www.tdiclub.com

Economy - Longevity - Performance
The #1 Source of TDI Information on the Web!
Forums Articles Links Meets
Orders TDI Club Cards TDIFest 2016 Gone, but not forgotten VAG-Com List Unit Conversions TDIClub Chat Thank You

Order your TDIClub merchandise and help support TDIClub


Go Back   TDIClub Forums > VW TDI Discussion Areas > TDI News/Tech

TDI News/Tech This Forum is for the posting of TDI news related items.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old April 15th, 2008, 13:53   #1
twigless
Veteran Member
 
twigless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Florida
Default Panel predicts diesels could hit 20 percent of U.S. market by 2020

This is the most ambitious estimate I've heard so far... sounds great to me! I actually agree with these numbers. I think that their guesses on hybrids are pretty close to accurate as well. As standard gas vehicles get more fuel-saving items like DSG-type transmissions (vs traditional autobox), direct injection, cylinder deactivation, brake regeneration to power the alternator, better cD, etc, I think that the current appeal of hybrids will wane.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.autoweek.com/apps/pbcs.dl...4130/1530/FREE

Panel predicts diesels could hit 20 percent of U.S. market by 2020

By GREG MIGLIORE
About 20 percent of the vehicles sold in the United States could run on diesel fuels by the end of the next decade, a panel of auto executives said on Monday, April 14, at SAE World Congress in Detroit.

The panel also expects hybrid technologies to be in about 10 percent of vehicles by 2020 as consumers' thirst for fuel-sipping products continues, members said.

The figures were suggested by BorgWarner CEO Tim Manganello. Other panelists, including Ford product chief Derrick Kuzak and Ed Mantey, a Toyota engineering vice president, agreed with the forecast.

Manganello based his predictions on patterns in European markets, where consumers have made diesels popular.

"Europe is a leading indicator for powertrain technology," he said.

Meanwhile, Magna co-CEO Don Walker suggested there could be as many as 765,000 hybrids on U.S. roads by 2013, though he expects diesels and other technologies to ultimately win out with consumers.
__________________
I am Business Manager for a VW/BMW/Mercedes/Porsche/Volvo dealer in N Florida... ask questions!
2008 Z4 3.0si, prem, sport, step, heated M seats
2000 Golf GLS TDI 4-door 5m 164k+ (w/VanAaken)
1999 Cabrio GLS 5m (84k)
2002 Jetta GLS TDI auto (sold@76k)
1998 Jetta Wolfsburg auto (sold@114k)
1986 Golf GL 1.8 gas 5m (sold@138k)
1988 Scirocco 1.8 5m (sold@109k)
1990 Corrado G60 5m (parted@142k)
(and Honda, Fords, GM, BMW, Volvo, Jeep)
my brother: http://www.JeffLudes.com
twigless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 15th, 2008, 16:56   #2
n1das
TDIClub Enthusiast
Veteran Member
 
n1das's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Nashua, NH, USA
Fuel Economy: Who cares? It's a DIESEL! Great fuel economy comes as a bonus!
Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by drwho
I hope this is true. Does not look encouraging in the short run right now with diesel prices exceeding gasoline. Maybe it is going to change.
Don't worry because it IS going to change. We're headed into gasoline season soon and gasoline will soon be right up where diesel is. Sit back and pass the popcorn because it's going to be a real screamer of a summer for the gas guzzlers!

The diesel vs. gasoline price spread has put some TDIers on the fence regarding whether to sell trade their TDI for a gasser. I suspect some will sell their TDIs and get into a gasser and then later wish they had held onto their TDI.

Not to worry. You're still ahead with your TDI right now.

The high fuel prices and the direction they're headed over the long term have me wanting to KEEP my TDIs (both of them). They are absolutely NOT for sale at ANY price. It would be foolish to get out of my TDIs based on fuel prices alone.
__________________
Why DIESEL is better: (Courtesy TDIclub forum member wxman)
PM - https://sites.google.com/view/lmarzccm/home
Air Toxics - https://sites.google.com/view/loren-marz-ccm/home
Ozone Precursors - https://sites.google.com/view/lorenmarz-ccm/home
General - https://sites.google.com/view/emissions-general/home
n1das is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 15th, 2008, 17:15   #3
D_Bill
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: SE Pa
Fuel Economy: around town 40-42 hiway 52-54
Default self-serving industry

FWIW

The older I get the more I tend to ignore the ramblings of most and instead try to follow actions - seems to me at least more reasonable. So in that vein I am suspicious of oil industry actions that seem to become self serving. For example - oil industry : " we need tax breaks and big loop holes to fund exploration " reality : huge profits. Or oil industry : " we need to drill in the wilderness , offshore ( substitute any locale of your choosing here ) " reality : oil prices don't go down - rather oil profits go up.

So the reality that I believe is happening is that as previous "third world" countries are becoming industrialized the demand for oil will spiral upwards. IMHO we are on the right track by insisting on the most efficient auto ( high mpg and low pollution per mile ), yet the people that have the money will not come around quitely. I see fuel going to $5/gal this summer despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. However I don't believe that means that we should sacrifice the economy or environment. So no I don't think the oil industry should get access to wilderness areas - rather let's conserve . If we let them drill anywhere they want, they would just want to drill some more somewhere else, as they will always claim ( or manufacture ? ) a crisis to make us drop our standards/ideals. Instead, we should point out that by switching to ( bio ? - especially as its environment friendly ) diesel, what we have, would go all that much further. One way to do this would be to follow through with high mpg requirements for all vehicles and not counting pollution per gallon or parts per million but rather we should push for counting pollution( parts ) per mile.

So trying to get back on track - the idea of 20% sounds good but 40% would be much better.

And pushing for no oil industry involvement with biodiesel ( till it hits the filling station anyways - maybe with a fedl requirement that there be at least one pump per station ? or that all diesel gradually become more biodiesel like b5 this year, b10 next then b20 and so on ? ) would be another great step - at least IMHO.

Of course I'm preaching to the choir here - thanks for letting me ramble . . .
D_Bill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 15th, 2008, 17:57   #4
dayne66
Veteran Member
 
dayne66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The Island,BC
Default 2 outa 3 are TDIs here in Nanaimo

my daughter just did a 'count' here in the nanaimo/parksville/qualicum area on sunday as we drove around running errands.

VWs: 77

TDIs: 51

That's 2 outa 3 that are TDIs!!!
__________________
Traded for '14 Jeep GC Summit 9.85l/100km so far
dayne66 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 15th, 2008, 18:04   #5
97TDIStu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Pennsylvania
Default If you or I found oil in our backyard, what would we charge?

Very, very good post D Bill. Excellent points made on all counts. Now, I'm not trying to start a quarrel with anybody else, but adding to the point that D Bill made if I could. Even if we allow oil companies to drill in Alaska or offshore of the West Coast or wherever in the U.S. or its territories, it won't make one bit of difference in what we pay for oil because what we pay for oil and thus, gas and diesel is dictated by OPEC production limits because they control the vast majority of the world's oil supply even though the U.S. amazingly gets the vast majority of its supply from Canada and Mexico. ( Which by the way, Mexico's fields are in decline by 10% each year.)
If you or I were to pull a Jed Clampett and find oil in our back yard ( assuming we had mineral rights to it) why in the world would we charge less for it than the going rate? Even if the oil was found on Federal land it's not as if the government would nationalize it to serve it up to a thirsty American public at a lower cost. I digress...Unless we found such a vast supply in yours or my backyard literally ( which is unlikely) which would flood the marketplace with supply and then cause a glut which would then allow prices to plummet. But even then OPEC would just cut its production , thus driving prices back up. That's why all this hubbub about finding oil in Minnesota or Idaho or wherever it was last week or so was all bunk. Just because oil might be found on American soil doesn't mean it would benefit prices in the U.S. at all, in the least. Until we ween ourselves off this stuff we are doomed to pay for it at a cost that we simply cannot control. PERIOD. IMHO
97TDIStu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 03:59   #6
buckeye96
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Alexandria, VA
TDI(s): 2005 Jetta ?
Default

What always kills me is that people never look at the cost per mile. Diesel will have to be almost double of RUG for my TDI to start to equal the cost per mile of a gasser.
buckeye96 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 04:33   #7
RabbitGTDJoe
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Southern Tier, Central New York
Default

Take a look at this guys...I got scared too when I first thought about the prices of diesel vs. gasser...
I'm getting ready to do my second mTDI (first was the mk1...this time around...a b3 variant (so I'll have two in the arsenal)).

However, a friend made an excel spreadsheet with comparitive costs vs. mileage between the two fuels.

From our home/local forum....
http://fastdubs.org/fuslit/diesel_ga...mparison-1.xls

Makes sense.

Joe
RabbitGTDJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 07:28   #8
dieselyeti
Veteran Member
 
dieselyeti's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Fairfield CT
Default

Twig, I just saw the article on AW's site and ya beat me to the punch...

n1das, I've had the same thoughts about selling my '98 but with the intention of buying a Mustang convertible. With 205k I should probably hang onto my Yeti for a winter beater though. The .80 difference between RUG and diesel is making me nuts - I filled up last night and saw the price had gone from $4.13 to 4.35 in the two weeks since the last topoff.

Ouch.

I know the price is seasonal, and ULSD was less than RUG last summer, but I can't figure out why there's such a huge disparity between the two right now. I'm hoping the price of diesel does come down this summer - and not just seeing the price of RUG rising to match it...
__________________
98 Jetta TDI "Deerslayer" (clattering along somewhere in NY)
09 Jetta TDI (traded back to Mr Farnham)
12 Passat TDI SE

I was diesel when diesel wasn't cool...

Last edited by dieselyeti; April 16th, 2008 at 13:08.
dieselyeti is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 07:39   #9
rufushusky
Newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Weymouth, MA
TDI(s): none
Default

I would belive it, there are two diesels sitting in our driveway right now my dodge and my father's 2000 f350. Right now I am looking at a TDI to handle my daily driving, cause 18mpg is not bad at 6300 pounds but with diesel at 4.25 and rising...a tdi sure does look nice.
__________________
2004.5 Dodge Ram 2500 w/ 5.9L Cummins
rufushusky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 07:47   #10
Mike_04GolfTDI
Veteran Member
 
Mike_04GolfTDI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Richmond, BC, Canada
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by buckeye96
What always kills me is that people never look at the cost per mile. Diesel will have to be almost double of RUG for my TDI to start to equal the cost per mile of a gasser.
That depends which gasser, and also you must consider the purchase price of the car. The cheapest TDI which will become available for 2009 is going to be just over $30,000 Canadian with the taxes. (That's $26,475+$1550 PDI+5% GST+6% PST in British Columbia). You can get something else for thousands less that uses about 1.5L more gas per 100km. It'll take a lifetime to break even on your driving costs with a TDI compared to something cheaper. (since we're talking about the COST of driving here). US prices might be a little lower, but then they are also lower for the gasser, so the comparison is still fair.
__________________
2004 Golf GLS TDI 5-spd, DC Stage 1 Clutch, Evolution Atlas Skid Plate, Malone Stage 4 Tune, GT1749VB Turbo, 3 bar MAP
Mike_04GolfTDI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 14:38   #11
Trooper81
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Ontario Canada
Fuel Economy: 72 MPG Record for 00' TDI
Default

I wouldn't expect Diesel to drop a WHOLE lot but expect Gasoline to go up like crazy 5-6 dollars a gallon this summer would be easily expected with ULSD being just a bit south of gasoline. The reason for this is the High demand for Diesel from the cold winter is letting off and a higher demand for gasoline is catching up from relatively cheap gas. $3.50-4.00 a gallon to upwards of $6.
Trooper81 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 14:53   #12
MunchausenDrive
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Davis,CA
TDI(s): None... yet
Default by 2020 eh?

If that's gonna happen by 2020 they'll have to actually bring diesels the the states.

I have a gasser, but want a diesel. I bought the gasser because of the premium on TDI Golfs in CA and the stars aligned for the purchase. I give it 2 to 3 years I'll swap in the diesel, since i doubt VW will ever bring a TDI rabbit to the states.
MunchausenDrive is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 17:14   #13
D_Bill
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: SE Pa
Fuel Economy: around town 40-42 hiway 52-54
Default another idea

Quote:
Originally Posted by D_Bill
FWIW

. . .

If we let them drill anywhere they want, they would just want to drill some more somewhere else, as they will always claim ( or manufacture ? ) a crisis to make us drop our standards/ideals. Instead, we should point out that by switching to ( bio ? - especially as its environment friendly ) diesel, what we have, would go all that much further. One way to do this would be to follow through with high mpg requirements for all vehicles and not counting pollution per gallon or parts per million but rather we should push for counting pollution( parts ) per mile.

. . .
My apologies for beating this thread up but I am hearing so much about gassers I needed to - ramble - some more. Thanks for putting up with this . . .

I have been thinking about this oil price thing for awhile - and its made me angry . Here's why. The oil industry claims to be working on supply and demand. But that presupposes that there are alternatives - not ! The oil industry controls the transportation market whether we like it or not.

( Forget the conspiracy buffs that would agrue that its not a coincidence that the price of diesel went up as demand for diesel grew - some would say they saw profits slipping away to people that got higher mpg so they raised the price to "reclaim" - their - profits . Not me. I still don't get why it costs more to take sulphur out of diesel than lead and - sulphur - out of RUG - but that's for another time )

So what is a consumer to do when the supplier has a "monopoly" ( technically it may be an oligopoly but the effect on us is the same ) . Well there have to be alternatives. So - drum roll - let's lobby for biodiesel - but on a local scale. Tax credits and tax incentives to small local producers of biodiesel ( think of that professor at MIT that used the exhaust - co2 - from their power plant to grow algae that produced more than 100 times the oil that soy would have - and multiply that throughout the country ) . And just to make sure that this takes off, well the tax incentives would drop off as the operation gets larger till there is no incentive for big oil. We want farmers' co-op's, utility companies, private groups of you and I to spring up without the ties to the oil industry. Govt only regulates the standard for the fuel and ensures that each operation carries insurance . Govt does not step in with tax dollars to fund research for alternative fuels - spell that as just another platitude for the masses that in order to qualify for you must be either a major player or tied to a major player. Exactly what we don't want - govt deciding in advance what research should be funded rather than us. No big business involved. We want this new biodiesel to be produced by the little guy for the little guy.

Rudolph Diesel - I want this to be for the farmers so that they don't have to rely on ( BIG ) oil.

As is typical - I've ranted too much . . . but thanks for listening
D_Bill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 18:01   #14
DRbillZ
Veteran Member
 
DRbillZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Jackson,Tn. Home of Carl Perkins :)
Fuel Economy: NB-usual:41-42 max:47; Jetta:usual: 44highway
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dayne66
my daughter just did a 'count' here in the nanaimo/parksville/qualicum area on sunday as we drove around running errands.

VWs: 77

TDIs: 51

That's 2 outa 3 that are TDIs!!!
Maybe more.........because TDI Beetles don't get the TDI badge!

I believe 20% will turn out to be a low number by 2020 and maybe even a low number by 2015
__________________
-2000 New Beetle TDI GLS. 154,000 miles. TOTALED
-2005 Passat TDI. Stonhenge grey,TOTALED!
-2006 Jetta TDI Platinum grey, 126,000 miles
-2002 2.0L gasser Jetta 125,000
-2012 Jetta Sportwagen TDI 13,800 miles DSG

Last edited by DRbillZ; April 16th, 2008 at 18:06.
DRbillZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old April 16th, 2008, 18:04   #15
DRbillZ
Veteran Member
 
DRbillZ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Jackson,Tn. Home of Carl Perkins :)
Fuel Economy: NB-usual:41-42 max:47; Jetta:usual: 44highway
Default

My TDIs were NEVER in question to be sold. I considered selling my diesel Excursion only to find small SUVs like the Jeep Liberty get about the same mileage! And not to mention losing half the room and most of the comfort of the Ex.
The Ford Escape is about the only one that gets atleast decent mileage and it still isn't that great.
__________________
-2000 New Beetle TDI GLS. 154,000 miles. TOTALED
-2005 Passat TDI. Stonhenge grey,TOTALED!
-2006 Jetta TDI Platinum grey, 126,000 miles
-2002 2.0L gasser Jetta 125,000
-2012 Jetta Sportwagen TDI 13,800 miles DSG
DRbillZ is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 12:04.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright - TDIClub Online LTD - 2017
Contact Us | Privacy Statement | Forum Rules | Disclaimer
TDIClub Online Ltd (TDIClub.com) is not affiliated with the VWoA or VWAG and is supported by contributions from viewers like you.
1996 - 2017, All Rights Reserved
Page generated in 0.16664 seconds with 10 queries
[Output: 132.25 Kb. compressed to 110.93 Kb. by saving 21.32 Kb. (16.12%)]