I'm starting to think fighting terrorism in the middle east is just a means to an end. That end being having a base in the Middle East, for dealing with China and their friends(Iran, Syria, etc).
But anyway, we have the US building a National Missile Defense, China with an ever increasing quantity of nukes and now a new means of deployment, Russia creating some new magical nuke, Iran getting closer to having nukes every day... does anyone think maybe the Cold War never really ended?
And where does Europe stand in all of this?
China first-
Ok, military budget:
2001- Increased 17.7%
2002- Increased 17.6%
2003- Increased 9.6%
2004- Increased 11.6%
That's over 150% increase over four years.
Navy:
Starting in 1994, they have started buying used aircraft carriers from other countries for the purpose of studying and reverse engineering. They have purchased at least four, and are now building their own. It won't be quite a full-size aircraft carrier, but more like a heavy aircraft cruiser. They are also updating their navy bases and ports to accomodate ships like this.
They are now building second generation nuclear submarines, as well as affecting further modernization of their non-nuclear submarine fleet. They are designing and building frigates and destroyers. In addition, they are creating amphibious landing ships which can carry about 15 tanks and 200 soldiers.
Of course, in combination with all of this is modernization of air power and command and control technology. This is more than defensive, this is China attempting to achieve a strong maritime power status with offensive capabilities. It certainly won't be an overnight transformation, likely taking 50 years before they are even remotely "up to date" or even present with a useful operational Navy.
Space based and missile defense:
China has increased it's ICBM and nuclear capablities greatly over the last 10-20 years. A couple years ago they sent a manned craft to space. Seeing where this is going, the US now wants to accelerate our National Missile Defense program, and start a space-based military program.
The EU is feeling extremely irrelevant and wants to decrease the United States' standing as the lone world super power, as stated openly by Chirac. So the EU tries to encourage us NOT to build a National Missile Defense or space-based program by threatening to remove arms embargos with China. So now we have the EU wanting to sell arms and technology to China(who are known for sharing with North Korea, Iran, and Syria).
The Europeans figure this can go one of two ways:
1.) The US complies, and does not continue with NMD or star wars programs. Thus limiting us from extending our super-power status.
2.) The US does not comply, so the EU then begins arms trade with China. Thus increasing the relevance of China and their friends. Again, limiting our stance as the only standing super power.
Clearly the Europeans are trying to gain relevance in any way they can, even if it means selling arms and technology to China with their <sarcasm>wonderful</sarcasm> human rights record. Any ideas that China is distancing itself from communism just don't add up to me. They open up, just enough to keep that economy growing, and that's it. The economy funds military and gives them a little more bargaining power.
Note, this the same Europe whose constituant nations were cheating the Oil for Food program and helping Saddam to violate sanctions, and were providing Iraq with weapons(some prohibited, some not).
Surely China is not an imminent threat today, and neither is the EU. But to look at China's military build-up(combined with a history much like that of Germany before WWI) and ignore it would be like sitting on a rail-road track and hoping that freight train is going to change lanes. This would seem to agree with the assessment of our military needs from the original post.
Hmm, quell terrorism roots in the Middle East. US now has a friend or two and standing military presence in the Middle East(on top of or in exchange for what has been standing in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait since Gulf War 1). Closer to China, and closer to countries who are friends with China. Maybe the whole terrorism and freedom in the Middle East thing is just a means to a greater end.
Ok, tell me I'm crazy.