Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability

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bizzle

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Pardon those of us who feel negatively toward businesses that put unaware patrons at personal risk of bankruptcy and other harms.
Are you upset at everyone who refuses to take responsibility for your actions, or just scooter companies?
 

Tin Man

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The article says bicycles are covered but not motorized scooters by most home owners'
 

Nuje

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"Electric vehicles (EVs), their emissions, and future viability"

Just sayin'...
 

kjclow

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I like the new VW van commercial but wonder if we will ever see it. I know it's a hype piece but you have to start somewhere.
 

bizzle

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I like the new VW van commercial but wonder if we will ever see it. I know it's a hype piece but you have to start somewhere.
We're going to see it this time. We've been seeing concepts of it for a good 5 years, if not longer, and now they're actually driving one around showing it off near the beaches so it's finally, actually real.

The problem isn't whether we see it, though, but that we're going to see it at $120K :eek:
 

turbobrick240

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That seems like a good way to ensure that they aren't production constrained- jack up the price so high that nobody buys them. For six figures I'd restore a classic bus and drop in a Tesla drivetrain.
 

kjclow

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For that price, it ought to come with it's own driver.
 

bizzle

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I don't have any information about the pricing, but I was thinking that it would come in around 80-90K and that wouldn't surprise me compared to current SUV, CUV, and Tesla pricing. I believe my Touareg MSRPd around 60K in 2015. I think the Niro we looked at last year was around 45K sticker.

But then someone posted that they've seen some info and the pricing was going to be eye-popping or something along those lines so I added another 30-40K to my estimate. I'm not even sure 120K is an eye-popper to some people, unfortunately. You add up all the tangibles and intangibles, throw in a half century of nostalgia as a tailwind, and we'll be lucky to buy one let alone worry about the price for quite a while.
 

Lightflyer1

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Sounds like a good way to not sell many to me. The best way to kill sales is to price it out of reach of the average person. $120k for a car is just ludicrous. My Passat was $32k and I thought that was high. For $120k you could rebuild any car you want and have money left over.
 

ToxicDoc

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Sounds like a good way to not sell many to me. The best way to kill sales is to price it out of reach of the average person. $120k for a car is just ludicrous. My Passat was $32k and I thought that was high. For $120k you could rebuild any car you want and have money left over.
But that $120K is for a "luxury" car. The new model is much cheaper (about 1/3 of the price), albeit smaller.
 

turbobrick240

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Tesla Bjorn and some friends just set a world record by driving an EV (model 3) 1725 miles in 24 hours! The road trip argument against EV's is losing relevance. I personally like to turn in for the night after around 800-900 miles of driving.
 

Tin Man

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Tesla Bjorn and some friends just set a world record by driving an EV (model 3) 1725 miles in 24 hours! The road trip argument against EV's is losing relevance. I personally like to turn in for the night after around 800-900 miles of driving.
Sounds like it turns into an adventure like a road rally or dungeons and dragons to find the right combination of road, charging stations, and ancillary services. I can see myself doing this especially when there is time to stop on the way. Prefer 4 hours at a time anyway....
 

turbobrick240

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Sounds like it turns into an adventure like a road rally or dungeons and dragons to find the right combination of road, charging stations, and ancillary services. I can see myself doing this especially when there is time to stop on the way. Prefer 4 hours at a time anyway....
I believe they did the driving on the german autobahn. It does seem like a much more fun record than some boring hypermiling challenge. I wonder at what point efficiency and speed balance out. I suppose it all comes down to the charge rate.
 

Tin Man

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Tin Man

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THE “NEW ENERGY ECONOMY”: AN EXERCISE IN MAGICAL THINKING

Executive Summary
A movement has been growing for decades to replace hydrocarbons, which collectively supply 84% of the world’s energy. It began with the fear that we were running out of oil. That fear has since migrated to the belief that, because of climate change and other environmental concerns, society can no longer tolerate burning oil, natural gas, and coal—all of which have turned out to be abundant.
So far, wind, solar, and batteries—the favored alternatives to hydrocarbons—provide about 2% of the world’s energy and 3% of America’s. Nonetheless, a bold new claim has gained popularity: that we’re on the cusp of a tech-driven energy revolution that not only can, but inevitably will, rapidly replace all hydrocarbons.
This “new energy economy” rests on the belief—a centerpiece of the Green New Deal and other similar proposals both here and in Europe—that the technologies of wind and solar power and battery storage are undergoing the kind of disruption experienced in computing and communications, dramatically lowering costs and increasing efficiency. But this core analogy glosses over profound differences, grounded in physics, between systems that produce energy and those that produce information.
In the world of people, cars, planes, and factories, increases in consumption, speed, or carrying capacity cause hardware to expand, not shrink. The energy needed to move a ton of people, heat a ton of steel or silicon, or grow a ton of food is determined by properties of nature whose boundaries are set by laws of gravity, inertia, friction, mass, and thermodynamics—not clever software.
This paper highlights the physics of energy to illustrate why there is no possibility that the world is undergoing— or can undergo—a near-term transition to a “new energy economy.”
I think diesel looks good so far for now....
 
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compu_85

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We're going to see it this time.
A new VW microbus has been "coming soon" for the past 15 years. I'll believe it when I see it.

And if it does happen, I hope they've improved their energy efficiency compared to the eTron. With the Audi getting <2 mi/kWh, I'd think a brick shaped bus would do similar... which would set the car up to fail in the market.

-J
 

Lightflyer1

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Solar charging may get a boost if this new tech works out. 80% efficiency instead of 22% are the claims.

https://phys.org/news/2019-07-carbon-nanotube-device-channels.html

"Naik said adding the emitters to standard solar cells could boost their efficiency from the current peak of about 22%. "By squeezing all the wasted thermal energy into a small spectral region, we can turn it into electricity very efficiently," he said. "The theoretical prediction is that we can get 80% efficiency."

Nanotube films suit the task because they stand up to temperatures as high as 1,700 degrees Celsius (3,092 degrees Fahrenheit). Naik's team built proof-of-concept devices that allowed them to operate at up to 700 C (1,292 F) and confirm their narrow-band output. To make them, the team patterned arrays of submicron-scale cavities into the chip-sized films."

That would amount to 1/4th of the panels currently used for the same power.
 

bwilson4web

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Tesla Bjorn and some friends just set a world record by driving an EV (model 3) 1725 miles in 24 hours! The road trip argument against EV's is losing relevance. I personally like to turn in for the night after around 800-900 miles of driving.
The team ran laps between two, 3d party, high-speed, DC chargers with higher charge rates than Tesla SuperChargers. Each segment charged to just 50% which is a Tesla technique to maximize charging rate. Back of the envelope, the team were running ~90 mph on the Autobahn. I don't know how much their charging sessions cost.

For USA trip planning, the trip time as a function of cruise speed and charging follows this graph:

So I validated the model in a round trip, benchmark between Athens AL and Nashville TN:
  • 85.5 mi each way, 171 mi total
  • 73 mph cruise speed gave 61.3 mph trip speed with charging
  • 26 min charging for $7.18 SuperCharger costs
  • 2:20 min driving at 73 mph
GOOD; FAST; CHEAP -> pick two. Our Tesla Model 3 chooses GOOD and CHEAP.

A gas/diesel car will travel the same distance with faster refueling, ~5 min., than the Model 3 charging, ~13 min. But compared to our former Prius, the Model 3 is cheaper to operate. The Model 3 also has dynamic cruise control and steers within the lane. The car does +90% of the driving.

Bob Wilson
 

turbobrick240

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You won't have to settle for just good and cheap for long. The model 3 is capable of much faster charging at the V 3 superchargers that are beginning their rollout.
 

rotarykid

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Yes, but if you go fast, the battery will be too hot for fast charging.
you also loose charge in a shorter distance from the load created by required battery cooling systems, especially in hotter weather.....that is charge lost off the top of what is available for use to prevent battery damage leading to shorter service life span....
 

bhtooefr

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FWIW, their target speed was 170 km/h, which is about 105 MPH. However, they had issues with weather and traffic that slowed their average speed down.
 

tikal

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From what I read for the Kia Soul EV, stay below 70 MPH and avoid at all cost to do fast charging to get the most life out of the batteries (perhaps close to 10 years is possible). I wonder how Kia will handle the 10 year battery life if they suspect the owner is speeding and/or fast charging often. How would they know to deny warranty and claim 'operator error'.
 

oilhammer

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There are just too many to list....
Yep, all that is easily recorded. Just like the Bosch EDC in the Cummins engines records idle time and the like.
 

ToxicDoc

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Solar charging may get a boost if this new tech works out. 80% efficiency instead of 22% are the claims.

https://phys.org/news/2019-07-carbon-nanotube-device-channels.html

"Naik said adding the emitters to standard solar cells could boost their efficiency from the current peak of about 22%. "By squeezing all the wasted thermal energy into a small spectral region, we can turn it into electricity very efficiently," he said. "The theoretical prediction is that we can get 80% efficiency."

Nanotube films suit the task because they stand up to temperatures as high as 1,700 degrees Celsius (3,092 degrees Fahrenheit). Naik's team built proof-of-concept devices that allowed them to operate at up to 700 C (1,292 F) and confirm their narrow-band output. To make them, the team patterned arrays of submicron-scale cavities into the chip-sized films."

That would amount to 1/4th of the panels currently used for the same power.
It's taken 50 years to get to mid 20%. While even 50% would be nice, I'm not holding my breath for it in my remaining lifetime.
 

turbobrick240

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It's taken 50 years to get to mid 20%. While even 50% would be nice, I'm not holding my breath for it in my remaining lifetime.
Closer to 150 years, but look at the progress in the last 20 years. Efficiency has gone way up, while the cost has come way down. The top tech often starts out in space programs, then finds its way into consumer applications. Apollo 11, 50 years ago today! Now mankind is nearly prepared to step away from fossil fuels.
 
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