300D
Veteran Member
Gas prices have dropped super low. I have seen $1.49 up here in Maine. Will diesel start to follow? Still at $2.76. Can anyone explain exactly why diesel prices fluctuate offset/behind from gasoline?
When will diesel prices start to fall?
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Mike_04GolfTDI
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99% of the people who have stopped going to work and therefore reduced the demand for fuel were probably using gasoline.
Activities that use diesel, like trucking, are still taking place. Maybe slightly reduced, but not as much reduction in usage as gasoline.
Just a guess. I have no idea.
Activities that use diesel, like trucking, are still taking place. Maybe slightly reduced, but not as much reduction in usage as gasoline.
Just a guess. I have no idea.
Lightflyer1
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They are falling just like gas is. At least here. Under $2 a gallon at some places. Gas near $1 at some spots.
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Mike_04GolfTDI
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Near $1 per gallon? Wow.
Haven’t seen it that cheap for a long time. Maybe in the 1990’s.
Haven’t seen it that cheap for a long time. Maybe in the 1990’s.
Lightflyer1
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$1.01 to $1.05 at a few places.
IndigoBlueWagon
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Mr. Chill said he saw $2.19 in MA near the RI border. I haven't seen anything that low yet. Around me prices have dropped about $.20. Someone here wrote that a drop in gasoline production will reduce distillate stocks that are used to make diesel, so diesel prices may not fall much. But that's stuff I don't fully understand.
showdown 42
Veteran Member
I would bet diesel use is up yr over yr,if you look at all the on line shopping happening because people are scared to death to go to the malls and other stores. Fedex and UPS are hiring more people if they can get them.In SWFL we are about 70 higher than REG gas. I don't expect equal prices except for special local situations.
IndigoBlueWagon
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Don't think it's that simple. Most states have stopped most or all commercial construction projects, lots of residential service businesses (like remodeling or landscaping) aren't operating, lots of ships, which were supposed to switch to lower sulfur fuel this year, aren't operating. Jet fuel? Nope. But with lots of people in the Northeast and Midwest at home, heating oil use may be up, despite the mild winter. It's hard to figure how all that will shake out.
turbobrick240
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Distillate consumption is definitely down, and dropping. Residential heating oil only makes up roughly 3% of US distillate usage, so probably neglible impact from that.
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tactdi
Veteran Member
I had a long commute (about 1 1/2 hour each way) for a few months in 2000.
And remember filling up my gas Jetta 2 or 3 times a week. Gas was about $1.18/gal. That is my reference point when price fluctuates.
Oh, and I don't forget that gas was 59 cents a gal when I started driving in the
late 1970's. I remember a friend and I flipped the air cleaner cover over on the Ford wagon we were driving back from the beach, to gain a couple miles/gal since we were low on cash.
DivineChaos
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$2.14 for d2 here
QuandAns42
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Yeah, different types of fuel will respond to large scale market forces similarly, but from a supplier/demand standpoint the two are still different products. Diesel will eventually start to tend in the same direction as Regular, but they don't necessarily walk hand-in-hand.
IndigoBlueWagon
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Got an oil delivery today, price per gallon is down about $.40 since the previous delivery at the end of February.
noplug
Veteran Member
Saw $2.09 this morning Waldorf MD
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red16vdub
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CheapBastard
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$2.45 for propel high performance
Tin Man
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I would argue just the opposite. Gasoline has had a surplus for quite a while but now the bottom has fallen out for the gasoline market.
Diesel is still useful and its distillation economically produces gasoline also.
New England is to me biased against diesel so prices have always been artificially high there.
My $.02
IndigoBlueWagon
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I think we are agreeing that diesel prices may not fall as much as gasoline, but for different reasons. And as I noted, I don't fully understand how refineries work. Maybe I don't understand them at all.
I've been driving all over North America for years and I believe, with some supply exceptions, fuel prices vary mostly because of tax structures in each state. Drive from Massachusetts to Florida and you'll see prices fall, rise, and fall again. Illinois and CA have very high fuel prices, typically. Southern states have lower prices. But with the exception of states where they are closer to supply, it's not the product cost that's driving price variations. At least I don't think it is.
I've been driving all over North America for years and I believe, with some supply exceptions, fuel prices vary mostly because of tax structures in each state. Drive from Massachusetts to Florida and you'll see prices fall, rise, and fall again. Illinois and CA have very high fuel prices, typically. Southern states have lower prices. But with the exception of states where they are closer to supply, it's not the product cost that's driving price variations. At least I don't think it is.
Ovrhill
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I'm no expert on how we arrive at the price of our fuels either. Think that distillates are influenced by global markets more so than gasoline.
Paid $1.83 gal yesterday here in DFW for ULSD.
Paid $1.83 gal yesterday here in DFW for ULSD.
Tin Man
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Maybe high farming states have less tax and more price competition. Around Georgia it seems truck stops have higher prices than other busy stations.
Tin Man
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The price per gallon for ULSD was only supposed to go up a few cents per gallon. I believe ULSD is what the international market wants. When US rules were changed allowing export of finished product the price went up with demand. Europe probably still overproduces gasoline and sells it to the Eastern United States, making gasoline cheaper.
Diesel will be King for a long time IMO.
turbobrick240
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The demand for distillate hasn't cratered nearly as much as the demand for gasoline has. Most refineries have a fair amount of flexibility over which end products they produce from a barrel of crude oil. Many of them are reconfiguring right now to produce a higher proportion of distillate. There's getting to be such a huge surplus of gasoline that the refineries are running out of places to store it.
Tin Man
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Where have you found recent data? I believe the demand for diesel was strong already and that refineries were maxing it out.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained...cts/refining-crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php
Powder Hound
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Typically sometime in the spring, refineries switch over to produce more gasoline for the summer driving season. It seems to me that they would either not do the switch, or at least delay it this year. If the summer driving season fails to materialize, I would figure that the refineries will not switch, but will retain the optimization for D2 for this year.
But who can tell? The economic headaches produced by the current lock downs going on will distort the entire picture.
Cheers,
PH
But who can tell? The economic headaches produced by the current lock downs going on will distort the entire picture.
Cheers,
PH
noplug
Veteran Member
I am thinking a lot of the diesel pricing is from over the road trucks and from diesel electric trains.
Anyway I saw $2.25 here in Waldorf for 47 Cetane ULSD,
Still $2.09 for 40 Cetane.
Man I wish I could check the Cetane number with a test kit but I hear it isn’t that easy or cheap.
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Anyway I saw $2.25 here in Waldorf for 47 Cetane ULSD,
Still $2.09 for 40 Cetane.
Man I wish I could check the Cetane number with a test kit but I hear it isn’t that easy or cheap.
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Lightflyer1
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I would seriously doubt anyone actually sells 40 cetane exactly, fuel. They would be right on the limit and subject to fines and such if they fell below the minimum of 40 cetane. Most places post the minimum limit no matter what the actual real value is.
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noplug
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This place used to advertise 51 Cetane and man I got good power and mileage with my ALH and 7.3L Excursion but the owner started getting fuel from another source, it was a BP station before.
Thanks for the info
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Thanks for the info
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turbobrick240
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Distillate demand is down slightly year over year, but it has been pretty consistently for most of the last year. The distillate demand chart is the last one on this site:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/distillate.php
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Tin Man
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Thanks.
If you register with an API number, the graph for overall world consumption of liquid petroleum products goes up consistently. https://www.eia.gov/opendata/qb.php?sdid=INTL.5-2-WORL-TBPD.A
Lightflyer1
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If it is anything but 40 it may be believable. Most suppliers will be at least several points higher than 40 just to stay off the bottom line. 51 was probably a good number at the time. With the situation and prices dropping I can understand why they would change to stay competitive.