VW planning Future EV(s)

IndigoBlueWagon

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I heard about this on BBC News Hour this morning. I can't see the WSJ article but the BBC said that VW thinks electric could be 25% of their sales by 2025. That seems aggressive, but they'll still be selling a lot of ICE cars.

I wonder if this program and its publicity is partly to calm down regulators.
 

nwdiver

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GoFaster

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Politicians can announce things like that, but that doesn't mean it won't end up being watered down or having strings attached.

I have little doubt that EVs are going to rapidly increase in market share in the next few years. But it's starting from a very low level. It's a complete guess how fast the increase will be and to what extent.
 

gearheadgrrrl

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Been 20 years since the first production EVs hit the street, and we've seen a couple new "revoltutionary" battery technologies... And they still ain't got one percent market share!
 

GoFaster

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That's because the cost has been too high. The only good EV on the market is financially beyond reach of most people. The EVs that have a manageable price have a range too short to satisfy most people. All that changes this November ... but it's still not going to drastically change the market share situation, YET, due to production volume constraints. It will change again about a year later when Tesla gets the 3 in production, and others will follow.

It will come.

The 0.6 percent market share that EVs have today is a whole lot more than the market share they had 5 years ago. The Tesla Model S outsells gasoline-powered vehicles in the premium segment (BMW 7-series, Mercedes S-class) in the markets where both are available - even in Europe, where Tesla is a foreign brand and BMW/Mercedes are domestic.
 

SirDeath

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Philosophically, I don't like government ramming EVs down our collective throats! The tin-foil hat guy inside me says that this is a way for the political class to limit movements of the people since ranges are short and charges take time. Given distance able to be covered in a day, ICEs won't be able to be beat for quite some time. But then again I'm a self-described Luddite... and possibly a self-described Huguenot.
 

waltzconmigo

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Hmmm... every month or so another country announces their drop dead date for ICE... wouldn't not making plans for a transition to EV be suicide?

So far the list is The Netherlands, Norway, India and Germany...
not to argue but how does this appear as any sort of trend to you? your list is approximately 0.02% of the planets countries, did this just begin with the change of the calendar year? In three of the listed countries, this would be considered Cadillac problems in much of the rest of the world and the third recognizes that with hoped for growth (economic) that they do not want their future to look like China (parts of) today. we do not know how well/if these plans will even be implemented.
 

nwdiver

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not to argue but how does this appear as any sort of trend to you? your list is approximately 0.02% of the planets countries, did this just begin with the change of the calendar year?
.... because 6 months ago there were zero national pledges to ban ICE in cars and now there are four. One of them happens to be VWs home.

Sometimes the specter of a ban can have a greater effect on manufacturing plans than the actual ban.
 

kjclow

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Hmmm... every month or so another country announces their drop dead date for ICE... wouldn't not making plans for a transition to EV be suicide?

So far the list is The Netherlands, Norway, India and Germany...
I saw yesterday that some of the EU countries are considering an elimination of CO2 emissions from cars. This would be a very strong push towards electrics. Many cities in Europe are already announcing limits on gas and diesel cars allowed in the inner city so that means either a higher reliance on mass transit or more non-ICE cars.
 

waltzconmigo

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Sometimes the specter of a ban can have a greater effect on manufacturing plans than the actual ban.
this statement is clearly true, but to act we as a species are at the tipping point (not that you are) of moving away from ICE seems a bit premature. Nothing in the article you posted contradicts GHG's statement, lots of "would's and if's". The fact remains that without taking advantage of gov't policies Tesla would be a dollar stock if traded on the market. Their future may be bright but they do not currently make money from actually producing cars. first google article....


http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-83663044/
 
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Jeta Life

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After returning home from a day at my local Volkswagen dealer's lot I pondered on the meaning of the bigger picture.

What I saw at the dealer were signs of life. Kind service advisors, friendly sales staff all working on the smile and a friendly mechanic who reminded me of a few lingering items I hope to use the goodwill card on. I drifted from the customer waiting area into the showroom and admired the Passat TSI.

I also saw a nice little red Mark 7 Golf TSI which reminded me a lot of the Golfs from the Eighties. After getting somewhat nostalgic when I spoke to a salesman I knew I would be back there someday. Purchasing a part from the sales guy was my humbling moment because I saw two regular joes there.

Many jobs, many people and that's really all it is.
 

nwdiver

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The fact remains that without taking advantage of gov't policies Tesla would be a dollar stock if traded on the market. Their future may be bright but they do not currently make money from actually producing cars. first google article....


http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-83663044/
That link was behind a paywall;

Tesla received far less than the other OEMs and paid it back far quicker. Tesla receives very little government support. I have no idea how they added up that ~$4.9B in the LA time article since I could only read the headline. Might be from tax breaks they got from moving to Nevada but that's something that any large business gets to attract them to the area. They're projected to bring ~$100B in economic activity to the Reno area over the next 20 years so $4.9B for $100B seems like a pretty sweet deal.

There's a difference between spending more money than you make due to rapid expansion and not making a profit on every car. Volkswagen also posted a net loss last year... are they losing money on every car sold? Of course not.

Tesla would be profitable if they weren't ramping up to make 500k cars per year by ~2019.
 
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n1das

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Philosophically, I don't like government ramming EVs down our collective throats! The tin-foil hat guy inside me says that this is a way for the political class to limit movements of the people since ranges are short and charges take time. Given distance able to be covered in a day, ICEs won't be able to be beat for quite some time. But then again I'm a self-described Luddite... and possibly a self-described Huguenot.
Same here. EVs also opens the door to taxation per mile!
 

n1das

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sayn3ver

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Not for nothing but what do EV bring to the table vs ice?

EV is being powered in the US by coal and natural gas or possibly nuclear fission.
All three of those are still dealing with major ecological disasters.

EV rely on batteries which contain toxic materials

EV rely on an infustructure that is no where near developed enough to be practical.

I live in the North East. Unless something drastic has changed lithium batteries are not fond of the cold.

EV relies on a time based refuel. How does that work in real world applications of day to day living where limited range, unforeseen usage, power outages, or simple forgetfulness to charge your car will result in a stranding.

How does a road trip work? Multi state commute? Emergency evacuation?

Fossil fuels still allow an instantly refillable fuel cell as long as there is a physical supply.

EV may be practical for dense urban areas and those who reside within the city limits. I still don't see it as a real viable alternative to ice any time soon.
 

nwdiver

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EV is being powered in the US by coal and natural gas or possibly nuclear fission.
Nat Gas and nuclear are FAR cleaner... even coal is about break even and things are changing fast... coal generation is down ~30% from last year. The US is adding solar and wind generation ~20x faster than EV consumption.



I just drove from WA to NM in ~2 days in a Tesla... there will be ~2x as many fast chargers in 2 years.

In terms of reliability after a natural disaster gasoline is often harder to find than electricity... especially if you have a roof full of solar panels ;)
 
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GoFaster

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Not for nothing but what do EV bring to the table vs ice?
EV is being powered in the US by coal and natural gas or possibly nuclear fission.
All three of those are still dealing with major ecological disasters.
EV rely on batteries which contain toxic materials
EV rely on an infustructure that is no where near developed enough to be practical.
I live in the North East. Unless something drastic has changed lithium batteries are not fond of the cold.
EV relies on a time based refuel. How does that work in real world applications of day to day living where limited range, unforeseen usage, power outages, or simple forgetfulness to charge your car will result in a stranding.
How does a road trip work? Multi state commute? Emergency evacuation?
Fossil fuels still allow an instantly refillable fuel cell as long as there is a physical supply.
EV may be practical for dense urban areas and those who reside within the city limits. I still don't see it as a real viable alternative to ice any time soon.
EVs will not be all things to all people ... but they don't have to be.

Road trips work by quick-charging stations. If you have a Tesla, the number of those stations is increasing fast. Eventually when there are sufficient numbers of EVs on the roads, businesses such as restaurants and coffee shops and shopping malls will realize that it is to their benefit to put quick-chargers in their parking lots. I'm pretty sure that 10 years from now, there will be enough quick-charging stations that "range anxiety" won't be an issue any more. The process of getting from where we are now, to where we need to be, isn't going to be free of hurdles and bumps and temporary inconveniences.

Re emergency evacuations ... This is potentially even more trouble with combustion engines than it is with electric. Usually what happens is that everyone tries to leave town at the same time and clogs all roads beyond capacity and everyone operates in traffic-jam conditions ... when a combustion engine continues burning fuel and an electric uses next to nothing.

Yes, if the grid power is off, you're not charging your EV (unless it is from your own solar cells ... which can be possible in some cases). But if the grid power is off ... What powers the pump at the gasoline filling station??

The push to build EVs with 200-ish-mile range is because that's where range anxiety stops being an issue for a lot of people. You can have a surprise detour off your planned commute without running out of range. You can forget to charge it one night and there's still enough range to do the average commute that most people actually have.

All these new vehicles have lots of tech built into them and you can link your car to your phone. You can tell from the phone what the charging status is. I'm pretty sure you can set an alarm for if the car is not plugged in and it's 10 PM and it's not being driven, your phone can give you a reminder ...

Cold weather is indeed a problem. BUT ... you can set it to pre-condition the car (and the batteries) while it is still plugged in, giving you a good head start on your commute with the interior and the batteries starting out at optimum temperature, as opposed to -20 C ...

Electricity in my area is around 50% Candu nuclear, 20% hydroelectric, most of the rest natural gas and a small but increasing percentage of wind and solar. No more coal-fired generating stations in Ontario.
 

sayn3ver

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Nat Gas and nuclear are FAR cleaner... even coal is about break even and things are changing fast... coal generation is down ~30% from last year. The US is adding solar and wind generation ~20x faster than EV consumption.



I just drove from WA to NM in ~2 days in a Tesla... there will be ~2x as many fast chargers in 2 years.

In terms of reliability after a natural disaster gasoline is often harder to find than electricity... especially if you have a roof full of solar panels ;)

Ha. Natural gas far cleaner? Nuclear fission far cleaner? What world is that?

Natural gas may burn clean. That's about it. Sourcing natural gas is not a clean or envrio friendly activity. Niether is hydraulic fracturing for traditional oil. But to say natural gas is clean is a huge disservice. Yes, let's lace millions of gallons of perfectly good drinking water with a cocktail of solvents, known carcigens and other unknown and proprietary substances and drill a couple million holes through our drinking water aqufiers and then proceed to pump that toxic cocktail into the ground. Because we all know that thin layer of brittle cement lining those wells is bullet proof in preventing leaks between the water that we drink and irrigate crops with and that chemical mixture they are using to fracture with.

And well the cons for nuclear fission power have been around a long time. But events like Fukushima and now the current leak of the double walled containment vessels at the Hanford site in Washington state are just some recent reminders.

Here in my state of NJ we have oyster Creek power plant slated to be decommissioned in the very near future. It wasn't until a few years ago did they discover an underground leak where the plant had been leaking tritium for an unknown amount of time into the ground and now dealing with contamination of the aquaifer....with their principal remediation technique being dilution... Aka pumping the contaminated well water into barnegate bay to be diluted with the tide to stem the spread of the tritium leak.

As a commercial electrician I'm the most skeptical of these "clean" energy sources. And if commercial construction schedules and "value" engineering are even remotely comparable any industrial or nrc project than I would be worried.
 

nwdiver

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Ha. Natural gas far cleaner? Nuclear fission far cleaner? What world is that?
You need ~1/3 as much natural gas to drive an EV vs ICE... combined cycle plants have a thermal efficiency of ~60%.

12 tons of Uranium fuel will generate ~4,000 GWh. For an EV that's ~1k miles per gram.

The point being that you need less natural gas and an infinitesimal amount of nuclear vs oil to drive the same distance.

Here's an EV with enough fuel to drive >1B miles sitting behind it... to carry that much oil you'd need a supertanker.



Nuclear has some problems but being clean certainly isn't one of them. 12 tons of spent uranium sitting in a concrete cask is far cleaner than burning 30M gallons of oil. Fracking might be bad but burning 3x as much oil is far worse.

And... Solar and Wind are doubling in capacity every 2.5 years....

The advantage of EV over ICE starts with 1 word 'efficiency'. An electric drive train uses ~70% less energy to perform the same amount of work vs ICE. Then there are far cleaner and more abundant fuels than oil that become feasible to generate electricity.
 
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