NHTSA Update on CR HPFP failure investigation

GoFaster

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It's fair to say that there have been a lot more actual failures than have been reported to NHTSA, rightly or wrongly.

About 6% of the people who have reported a HPFP failure on this forum, have subsequently had a second failure. This number is probably higher than the total failure rate due to the possibility of installation errors, etc.

Anyway, if the actual failure rate is as NHTSA quotes - call it 1 in 1000. If the probability of any single vehicle having a failure is 1 in 1000, then the probability of two specific independent vehicles both having a failure is 1 in 1,000,000. With about 139,000 sold - and most of those being one-TDI families - the probability of this ever happening, if that is really the failure rate, is very unlikely but not impossible.

How many of those 139,000 TDI cars belong to two-TDI families - no doubt there are a few - but not many.

If the failure rate is taken as 1% then it's 1 in 10,000 odds that two specific vehicles would both have a failure. If 10,000 of those 139,000 cars sold go to two-TDI families then it's likely that this would happen once (to someone). I suspect that's a high estimate of two-TDI families but not implausibly high.

I suspect based on the number of repeat failures and on the existence of a situation in which both cars in a single family had a failure that the real failure rate is probably on the order of 2% - 3%.
 

pofmi01

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Excellent reply and this is going to be the center of my conversations with VWGoA. The actual answer I got when doing the math on the NHTSA submission to this was 1 in 918,526. Not impossible for this to happen but very, very unlikely. Keep in mind too that VW reported customer mis-fueling admissions in the 152 although I didn't bother to count these against the 152 (if I had to guess it was around 10%). Not sure why it wouldn't be easier to count replacement HPFPs flowing through the VW parts system to get a more accurate estimate of the failure rate but maybe that is one of the next questions that will be asked of VW by the NHTSA.

I did find that the CP4 pump is present in both vehicles but am having problems finding details on the various iterations in original and replacement parts. I have inquiries into dealer and VWGoA on this issue. I did fail to find any claim that any of the current implementations have a max wear scar rating over 460 across any of the vehicles in which it resides and Bosch publications dating back to 2007 stating that 460 was the threshold for CP4.

Many thanks to everyone for all the info contained in the thread ... I would be in the dark otherwise!
 

Niner

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Excellent reply and this is going to be the center of my conversations with VWGoA. The actual answer I got when doing the math on the NHTSA submission to this was 1 in 918,526. Not impossible for this to happen but very, very unlikely. Keep in mind too that VW reported customer mis-fueling admissions in the 152 although I didn't bother to count these against the 152 (if I had to guess it was around 10%). Not sure why it wouldn't be easier to count replacement HPFPs flowing through the VW parts system to get a more accurate estimate of the failure rate but maybe that is one of the next questions that will be asked of VW by the NHTSA.

I did find that the CP4 pump is present in both vehicles but am having problems finding details on the various iterations in original and replacement parts. I have inquiries into dealer and VWGoA on this issue. I did fail to find any claim that any of the current implementations have a max wear scar rating over 460 across any of the vehicles in which it resides and Bosch publications dating back to 2007 stating that 460 was the threshold for CP4.

Many thanks to everyone for all the info contained in the thread ... I would be in the dark otherwise!
Bosch CP4.1 for the 2.0 inline 4 motors, Bosch CP 4.2 for any V6 or V8 motor, including T'rag Q7, Ford 6.7 and GMC /Chevy from 2010 on. They all fail. That 1 % failure was a snapshot in time from about Sept 2010 through December 2010. There have been many more failures for the 2009's as well as 2010's. It's my belief that VW only provided data on VIN's of owners that complained and filed a report with NHTSA to NHTSA. There seem to be some that were reported to NHTSA that VW failed to report on, about 20 or so, that NHTSA required more detail?

Pure speculation, but my guess is the % is at or around at least 2.5% or more 2009's that have failed. Assuming 50,000 produced the first year, that would be at least 1250 2009's that have lost HPFP's in the 2.0 liter version.

I say this because VW is playing a numbers game... fix enough of them so that customers don't file with NHTSA, and it keeps the appearance of failure percentages down, so they don't show on the radar. VW is praying a recall campaign doesn't get created, at least until they get out of warranty.
 

darrelld

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Location
North Texas
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2014 Tesla Model S85, 2017 Chevy Bolt
It's fair to say that there have been a lot more actual failures than have been reported to NHTSA, rightly or wrongly.

About 6% of the people who have reported a HPFP failure on this forum, have subsequently had a second failure. This number is probably higher than the total failure rate due to the possibility of installation errors, etc.

Anyway, if the actual failure rate is as NHTSA quotes - call it 1 in 1000. If the probability of any single vehicle having a failure is 1 in 1000, then the probability of two specific independent vehicles both having a failure is 1 in 1,000,000. With about 139,000 sold - and most of those being one-TDI families - the probability of this ever happening, if that is really the failure rate, is very unlikely but not impossible.

How many of those 139,000 TDI cars belong to two-TDI families - no doubt there are a few - but not many.

If the failure rate is taken as 1% then it's 1 in 10,000 odds that two specific vehicles would both have a failure. If 10,000 of those 139,000 cars sold go to two-TDI families then it's likely that this would happen once (to someone). I suspect that's a high estimate of two-TDI families but not implausibly high.

I suspect based on the number of repeat failures and on the existence of a situation in which both cars in a single family had a failure that the real failure rate is probably on the order of 2% - 3%.
Has anyone correlated the relationship between service intervals and failures. I would think a high probability exists that multi TDI families use the same dealer for service. I know all 3 TDI's in my household do.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
 

timwagon

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One of the real issues in "guessing" at the failure rate is that no one knows for sure why the pumps are failing.

If it's a manufacturing defect only affecting some pumps, then it woud be more likely those pumps would fail early, and the percentage of failures would decline over time.

If it's mostly misfueling, then more pumps would probably also fail early on, as new owners would be more likely to misfuel.

If, as many here on this forum suspect, it's a design defect leading to premature pump wear, then the failures will continue well past the initial years of ownership, and very possibly increase as more and more pumps reach their design limits.

This is why we're awaiting VW's responses to the NHTSA engineering analysis currently underway, in the hope that additional information from VW will resolve the HPFP issue one way or another.
 

Second Turbo

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Need AFR or MFR

> If the probability of any single vehicle having a failure is 1 in 1000, ...

For any failure rate number to be meaningful, we need to know what the sample span is. Is the number AFR (annualized failure rate), MFR (mileage failure rate), "during warranty" rate, "lifetime" (and what is lifetime), or something else? I see people ruminate on numbers here, but they never frame it with the time/miles of exposure.

If I were to buy a new TDI, I'd want to run it for at least 250,000 miles (well beyond warranty). What would my odds be? (and I haven't a clue on that number)
 

Niner

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One of the real issues in "guessing" at the failure rate is that no one knows for sure why the pumps are failing.

If it's a manufacturing defect only affecting some pumps, then it woud be more likely those pumps would fail early, and the percentage of failures would decline over time.

If it's mostly misfueling, then more pumps would probably also fail early on, as new owners would be more likely to misfuel.

If, as many here on this forum suspect, it's a design defect leading to premature pump wear, then the failures will continue well past the initial years of ownership, and very possibly increase as more and more pumps reach their design limits.

This is why we're awaiting VW's responses to the NHTSA engineering analysis currently underway, in the hope that additional information from VW will resolve the HPFP issue one way or another.
I guess that makes Bosch a no one. They know why it's failing, after 4 + years. " bad Fuel" is just an excuse, and excuses are the nails in the coffin of failure. They've been warning CARB and ASTM for years about fuel lubricity, and even with good fuel lubricity, failures exist.
 

Claudio

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exactly...one has no way to know the initial quality of the fuel at the pump, Dweisel was pretty "anal" about fuel quality and lubricity, he was using, if I'm not mistaken, B2 + Power Service religiously...and had 2 failures on 2 cars
 

GoFaster

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If I were to buy a new TDI, I'd want to run it for at least 250,000 miles (well beyond warranty). What would my odds be? (and I haven't a clue on that number)
You are looking for something similar to what in mechanical engineering is called the "L10 life" - the number of hours/revolutions/whatever for which it is expected that total failures under a given set of circumstances accumulate to 10%. It's commonly used in rolling-element bearings. I'm not sure that it is appropriate for this situation because there is a possibility that one fill-up of very poor wear-scar fuel (if that is the issue) would either do the pump in, or drastically shorten its life. Likewise with bearings, that L10 life assumes that the bearing has a fixed set of loading conditions over its entire life. That's valid for some applications, but for others, where the loading varies, the L10 life can only give you a general idea of what is expected, and you can expect it to be wrong by an order of magnitude in either direction (so normal practice is to size the bearing so that its L10 life will not be approached even under the more extreme foreseeable circumstances).
 

JSWTDI09

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^^^ fuel sensor is an interesting idea. I Googled and can't find anything except the PDF you posted. Any idea where you could buy this or what it would cost?

Have Fun!

Don
 

darrelld

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^^^ fuel sensor is an interesting idea. I Googled and can't find anything except the PDF you posted. Any idea where you could buy this or what it would cost?

Have Fun!

Don
Probably could email Hella to get the details.

This would allow identification of bad fuel at the source or eliminate it a true cause of failure.
 

bhtooefr

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Hella is marketing this to vehicle manufacturers, though, it looks like. Meaning they won't sell you one, they'll happily sell you one hundred thousand.
 

turborod

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I wanna buy insurance at say about $5/ month that will cover for the 2nd HPF failure if that happens
 

sgoldste01

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$5/month = $60/year. Keep the car for 10 years and you've only paid $600.

Insurance companies set up their prices so that they will cover their own a$$es if something goes wrong, and keep the money if nothing goes wrong. They are in it to make money, and lots of it. That's why auto insurance for a 17 year old kid is so expensive--the chances that he's going to crash are pretty high. That's why flood insurance in New Orleans is so expensive.

I don't think $60/year for HPFP insurance sounds very tempting to the insurance companies.
 

timwagon

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I wanna buy insurance at say about $5/ month that will cover for the 2nd HPF failure if that happens
Get GEICO's mechanical breakdown insurance.

I pay $30 a year for it, and it covers any repair with a $250 deductible.

It's a rider on my car insurance policy, and you have to add it within a certain time after buying your car, but it's much, much cheaper than any other "extended warranty" program I've seen.
 

Lightflyer1

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That may work. They have some wiggle roon though. Only covers "after" mfg warranty. You will pay in 3 years before a claim is possible. Misfueling "may" be considered an intentional act. Misfueling may still be claimed whether you did or not. Still seems like a better risk with GEICO than an extended warranty. I am currently insured by them and have always had a good experience when dealing with them.

*MBI Exclusions
Exclusions to this policy include regular maintenance services such as tune-ups, suspension alignment, wheel balancing, filters, lubrication, coolant and fluids, spark plugs, brake pads and linings, brake shoes, and tires. Also, breakdown repairs made necessary by intentional damage, corrosion, misuse, or improper maintenance are not covered. Mechanical Breakdown Insurance coverage is in excess of coverage provided by your manufacturer's warranty. Read the policy amendment for the complete terms and conditions of this coverage.
 

timwagon

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"Intentional" means intentional. Not accidental.

As for it not taking effect for three years, you're correct, but the additional policy cost for this coverage is so small as to be a non-issue.
 

Plus 3 Golfer

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"Intentional" means intentional. Not accidental.

As for it not taking effect for three years, you're correct, but the additional policy cost for this coverage is so small as to be a non-issue.
Sounds like a winner (if I ever purchase another new VW diesel:D).

Is it renewable yearly "forever"? Any time / mileage limits? Does it cover colateral and consequential damages? What are the deductibles? Can Geico refuse to renew MBI? Is the premium guaranteed? Can you scan the policy amendments (or at least the limitations in coverage, renewal provisions, and other relevant details and post?
 
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DnA Diesel

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no more...
Reading the BMW submission to NHTSA, the Bosch CP3 used by BMW fails just as often as the CP4 used by VAG. And reading that BMW is unable to provide failure mode and effects analysis information which has to be provided by Bosch, surely it is likely that Bosch will be asked by NHTSA to ante up too.
Link and or quote please? In the North American BMW diesel community there is a single known case of a Bosch CP3.2+ pump failing, attributed to badly contaminated fuel. I'd be very interested to see the data you're referring to that equates the failure rate to that of the 4.1 pumps in the CR Jettas. Are you sure you're not confusing the high HPFP failure rate of the N54 and N55 gasoline DI engines in the E90 335i?

Regards
D.
 

turborod

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Geico??? But, can't use warranty for 3 years. Could park it in the back yard for a while? Nah, I'll drive my JSW. But, 1 more HPF pump failure and it's out of here.
 

DnA Diesel

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no more...
If getting insurance is a problem (?), then the http://forums.tdiclub.com/showthread.php?t=284441
thread needs all the ideas it can get to devise the best aids possible to reduce the cost of a failure.

eddif
ALUSIL treatment of the pump bore and a rotating pool of core pumps, so folks aren't out a car for a long time while their pump is out getting treated.
 

tico27464

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Sounds like a winner (if I ever purchase another new VW diesel:D).

Is it renewable yearly "forever"? Any time / mileage limits? Does it cover colateral and consequential damages? What are the deductibles? Can Geico refuse to renew MBI? Is the premium guaranteed? Can you scan the policy amendments (or at least the limitations in coverage, renewal provisions, and other relevant details and post?
I have it on mine. It is 7yr/100k mi, and you have to buy w/in the first 15K mi of ownership. I believe $250 ded. I don't have the paperwork before me at the moment, so, sorry, can't answer your other questions.

Interestingly, the guy at VW whose job it was to sell extended warranties said Geico's was a good one, and the only real difference was they might require aftermarket parts. I doubt anyone but Bosch/VW makes these. For $50/yr as versus ~3K for VW, it was an obvious choice. The guy was rretiring the next week and said he just wanted to help people. Kinda restores your faith in humanity,
Cheers,
~T
 

Niner

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Geico??? But, can't use warranty for 3 years. Could park it in the back yard for a while? Nah, I'll drive my JSW. But, 1 more HPF pump failure and it's out of here.
3 years if new.... you could use it on any TDI out of warranty.... but the point is you shouldn't have to if the pump was designed and built right in the first place, so that it rarely if ever fails or has such collateral damage.
 

RabbitGTI

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I'm not reading all this and I don't have a CR, but is there some way to put a filter just downstream of the pump that would quickly clog if the pump frags, thus saving the rest of the system?
 

Second Turbo

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Armchair re-engineering

RabbitGTI: > I'm not reading all this and I don't have a CR, but is there some way to put a filter just downstream of the pump that would quickly clog if the pump frags, thus saving the rest of the system?

This is being discussed on threads such as:
VW MKVI ... CR engine HPFP analysis
 

TDImeek

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NHTSA / VW internal documents

I love how NHTSA is asking for information including translations of internal communications and e-mails that VW has not provided. Look at the internal VW items they have asked for specifically that VW has asked for an extension until March 30, 2012 (#12, 13, 29, and 30):
http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/UCM417829/INIM-EA11003-50442P.pdf
Here is the original request addressing these items:
http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/jaxrs/download/doc/ACM18716976/INPR-EA11003-48542.pdf
I particularly like #31. It seems to imply that NHTSA has done some good homework and uncovered the fact that VW knows of the inherent design fault in their current HPFP units.
A list of all VW/NHTSA communications, (including VW buybacks, VWCC/customer notes, and warranty work can be found here):
http://www-odi.nhtsa.dot.gov/acms/cs/documentList.xhtml?docId=EA11003&docType=INV
In my opinion, it looks like NHTSA is really tightening the screws on VWoA and may demand a recall after all requested information (Due March 30, 2012) has been reviewed.
 
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