Buying the Fixed TDI's From VW Dealers

At last count almost 315,000 vehicles have been signed up for buyback under the emissions program. This will mean that VW and their dealer network will have 315,000 used TDI's to sell, all emissions compliant and road ready. VW claims a less than 1% change in mileage and performance with the fix and if true I may be in the market for a good low mileage TDI depending on the price.
A friend of mine who can no longer drive has a 2012 Passat SEL TDI with only 4000 miles on it. Before the buyback the KBB bluebook price was about $16000 but he will be getting over $29k from VW. I would love to buy the car from VW after the fix but the big question is price. With over 315,000 used TDI's hitting the market at once I think that the retail price for these cars will be less than half of the buyback price due to VW and TDI's now ruined reputation. Even with a new warranty on the used TDI's they in my opinion will be a tough sell.
I would like to hear thoughts and opinions and any news on VW's resale plans.

I hope to get a returned or unsold 2015 GSW with a stick some time in the next 1-2 years.

If I can get one in good condition, for a good price, I'm in.

Fairbanks, AK - Home of the plug in engine block heater, Oops, I'm digressing.

There are just too many unknowns at this point. Will the EPA and CARB approve fixes for the various models? There is little chance that many of the older ones can even come close to the standard. How flexible will the government be? After making such a big stink (no pun there), I can't imagine they are going to rollover. There certainly will not be '315000 emissions compliant' units ever. What percentage will survive? Still unknown.

If a current owner has an approved fix applied, VW will include some additional warranty coverage. But will that be the case if you buy a 'fixed' one from VW? Have heard nothing along those lines.

The cars are not really being returned to a dealer Rather they are being sold back to VWoA. Will there be some type of cherry picking process? Would think so, and am assuming that the best ones will be made available for sale after the fix.

The cars being turned in have to be able to be driven to the dealer under their own power with no other stated requirements. Many will be clunkers with who knows what removed. Straight to death row for those.

Price - whatever the market will bear. If you wanted a good price, you should have jumped six moths ago.

OP, I probably read the same news article you read but didn't interpret it the way you did. My understanding is around 315,000 owners have signed up with VW for EITHER a buy back or to accept the modification and restitution payment.

The number of cars that will actually be repurchased by VWoA is not known and of the cars repurchased no one knows what percentage will be modified and resold in the used market and what percentage will be scrapped.

Early indications are that the unsold 2015 TDI cars will be modified and offered for sale but probably not at discounted prices.

If there is pent up demand for the unsold but two year old '15s propping up prices I expect that recycled and modified 2010 through 2015s will also command inflated prices.

I disagree that TDIs will be marked down and that VW's reputation is ruined. I don't think that's the case at all.

Certainly ten or twenty percent of current owners will abandon their TDIs for battery powered go carts or Japanese gasoline powered econoboxes but many of us still love our TDIs and bear no hard feelings toward VWoA.

Ok we have another one who didn't READ the settlement ...

or at least this forum - where this is covered.

Airpizz6 said:

Fairbanks, AK - Home of the plug in engine block heater, Oops, I'm digressing.

There are just too many unknowns at this point. Will the EPA and CARB approve fixes for the various models? There is little chance that many of the older ones can even come close to the standard. How flexible will the government be? After making such a big stink (no pun there), I can't imagine they are going to rollover. There certainly will not be '315000 emissions compliant' units ever. What percentage will survive? Still unknown.

If a current owner has an approved fix applied, VW will include some additional warranty coverage. But will that be the case if you buy a 'fixed' one from VW? Have heard nothing along those lines.

The cars are not really being returned to a dealer Rather they are being sold back to VWoA. Will there be some type of cherry picking process? Would think so, and am assuming that the best ones will be made available for sale after the fix.

The cars being turned in have to be able to be driven to the dealer under their own power with no other stated requirements. Many will be clunkers with who knows what removed. Straight to death row for those.

Price - whatever the market will bear. If you wanted a good price, you should have jumped six moths ago.

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VW's settlement with the EPA et al DOES NOT require that all the cars have to ABSOLUTELY meet their model year's ORIGINAL standard - they have to meet a reasonable compromise depending on the model year .

scooperhsd said:

or at least this forum - where this is covered.




VW's settlement with the EPA et al DOES NOT require that all the cars have to ABSOLUTELY meet their model year's ORIGINAL standard - they have to meet a reasonable compromise depending on the model year .

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Then maybe you should learn to read. I said nothing about actually meeting the established standards. It is a question of how pliable the EPA and CARB will be. They will have to maintain some level of control else they will come out of this with absolutely none. 'Reasonable' can have a very wide definition set dependent upon where one sits. Is 50% over the limit 'reasonable'? Is 500% over the limit 'reasonable'? And is such a number even achievable?

And just what is this - "There is little chance that many of the older ones can even come close to the standard." supposed to be taken as ?
Hence, my reply that the vehicles do NOT need to meet their original standards - this is already in the settlement agreement. There are modified standards they they WILL need to meet - and I can't imagine VW agreeing to these if they didn't think they could. They are already in enough trouble.

There will not be 315,000 "fixed" cars on the market:

(1) At this point, the approval of the "fix" at all is still up in the air. It could be a steady stream of 315,000 cars to the shredder, never to be seen again. We don't know. Yes, EPA/CARB relaxed their requirements, and I highly doubt the new (relaxed) requirements came from nowhere, and yes, the proposed fix was more-or-less described in the consent decree. So I suspect there is going to be an approved (partial, if you want to call it that) "fix".

(2) Assuming there is an approved "fix", the proportion of owners who take the buyback, versus compensation plus "fix" and keeping the car, is totally unknown. But if the option is presented, some percentage will keep their cars, so not all 315,000 will enter the buyback scheme.

(3) Of those that are bought back, only some portion of them will be economically viable to fix, provide warranty coverage for, and resell. Older model (my guess 2009-2010) - Scrunch. High mileage? Smash. Requires body/interior repair? Shred. Check-engine lamp is on because the HPFP is on its last legs or the DPF is clogged and/or cracked? Bale. Car has been modified from stock (e.g. emissions system removal) in such a manner that it would be costly to put it back to stock (and you can be assured that VW will only sell them as compliant i.e. the new, fixed, definition of stock? Scrap. My guess is that IF there is an approved fix, perhaps a third of the cars bought back will end up being resold. Maybe less. The rest wouldn't be worth doing.

(4) The buyback/repair process is happening over a couple of years, which for VW is a good thing, because spreading out the timeframe reduces the tendency to overwhelm the market ... which would depress prices and tilt the balance more towards scrapping them.

GoFaster said:

There will not be 315,000 "fixed" cars on the market:

(1) At this point, the approval of the "fix" at all is still up in the air. It could be a steady stream of 315,000 cars to the shredder, never to be seen again. We don't know. Yes, EPA/CARB relaxed their requirements, and I highly doubt the new (relaxed) requirements came from nowhere, and yes, the proposed fix was more-or-less described in the consent decree. So I suspect there is going to be an approved (partial, if you want to call it that) "fix".

(2) Assuming there is an approved "fix", the proportion of owners who take the buyback, versus compensation plus "fix" and keeping the car, is totally unknown. But if the option is presented, some percentage will keep their cars, so not all 315,000 will enter the buyback scheme.

(3) Of those that are bought back, only some portion of them will be economically viable to fix, provide warranty coverage for, and resell. Older model (my guess 2009-2010) - Scrunch. High mileage? Smash. Requires body/interior repair? Shred. Check-engine lamp is on because the HPFP is on its last legs or the DPF is clogged and/or cracked? Bale. Car has been modified from stock (e.g. emissions system removal) in such a manner that it would be costly to put it back to stock (and you can be assured that VW will only sell them as compliant i.e. the new, fixed, definition of stock? Scrap. My guess is that IF there is an approved fix, perhaps a third of the cars bought back will end up being resold. Maybe less. The rest wouldn't be worth doing.

(4) The buyback/repair process is happening over a couple of years, which for VW is a good thing, because spreading out the timeframe reduces the tendency to overwhelm the market ... which would depress prices and tilt the balance more towards scrapping them.

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Good points.

I think they'll cut their looses on many of these over 100K, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were disassembled and sold off as parts either. I could even envision this become a little cottage industry for the 2.0 TDIs that remain as VW winds down production and they become a thing of the dustbin of history (at least in the US & Canada).

booty said:

VW claims a less than 1% change in mileage and performance with the fix and if true I may be in the market for a good low mileage TDI depending on the price

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I don't recall reading that 1% number anywhere in official documents. As you say, "if true" it would be a game changer - a drop from 42 to 41.6 MPG and maybe 1-2 HP is perhaps worth considering. However, this number conflicts with what people have reported from Dyno runs in regular vs. test mode - losses in the 10s of HP.

One also would have to ask whether VW would be so dumb in the first place, to go to such great lengths for an increase of 0.6 MPG. Maybe it's worth 5 MPG, pushing your diesel past the best gasoline engines of the early 2010s that were getting mid 30's. But when the return on investment drops into the 1% zone, there are so many other things they could have done for an extra 1-2 MPG and not much $$ (e.g., put low rolling resistance tires like they do on the Prius).

So, given what most engineers agree are the practicalities of this situation, the "fix" for the 2.0L TDIs is likely to be one of two things... (i) a cumbersome urea injection system which will require a lot of work and be very very expensive, or (ii) a computer/chip mod that makes the car run in test mode all the time at the cost of reduced MPG and HP.

How likely do you think it is that VW will buy back a 5 year old car for $6k over blue-book (typical settlement value), then spend $5k on urea mods (best estimate for what that will cost), and then sell it for less than blue-book (necessary to rebuild brand loyalty)? Nope, it's gonna be the chip, and it's gonna be a waaay more than 1% hit to power and efficiency.

TDIinMA said:

Good points.

I think they'll cut their looses on many of these over 100K, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were disassembled and sold off as parts either. I could even envision this become a little cottage industry for the 2.0 TDIs that remain as VW winds down production and they become a thing of the dustbin of history (at least in the US & Canada).

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agreed, I wouldn't be surprised if only 25% of the total pool of cars bought back are fixed (if available) and resold through dealers. The rest will surely be parted and/or scrapped. In my case, both of my cars are certainly getting crushed (09 with 217K and 10 with 232K) and I know I am not alone. These cars were meant to be driven and so many will have prohibitively high miles to make them worth anything other than parts cars

Virgilstar said:

I don't recall reading that 1% number anywhere in official documents. As you say, "if true" it would be a game changer - a drop from 42 to 41.6 MPG and maybe 1-2 HP is perhaps worth considering. However, this number conflicts with what people have reported from Dyno runs in regular vs. test mode - losses in the 10s of HP.

One also would have to ask whether VW would be so dumb in the first place, to go to such great lengths for an increase of 0.6 MPG. Maybe it's worth 5 MPG, pushing your diesel past the best gasoline engines of the early 2010s that were getting mid 30's. But when the return on investment drops into the 1% zone, there are so many other things they could have done for an extra 1-2 MPG and not much $$ (e.g., put low rolling resistance tires like they do on the Prius).

So, given what most engineers agree are the practicalities of this situation, the "fix" for the 2.0L TDIs is likely to be one of two things... (i) a cumbersome urea injection system which will require a lot of work and be very very expensive, or (ii) a computer/chip mod that makes the car run in test mode all the time at the cost of reduced MPG and HP.

How likely do you think it is that VW will buy back a 5 year old car for $6k over blue-book (typical settlement value), then spend $5k on urea mods (best estimate for what that will cost), and then sell it for less than blue-book (necessary to rebuild brand loyalty)? Nope, it's gonna be the chip, and it's gonna be a waaay more than 1% hit to power and efficiency.

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Was the masking for performance or emissions, and are those two things inherently intertwined? I have heard some say they are not, and the cheating was simply to satisfy the EPA requirements but that it will not affect performance all that much when the "fix" is employed (if at all).

That said, if what you suggest is true, and there is a big hit to --- TORQUE or MILEAGE --- then either or is a deal-breaker for me for TDI moving forward. It's simply not worth the headache.

booty said:

At last count almost 315,000 vehicles have been signed up for buyback under the emissions program.

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That puts the current numbers at 69%, well short of the required 85% (or was it 80%?) to be fixed or scraped.

Airpizz6 said:

If a current owner has an approved fix applied, VW will include some additional warranty coverage. But will that be the case if you buy a 'fixed' one from VW? Have heard nothing along those lines.

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IIRC, the new warranty is 4 yr/48K miles on the fixed vehicle regardless of if it is resold. It covers pretty much everything under the hood and exhaust systems.

kjclow said:

That puts the current numbers at 69%, well short of the required 85% (or was it 80%?) to be fixed or scraped.

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It's 85%, but they've got two years to do it.

TDIinMA said:

Was the masking for performance or emissions, and are those two things inherently intertwined? I have heard some say they are not, and the cheating was simply to satisfy the EPA requirements but that it will not affect performance all that much when the "fix" is employed (if at all).

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I'm no automotive engineer, but my understanding is that it's all intertwined. Fuel economy and performance are pretty obviously inversely related (think of a sports car vs. a Prius), but emissions, reliability, and other factors get mixed in as well. Initially (over a decade ago), VW engineers were unable to meet the set of constraints set by governments (emissions and fuel economy) and VW management (performance and perhaps fuel economy and/or reliability), so they developed a cheat that let them get the performance and fuel economy desired at the expense of much worse NOx emissions.

Remember also that we're talking about three different generations of engines and emissions systems. The first-generation cars performed really poorly in terms of emissions -- they're the ones that produced the "up to 40x too much NOx" headlines. By the third generation (2015 models), VW had gotten it much closer to under control -- figures I've seen indicate that the 2015s are "only" over-polluting by a factor of about 2. As I understand it, running the urea system at a higher rate will fix the problem for them, although the settlement requires adding sensors to detect malfunctions, too. This will presumably have little or no impact on performance and fuel economy. I have yet to see anything definitive on why VW continued to cheat for the third-generation cars when cranking up the urea system would have gotten them into compliance. My suspicion is that it was to extend the life of the urea solution so that it needed to be topped up only at oil changes; and/or to reduce wear and tear on those components, thus reducing repair costs. That's just speculation on my part, though.

For the first two generations, fixes may have a greater impact on performance and/or fuel economy, but it's all just speculative at this point; AFAIK, VW isn't sharing details of what they're planning. Even if they were, I wouldn't trust what they're saying.

Buy Fixed Tdi's, don't count on it!

The US Gov will demand that the cars meet emissions. As far as I can tell, VW does not have a fix that will meet the EPA regs. Therefore all the cars will be destroyed. The US Gov will not allow VW to sell these cars in other countries that do not have such BS emissions standards. The Fed Gov also wants these cars to be destroyed, they want you to buy a new car, increase demand, increase price and keep factory workers to further prop up the economy. So they have an incentive to deny VW any kind of fix even if it gets close.

The engineering that I know, the 2009-2015 motors will never get there. They would need a urea after treatment. VW has no plans of spending the money for the ECU changes, exhaust changes, sensors, urea reservoir and even after all of that they still may not meet the EPA regs with the Pump Duese design.

Every other manufacturer has needed the Common Rail with the Urea after treatment to get close. There are too many short comings in the VW design to get there.

It is very unfortunate. They are great cars and Nox emissions are minimal in the grand scheme of things. According to my math, every single (violating) TDI would need to drive 260,000 miles every year just to match the amount of NOx that lightning creates every year and that is at the 40 times number they like to brag about, even though the 40 times is only achieved at full load on the engine, not sure about anyone else, but in the last 2 years I think I have hit full load on the engine twice.

lilsmokey said:

The US Gov will demand that the cars meet emissions. As far as I can tell, VW does not have a fix that will meet the EPA regs. Therefore all the cars will be destroyed. The US Gov will not allow VW to sell these cars in other countries that do not have such BS emissions standards. The Fed Gov also wants these cars to be destroyed, they want you to buy a new car, increase demand, increase price and keep factory workers to further prop up the economy. So they have an incentive to deny VW any kind of fix even if it gets close.

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Meeting the current standards is a nonstarter. As was pointed out above, fixes are to be reviewed by EPA and CARB based on achievement of a reasonable degree of improvement over the pre-fix version. I don't see the government bending over backwards, though. There will be some softening but how much?? Who knows? But the use of the word 'reasonable' bothers me the most. I spent 41 years in the federal government. And I can safely say the word 'reasonable' does not exist in the federal dictionary.

lilsmokey said:

The US Gov will demand that the cars meet emissions.

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The Government has already agreed to accept less than full compliance in the settlement documents (IIRC, appendix B to the DOJ settlement has all the gory details).

Therefore all the cars will be destroyed.

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There's no such requirement; they can be parted out with the exception of a few specific parts (ECU, DPF, probably a few others).

The engineering that I know, the 2009-2015 motors will never get there. They would need a urea after treatment.

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All the affected Passats, and all the 2015 cars, already have the DEF system, so this is only an issue for the 2009-2014 Beetle/Golf/Jettas. As noted above, the government has already agreed to accept emissions at a level that VW apparently believes can be reached without a DEF system on those cars.

VW has no plans of spending the money for the ECU changes, exhaust changes, sensors, urea reservoir and even after all of that they still may not meet the EPA regs with the Pump Duese design.

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First, the Pump Duese isn't in the least relevant, as these are all common-rail engines. Second, VW's otherwise spending quite a bit more money to buy the cars back, just to do very little of value with them. Either way they're spending an assload of money, but there's a good chance that the cost to develop, test, and implement the fix is less than the cost to buy back all the cars.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if, in certifying the "fixed" cars, they are caught cheating all over again.

k1xv said:

Wouldn't it be a hoot if, in certifying the "fixed" cars, they are caught cheating all over again.

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Yeah, a hoot. You clever guy you.

Has it dawned on anyone else that this fits all their narratives to a tee? I'm not arguing for a conspiracy per se, but this sure was a nice "crisis" they are not letting go to waste, if you catch my drift.

Think about it, we have a blatant war on coal. So this extends that to the "dirtiest" of "dirty" fossils fuels, long under assault from environmentalismists.

Big Govt = benevolent, all-knowing protectors of the environment and saving lives (i.e. the good guys)!
Evil huge (now CHEATING!!!) global corporation = greedy pernicious capitalist pigs (i.e. the bad guys)!

So they get this high profile court case with an admission of guilt, resignation, and shame for the CEO. The law-breakers must bow down to the the lords of PC, recant their sins, repeat the standard ideology, and all while begging for forgiveness. The punishment is to right the wrong (i.e. the "fix") and then pay BILLIONS to the "green" energy alternatives, i.e. the knights in shining armor for the new religion of peace & harmony ushering in Utopia. In other words, they get to pick the winners and losers and again reassert their benevolence and nobility while demonizing the enemy (i.e. competition) further.

How could this have worked out any better for them? All I can say is, when's the movie coming out, or Michael Moore "documentary"?

People really do love a good story. So they get these things framed like soap operas and dramatic tales, and it mirrors the ones they create for "Big Oil" and the evil Koch Bros, etc. when you come right down to it. And all of it based on a pittance of reality.

J.R. said:

I hope to get a returned or unsold 2015 GSW with a stick some time in the next 1-2 years.
If I can get one in good condition, for a good price, I'm in.

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Supply and demand will have a lot to do with the price.

that is you can even FIND one

Not going into personal reasons, ~~ mine could-might be for sale ~~ before the buy back

PRICE?

VW buyback amount (plus)

booty said:

A friend of mine who can no longer drive has a 2012 Passat SEL TDI with only 4000 miles on it. Before the buyback the KBB bluebook price was about $16000 but he will be getting over $29k from VW. I would love to buy the car from VW after the fix but the big question is price. With over 315,000 used TDI's hitting the market at once I think that the retail price for these cars will be less than half of the buyback price due to VW and TDI's now ruined reputation. Even with a new warranty on the used TDI's they in my opinion will be a tough sell.


I would like to hear thoughts and opinions and any news on VW's resale plans.

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Having no idea on VW and the cars they buy back regarding buy back, and or resale price.

For sure most of of them are going to be higher miles, and or crushed

But having a 3,150 miles 2015 Golf DSG and having 'bout 2 years to get my buy back....

Who can say what might happen -- one thing for sure I would never need to sell it for less than official VW BB.

Does anyone know when they are likely to be back on the market?
I sold my 2013 to my mom planning to buy another one. I want to buy one as soon as they're put back on the market.

BEFORE any 2015's the dealers MAY have that are not already sitting with a deposit on them - the cars will be REQUIRED to get the fix for their model / model year. So, first the fix needs to be approved.

How many active members do we have here on TDI Club? And of those, how many would be clamoring to get back into a fixed TDI?

Once you get past those people, how many members of the general public are dying to buy a fixed, used TDI?

Compare that total to the number of fixed TDI that might hit the market. I think you are going to see a vast oversupply, and a buyers market.

k1xv said:

Wouldn't it be a hoot if, in certifying the "fixed" cars, they are caught cheating all over again.

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I find this very doubtful, actually.

k1xv said:

How many active members do we have here on TDI Club? And of those, how many would be clamoring to get back into a fixed TDI?

Once you get past those people, how many members of the general public are dying to buy a fixed, used TDI?

Compare that total to the number of fixed TDI that might hit the market. I think you are going to see a vast oversupply, and a buyers market.

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Very much so.

k1xv said:

How many active members do we have here on TDI Club? And of those, how many would be clamoring to get back into a fixed TDI?

Once you get past those people, how many members of the general public are dying to buy a fixed, used TDI?

Compare that total to the number of fixed TDI that might hit the market. I think you are going to see a vast oversupply, and a buyers market.

Click to expand...

if the fix doesn't cut the guts out of performance, and i can find a 15 GSW without the big hole in the roof, and they cut me a nice deal, I would swap my jsw. I know, lots of if and ands followed by one big "probably not"!

kjclow said:

if the fix doesn't cut the guts out of performance, and i can find a 15 GSW without the big hole in the roof, and they cut me a nice deal, I would swap my jsw. I know, lots of if and ands followed by one big "probably not"!

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Before I decided to buy an Audi now instead of waiting for a GSW I visited the Lubbock VW dealer and talked with a sales manager to find out what 2015s they had in inventory. He was helpful and printed out copies of four or five new 2015 GSWs. All were S models so I wasn't interested.

The S model is the base model without the panoramic roof and other extra cost features right?

I don't think it will be very hard to find an S model.