Who else is keeping theirs?

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
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Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
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'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
Are you feeling lucky? How you use the car doesn't bear much relationship to timing belt life. You're talking about driving the car for another 8+ months, and you're already past the belt change interval. You can predict whether or not it'll make it to the buyback as well as anyone.
 

STRANGETDI

Veteran Member
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Sep 20, 2001
Location
East Hampton, CT
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2013 Audi A3 S-Line Premium Plus Quattro - APR Stage II
I thought the timing belt change was at 130K now. No matter. Anyway, you are also over the 120K HPFP warranty in which it is covered 100% by VW. As I get close to 120K, I will be making my appointment to sell.
 

tdi54

Veteran Member
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Dec 19, 2010
Location
California
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1981 Rabbit Diesel(sold), 2009 Jetta TDI MT(sold)2010 Jetta TDI MT, 2015 Jetta TDI SEL, DSG, 99 Ford F 350 PSD Dually, 2016 BMW X5 xDrive35d, 2016 535d
I had changed mine at around 130K and it seemed to me it could have lasted for many more miles. But as IndigoBluewagon indicated, you take certain risks with delayed maintenance, and given how crucial the role timing belts play in our cars, I would probably consider changing it, or at least do a careful visual check on it for any sign of wear/tear etc.
 

ksing44

Veteran Member
Joined
Feb 13, 2010
Location
Southeast PA
TDI
2010 Golf TDI
Are you feeling lucky? How you use the car doesn't bear much relationship to timing belt life. You're talking about driving the car for another 8+ months, and you're already past the belt change interval. You can predict whether or not it'll make it to the buyback as well as anyone.
I thought the timing belt change was at 130K now. No matter. Anyway, you are also over the 120K HPFP warranty in which it is covered 100% by VW. As I get close to 120K, I will be making my appointment to sell.
^^Both of these!

You'll be sorry if your HPFP goes just trying to get a few more months. Considering you already have the replacement, why wait for the buyback?!

I kept mine (2010 with 150K), but I had a different HPFP installed and had the timing belt done at 130K, 10K miles after the scheduled time for a 2010.
 

meerschm

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 18, 2009
Location
Fairfax county VA
TDI
2009 Jetta wagon DSG 08/08 205k buyback 1/8/18; replaced with 2017 Golf Wagon 4mo 1.8l CXBB
Not sure if this is the best thread but it looks active.

I have a 2012 sportwagen with 128K. I leased a 2015 TDI to replace my 2012 for when I take the buyback at last possible moment. The 2015 currently resides in my garage awaiting lease buyout with the proceeds of our 2012 sometime after August 2018.

My question- I am quickly approaching the scheduled maintenance point for the timing belt. I have already skipped the 120K DGS service and plan to do one more dealer oil change until the buyback. Is there any serious likelihood of failure if I skip the timing belt for another 10K miles? (is there any built in safety confidence level on the timing belt to account for hard use?)

We drive the car about 85% highway mileage and we baby it. I am still running the original brakes. Thanks for any advice!

no one here has ever posted about a failed timing belt on a CR car, except where a failed pulley or tensioner shredded the accessory belt and took it out.

if it was me, I would keep a close eye on that accessory belt and continue to baby and drive the car.


I would not worry about the HPFP suddenly going between 130 and 140k either
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
TDI
'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
My local guru has repaired several CR cars that suffered failed timing belts. One failed shortly before buyback. The maintenance interval exists for a reason. How much someone can drive beyond the change interval depends on many factors, none of them within the driver's control. As I posted above, it's really a matter of whether or not you feel lucky.
 

meerschm

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 18, 2009
Location
Fairfax county VA
TDI
2009 Jetta wagon DSG 08/08 205k buyback 1/8/18; replaced with 2017 Golf Wagon 4mo 1.8l CXBB
I stand corrected. Don't suppose you have the mileage of these failures, and list of causes?

Also depends on the rest of the financial picture. what is the impact to overall finances if the car does fail prior to the buyback.

I agree that there is not an easy way to know what the probability of failure is on this particular car, which could be used to calculate the probability of loss to compare with a changed probability if maintenance actions are performed.

I would differ on the idea that none of the the factors is within the drivers' control.

this is not well modeled,outside of corporate, (consider why the TB interval was increased from 120 to 130k) but you could consider the actual causes of timing belt failure.

in most of the cases, i would think failures are caused by failure of one of the pulleys or devices the belt operates. in this case, it also would depend on what "baby" means. has the car been stored for long periods? is it operated in salty, sloppy road conditions? operated with the plastic guards missing? short drive cycles?

what shape is the coolant system in? is there evidence of clogging stuff in coolant as has been found in some of the early model year cars?


here is some precision guessing:
if there was a 20% chance of failure would you take the chance?

the cost of failure is probably $10,000 (buyback vs salvage value)

so if you would save $1500 by skipping maintenance, would it offset 0.2 (10,000) $2000.

not really

but if it was a 10% chance of failure, the expectation of loss would be $1000. so a good bet.

if you think it is 5%, the expected loss would be only $500. so more likely to make sense to keep driving.

(this assumes zero probability of failure if you get the timing belt done, which is a stretch...)

how much money will you really save by skipping maintenance and delaying buyback to the last month?

how much fun would you have driving the 2015?

IBW has summed it up.

but I worked my last day yesterday so have time to ramble.

good luck with whatever you decide.
 
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runonbeer

Maintenance EnthusiastVendor
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Apr 15, 2002
Location
Austin, TX/Chapel Hill, NC
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'00 Golf 02M, '10 Golf 02E, '02 UTE 02M
I have personally repaired a handful of broken CR timing belts and I've also seen one CR car with over 200K on the original belt.
 

turbobrick240

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Nov 18, 2014
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maine
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2011 vw golf tdi(gone to greener pastures), 2001 ford f250 powerstroke
My completely unprofessional guess is that around 5% or less of the ea189 engines will suffer a timing belt failure before 140k miles. That's about as much risk as I'd be willing to take.
 

meerschm

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 18, 2009
Location
Fairfax county VA
TDI
2009 Jetta wagon DSG 08/08 205k buyback 1/8/18; replaced with 2017 Golf Wagon 4mo 1.8l CXBB
I have personally repaired a handful of broken CR timing belts and I've also seen one CR car with over 200K on the original belt.

if you had the miles of cars with broken timing belts we could do some half-assed statistics.


of course, it is hard to come up with a number for how many cars with an over-interval timing belt are driving around.
 

meerschm

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Apr 18, 2009
Location
Fairfax county VA
TDI
2009 Jetta wagon DSG 08/08 205k buyback 1/8/18; replaced with 2017 Golf Wagon 4mo 1.8l CXBB
My completely unprofessional guess is that around 5% or less of the ea189 engines will suffer a timing belt failure before 140k miles. That's about as much risk as I'd be willing to take.

assuming this applies for a car that already has 130k on it,

(if we had real statistics, you would subtract the probability of failure at less than 130k from the probability of failure at 140k. conditional probability. )

5% chance of a $10,000 loss is only a third of a $1500 repair cost.
 

IndigoBlueWagon

TDIClub Enthusiast, Principal IDParts, Vendor , w/
Joined
Aug 16, 2004
Location
South of Boston
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'97 Passat, '99.5 Golf, '02 Jetta Wagon, '15 GSW
Statistics aren't really going to matter if the OP's belt fails. And it's safe to predict the odds of it failing if run beyond the change interval are significantly greater than the odds of it failing within the recommended interval. No matter the odds, if he continues to drive the car without changing the belt he's rolling the dice.
 

Jabbott

Member
Joined
May 3, 2012
Location
Northern PA
TDI
2015 GSW 6MT SEL Silk, 2012 JSW toffee
Thanks for all the thoughtful responses. You guys are like a more analytical version of the conversation in my head. The car has been a daily commuter in northern Pennsylvania and is garage kept. The listed interval for TB change is 130K for this vehicle. I am leaning towards continuing to drive it until winter is over so I don't have to get salt on my 2015 and I can turn it in with the steel wheels and keep a spare set of alloys. Another reason the we keep driving the 2012 is that the 2015 is manual transmission and my wife is a novice. I will be a few thousand miles over the interval when I turn it in, probably sometime in April or May. I think we will drive the 2015 on our Florida vacation in February and keep those miles off the 2012.
 

mr.shooty

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Apr 15, 2012
Location
Medford, NJ
TDI
2012 Golf TDI Gone. 2018 Golf R
Plus, unlike the GTI, it is reasonably safe to assume you could in fact get another 150K out the CJAA engine, the 2.0TSI doubtful, if long term operating costs are a factor.
 

tdi_spec

Active member
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Jul 17, 2012
Location
North Las Vegas, NV
TDI
2012 Tornado Red Golf TDI
I kept mine

I always planned on keeping mine because it is an awesome car. I was so impressed with the Golf that I went and bought an R also. That being said, my HPFP failed at around 60,000 miles. The entire fuel system was replaced in a day under warranty and I was on my way like nothing ever happened. I had the emissions fix done at around 70,000 miles, took my $6,000 check and extended warranty and went on my merry way. And just today my turbo seems to have failed. I'm confident VW will replace it under the new emissions fix warranty and I will once again be on my merry way. I don't see myself getting rid of this car until the extended emissions warranty runs out. Until then I might as well take advantage of the peace of mind given by the new warranty coverage that seems to cover just about all of the really expensive stuff.
 

PlaneCrazy

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Jan 3, 2000
Location
Province of Quebec, Canada
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Gone...
Plus, unlike the GTI, it is reasonably safe to assume you could in fact get another 150K out the CJAA engine, the 2.0TSI doubtful, if long term operating costs are a factor.
In the rust belt where I live, either a 2.0 TSI, if not abused, a 1.8 TSI if not abused, or a TDI, will easily outlast the body of the car it's in, so it's rather a moot point. Both our B5.5 TDI and Mk I Honda Odyssey failed at 300k km; the latter due to extreme corrosion, the former had advanced corrosion, and the transmission died making it uneconomic to repair.

I find the operating cost difference between the 1.8 TSI and TDI to be fairly minimal at least in my driving mix, where my TSI averages 42 mpg in summer weather and 35 mpg in winter weather, compared to 47 and 39 for my previous TDI. Where I live D2 is significantly more expensive than RUG in winter, and only slightly less expensive than RUG in summer, so on average D2 costs more.

Of course the 2.0 TSI will be a greater difference, but it also gets more SMPG as well! (SMPG = smiles per gallon :) )
 

ezshift5

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2003
Location
West Coast
TDI
2013 JSW TDI (Enroute BB).......2017 Jetta 1.4 turbo 5M ....................
I find the operating cost difference between the 1.8 TSI and TDI to be fairly minimal at least in my driving mix, where my TSI averages 42 mpg in summer weather and 35 mpg in winter weather, compared to 47 and 39 for my previous TDI.
Your TSI numbers are impressive to this sailor. Imp. or US gallon calc's?
My JSW TDI 6M calc'd 44.3 for 50,000 miles. New little TSI (1.4/5M) is calc'g about 4 MPG less than der 'vagen.

It all good.......the Buyback amount, the little TSI (well, the cost of diesel - like you say - here in our golden(?) state is higher (much higher) than gas (87).


ez
 

PlaneCrazy

Top Post Dawg
Joined
Jan 3, 2000
Location
Province of Quebec, Canada
TDI
Gone...
Your TSI numbers are impressive to this sailor. Imp. or US gallon calc's?
My JSW TDI 6M calc'd 44.3 for 50,000 miles. New little TSI (1.4/5M) is calc'g about 4 MPG less than der 'vagen.
It all good.......the Buyback amount, the little TSI (well, the cost of diesel - like you say - here in our golden(?) state is higher (much higher) than gas (87).
ez
Summer average: 42 mpg US = 50 mpg Imperial.
Winter average 35 mpg US = 42 mpg Imperial (+/- depending on severity of weather)

The 1.4 is even more impressive from what I've heard.
 

Gary Barnhill

Veteran Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2001
Location
Corona del Mar, CA
TDI
2013 Passat TDI SE SR & Nav
Fuel prices in Corona del Mar, CA

My local discount station:
Regular $3.03
Premium $3.29
Diesel $3.59

Costco Irvine
Regular $2.85
Premium $3.05
Diesel $3.25

The 2/3 supermajority Democrat CA legislature/governor are "punishing" diesel.

My 2018 1.5L Accord average 32 with 14% fuel savings is effectively 37 mpg compared to diesel, which was 39 mpg on 2013 Passat TDI.

You may compute it differently but I think my fuel expenses are so close to TDI ownership that I'm satisfied. Also enjoying $49 oil changes vs $100 at my VW dealer.
 

ezshift5

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2003
Location
West Coast
TDI
2013 JSW TDI (Enroute BB).......2017 Jetta 1.4 turbo 5M ....................
Summer average: 42 mpg US = 50 mpg Imperial.
Winter average 35 mpg US = 42 mpg Imperial (+/- depending on severity of weather)

The 1.4 is even more impressive from what I've heard.


Yes, the 1.4 turbo/5M can turn in impressive MPG numbers.

A recent 150 mile round trip (two lane country highway, 55-60 MPH) to visit my favorite aerial navigator calc'd over 50 MPG,

I was very surprised when I filled up (same station, same pump, first click).

ez
 

BrBa

Member
Joined
Dec 29, 2017
Location
Las Vegas
TDI
2010 Jetta - so long friend!
I was on the fence for a long time, fix vs buyback. The fix route would have been the better financial decision, albeit at the expense of regular time in the shop over the next couple of years with things like brakes, timing belt, suspension coming due, and not knowing if the fix would cause more time in the shop with other repairs. What made the decision for me was driving a new GTI. Fell in love with the adaptive lighting, steering, handling, brakes. I also like the Android Auto and other gadgets. Just a phenominal car, and not terrible mpg for my first tank at 32.5 average vs about 40 mpg average in my TDI. I can live with that.
 

Smashed Ixnay

Veteran Member
Joined
May 7, 2010
Location
Auburndale, FL
TDI
2015 Passat TDI SEL
I also was on the fence for a long time, fix vs buyback. I always had the intentions to keep the car forever. Over the last few months I've had things slowly breaking down on me. Now some of it is regular wear and tear on a car, like ignition switch, wheel hub assembly, cracked leatherette seats, along with regular maintenance like DSG service. I'm at 140k miles and still haven't done the timing belt. With my wheel hub assembly going out on me, I figure I rather not do anymore repairs on the car. I know I'd make money if I kept the car (even after doing timing belt, wheel hub, p2015 intake manifold flap code), but I rather not have to deal with them anytime soon again.

I finally talked some sense into my wife and found a 2015 Passat TDI SEL for under $17k, with the color I preferred. In the end it'll cost me $3.7k, but I get a much newer car, a bigger car, Bluetooth (2010 only worked with phone), extended warranty on lots of engine parts, and still have a powertrain warranty. I know I'll have issues again down the road, but it's nice having a car without all the dings, dents, scratches, cracked seats, etc that our car currently has. I am sad to know what will happen to the car, but I'll still have a TDI.

Tonight I'm uploading the final paperwork we got notarized and will be waiting to hear back from them.
 

ezshift5

Veteran Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2003
Location
West Coast
TDI
2013 JSW TDI (Enroute BB).......2017 Jetta 1.4 turbo 5M ....................
At least you have a TDI (at net <4 grand if I hear you) with the range and torque we all love


ez
 

amafrank

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 17, 2009
Location
USA
TDI
'06 TDi jetta, '09 TDi jetta wagon, 15 TDi GSw
We kept our 2009 sportwagon and don't regret it. The buyback money wouldn't have bought anything near comparable but the fix cash did help reduce our cost on the car. Hard to tell what the mileage has really done since the wife doesn't keep records on fill ups and mileage like I do but from our last long trip I'd say we lost a mile or two per gallon.
We did pick up one of the buy back 2015 GSWs to replace my 2006 Jetta sedan that hit a deer. It was a great car and I'm going to miss it but hopefully the 2015 will make it at least as far.

Frank
 

islandbird

Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Location
Olympic Penninsula, Washington state
TDI
2010 Jetta Sportwagon;Auto Triptronic trans; whitegold with sunroof, iPod dock
Keeping mine. I actually bought it back in August 2016, but figured I'd at least have a few years to enjoy my first diesel. Since then I have opt'd to keep mine, and have taken advantage of others parting their accessories. When VW finds the fix, I'll just reload my Kerma tune back in. Driving it hard and still returning 38mpg, something undoable in anything else.
I bought my 2010 JSW TDI new before it had been fully assembled. Fuel was more than $5 a gallon and as soon as one would get to the showroom it would be bought so we actually bought it before it arrived. I love my car! I bought it for 3 big reasons, 1. 5 star crash rating 2. Fuel economy (I’m averaging 39-40.5 mpg in highway roads mostly). 3. Enough torque for passing etc. 4) seemingly less black smoke and “clean” exhaust in comparison to my 1974 Dasher diesel manual.
I did buy the triptronic transmission option & the panorama roof. my turbo did need replacement at 112,000 but it wasn’t overpriced at the time. Car still ran with the actuator not engaging I thought that was pretty impressive.
im holding out on altering the emissions and fuel delivery systems in my car. I had over 90,000 miles on my car when all this cheating scans ask hit the news. NTSB states on their website the goal is to alter 85% of these cars. So I’m driving a rare old school JSW! I’ll see how long I can pull it off!
 

islandbird

Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Location
Olympic Penninsula, Washington state
TDI
2010 Jetta Sportwagon;Auto Triptronic trans; whitegold with sunroof, iPod dock
If any of you can tell me how the alteration impacts torque, HP and fuel economy? I’ve been told the HP goes down 9 and fuel economy drops 10%. Can anybody corroborate this?
 

Wilkins

Veteran Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Location
British Columbia
TDI
05 Jetta Wagon 5sp, 10 Sportwagen 6MT
If I was you I would NOT get your car’fixed’.
You will lose at least 10% fuel economy, as well as some low end torque. More importantly you will lose reliability.
Many unfixed cars ran hundreds of thousands without DPF problems. Fixed cars tend to crack their DPF’s as soon as something in the engine doesn’t work properly.
 

turbodieseldyke

Veteran Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2010
Location
Free Mustache Rides
TDI
98 jetta
If I was you I would NOT get your car’fixed’.
You will lose at least 10% fuel economy, as well as some low end torque. More importantly you will lose reliability.
Many unfixed cars ran hundreds of thousands without DPF problems. Fixed cars tend to crack their DPF’s as soon as something in the engine doesn’t work properly.
If one still has an unfixed car, and they take it to a dealership for an oil change or whatever, will they just go ahead and ""fix it"" without asking permission?
 
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