out here in the desert; worse than Arizona where the Nissan Leaf issues were predominant). We will let people know if VW actually resolved the problem like they claimed they did.

bizzle said:

That's one of the reasons my wife and I leased the eGolf (out here in the desert; worse than Arizona where the Nissan Leaf issues were predominant). We will let people know if VW actually resolved the problem like they claimed they did.

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This is the first time I have heard of this. How does the Prius cool its battery? I haven't heard of heat-related failures with its battery.

South Coast Guy said:

This is the first time I have heard of this. How does the Prius cool its battery? I haven't heard of heat-related failures with its battery.

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The prius battery is forced air cooled, there is a pair of vents under the cargo floor.

bizzle said:

That's one of the reasons my wife and I leased the eGolf (out here in the desert; worse than Arizona where the Nissan Leaf issues were predominant). We will let people know if VW actually resolved the problem like they claimed they did.

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If I had been in the market for a new car I would have done the same, quite probably the E-Golf.

VeeDubTDI said:

That's quite an understatement based on the battery longevity threads I've been reading the past few days, especially in hot climates. Nissan has effectively demonstrated that battery cooling is very important, especially with the battery design and chemistry that they decided to use.

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Nissan has improved he battery chemistry in regards to heat resistance on several occasions. My car has the improved but not current battery. I got my Leaf from a cooler state on purpose and my capacity is curently 85% with 33,000 miles which still indicates full capacity on the dash.

http://www.freep.com/story/money/ca...t-system-cars-electrical-needs-grow/84454686/

a little more on mild hybrid technology

bhtooefr said:

I'm actually not sure about that, because full-size pickups are among the most popular vehicles in the US, and they get driven, and use disproportionate amounts of gasoline...

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Exactly.

Somehow I feel that we live in two different worlds in the US. One segment is looking at the next automobile messiah to come and revolutionize the EV auto industry the same way Steve Jobs did with smartphones. The other 'real world' I observe is the one in which the consumer is just 'salivating' when fuel prices are low to go get a loan and get the biggest SUV/pick up truck he/she can afford; one that is going to have a fat chance of averaging above 20 MPG.

Go search for the trends of the average weight of non-commercial vehicle in the US vs. our national average MPG. You will surely see from the 1970's that the average weight as gone up and up and the average MPG has increased very modestly (thanks to not using light duty diesel engines in these bigger cars vs. gasoline and brute force approach).

So how does the EV technology is going to help the majority of the costumers wanting to drive bigger and bigger vehicles?

What is the incentive for the average US buyer to downsize in vehicle selection for non-commercial use?

South Coast Guy said:

This is the first time I have heard of this. How does the Prius cool its battery? I haven't heard of heat-related failures with its battery.

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Isn't it actively cooled by a fan?

bizzle said:

Isn't it actively cooled by a fan?

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Correct.

And they've been using NiMH chemistries, but just moved to Li-Ion for the three-row models of the Prius v (not in any market where it's actually called the Prius v), the Prius Plug-In, and some trim levels of Gen 4 Prius (and the Prime).

tikal said:

Exactly.

Somehow I feel that we live in two different worlds in the US. One segment is looking at the next automobile messiah to come and revolutionize the EV auto industry the same way Steve Jobs did with smartphones. The other 'real world' I observe is the one in which the consumer is just 'salivating' when fuel prices are low to go get a loan and get the biggest SUV/pick up truck he/she can afford; one that is going to have a fat chance of averaging above 20 MPG.

Go search for the trends of the average weight of non-commercial vehicle in the US vs. our national average MPG. You will surely see from the 1970's that the average weight as gone up and up and the average MPG has increased very modestly (thanks to not using light duty diesel engines in these bigger cars vs. gasoline and brute force approach).

So how does the EV technology is going to help the majority of the costumers wanting to drive bigger and bigger vehicles?

What is the incentive for the average US buyer to downsize in vehicle selection for non-commercial use?

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Good post, and that is my point exactly. You cannot force people into something they simply don't want, even if they *should* want it.

And the reason the curb weights have gone up is because everything is getting bigger (have you seen the new Civic? It is a WHALE! ). And they are being saddled with more and more safety devices to save us from ourselves, as well as having to deal with crashing into... ironically... even BIGGER vehicles we must share the road with. It is a snowball of Fail. If we were content to exist with vehicles we had in the late 1970s for example my A1 Golf (Rabbit), we'd already have EVs with reasonable range and cost. But we can't possibly have a car without power EVERYTHING, and automatic EVERYTHING, and seating positions for the whole family 100% of the time even though the whole family only ever gets in the vehicle twice a year.

I mean it is really quite silly if you think about it. If I could buy a "new" 1979 Rabbit just like the one I had, but with some modern twists like newer diesel engine management and disc brakes at all four corners and air conditioning, and with better metallurgy and paint protection, but was otherwise the exact same car, I'd gladly jump on it. Why? Because even today it would likely cost less than $10k brand new. It would get 70 MPG. It would last forever. And it would be VERY practical in every day use. And it would be TOUGH. The seats, door panels, carpeting, headliner, etc. was all very sturdy, simple stuff. No soft touch crap, no lint trap velour, no stain prone felt/flock headliner or trim pieces. No power anything, and it didn't need it. No door wire harness problems or any nonsense like that. There wasn't a single wire in any of its doors. Heck, it didn't even have a hood cable!

I know a car like that would appeal to very few people in this country today, though. But I'd sure like it. The Elio is interesting, but seems to be dragging out forever so who knows if that will ever even get built at all.

Good post, oilhammer. I agree that either consumers want or manufacturers and marketers are convincing us we want a wide array of features on new cars that we probably won't know how to use, much less need. And I would love to have a duplicate of my '78 Rabbit Diesel, but with a 5 speed transmission and A/C, and no passive seat belts, please. What a pain those were.

However, in the absence of such vehicles coming available I've decided that A4/ALH cars are the next best thing. I did have the comfort module fail in my wagon, which I'm told is rare, but it only required I lock the car manually because it doesn't really run anything else. Crank windows and manual mirrors are pretty durable.

I'm looking forward to getting my '99.5 Golf finished. It's my next "new" car. I'll still consider an EV once prices get more sane, but for now rotary pump TDI is pretty hard to beat.

Mind you, although at lower speeds, there is the neighborhood electric vehicle market, which you can buy today, and things like heaters and doors are even optional. And, slightly slower than that, is things like the Organic Transit ELF (although I think it has some glaring design mistakes for its intended usage).

bosch e bike

http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-...bosch-takes-us-for-a-rideon-an-eassisted-bike

oilhammer said:

Good post, and that is my point exactly. You cannot force people into something they simply don't want, even if they *should* want it.
And the reason the curb weights have gone up is because everything is getting bigger (have you seen the new Civic? It is a WHALE! ). And they are being saddled with more and more safety devices to save us from ourselves, as well as having to deal with crashing into... ironically... even BIGGER vehicles we must share the road with. It is a snowball of Fail. If we were content to exist with vehicles we had in the late 1970s for example my A1 Golf (Rabbit), we'd already have EVs with reasonable range and cost. But we can't possibly have a car without power EVERYTHING, and automatic EVERYTHING, and seating positions for the whole family 100% of the time even though the whole family only ever gets in the vehicle twice a year.
I mean it is really quite silly if you think about it. If I could buy a "new" 1979 Rabbit just like the one I had, but with some modern twists like newer diesel engine management and disc brakes at all four corners and air conditioning, and with better metallurgy and paint protection, but was otherwise the exact same car, I'd gladly jump on it. Why? Because even today it would likely cost less than $10k brand new. It would get 70 MPG. It would last forever. And it would be VERY practical in every day use. And it would be TOUGH. The seats, door panels, carpeting, headliner, etc. was all very sturdy, simple stuff. No soft touch crap, no lint trap velour, no stain prone felt/flock headliner or trim pieces. No power anything, and it didn't need it. No door wire harness problems or any nonsense like that. There wasn't a single wire in any of its doors. Heck, it didn't even have a hood cable!
I know a car like that would appeal to very few people in this country today, though. But I'd sure like it. The Elio is interesting, but seems to be dragging out forever so who knows if that will ever even get built at all.

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Here are some of the improvements I like on cars today: 1. anti-lock brakes (saved me from running over a woman who decided to run out in the street without looking). 2. Stability control. 3. Electronic ignition (spent enough time screwing around with distributors and spark plug lines). 4. Electronic fuel injection (produces better mileage and power). 5. Automatic transmission (I am not a cyborg). 6. Power windows and door locks. 7. Comfortable seating and a quiet cockpit,

South Coast Guy said:

Here are some of the improvements I like on cars today:

1. anti-lock brakes (saved me from running over a woman who decided to run out in the street without looking).

2. Stability control.

3. Electronic ignition (spent enough time screwing around with distributors and spark plug lines).

4. Electronic fuel injection (produces better mileage and power).

5. Automatic transmission (I am not a cyborg).

6. Power windows and door locks.

7. Comfortable seating and a quiet cockpit,

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I can live without power everything just fine!

Give me the safety improvements(air bags, disc brakes, abs & traction control) and material improvements(rust prevention technology & crumple zones) on a 6 sp manual trans & steering in a Polo size TDI......

with manual windows....maybe Power locks as an option...

Only option I really want or need is cc & ac as an option.....

Get yourself a ForTwo.

saw a restored mid 70s X19 on a freeway last night,wow!that thing looked small!

oilhammer said:

Good post, and that is my point exactly. You cannot force people into something they simply don't want, even if they *should* want it.

And the reason the curb weights have gone up is because everything is getting bigger (have you seen the new Civic?

It is a WHALE! ). And they are being saddled with more and more safety devices to save us from ourselves, as well as having to deal with crashing into... ironically... even

BIGGER vehicles we must share the road with. It is a snowball of Fail.

If we were content to exist with vehicles we had in the late 1970s for example my A1 Golf (Rabbit), we'd already have EVs with reasonable range and cost. But we can't possibly have a car without power

EVERYTHING, and automatic EVERYTHING, and seating positions for the whole family 100% of the time even though the whole family only ever gets in the vehicle twice a year.

I mean it is really quite silly if you think about it. If I could buy a "new" 1979 Rabbit just like the one I had,

but with some modern twists like newer diesel engine management and disc brakes at all four corners and air conditioning, and with better metallurgy and paint protection, but was otherwise the exact same car,

I'd gladly jump on it. Why? Because even today it would likely cost less than $10k brand new. It would get 70 MPG.

It would last forever. And it would be VERY practical in every day use. And it would be TOUGH.

The seats, door panels, carpeting, headliner, etc. was all very sturdy, simple stuff.

No soft touch crap, no lint trap velour, no stain prone felt/flock headliner or trim pieces.

No power anything, and it didn't need it. No door wire harness problems or any nonsense like that.

There wasn't a single wire in any of its doors. Heck, it didn't even have a hood cable!

I know a car like that would appeal to very few people in this country today, though. But I'd sure like it.

The Elio is interesting, but seems to be dragging out forever so who knows if that will ever even get built at all.

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I am with you, I have for years wished they would have brought the Polo TDI to the US, that car was plenty big for 4 people....

And on the A1 Rabbits, I many times carried 4 people(adults) around in that thing....

I saw a restored mid 70s X19 going down a freeway last night, wow! that thing looked small compared to all the whale SUV's & Pukeups.....Even looked small compared to my A4 Jetta...

http://www.sae.org/smartgrid/sae-j2954-status_1-2012.pdf

is a little dated, but has interesting questions.

the whole concept really puts a different take on the needed battery size vs range.

it also looks like the wireless interface ties in with other vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-other stuff issues.

The problem with J2954, though, is that it's currently only a wireless charging when parked standard (and, 22 kW max, in future revisions of the standard - so, basically, the top end of level 2 charging). Useful, but ultimately not what's REALLY needed, and 22 kW isn't enough power.

Conversely, wireless charging in motion systems would have rather high infrastructure cost, though, but they do exist...