Study: 1 in 10 US Vehicles To Be Diesels by 2015

http://www.hybridcars.com/news/study-says-1-10-us-vehicles-will-be-diesels-2015-45343.html


Basing its bullishness for diesel proliferation on a study done by Carnegie Mellon University, German company Bosch says to get ready for 10 percent of all American vehicles to be diesel powered within the next three years. Said study, which was undertaken in 2009, compiled information based on public understanding of diesel passenger vehicles and factors affecting diesel purchase by consumers.
Additionally, more recent information from CNW Research has apparently bolstered the argument, citing greater awareness of clean diesel technology and lower cost premiums for diesel against gasoline than in the past.
It’s long been recognized that diesel cars can be up to 30-percent more fuel efficient than their gasoline counterparts and can in cases deliver a driving range almost double – or as much as 700 miles versus a typical 350-400 mile radius for gasoline cars.
As a result, provided the vehicle is maintained, diesels can deliver significant cost savings for their drivers over the course of ownership, something that would clearly resonate with most people.
That said, Bosch’s assertion that the U.S. diesel market will soar to 10 percent in under three years seems a more than a little on the optimistic side.
However, the data the company bases its argument on does include pickup trucks, and in the heavy-duty segment, diesels already have a more than 50 percent take rate. Currently however, not a single diesel-powered vehicle offered in the U.S. achieves true “mainstream” status, although the VW Jetta TDI comes close.
And more are on their way, including the Chevrolet Cruze diesel, based on GM's successful compact that sold 232,000 units last year. Further, Jeep is offering yet another oil-burning Grand Cherokee, and Audi will have its diesel A4 – based on its best selling model. And with possibly a Mazda diesel on the market too, there are indicators diesels could see significant gains in coming years.

Okay, this analysis was based on 2009 data. Now it is 2012. Are we seeing the predicted change in use of diesel passenger vehicles?

No but in arrears (2009 NHTSA figures), the passenger diesel percentage was up to 5 %. So what is in question are additional diesels sales in 2010, 2011 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and of course the figures would be in arrears in 2016 So based on a 258.8 M passenger vehicle population (2009) , current 5% = 12.94 M diesel passenger vehicles. 10% (projected) would indicate 5% more or 12.94 M vehicles more to go. So called "GOOD" yearly sales are in the 14-16 M range. 2009 was a tough year and was more like 9.5 to 10.5 M in sales. Passenger diesel sales of course would be an unknown percentage of yearly sales. So to reach 2015/2016, the full 10% would take app yearly (projected) sales of 2.16 M diesels, 15.4% to 13.5%.

Not gonna happen by 2015.

Another over-optimistic assumption by people who love diesels. Don't get me wrong, I love 'em too and want to see many more car models with that option. But, a great majority of Americans are just not interested.

Bill

Here's my reply to one of the snippy posts to the article:
In NC and SC, diesel has kept a fairly constant 30 cent margin over regular unleaded gasoline (rug), but you really have to look at the percentage difference. I noticed rug at $3.56 yesterday and diesel at $3.85. That's a difference of 29 cents or 8%. In my clean diesel, I get an average of 30% higher miles per gallon than the equivalent gas model. 33 miles per gallon versus 44 miles per gallon on highway. So for a 14 gallon tank, the gasser will give you 462 miles at a cost of $49.84 or 10.8 cents per mile. The diesel will give you 616 miles at a cost of $53.90 or 8.8 cents per mile. Over 100,000 miles, the diesel will save just over $2000 (assuming fuel costs remain constant) and about 760 gallons of fuel. Extrapolate those numbers to a point where 10% of the 6,000,000 new cars were sold as diesels. That would equate to a fuel savings of over 450 million gallons at 100,000 miles for each car.
As for electric vehicles, where does the power come from? Can I jump in my electric car and go visit my daughter that lives 150 miles away? Where will I recharge every 50 miles of the trip when most of the trip is through very small towns?

Ruking, I think that you are reading the article slightly wrong. My assumption was that by 2015, 10% of the new car sales would be diesel, not 10% of the cars on the road. If there are models, like the JSW, that take off as primarily diesels, then that 10% number does not seem that difficult to reach. Last I saw, the JSW was selling around 80% diesel. If VW and others would actually bring over something like the bluetech Polo, then I think we would see diesel sales really take off.

Ok, reread the article and your assumptions are correct on the 10% on the road by 2015. There was another article posted on here that specifically said new cars in 2015.

kjclow said:

Here's my reply to one of the snippy posts to the article:
In NC and SC, diesel has kept a fairly constant 30 cent margin over regular unleaded gasoline (rug), but you really have to look at the percentage difference. I noticed rug at $3.56 yesterday and diesel at $3.85. That's a difference of 29 cents or 8%. In my clean diesel, I get an average of 30% higher miles per gallon than the equivalent gas model. 33 miles per gallon versus 44 miles per gallon on highway. So for a 14 gallon tank, the gasser will give you 462 miles at a cost of $49.84 or 10.8 cents per mile. The diesel will give you 616 miles at a cost of $53.90 or 8.8 cents per mile. Over 100,000 miles, the diesel will save just over $2000 (assuming fuel costs remain constant) and about 760 gallons of fuel. Extrapolate those numbers to a point where 10% of the 6,000,000 new cars were sold as diesels. That would equate to a fuel savings of over 450 million gallons at 100,000 miles for each car.
As for electric vehicles, where does the power come from? Can I jump in my electric car and go visit my daughter that lives 150 miles away? Where will I recharge every 50 miles of the trip when most of the trip is through very small towns?

Ruking, I think that you are reading the article slightly wrong. My assumption was that by 2015, 10% of the new car sales would be diesel, not 10% of the cars on the road. If there are models, like the JSW, that take off as primarily diesels, then that 10% number does not seem that difficult to reach. Last I saw, the JSW was selling around 80% diesel. If VW and others would actually bring over something like the bluetech Polo, then I think we would see diesel sales really take off.

Ok, reread the article and your assumptions are correct on the 10% on the road by 2015. There was another article posted on here that specifically said new cars in 2015.

Click to expand...

No. Then you read the title and article incorrectly then.

..."German company Bosch says to get ready for 10 percent of all American vehicles to be diesel powered within the next three years."...

While I understand your assumption of 10% of yearly sales, .the quote also CERTAINLY does not say what you said or took it to mean. Now you might disagree or have an opinion on what was said, but that is another issue. I am not sure what your stated quoted response relates to the issue of 10% of all American vehicles being diesel by 2015. Given that 95% use RUG to PUG, a small minority might care enough to switch based on your quote.

The title is/was misleading....I am sure they were implying 10% of NEW vehicle sales.

RNDDUDE said:

The title is/was misleading....I am sure they were implying 10% of NEW vehicle sales.

Click to expand...

It is easy to put that in context also. 10% of yearly new car sales (14-16 M ) is 1.4 M to 1.6 M. Given 2009 258.8 M vehicles that is a growth rate of .0054 to .00618 per year.