VW Ramps Up Electric Cars

turbobrick240

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I agree that the autopilot system is almost too good. To the point where many owners become complacent and treat it as though it were fully autonomous. It's hard to remain totally alert and ready to take over at a moment's notice when the car seems to be doing such a good job of driving itself. Real world driving (especially off highway) is an incredibly complex task that will take many years for fully autonomous systems to master. But, I would contend that the enhanced cruise control systems(like autopilot)we have today are already saving lives.

https://insideevs.com/nhtsa-tesla-model-3-safest-vehicle-tested/
 
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tikal

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I agree that the autopilot system is almost too good. To the point where many owners become complacent and treat it as though it were fully autonomous. It's hard to remain totally alert and ready to take over at a moment's notice when the car seems to be doing such a good job of driving itself. Real world driving (especially off highway) is an incredibly complex task that will take many years for fully autonomous systems to master. But, I would contend that the enhanced cruise control systems(like autopilot)we have today are already saving lives.
https://insideevs.com/nhtsa-tesla-model-3-safest-vehicle-tested/
My prediction: as the rate of sales with vehicles having some kind of 'autopilot' go up the cost/benefit to society is going to become proportionally more negative in the foreseeable future (next few years perhaps).
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Just heard on the radio this morning 2026 will be the last year for 'gasoline powered cars' from Volkswagen. Not sure exactly what this means, though. And I doubt it will happen completely that fast, either. If their up and coming EVs flop, that could change things. Carmakers won't make things people do not want to buy. Example: Chevrolet Cruze, Malibu, etc. Going away in a couple years, taking after Ford. Trucks and SUVs will still be available though.
 

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kjclow

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Just heard on the radio this morning 2026 will be the last year for 'gasoline powered cars' from Volkswagen. Not sure exactly what this means, though. And I doubt it will happen completely that fast, either. If their up and coming EVs flop, that could change things. Carmakers won't make things people do not want to buy. Example: Chevrolet Cruze, Malibu, etc. Going away in a couple years, taking after Ford. Trucks and SUVs will still be available though.
It could be, like Volvo, that the announcement really means VW will not offer any vehicle that does not have some type of electric drive or assist. So at a minimum, every VWAG vehicle will be some type of hybrid.
 

tikal

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It could be, like Volvo, that the announcement really means VW will not offer any vehicle that does not have some type of electric drive or assist. So at a minimum, every VWAG vehicle will be some type of hybrid.
At least, with an some type of electric drive or assist, VW SUVs with gasoline engines, might have a chance of giving out consistent above 30 MPG fuel economy.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
VAG's MEB platform is all electric, designed that way, from the start.

They have already given up on hybrids after their two half-hearted (American-targeted) attempts.

Not sure what the time frame roll out is, but the I.D. was supposed to make it for the 2019 MY, with the Crozz, Buzz, and Vizzion following a year or two later.
 
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tikal

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VAG's MEB platform is all electric, designed that way, from the start.

They have already given up on hybrids after their two half-hearted (American-targeted) attempts.

Not sure what the time frame roll out is, but the I.D. was supposed to make it for the 2019 MY, with the Crozz, Buzz, and Vizzion following a year or two later.
1) VW wants to go all electric
2) Americans want 'all SUV'
1) + 2) = $$$$ initially and then some
 

oilhammer

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Interesting article I heard this morning on the radio (well, part of the article) about GM's ever shrinking presence both globally AND domestically. They are no longer innovators and no longer the leader in the market, and seem to be unable to be persuaded to really do much of anything besides build pickup trucks.
 

tikal

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Something is something?

Interesting article I heard this morning on the radio (well, part of the article) about GM's ever shrinking presence both globally AND domestically. They are no longer innovators and no longer the leader in the market, and seem to be unable to be persuaded to really do much of anything besides build pickup trucks.
Well, GM did bother to bring a CUV to the US with a light duty diesel engine giving us upper 30's MPG and a generous torque at a competitive price. Can we call it innovation using American automotive standards (ICE related)?

:p
 

oilhammer

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Well, GM did bother to bring a CUV to the US with a light duty diesel engine giving us upper 30's MPG and a generous torque at a competitive price. Can we call it innovation using American automotive standards (ICE related)?
:p

Not sure how " competitive" the price is, but it is more than its gasoline versions, and (as per usual) only available in a more tarted up trim level. Also, it isn't like they are marketing them at all, most people (even those who just purchased a brand new gasoline fueled Equinox or Terrain) even KNOW that a diesel version exists, let alone is available.... a trend already set a while back with the Cruze. Which, continues to this day, until the last Cruze is built.

GM had the EV1, too, remember? :p The Bolt remains an enigma. On one hand, it is pretty clear they did it out of gratitude (or were TOLD to) to the US gov't and the greenies within, but now the CAFE credits, or carbon credits, or whatever, are going away (was recently told this at a GM tech class) , so whatever "push" there was for those, in my mind very little, will go away.

Boy they have Silverado ads going almost non-stop though. You'll see in the next few months all the non-pickup non-SUV GM adds vanish as they prep the sheeple that nobody needs a mere "car" anyway. Ford already has.

Toyota finally has a hybrid Corolla coming for us, though. ;)
 

tikal

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Ok, 'competitive' in the sense that it is at least a non-luxury diesel CUV for sale.

I am saying this by memory but perhaps the GM Equinox diesel is 'competitively' priced to the Toyota RAV4 gasoline hybrid and I will venture that the performance/fuel economy cost/benefit of the Equinox will be superior in turn (I realize this is somewhat subjective also).

No doubt about the GM 'non-marketing' of the Equinox or Terrain diesels :-(
 

kjclow

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Equinox diesel: 28 city / 38 highway / 32 overall
Rav4 hybrid: 34 city / 30 highway / 32 overall

fully loaded msrp - the chevy is $400 more.

It really comes down to where are you going to use the vehicle the most. My wife and I are discussing the Rav4 hybrid because of the amount of stop and go city driving she does. The Rav4 hybrid will (should) get better mileage that what she is currently getting in the JSW.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
But the standard issue RAV4 is probably so much less than the hybrid that unless you need/want all the extras, you'll never ever recoup the buy in cost.
 

tikal

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Thanks for providing the information below. I agree that there is a certain amount of variability between a light duty diesel and a hybrid gasoline vehicle based on the percentage of city vs hwy driving. So obviously if you drive mostly city (perhaps 70% or more) then a diesel engine is not the right one.

The way I approach it is looking at the expected averages from databases such as Fuelly, www.fueleconomy.gov and similar with as many accumulated miles as possible. At this point one can say that the Toyota RAV4 hybrid and the Equinox diesel are not new vehicles anymore and have accumulated enough miles to make a reasonable average MPG comparison. So from Fuelly this is what we are getting:

* Equinox diesel: ~36 to 37 MPG. I assume this is in mix driving (city/hwy) with or without AWD
* RAV4 hybrid: ~ 31 to 32 MPG. I assume this is in mix driving (city/hwy)

So from this data we can conclude that, on the average, the Equinox diesel is approximately 16% more efficient than the RAV4 hybrid. This is your expected gain in efficiency between these two vehicles based on thousands and thousands miles of accumulated miles across various conditions and variables. It does not take into account the potential performance improvements (torque) offered by a light duty diesel engine over a gasoline hybrid vehicle, especially with CUV/SUV vehicles with AWD.

Now, if VW, or any other company can successfully develop and market an all electrical CUV/SUV that the average American is willing to purchase, then you got the best of both worlds, efficiency and generous amount of torque!

Equinox diesel: 28 city / 38 highway / 32 overall
Rav4 hybrid: 34 city / 30 highway / 32 overall

fully loaded msrp - the chevy is $400 more.

It really comes down to where are you going to use the vehicle the most. My wife and I are discussing the Rav4 hybrid because of the amount of stop and go city driving she does. The Rav4 hybrid will (should) get better mileage that what she is currently getting in the JSW.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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I have what might be considered an outrageous prediction: Electric cars won't make up any significant percentage of new car sales for the foreseeable future. Why?
  • Fuel prices will remain stable because of new crude oil sources
  • Tax subsidies will be phased out, making electric more expensive for manufacturers and consumers
  • Americans (at least) want SUVs and trucks, not cars, and those vehicles aren't particularly electric-friendly
These reasons, along with many consumers reluctance to try new things, are going to keep electric a small niche for a long time to come, I believe. Or they may just go away altogether...again.
 

aja8888

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I have what might be considered an outrageous prediction: Electric cars won't make up any significant percentage of new car sales for the foreseeable future. Why?
  • Fuel prices will remain stable because of new crude oil sources
  • Tax subsidies will be phased out, making electric more expensive for manufacturers and consumers
  • Americans (at least) want SUVs and trucks, not cars, and those vehicles aren't particularly electric-friendly
These reasons, along with many consumers reluctance to try new things, are going to keep electric a small niche for a long time to come, I believe. Or they may just go away altogether...again.
To add to your first reason (I am still working part time in oil & gas consulting so I have a good pulse on this), besides some new sources of crude oil being found, our recovery rates of crude per field processed is up to 5 times higher than historical averages. This is due to horizontal drilling technology and getting crude out of harder rock (shales).

Unless there is a worldwide incident to drive crude prices much higher (say to well over $100/BBL), expect to see low refined products prices for a long time to come.

Also, if we do see a U.S. recession caused by higher interest rates soon, followed by a drop in consumer spending, mainline car/truck sales will favor ICE and slightly used vehicles. EV's will be just too expensive and with no federal tax credit, the masses will do what's easiest for them.

Here's some light reading on crude oil in the West:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...hold-49-years-worth-of-oil-usgs-idUSKBN1O52IV
 
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turbobrick240

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I predict that this thread will make for interesting reading in 4-5 years. Who knows, in these bizarro times the streets may be lined with rotary payphones at that point. :)
 

IndigoBlueWagon

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This just in, Largest continuous oil and gas resource potential ever assessed found in Texas, New Mexico

https://www.bigcountryhomepage.com/...assessed-found-in-texas-new-mexico/1645379578

Local diesel at $2.69, Regular at $1.94
Good example. I have mixed feelings about this, because it probably doesn't create any incentive for manufacturers to make sell diesel powered vehicles here, either. But heating my house costs less.

This is interesting: https://insideevs.com/mazda-says-no-electric-yes-diesel-gas/

Probably an unpopular approach, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
 

El Dobro

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Good example. I have mixed feelings about this, because it probably doesn't create any incentive for manufacturers to make sell diesel powered vehicles here, either. But heating my house costs less.
This is interesting: https://insideevs.com/mazda-says-no-electric-yes-diesel-gas/
Probably an unpopular approach, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Mazda also said this.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1120218_mazda-plans-new-dedicated-electric-car
 

tikal

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Good example. I have mixed feelings about this, because it probably doesn't create any incentive for manufacturers to make sell diesel powered vehicles here, either. But heating my house costs less.
This is interesting: https://insideevs.com/mazda-says-no-electric-yes-diesel-gas/
Probably an unpopular approach, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
No doubt, it is a 'double edge sword', especially when it comes to light diesel vehicles.

Also, the price of oil has to stay high for years for a change in trend of the type of vehicles and their fuel economy (going down).

Of course the short/mid term future is more and more unpredictable so other scenarios we have not envisioned are also possible.

In general terms, VW will have a better chance of selling more their upcoming EVs in places like Japan, South Korea, China, New Zealand and Western Europe. USA, Canada and Australia will be less likely candidates for EVs in my view as discussed in a few posts above Canada and Australia share some similarities with the US in this regard).
 

kjclow

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Trends will change. How soon is always the real question. It hasn't been that many years back that it was said shale oil and fracking were only profitable when crude was above $85 a barrel. As of this morning, oil is trading in a range from $52-$61 US.

One thing that will change the EV landscape is cheaper, lighter, and faster charge capable batteries. These new battery chemistries will also be more environmentally friendly. When the battery and electric motor costs can start to equal or undercut the costs of an ice, then we will start to see better across the board acceptance.
 

compu_85

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GM had the EV1, too, remember? :p
Yup. And they killed it off right as much better batteries were coming to market, and refused to sell any of the cars made to owners with open checkbooks :rolleyes:

The Bolt may as well have an LG badge on its nose. 90% of the drivetrain is made by LG. If you outsource everything with a car, do you get to complain that the profit margins are low:confused:

-J
 

oilhammer

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Yup. And they killed it off right as much better batteries were coming to market, and refused to sell any of the cars made to owners with open checkbooks :rolleyes:
The Bolt may as well have an LG badge on its nose. 90% of the drivetrain is made by LG. If you outsource everything with a car, do you get to complain that the profit margins are low:confused:
-J

Yeah, too bad GM's takeover of Daewoo is limited to just the cars, as they are #3 after Samsung and LG in South Korean electronics. :p

But to be fair, outsourcing often means HIGHER profits. Example: the Routan. :eek: VAG had zero dollars in R&D on that one, the styling changes and interior revamp was a relatively low cost endeavor, and they had zero dollars in assembly costs to boot.
 
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